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@article{Li:2021:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X,
author = {Li, X and Mukandavire, C and Cucunuba, ZM and Londono, SE and Abbas, K and Clapham, HE and Jit, M and Johnson, HL and Papadopoulos, T and Vynnycky, E and Brisson, M and Carter, ED and Clark, A and de, Villiers MJ and Eilertson, K and Ferrari, MJ and Gamkrelidze, I and Gaythorpe, KAM and Grassly, NC and Hallett, TB and Hinsley, W and Jackson, ML and Jean, K and Karachaliou, A and Klepac, P and Lessler, J and Li, X and Moore, SM and Nayagam, S and Duy, MN and Razavi, H and Razavi-Shearer, D and Resch, S and Sanderson, C and Sweet, S and Sy, S and Tam, Y and Tanvir, H and Quan, MT and Trotter, CL and Truelove, S and van, Zandvoort K and Verguet, S and Walker, N and Winter, A and Woodruff, K and Ferguson, NM and Garske, T},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {398--408},
title = {Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X},
volume = {397},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundThe past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.Methods16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort.FindingsWe estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52–88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30–48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36–58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52–66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93–150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39–76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25–52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59–81) reduction in lifetime mortality in t
AU  - Li,X
AU  - Mukandavire,C
AU  - Cucunuba,ZM
AU  - Londono,SE
AU  - Abbas,K
AU  - Clapham,HE
AU  - Jit,M
AU  - Johnson,HL
AU  - Papadopoulos,T
AU  - Vynnycky,E
AU  - Brisson,M
AU  - Carter,ED
AU  - Clark,A
AU  - de,Villiers MJ
AU  - Eilertson,K
AU  - Ferrari,MJ
AU  - Gamkrelidze,I
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Grassly,NC
AU  - Hallett,TB
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Jackson,ML
AU  - Jean,K
AU  - Karachaliou,A
AU  - Klepac,P
AU  - Lessler,J
AU  - Li,X
AU  - Moore,SM
AU  - Nayagam,S
AU  - Duy,MN
AU  - Razavi,H
AU  - Razavi-Shearer,D
AU  - Resch,S
AU  - Sanderson,C
AU  - Sweet,S
AU  - Sy,S
AU  - Tam,Y
AU  - Tanvir,H
AU  - Quan,MT
AU  - Trotter,CL
AU  - Truelove,S
AU  - van,Zandvoort K
AU  - Verguet,S
AU  - Walker,N
AU  - Winter,A
AU  - Woodruff,K
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Garske,T
DO  - 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X
EP  - 408
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0140-6736
SP  - 398
TI  - Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study
T2  - The Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32657-X
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000614227700027&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067362032657X?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/86801
VL  - 397
ER  -

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