Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Neil Ferguson

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Director of the School of Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3296neil.ferguson Website

 
 
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Location

 

508School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Imai:2016:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833,
author = {Imai, N and Dorigatti, I and Cauchemez, S and Ferguson, NM},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
title = {Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833},
volume = {10},
year = {2016}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundDespite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.Methodology/Principle FindingsWe estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.Conclusions/SignificanceAs expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available.
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Cauchemez,S
AU  - Ferguson,NM
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 1935-2735
TI  - Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries
T2  - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004833
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/34518
VL  - 10
ER  -
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