Imperial College London
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Professor Niall Mac Dowell FIChemE FRSC

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Centre for Environmental Policy

Professor of Future Energy Systems
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9298niall Website

 
 
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Location

 

16 Prince's GardensSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Daggash:2019:10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.04.007,
author = {Daggash, HA and Mac, Dowell N},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.04.007},
journal = {International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control},
pages = {174--181},
title = {The implications of delivering the UK’s Paris Agreement commitments on the power sector},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.04.007},
volume = {85},
year = {2019}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Through the 2015 Paris Agreement, the UK committed to keeping average global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C”. Integrated Assessment Models show that this will require extensive greenhouse gas removal (GGR) from the atmosphere. For the EU, it is estimated that 20–70 GtCO2 of cumulative GGR by 2100 is required, all from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Depending on how the burden of GGR is shared, the UK would need to remove 2–6 GtCO2 from the atmosphere. We apply a power systems planning model to determine how the electricity system would need to transition from 2015 to 2100 to meet the UK’s Paris Agreement commitments. We find that until 2050, increased penetration of renewables, interconnection capacity and energy storage, alongside 15–17 GW of CCGT−CCS, is sufficient to stay on the required emissions trajectory. Between 2050 and 2100, however, the deployment of 7–26 GW of BECCS and 2–5 GW of direct air capture and storage (DACS) is crucial to provide the GGR required. A Paris-compliant UK electricity system will require £620–700 billion of capital and operational expenditure by 2100, 3–16% greater than the cost of achieving a decarbonised system. For the upper-bound GGR target, local biomass supply is insufficient, so imports are necessary. By 2100, up to 26% of annual demand is met by imported biomass. Such heavy dependence on imports may raise energy security concerns. Also, should biomass imports not be available in the required quantities, alternative (and more expensive) GGR methods will be necessary thereby increasing the cost of delivering a Paris-compliant system.
AU  - Daggash,HA
AU  - Mac,Dowell N
DO  - 10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.04.007
EP  - 181
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 1750-5836
SP  - 174
TI  - The implications of delivering the UK’s Paris Agreement commitments on the power sector
T2  - International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.04.007
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/70167
VL  - 85
ER  -
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