Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Nimalan Arinaminpathy (Nim Pathy)

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

nim.pathy Website

 
 
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Location

 

Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Arinaminpathy:2016:10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30259-6,
author = {Arinaminpathy, N and Batra, D and Khaparde, S and Vualnam, T and Maheshwari, N and Sharma, L and Nair, SA and Dewan, P},
doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30259-6},
journal = {Lancet Infectious Diseases},
pages = {1255--1260},
title = {The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30259-6},
volume = {16},
year = {2016}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundUnderstanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation.MethodsWe used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013–14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis.FindingsThere were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40–60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2–6 months, this implies that 1·19–5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed.InterpretationIndia's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision.
AU  - Arinaminpathy,N
AU  - Batra,D
AU  - Khaparde,S
AU  - Vualnam,T
AU  - Maheshwari,N
AU  - Sharma,L
AU  - Nair,SA
AU  - Dewan,P
DO  - 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30259-6
EP  - 1260
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 1473-3099
SP  - 1255
TI  - The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data
T2  - Lancet Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30259-6
UR  - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(16)30259-6/fulltext
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/39743
VL  - 16
ER  -
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