Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Nimalan Arinaminpathy (Nim Pathy)

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Mathematical Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

nim.pathy Website

 
 
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Location

 

Praed StreetSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Pandey:2017:10.5588/ijfid.16.0182,
author = {Pandey, S and Chadha, VK and Laxminarayan, R and Arinaminpathy, N},
doi = {10.5588/ijfid.16.0182},
journal = {INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TUBERCULOSIS AND LUNG DISEASE},
pages = {366--374},
title = {Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijfid.16.0182},
volume = {21},
year = {2017}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB).OBJECTIVE: To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India.DESIGN: We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines. We then applied the model to estimate TB incidence in India, stratified by urban and rural settings.RESULTS: Study model estimates show agreement with previous empirical estimates. Applied to India, the model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.8 per 100 000 population (95%CI 56.8–156.3). Results show differences in urban and rural TB: while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings.CONCLUSIONS: Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used.
AU  - Pandey,S
AU  - Chadha,VK
AU  - Laxminarayan,R
AU  - Arinaminpathy,N
DO  - 10.5588/ijfid.16.0182
EP  - 374
PY  - 2017///
SN  - 1027-3719
SP  - 366
TI  - Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: a mathematical modeling approach
T2  - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TUBERCULOSIS AND LUNG DISEASE
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijfid.16.0182
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000397481900004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/47934
VL  - 21
ER  -
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