Publications
23 results found
Naderi H, Abbara A, Viviano A, et al., 2023, Re-emphasising the importance of histopathological diagnosis in suspected bacterial endocarditis, PERFUSION-UK, Vol: 38, Pages: 197-199, ISSN: 0267-6591
Asaria P, Bennett J, Elliott P, et al., 2022, Contributions of event rates, pre-hospital deaths and hospital case fatality to variations in myocardial infarction mortality in 326 districts in England: spatial analysis of linked hospitalisation and mortality data, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 7, Pages: e813-e824, ISSN: 2468-2667
Background: Myocardial infarction (MI) mortality varies substantially within high-income countries. There is limited guidance on what interventions – primary and secondary prevention and/or improving care pathways and quality – can reduce and equalise MI mortality. Our aimwas to understand the contribution of incidence (event rate), pre-hospital deaths and hospital case-fatality, to how MI mortality varies within England.Methods: We used linked data on hospitalisation and deaths from 2015-2018 with geographical identifiers to estimate MI death and event rates, pre-hospital deaths and hospital case fatality for men and women aged 45 years and older in 326 districts in England. Data were analysed in a Bayesian spatial model that accounted for similarities and differences inspatial patterns of fatal and non-fatal MI. Results: The 99th to 1st percentile ratio of age-standardised MI death rate was 2.63 (95% credible interval 2.45-2.83) in women and 2.56 (2.37-2.76) in men across districts, with death rate highest in north of England. The main contributor to this variation was MI event rate, with a 99th to 1st percentile ratio of 2.55 (2.39-2.72) (women) and 2.17 (2.08-2.27) (men) across districts. Pre-hospital mortality was greater than hospital case fatality in every district. Prehospital mortality had a 99th to 1st percentile ratio 1.60 (1.50-1.70) in women and 1.75 (1.66-1.86) in men across districts and made a greater contribution to case-fatality variation thanhospital case fatality which had a 99th to 1st percentile ratio of 1.39 (1.29-1.49) (women) and1.49 (1.39-1.60) (men). The contribution of case fatality to variation in deaths across districtswas largest in middle ages. Pre-hospital mortality was slightly higher in men than women inmost districts and age groups, whereas hospital case fatality was higher in women in virtuallyall districts at ages up to and including 65-74 years; after this age, it became similar betweenthe sexes.3Interpretation: Mos
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, et al., 2022, Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination [version 2; peer review: 2 approved], Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2398-502X
Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective trea
Naderi H, Robinson S, Swaans MJ, et al., 2021, Adapting the role of handheld echocardiography during the COVID-19 pandemic: A practical guide, PERFUSION-UK, Vol: 36, Pages: 547-558, ISSN: 0267-6591
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- Citations: 1
Hartley A, El-Sayed A, Abbara A, et al., 2021, Restricted use of echocardiography in suspected endocarditis during COVID-19 lockdown: a multidisciplinary team approach, Cardiology Research and Practice, Vol: 2021, Pages: 1-4, ISSN: 2090-0597
Background:Infective endocarditis (IE) is challenging to manage in the COVID-19 lockdown climate, in part given its reliance on echocardiography for diagnosis and management, and the associated virus transmission risks to patients and healthcare workers. This study assesses utilisation of the endocarditis team (ET) in limiting routine echocardiography, especially transoesophageal echocardiography (TOE), in patients with suspected IE, and explores the effect on clinical outcomes.Methods:All patients discussed at the ET meeting at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust during the first lockdown in the UK (23rd March – 8th July 2020) were prospectively included and analysed in this observational study.Results:In total, 38 patients were referred for ET review (71% male, median age 54 [interquartile range 48, 65.5] years). At the time of ET discussion, 21% had no echo imaging, 16% had point-of-care ultrasound only and 63% had formal TTE. In total, only 16% underwent TOE. The ability of echocardiography, in those where it was performed, to affect IE diagnosis according to the Modified Duke Criteria was significant (p=0.0099), however, sensitivity was not affected. All-cause mortality was 17% at 30-days and 25% at 12-months from ET discussion in those with confirmed IE.Conclusion:Limiting echocardiography in patients with a low pre-test probability (not probable or definite IE according to the Modified Duke Criteria) did not affect the diagnostic ability of the Modified Duke Criteria to rule out IE in this small study. Moreover, restricting non-essential echocardiography, and importantly TOE, in patients with suspected IE through use of the ET did not impact all-cause mortality.
Mikhail G, Khawaja SA, Mohan P, et al., 2021, COVID-19 and its impact on the cardiovascular system, Open Heart, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2053-3624
Objectives: The clinical impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has varied across countries with varying cardiovascular manifestations. We review the cardiac presentations, in-hospital outcomes and development of cardiovascular complications in the initial cohort of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, United Kingdom.Methods: We retrospectively analysed 498 COVID-19 positive adult admissions to our institute from 7th March to 7th April 2020. Patient data was collected for baseline demographics, co-morbidities and in-hospital outcomes, especially relating to cardiovascular intervention.Results:Mean age was 67.4±16.1 years and 62.2%(n=310) were male. 64.1%(n=319) of our cohort had underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) with 53.4%(n=266) having hypertension. 43.2%(n=215) developed acute myocardial injury. Mortality was significantly increased in those patients with myocardial injury (47.4% vs 18.4%,p<0.001). Only 4 COVID-19 patients had invasive coronary angiography,2 underwent percutaneous coronary intervention and 1 required a permanent pacemaker implantation. 7.0%(n=35) of patients had an inpatient echocardiogram. Acute myocardial injury (OR 2.39,1.31-4.40,p=0.005) and history of hypertension (OR 1.88 ,1.01-3.55,p=0.049) approximately doubled the odds of in-hospital mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19 after other variables had been controlled for.Conclusion:Hypertension, pre-existing CVD and acute myocardial injury were associated with increased in-hospital mortality in our cohort of COVID-19 patients. However, only a low number of patients required invasive cardiac intervention.
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, et al., 2021, Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries (vol 26, pg 1919, 2020), NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 27, Pages: 562-562, ISSN: 1078-8956
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- Citations: 5
Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, et al., 2020, Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries, Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 1919-1928, ISSN: 1078-8956
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.
Moledina S, Shanmuganathan M, Baston V, et al., 2020, UTILITY OF CARDIAC MRI IN PREDICTION OF ACUTE RIGHT VENTRICULAR FAILURE AFTER LVAD IMPLANTATION, Conference of American-College-of-Cardiology (ACC) / World Congress of Cardiology (WCC), Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: 1826-1826, ISSN: 0735-1097
Sarri G, Halim K, McCurry M, et al., 2019, Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in lung transplant assessment: the clinical significance of right ventricular-pulmonary arterial coupling and right ventricular trabecular complexity, Congress of the European-Society-of-Cardiology (ESC) / World Congress of Cardiology, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: 205-205, ISSN: 0195-668X
Asaria P, Elliott P, Douglass M, et al., 2017, Acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions and deaths in England: a national follow-back and follow-forward record-linkage study, Lancet Public Health, Vol: 2, Pages: e191-e201, ISSN: 2468-2667
Background Little information is available on how primary and comorbid acute myocardial infarction contribute to the mortality burden of acute myocardial infarction, the share of these deaths that occur during or after a hospital admission, and the reasons for hospital admission of those who died from acute myocardial infarction. Our aim was to fill in these gaps in the knowledge about deaths and hospital admissions due to acute myocardial infarction. Methods We used individually linked national hospital admission and mortality data for England from 2006 to 2010 to identify all primary and comorbid diagnoses of acute myocardial infarction during hospital stay and their associated fatality rates (during or within 28 days of being in hospital). Data were obtained from the UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit and supplied by the Health and Social Care Information Centre (now NHS Digital) and the Office of National Statistics. We calculated event rates (reported as per 100 000 population for relevant age and sex groups) and case-fatality rate for primary acute myocardial infarction diagnosed during the first physician encounter or during subsequent encounters, and acute myocardial infarction diagnosed only as a comorbidity. We also calculated what proportion of deaths from acute myocardial infarction occurred in people who had been in hospital on or within the 28 days preceding death, and whether acute myocardial infarction was one of the recorded diagnoses in such admissions. Findings Acute myocardial infarction was diagnosed in the first physician encounter in 307 496 (69%) of 446 744 admissions with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, in the second or later physician encounter in 52 374 (12%) admissions, and recorded only as a comorbidity in 86 874 (19%) admissions. Patients with comorbid diagnoses of acute myocardial infarction had two to three times the case-fatality rate of patients in whom acute myocardial infarction was a primary diagnosis. 135 950 death
Grey C, Jackson R, Schmidt M, et al., 2017, One in four major ischaemic heart disease events are fatal and 60% are pre-hospital deaths: a national data-linkage study (ANZACS-QI 8), EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL, Vol: 38, Pages: 172-180, ISSN: 0195-668X
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- Citations: 27
Fontana M, Asaria P, Moraldo M, et al., 2014, Patient-accessible tool for shared decision making in cardiovascular primary prevention balancing longevity benefits against medication disutility, Circulation, Vol: 129, Pages: 2539-2546, ISSN: 0009-7322
Background—Primary prevention guidelines focus on risk, often assuming negligible aversion to medication, yet most patients discontinue primary prevention statins within 3 years. We quantify real-world distribution of medication disutility and separately calculate the average utilities for a range of risk strata.Method and Results—We randomly sampled 360 members of the general public in London. Medication aversion was quantified as the gain in lifespan required by each individual to offset the inconvenience (disutility) of taking an idealized daily preventative tablet. In parallel, we constructed tables of expected gain in lifespan (utility) from initiating statin therapy for each age group, sex, and cardiovascular risk profile in the population. This allowed comparison of the widths of the distributions of medication disutility and of group-average expectation of longevity gain. Observed medication disutility ranged from 1 day to >10 years of life being required by subjects (median, 6 months; interquartile range, 1–36 months) to make daily preventative therapy worthwhile. Average expected longevity benefit from statins at ages ≥50 years ranges from 3.6 months (low-risk women) to 24.3 months (high-risk men).Conclusion—We can no longer assume that medication disutility is almost zero. Over one-quarter of subjects had disutility exceeding the group-average longevity gain from statins expected even for the highest-risk (ie, highest-gain) group. Future primary prevention studies might explore medication disutility in larger populations. Patients may differ more in disutility than in prospectively definable utility (which provides only group-average estimates). Consultations could be enriched by assessing disutility and exploring its reasons.
Nowbar AN, Howard JP, Finegold JA, et al., 2014, 2014 Global geographic analysis of mortality from ischaemic heart disease by country, age and income: Statistics from World Health Organisation and United Nations, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 174, Pages: 293-298, ISSN: 0167-5273
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- Citations: 105
Cook C, Cole G, Asaria P, et al., 2014, The annual global economic burden of heart failure, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 171, Pages: 368-376, ISSN: 0167-5273
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- Citations: 537
Finegold JA, Asaria P, Francis DP, 2013, Mortality from ischaemic heart disease by country, region, and age: Statistics from World Health Organisation and United Nations, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 168, Pages: 934-945, ISSN: 0167-5273
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- Citations: 591
Di Cesare M, Khang Y-H, Asaria P, et al., 2013, Inequalities in non-communicable diseases and effective responses, LANCET, Vol: 381, Pages: 585-597, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 421
Asaria P, Fortunato L, Fecht D, et al., 2012, Trends and inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality across 7932 English electoral wards, 1982-2006: Bayesian spatial analysis, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 41, Pages: 1737-1749, ISSN: 1464-3685
Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has more than halved in England since the 1980s, but there are few data on small-area trends. We estimated CVD mortality by ward in 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, and examined trends in relation to starting mortality, region and community deprivation.Methods We analysed CVD death rates using a Bayesian spatial technique for all 7932 English electoral wards in consecutive 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, separately for men and women aged 30–64 years and ≥65 years.Results Age-standardized CVD mortality declined in the majority of wards, but increased in 186 wards for women aged ≥65 years. The decline was larger where starting mortality had been higher. When grouped by deprivation quintile, absolute inequality between most- and least-deprived wards narrowed over time in those aged 30–64 years, but increased in older adults; relative inequalities worsened in all four age–sex groups. Wards with high CVD mortality in 2002–06 fell into two groups: those in and around large metropolitan cities in northern England that started with high mortality in 1982–86 and could not ‘catch up’, despite impressive declines, and those that started with average or low mortality in the 1980s but ‘fell behind’ because of small mortality reductions.Conclusions Improving population health and reducing health inequalities should be treated as related policy and measurement goals. Ongoing analysis of mortality by small area is essential to monitor local effects on health and health inequalities of the public health and healthcare systems.
Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Horton R, et al., 2011, Priority actions for the non-communicable disease crisis, LANCET, Vol: 377, Pages: 1438-1447, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 1146
Asaria P, Francis DP, 2011, Heart Forecast for cardiovascular risk assessment, HEART, Vol: 97, Pages: 173-174, ISSN: 1355-6037
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- Citations: 2
Ferenczi EA, Asaria P, Hughes AD, et al., 2010, Can a Statin Neutralize the Cardiovascular Risk of Unhealthy Dietary Choices?, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 106, Pages: 587-592, ISSN: 0002-9149
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- Citations: 15
Asaria P, Beaglehole R, Chisholm D, et al., 2010, Chronic disease prevention: the importance of calls to action., Int J Epidemiol, Vol: 39, Pages: 309-310
Asaria P, Chisholm D, Mathers C, et al., 2007, Chronic diseases 3 - Chronic disease prevention: health effects and financial costs of strategies to reduce salt intake and control tobacco use, LANCET, Vol: 370, Pages: 2044-2053, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 420
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