Imperial College London

ProfessorPaulAylin

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3334p.aylin Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Claire Egan +44 (0)20 7594 0910

 
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Location

 

Dr. Foster Unit3 Dorset Rise, London EC4Y 8EN

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

353 results found

Vollmer MAC, Radhakrishnan S, Kont MD, Flaxman S, Bhatt SJ, Costelloe C, Honeyford K, Aylin P, Cooke G, Redhead J, Sanders A, Mangan H, White PJ, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Perez Guzman PN, Nayagam Set al., 2021, The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study, BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1472-6963

Background Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surgein demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergencydepartment (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.Methods This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial CollegeHealthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving averagetime-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trendswere compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (whenEngland implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. Wecompared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, wecompared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT duringthe present year to the historic 5-year average.Results ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the firstlockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broadertrends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50%for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst thoseaged <65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) andnot correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance frompostcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crudemortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p=0.19).Conclusions Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give anindication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we findthat a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patientswithout COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The ext

Journal article

Dewa L, Kalniunas A, Orleans-Foli S, Pappa S, Aylin Pet al., 2021, Detecting signs of deterioration in young patients with serious mental illness: a systematic review, Systematic Reviews, Vol: 10, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2046-4053

BackgroundSerious mental illnesses (SMI) such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder first develop between ages 14-25. Once diagnosed, young peoples’ health can deteriorate, and it is therefore vital to detect this early to prevent severe outcomes including hospitalisations and deaths by suicide. The main study aim is to describe and discuss observational studies that examine signs of deterioration in young patients with SMI. MethodsA systematic review guided by the published protocol was conducted. Cumulative Index to Nursing and allied Health Literature (CINAHL), MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC) and Web of Science were searched against pre-defined criteria until March 1st 2021. Observational studies were extracted according to design, country, participant, indicator, outcome and main finding categories. Quality was assessed independently using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS). ResultsOf the 15788 publications identified, 5 studies were included and subjected to narrative synthesis. Two indicators of mental health deterioration were identified: cognitive functioning (decline, worsening and poor school/academic performance) and expressed emotion status. Indicators revealed mixed views on predicting deterioration. Worsening cognitive functioning and expressed emotion status significantly predicted medication non-adherence and relapse respectively. However, a decline in cognitive functioning (poor academic performance) was not found to significantly correlate to deaths by suicide. Study quality was mostly poor and associations between indicators and varied outcomes were weak. The heterogeneous nature of the data made comparisons difficult and did not allow for further statistical analysis. ConclusionTo our knowledge, this is the first review of observational studies to identify indicators of deterioration in young patients with SMI. Worsening cognitive functioning and expressed emotion status could indicate non-adherence

Journal article

Glampson B, Brittain J, Kaura A, Mulla A, Mercuri L, Brett S, Aylin P, tessa S, goodman I, Redhead J, kavitha S, Mayer Eet al., 2021, North West London Covid-19 Vaccination Programme: Real-world evidence for Vaccine uptake and effectiveness: Retrospective Cohort Study, JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 2369-2960

Background:On March 11, 2020 the World Health Organisation declared the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) syndrome, as a pandemic. The UK mass vaccination programme commenced on December 08, 2020 vaccinating groups of the population deemed to be most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection.Objective:To assess the early vaccine administration coverage and outcome data across an integrated care system in North West London (NWL), leveraging a unique population-level care dataset. Vaccine effectiveness of a single dose of the Oxford/Astrazeneca and Pfizer/BioNtech vaccines were compared.Methods:A retrospective cohort study identified 2,183,939 individuals eligible for COVID-19 vaccination between December 08, 2020 and February 24, 2021 within a primary, secondary and community care integrated care dataset. These data were used to assess vaccination hesitancy across ethnicity, gender and socio-economic deprivation measures (Pearson Product-Moment Correlations); investigated COVID-19 transmission related to vaccination hubs; and assessed the early effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination (after a single dose) using time to event analyses with multivariable Cox regression analysis to investigate if vaccination independently predicted positive SARS-CoV-2 in those vaccinated compared to those unvaccinated.Results: In the study 5.88% (24,332/413,919) of individuals declined and did not receive a vaccination. Black or Black British individuals had the highest rate of declining a vaccine at 16.14% (4,337/26,870). There was a strong negative association between socio-economic deprivation and rate of declining vaccination (r=-0.94, P=.002) with 13.5% (1980/14571) of individuals declining vaccination in the most deprived areas compared to 0.98% (869/9609) in the least. In the first six days after vaccination 344 of 389587 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (0.09%). The rate increased to 0.13% (525/389,243)

Journal article

Cecil E, Dewa L, Ma R, Majeed F, Aylin Pet al., 2021, General practitioner and nurse practitioner attitudes towards electronic reminders in primary care: A qualitative analysis, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2044-6055

Objectives Reminders in primary care administrative systems aim to help clinicians provide evidence-based care, prescribe safely and save money. However, increased use of reminders can lead to alert fatigue. Our study aimed to assess general practitioners’ (GPs) and nurse practitioners’ (NPs) views on electronic reminders in primary care.Design A qualitative analysis using semistructured interviews.Setting and participants Fifteen GPs and NP based in general practices located in North-West London and Yorkshire, England.Methods We collected data on participants’ views on: (1) perceptions of the value of information provided; (2) reminder-related behaviours and (3) how to improve reminders. We carried out a thematic analysis.Results Participants were familiar with reminders in their clinical systems and felt many were important to support their clinical work. However, participants reported, on average, 70% of reminders were ignored. Four major themes emerged: (1) reaction to a reminder, which was mixed and varied by situation. (2) Factors influencing the decision to act on reminders, often related to experience, consultation styles and interests of participants. Time constraints, alert design, inappropriate presentation and litigation were also factors. (3) Negative consequences of using reminders were increased workload or costs and compromising GP and NPs behaviour. (4) Factors relating to improving users’ engagement with reminders were prevention of unnecessary reminders through data linkage across healthcare administrative systems or the development of more intelligent algorithms. Participants felt training was vital to effectively manage reminders.Conclusions GPs and NPs believe reminders are useful in supporting the provision of good quality patient care. Improving GPs and NPs’ engagement with reminders centres on further developing their relevance to their clinical practice, which is personalised, considers cognitive workflow and s

Journal article

Glampson B, Brittain J, Kaura A, Mulla A, Mercuri L, Brett SJ, Aylin P, Sandall T, Goodman I, Redhead J, Saravanakumar K, Mayer EKet al., 2021, Assessing COVID-19 vaccine uptake and effectiveness through the north west London vaccination program: retrospective cohort study, Publisher: JMIR Publications

Background:Real world data supporting the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination strategy in the UK population is needed to guide health policy. This real-word data-driven evidence study of the UK COVID-19 Vaccination Programme in the Northwest London (NWL) population used a unique dataset established as part of the Gold Command Covid-19 response in NWL (iCARE https://imperialbrc.nihr.ac.uk/facilities/icare/), which included the pre-established Whole System Integrated Care (WSIC) data collated for the purposes of population health in the sector.Objective:To assess the early vaccine administration coverage and vaccine effectiveness and outcome data across an integrated care system of eight CCGs leveraging a unique population-level care datasetMethods:Design - Retrospective cohort study. Setting - Individuals eligible for COVID 19 vaccination in North West London based on linked primary and secondary care data. Participants - 2,183,939 individuals eligible for COVID 19 vaccinationResults:During the NWL vaccine programme study time period 5.88% of individuals declined and did not receive a vaccination. Black or black British individuals had the highest rate of declining a vaccine at 16.14% (4,337). There was a strong negative association between deprivation and rate of declining vaccination (r=-0.94, p<0.01) with 13.5% of individuals declining vaccination in the most deprived postcodes compared to 0.98% in the least deprived postcodes. In the first six days after vaccination 344 of 389587 individuals tested positive for COVID-19 (0.09%). The rate increased to 0.13% (525/389,243) between days 7 and 13, before then gradually falling week on week. At 28 days post vaccination there was a 74% (HR 0.26 (0.19-0.35)) and 78% (HR 0.22 (0.18-0.27)) reduction in risk of testing positive for COVID -19 for individuals that received the Oxford/Astrazeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines respectively, when compared with unvaccinated individuals. After vaccination very low rates of

Working paper

Bottle A, Faitna P, Aylin PP, 2021, Patient-level and hospital-level variation and related time trends in COVID-19 case fatality rates during the first pandemic wave in England: multilevel modelling analysis of routine data., BMJ Qual Saf

BACKGROUND: A report suggesting large between-hospital variations in mortality after admission for COVID-19 in England attracted much media attention but used crude rates. We aimed to quantify these variations between hospitals and over time during England's first wave (March to July 2020) and assess available patient-level and hospital-level predictors to explain those variations. METHODS: We used administrative data for England, augmented by hospital-level information. Admissions were extracted with COVID-19 codes. In-hospital death was the primary outcome. Risk-adjusted mortality ratios (standardised mortality ratios) and interhospital variation were calculated using multilevel logistic regression. Early-wave (March to April) and late-wave (May to July) periods were compared. RESULTS: 74 781 admissions had a primary diagnosis of COVID-19, with 21 984 in-hospital deaths (29.4%); the 30-day total mortality rate was 28.8%. The crude in-hospital death rate fell in all ages and overall from 32.9% in March to 13.4% in July. Patient-level predictors included age, male gender, non-white ethnic group (early period only) and several comorbidities (obesity early period only). The only significant hospital-level predictor was daily COVID-19 admissions in the late period; we did not find a relation with staff absences for COVID-19, mechanical ventilation bed occupancies, total bed occupancies or bed occupancies for COVID-19 admissions in either period. Just 4 (3%) and 2 (2%) hospitals were high, and 5 (4%) and 0 hospitals were low funnel plot mortality outliers at 3 SD for early and late periods, respectively, after risk adjustment. We found no strong correlation between early and late hospital-level mortality (r=0.17, p=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: There was modest variation in mortality following admission for COVID-19 between English hospitals after adjustment for risk and random variation, in marked contrast to early media reports. Early-period mortality did not pred

Journal article

Deputy M, Rao C, Worley G, Balinskaite V, Bottle A, Aylin P, Burns EM, Faiz Oet al., 2021, Effect of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality related to high-risk emergency and major elective surgery, BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Vol: 108, Pages: 754-759, ISSN: 0007-1323

Journal article

Cecil E, Bottle A, Majeed A, Aylin Pet al., 2021, Factors associated with potentially missed acute deterioration in primary care, British Journal of General Practice, Vol: 24/6/21, Pages: e547-e554, ISSN: 0960-1643

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the majority of primary care contacts are uncomplicated. However, safety incidents resulting in patient harm occur, such as failure to recognise a patient's deterioration in health. AIM: We aimed to determine patient and healthcare factors associated with potentially missed deterioration. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cohort of patients registered with English CPRD general practices between 01-04-2014 and 31-12-2017 with linked hospital data. METHODS: We defined a potentially missed deterioration as a patient, seen in primary care by a GP in the three days before hospitalisation, having a self-referred admission. We used generalised estimating equations to investigate factors associated with odds of a self-referred admission. We investigated all diagnoses and subsets of commonly reported missed conditions. RESULTS: There were 116,097 patients who contacted a GP three days prior to an emergency admission. Patients with sepsis or urinary tract infections were more likely to self-refer, adjusted odds ratio 1.10 95%CI(1.02-1.19) and 1.09 (1.04-1.14) respectively. GP appointment durations were associated with self-referral. On average, a 5-minute increase resulted in 10% decrease in odds of self-referred admissions, 0.90 (0.89-0.91). Patients having a telephone (compared with face-to-face) consultation 1.13 (1.09-1.16), previous health service use and health status were also associated with self-referred admission. CONCLUSIONS: Differentiating deterioration from self-limiting conditions can be difficult for clinicians, particularly in patients with sepsis, UTI or with long-term conditions. Our findings supports the call for longer GP consultations and cautions reliance on telephone consultations in primary care; however, research is needed to understand the underlying mechanisms.

Journal article

Balinskaite V, Aylin P, Bottle R, 2021, Assessing the impact of a shadowing programme on in-hospital mortality following trainee doctors’ changeover, BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 1472-6963

BackgroundTo assess the impact on seven-day in-hospital mortality following the introduction in 2012 of a shadowing programme for new UK medical graduates requiring them to observe the doctor they are replacing for at least 4 days before starting work.MethodsData on emergency admissions were derived from Hospital Episode Statistics between 2003 and 2019. A generalised estimating equation model was used to examine whether the introduction of the programme was associated with a change in mortality.ResultsThere were 644,018 emergency admissions, of which 1.8% (7612) ended in death in hospital within a week following the admission. Throughout the study period, there was an annual increase in the number of emergency admissions during July and August, though in-hospital mortality rates declined. The generalised estimating equation analysis found no significant change in the odds of death within 7 days after admission for patients admitted on the first Wednesday in August compared with patients admitted on the last Wednesday in July (OR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.94–1.13, p = 0.53). Furthermore, there was no significant change observed for any clinical diagnosis category following the introduction of the shadowing programme.ConclusionThere was a rising trend in the number of emergency admissions over the study period, though mortality was decreasing. We found no significant association between the introduction of shadowing programme and in-hospital mortality; however, lack of power means that we cannot rule out a small effect on mortality. There are other outcomes that might have changed but were not examined in this study.

Journal article

Bottle R, Faitna P, Aylin P, Cowie Met al., 2021, Five-year outcomes following left ventricular assist device implantation in England, Open Heart, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-6, ISSN: 2053-3624

Objective Implant rates of mechanical circulatory supports such as left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) have steadily increased in the last decade. We assessed the utility of administrative data to provide information on hospital use and outcomes.Methods Using 2 years of national hospital administrative data for England linked to the death register, we identified all patients with an LVAD and extracted hospital activity for 5 years before and after the LVAD implantation date.Results In the two index years April 2011 to March 2013, 157 patients had an LVAD implanted. The mean age was 50.9 (SD 15.4), and 78.3% were men. After 5 years, 92 (58.6%) had died; the recorded cause of death was noncardiovascular in 67.4%. 42 (26.8%) patients received a heart±lung transplantation. Compared with the 12 months before implantation, the 12 months after but not including the month of implantation saw falls in total inpatient and day case admissions, a fall in admissions for heart failure (HF), a rise in non-HF admissions, a fall in emergency department visits not ending in admission and a rise in outpatient appointments (all per patient at risk). Postimplantation complications were common in the subsequent 5 years: 26.1% had a stroke, 23.6% had a device infection and 13.4% had a new LVAD implanted.Conclusions Despite patients’ young age, their mortality is high and their hospital use and complications are common in the 5 years following LVAD implantation. Administrative data provide important information on resource use in this patient group.

Journal article

Dewa L, Lawrence-Jones A, Kalorkoti C, Jaques J, Pickles K, Lavelle M, Pappa S, Aylin Pet al., 2021, Reflections, impact and recommendations of a co-produced qualitative study with young people who have experience of mental health difficulties, Health Expectations, Vol: 24, Pages: 134-146, ISSN: 1369-6513

BackgroundThere is limited evidence of genuine equal partnership where power is shared with young people with mental health difficulties throughout all research stages, particularly in data collection and analysis.ObjectiveTo describe how our qualitative study, exploring young peoples’ perceptions on the feasibility of using technology to detect mental health deterioration, was co-produced using principles of co-production, whilst reflecting on impact, challenges and recommendations.MethodsYoung people with experience of mental health difficulties were appointed and then worked with researchers throughout all research stages. The study was evaluated against the five principles of co-production. Reflections from researchers and young people were collected throughout.ResultsSeven young people formed an initial Young People's Advisory Group (YPAG); three became co-researchers. Reflection was key throughout the process. Sharing power became easier and more evident as trust, confidence and mutual respect grew over time, particularly after a safe space was established. The safe space was crucial for open discussions, and our WhatsApp group enabled continual communication, support and shared decision-making. The resulting co-produced topic guide, coding framework, thematic map, papers and presentations demonstrated significant impact.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first qualitative mental health study to be co-produced using the principles of co-production. Our rigorous assessment can be utilized as an informative document to help others to produce meaningful co-produced future research. Although co-production takes time, it makes significant impact to the research, researchers and co-researchers. Flexible funding for spontaneous suggestions from co-researchers and more time for interview training is recommended.

Journal article

Bottle A, Faitna P, Aylin P, Cowie MRet al., 2021, Five-year survival and use of hospital services following ICD and CRT implantation: comparing real-world data with RCTs, ESC HEART FAILURE, Vol: 8, Pages: 2438-2447, ISSN: 2055-5822

Journal article

Zhu N, Aylin P, Rawson T, Gilchrist M, Majeed A, Holmes Aet al., 2021, Investigating the impact of COVID-19 on primary care antibiotic prescribing in North West London across two epidemic waves, Clinical Microbiology and Infection, Vol: 27, Pages: 762-768, ISSN: 1198-743X

ObjectivesWe investigated the impact of COVID-19 and national pandemic response on primary care antibiotic prescribing in London.MethodsIndividual prescribing records between 2015 and 2020 for 2 million residents in north west London were analysed. Prescribing records were linked to SARS-CoV-2 test results. Prescribing volumes, in total, and stratified by patient characteristics, antibiotic class and AWaRe classification, were investigated. Interrupted time series analysis was performed to detect measurable change in the trend of prescribing volume since the national lockdown in March 2020, immediately before the first COVID-19 peak in London.ResultsRecords covering 366 059 patients, 730 001 antibiotic items and 848 201 SARS-CoV-2 tests between January and November 2020 were analysed. Before March 2020, there was a background downward trend (decreasing by 584 items/month) in primary care antibiotic prescribing. This reduction rate accelerated to 3504 items/month from March 2020. This rate of decrease was sustained beyond the initial peak, continuing into winter and the second peak. Despite an overall reduction in prescribing volume, co-amoxiclav, a broad-spectrum “Access” antibiotic, prescribing rose by 70.1% in patients aged 50 and older from February to April. Commonly prescribed antibiotics within 14 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were amoxicillin (863/2474, 34.9%) and doxycycline (678/2474, 27.4%). This aligned with national guidelines on management of community pneumonia of unclear cause. The proportion of “Watch” antibiotics used decreased during the peak in COVID-19.DiscussionA sustained reduction in community antibiotic prescribing has been observed since the first lockdown. Investigation of community-onset infectious diseases and potential unintended consequences of reduced prescribing is urgently needed.

Journal article

Christen P, D'Aeth J, Lochen A, McCabe R, Rizmie D, Schmit N, Nayagam S, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle A, Perez Guzman P, Donnelly C, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White P, Hauck Ket al., 2021, The J-IDEA pandemic planner: a framework for implementing hospital provision interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, Medical Care, Vol: 59, Pages: 371-378, ISSN: 0025-7079

Background : Planning for extreme surges in demand for hospital care of patientsrequiring urgent life-saving treatment for COVID-19, whilst retaining capacity for otheremergency conditions, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by healthcareproviders and policymakers during the pandemic. Health systems must be wellpreparedto cope with large and sudden changes in demand by implementinginterventions to ensure adequate access to care. We developed the first planning toolfor the COVID-19 pandemic to account for how hospital provision interventions (suchas cancelling elective surgery, setting up field hospitals, or hiring retired staff) will affectthe capacity of hospitals to provide life-saving care.Methods : We conducted a review of interventions implemented or considered in 12 European countries in March-April 2020, an evaluation of their impact on capacity, anda review of key parameters in the care of COVID-19 patients. This information wasused to develop a planner capable of estimating the impact of specific interventions ondoctors, nurses, beds and respiratory support equipment. We applied this to ascenario-based case study of one intervention, the set-up of field hospitals in England,under varying levels of COVID-19 patients.Results : The J-IDEA pandemic planner is a hospital planning tool that allows hospitaladministrators, policymakers and other decision-makers to calculate the amount ofcapacity in terms of beds, staff and crucial medical equipment obtained byimplementing the interventions. Flexible assumptions on baseline capacity, the numberof hospitalisations, staff-to-beds ratios, and staff absences due to COVID-19 make theplanner adaptable to multiple settings. The results of the case study show that whilefield hospitals alleviate the burden on the number of beds available, this intervention isfutile unless the deficit of critical care nurses is addressed first.Discussion : The tool supports decision-makers in delivering a fast and effectiveresponse to

Journal article

Glampson B, Brittain J, Kaura A, Mulla A, Mercuri L, Brett S, Aylin P, Sandall T, Goodman I, Redhead J, Saravanakumar K, Mayer EKet al., 2021, North West London Covid-19 vaccination programme: real-world evidence for vaccine uptake and effectiveness, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Objective To assess the early vaccine administration coverage and vaccine effectiveness and outcome data across an integrated care system of eight CCGs leveraging a unique population-level care datasetDesign Retrospective cohort study.Setting Individuals eligible for COVID 19 vaccination in North West London based on linked primary and secondary care data.Participants 2,183,939 individuals eligible for COVID 19 vaccinationResults During the NWL vaccine programme study time period 5.88% of individuals declined and did not receive a vaccination. Black or black British individuals had the highest rate of declining a vaccine at 16.14% (4,337). There was a strong negative association between deprivation and rate of declining vaccination (r=-0.94, p<0.01) with 13.5% of individuals declining vaccination in the most deprived postcodes compared to 0.98% in the least deprived postcodes.In the first six days after vaccination 344 of 389587 individuals tested positive for COVID-19 (0.09%). The rate increased to 0.13% (525/389,243) between days 7 and 13, before then gradually falling week on week.At 28 days post vaccination there was a 74% (HR 0.26 (0.19-0.35)) and 78% (HR 0.22 (0.18-0.27)) reduction in risk of testing positive for COVID-19 for individuals that received the Oxford/Astrazeneca and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines respectively, when compared with unvaccinated individuals.After vaccination very low rates of hospital admission were seen in individuals testing positive for COVID-19 (0.01% of all patients vaccinated).Conclusions This study provides further evidence that a single dose of either the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine or the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine is effective at reducing the risk of testing positive for COVID-19 up to 60 days across all adult age groups, ethnic groups, and risk categories in an urban UK population. There was no difference in effectiveness up to 28 days between the Oxford/Astrazeneca and Pfizer/BioNtech vaccines.In those declining vaccination higher

Working paper

Alboksmaty A, Kumar S, Parekh R, Aylin Pet al., 2021, Management and patient safety of complex elderly patients in primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK—Qualitative assessment, PLoS One, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 1932-6203

ObjectivesThe study aims to investigate GPs’ experiences of how UK COVID-19 policies have affected the management and safety of complex elderly patients, who suffer from multimorbidity, at the primary care level in North West London (NWL).DesignThis is a service evaluation adopting a qualitative approach.SettingIndividual semi-structured interviews were conducted between 6 and 22 May 2020, 2 months after the introduction of the UK COVID-19 Action Plan, allowing GPs to adapt to the new changes and reflect on their impact.ParticipantsFourteen GPs working in NWL were interviewed, until data saturation was reached.Outcome measuresThe impact of COVID-19 policies on the management and safety of complex elderly patients in primary care from the GPs’ perspective.ResultsParticipants’ average experience was fourteen years working in primary care for the NHS. They stated that COVID-19 policies have affected primary care at three levels, patients’ behaviour, work conditions, and clinical practice. GPs reflected on the impact through five major themes; four of which have been adapted from the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) framework, changes in primary care (at the three levels mentioned above), involvement of GPs in policy making, communication and coordination (with patients and in between medical teams), stressors and worries; in addition to a fifth theme to conclude the GPs’ suggestions for improvement (either proposed mitigation strategies, or existing actions that showed relative success). A participant used an expression of “infodemic” to describe the GPs’ everyday pressure of receiving new policy updates with their subsequent changes in practice.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has affected all levels of the health system in the UK, particularly primary care. Based on the GPs’ perspective in NWL, changes to practice have offered opportunities to maintain safe healthcare as well as possible drawbacks that should b

Journal article

Arhi C, Askari A, Nachiappan S, Bottle A, Arebi N, Athanasiou T, Ziprin P, Aylin P, Faiz Oet al., 2021, Stage at Diagnosis and Survival of Colorectal Cancer With or Without Underlying Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Population-based Study, JOURNAL OF CROHNS & COLITIS, Vol: 15, Pages: 375-382, ISSN: 1873-9946

Journal article

Ali AM, Loeffler MD, Aylin P, Bottle Aet al., 2021, Timing of Readmissions After Elective Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Does a 30-Day All-Cause Rate Capture Surgically Relevant Readmissions?, JOURNAL OF ARTHROPLASTY, Vol: 36, Pages: 728-733, ISSN: 0883-5403

Journal article

Greenfield G, Blair M, Aylin P, Saxena S, Majeed F, Bottle Ret al., 2021, Characteristics of frequent paediatric users of emergency departments in England: an observational study using routine national data, Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol: 38, Pages: 146-150, ISSN: 1472-0205

BACKGROUND:Frequent attendances of the same users in emergency departments (ED) can intensify workload pressures and are common among children, yet little is known about the characteristics of paediatric frequent users in EDs. AIM:To describe the volume of frequent paediatric attendance in England and the demographics of frequent paediatric ED users in English hospitals. METHOD:We analysed the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset for April 2014-March 2017. The study included 2 308 816 children under 16 years old who attended an ED at least once. Children who attended four times or more in 2015/2016 were classified as frequent users. The preceding and subsequent years were used to capture attendances bordering with the current year. We used a mixed effects logistic regression with a random intercept to predict the odds of being a frequent user in children from different sociodemographic groups. RESULTS:One in 11 children (9.1%) who attended an ED attended four times or more in a year. Infants had a greater likelihood of being a frequent attender (OR 3.24, 95% CI 3.19 to 3.30 vs 5 to 9 years old). Children from more deprived areas had a greater likelihood of being a frequent attender (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.59 vs least deprived). Boys had a slightly greater likelihood than girls (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.06). Children of Asian and mixed ethnic groups were more likely to be frequent users than those from white ethnic groups, while children from black and 'other' had a lower likelihood (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.05; OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06; OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.90; OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.92, respectively). CONCLUSION:One in 11 children was a frequent attender. Interventions for reducing paediatric frequent attendance need to target infants and families living in deprived areas.

Journal article

Dewa L, Crandell C, Choong E, Jaques J, Bottle R, Kilkenny C, Lawrence-Jones A, Di Simplicio M, Nicholls D, Aylin Pet al., 2021, CCopeY: a mixed-methods co-produced study on the mental health status and coping strategies of young people during COVID-19 UK lockdown, Journal of Adolescent Health, ISSN: 1054-139X

PurposeExploring the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on young people’s mental health is an increasing priority. Studies to date are largely surveys and lack meaningful involvement from service users in their design, planning and delivery. The study aimed to examine the mental health status and coping strategies of young people during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown using co-production methodology.MethodsThe mental health status of young people (aged 16-24) in April 2020 was established utilising a sequential explanatory co-produced mixed methods design. Factors associated with poor mental health status including coping strategies were also examined using an online survey and semi-structured interviews.Results30.3% had poor mental health and 10.8% had self-harmed since lockdown. Young people identifying as Black/Black-British ethnicity had the highest increased odds of experiencing poor mental health (odds ratio [OR] 3.688, 95% CI 0.54-25.40). Behavioural disengagement (OR 1.462, 95% CI 1.22-1.76), self-blame (OR 1.307 95% CI 1.10-1.55), and substance use (OR 1.211 95% CI 1.02-1.44) coping strategies, negative affect (OR 1.109, 95% CI 1.07-1.15), sleep problems (OR 0.915 95% CI 0.88-0.95) and conscientiousness personality trait (OR 0.819 95% CI 0.69-0.98) were significantly associated with poor mental health. Three qualitative themes were identified: (1) pre-existing/developed helpful coping strategies employed, (2) mental health difficulties worsened and (3) mental health and non-mental health support needed during and after lockdown.ConclusionPoor mental health is associated with dysfunctional coping strategies. Innovative coping strategies can help other young people cope during and after lockdowns, with digital and school promotion and application.

Journal article

Bottle R, Griffiths R, White S, Wynn-Jones H, Aylin P, Moppett I, Chowdhury E, Wilson H, Davies Bet al., 2020, Periprosthetic fractures: the next fragility fracture epidemic? A national observational study, BMJ Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2044-6055

Objectives Periprosthetic fractures have considerable clinical implications for patients and financial implications for healthcare systems. This study aims to determine the burden of periprosthetic fractures of the lower and upper limbs in England and identify any factors associated with differences in treatment and outcome.Design A national, observational study.Setting England.Participants All individuals admitted to hospital with periprosthetic fractures between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018.Primary and secondary outcome measures Mortality, length of stay, change in rate of admissions.Methods We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision code M96.6 (Fracture of bone following insertion of orthopaedic implant, joint prosthesis, or bone plate) to identify periprosthetic fractures recorded between April 2013 and December 2018. We determined the demographics, procedures performed, mortality rates and discharge destinations. Patient characteristics associated with having a procedure during the index admission were estimated using logistic regression. The annual rate of increase in admissions was estimated using Poisson regression.Results Between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018, there were 13 565 patients who had 18 888 admissions (89.5% emergency) with M96.6 in the primary diagnosis field. There was a 13% year-on-year increase in admissions for periprosthetic fracture in England during that period. Older people, people living in deprived areas and those with heart failure or neurological disorders were less likely to receive an operation. 14.4% of patients did not return home after hospital discharge. The overall inpatient mortality was 4.3% and total 30-day mortality was 3.3%.Conclusions The clinical and operational burden of periprosthetic fractures is considerable and increasing rapidly. We suggest that the management of people with periprosthetic fractures should be undertaken and f

Journal article

Dewa LH, Lawrance E, Roberts L, Brooks-Hall E, Ashrafian H, Fontana G, Aylin Pet al., 2020, Quality Social Connection as an 'Active Ingredient' in Digital Interventions for Young People With Depression and Anxiety: A Systematic Scoping Review and Meta-Analysis, The Lancet Pre-Prints

Background: A quality social connection (QSC) can influence outcomes in mental health support. Digital interventions may modify this influence, although conceptualisation and evidence on psychiatric outcomes is limited. We aimed to conceptualise and appraise evidence on digital QSC (D-QSC) for young people. <br><br>Methods: Systematic scoping review and meta-analysis, with embedded stakeholder involvement, searching healthcare databases, websites and the grey literature. We included studies that explored QSC within a digital intervention as part of the prevention or treatment of depression and/or anxiety in 14-24-year olds. <br><br>Findings: 5714 publications were identified and 42 were included. Of these, there were 23,319 participants. D-QSC translated into a five-component conceptual framework: Rapport, Identity and commonality, Valued interpersonal dynamic, Engagement and Responded to and accepted (RIVER). There was a significant decrease in depression (-25.6%, 95% CI [-0.352, -0.160], p<0.0005) and anxiety (-15.1%, 95% CI [-0.251, -0.051], p<0.0005). Heterogeneity was high. Literature and stakeholder evidence showcased D-QSC’s importance in the prevention and treatment of depression, though evidence was weaker for anxiety. Stakeholder insights highlighted that demographic, dynamic and environmental factors, including blended care, may influence D-QSC experiences and outcomes. <br><br>Interpretation: D-QSC is an important and under-considered component for depression and anxiety outcomes. Whilst more research is required, the RIVER conceptual framework can inform standardised measures for D-QSC. These measures can be used in the development and evaluation of digital interventions for mental health, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, where necessary support will be increasingly provided in online spaces. <br><br>Funding: This work was funded by a Wellcome Trust Mental Health Priority Area 'Active

Journal article

Worley G, Almoudaris A, Bassett P, Segal J, Akbar A, Ghosh S, Aylin P, Faiz Oet al., 2020, Colectomy rates for ulcerative colitis in England 2003-2016, ALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Vol: 53, Pages: 484-498, ISSN: 0269-2813

Journal article

Dewa L, Lawrence-Jones A, Kalorkoti C, Jaques J, Pickles K, Pappa S, Lavelle M, Aylin Pet al., 2020, Reflections and impact of a co-produced qualitative study with young people with experience of mental health difficulties, Publisher: Health Expectations

Working paper

Byrne BE, Faiz OD, Bottle A, Aylin P, Vincent CAet al., 2020, A Protocol is not Enough: Enhanced Recovery Program-Based Care and Clinician Adherence Associated with Shorter Stay After Colorectal Surgery, WORLD JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Vol: 45, Pages: 347-355, ISSN: 0364-2313

Journal article

Hanna GB, Mackenzie H, Miskovic D, Ni M, Wyles S, Aylin P, Parvaiz A, Cecil T, Gudgeon A, Griffith J, Robinson JM, Selvasekar C, Rockall T, Acheson A, Maxwell-Armstrong C, Jenkins JT, Horgan A, Cunningham C, Lindsay I, Arulampalam T, Motson RW, Francis NK, Kennedy RH, Coleman MG, Lapco programet al., 2020, Laparoscopic colorectal surgery outcomes improved after national training program (LAPCO) for specialists in England, Annals of Surgery, Pages: 1-1, ISSN: 0003-4932

OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of The National Training Programme for Laparoscopic Colorectal Surgery (Lapco) on the rate of laparoscopic surgery and clinical outcomes of cases performed by Lapco surgeons after completion of training. SUMMERY BACKGROUND DATA: Lapco provided competency-based supervised clinical training for specialist colorectal surgeons in England. METHODS: We compared the rate of laparoscopic surgery, mortality and morbidity for colorectal cancer resections by Lapco delegates and non-Lapco surgeons in 3-year periods preceding and following Lapco using difference in differences analysis. The changes in the rate of post-Lapco laparoscopic surgery with the Lapco sign-off competency assessment and in-training global assessment scores were examined using risk-adjusted cumulative sum to determine their predictive clinical validity with predefined competent scores of 3 and 5 respectively. RESULTS: 108 Lapco delegates performed 4586 elective colorectal resections pre-Lapco and 5115 post-Lapco while non-Lapco surgeons performed 72930 matched cases. Lapco delegates had a 37.8% increase in laparoscopic surgery which was greater than non-Lapco surgeons by 20.9% (95% CI, 18.5 to 23.3, p<0.001) with a relative decrease in 30-day mortality by -1.6% (95% CI, -3.4 to -0.2, p = 0.039) and 90-day mortality by -2.3% (95% CI, -4.3 to -0.4, p = 0.018). The change point of risk-adjusted cumulative sum was 3.12 for competency assessment tool and 4.74 for global assessment score whereas laparoscopic rate increased from 44% to 66% and 40% to 56% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lapco increased the rate of laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery and reduced mortality and morbidity in England. In-training competency assessment tools predicted clinical performance after training.

Journal article

McCabe R, Schmit N, Christen P, D'Aeth J, Løchen A, Rizmie D, Nayagam AS, Miraldo M, Aylin P, Bottle R, Perez-Guzman PN, Ghani A, Ferguson N, White P, Hauck Ket al., 2020, Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic, BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1741-7015

BackgroundTo calculate hospital surge capacity, achieved via hospital provision interventions implemented for the emergency treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other patients through March to May 2020; to evaluate the conditions for admitting patients for elective surgery under varying admission levels of COVID-19 patients.MethodsWe analysed National Health Service (NHS) datasets and literature reviews to estimate hospital care capacity before the pandemic (pre-pandemic baseline) and to quantify the impact of interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, deployment of former medical staff and deployment of newly qualified medical staff) for treatment of adult COVID-19 patients, focusing on general and acute (G&A) and critical care (CC) beds, staff and ventilators.ResultsNHS England would not have had sufficient capacity to treat all COVID-19 and other patients in March and April 2020 without the hospital provision interventions, which alleviated significant shortfalls in CC nurses, CC and G&A beds and CC junior doctors. All elective surgery can be conducted at normal pre-pandemic levels provided the other interventions are sustained, but only if the daily number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 1550 in the whole of England. If the other interventions are not maintained, then elective surgery can only be conducted if the number of COVID-19 patients occupying CC beds is not greater than 320. However, there is greater national capacity to treat G&A patients: without interventions, it takes almost 10,000 G&A COVID-19 patients before any G&A elective patients would be unable to be accommodated.ConclusionsUnless COVID-19 hospitalisations drop to low levels, there is a continued need to enhance critical care capacity in England with field hospitals, use of private hospitals or deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff to allow some or all elective surge

Journal article

Greenfield G, Blair M, Aylin P, Saxena S, Majeed F, Hoffman M, Bottle Aet al., 2020, Frequent attendances at emergency departments in England, Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol: 37, Pages: 597-599, ISSN: 1472-0205

Background: A small proportion of patients referred to as ‘frequent attenders’ account for a large proportion of hospital activity such as emergency departments (ED) attendances and admissions. There is lack of recent, national estimates of the volume of frequent ED attenders. We aimed to estimate the volume and age distribution of frequent ED attenders in English hospitals.Method: We included all attendances at all major EDs across England in the financial year 2016–2017. Patients who attended 3 times or more were classified as frequent attenders. We used a logistic regression model to predict the odds of being a frequent attender by age group.Results: 14,829,519 attendances were made by 10,062,847 patients who attended at least once. 73.5% of ED attenders attended once and accounted for 49.8% of the total ED attendances. 9.5% of ED attenders attended 3 times or more; they accounted for 27.1% of the ED attendances. While only 1.2% attended 6 times or more, their contribution was 7.6% of the total attendances. Infants and adults aged over 80 years were significantly more likely to be frequent attenders than adults aged 30-59 years (OR=2.11, 95% CI 2.09 to 2.13, OR=2.22, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.23, respectively). The likelihood of hospital admission rose steeply with the number of attendances a patient had.Conclusion: One in ten patients attending the ED are frequent attenders and account for over a quarter of attendances. Emergency care systems should consider better ways of reorganising health services to meet the needs of patients who attend EDs frequently.

Journal article

Dewa L, Crandell C, Choong E, Jaques J, Bottle R, Kilkenny C, Lawrence-Jones A, Nicholls D, Di Simplicio M, Aylin Pet al., 2020, CCopeY: a mixed-methods co-produced study on the mental health status and coping strategies of young people during COVID-19 UK lockdown

Working paper

Perez Guzman PN, Daunt A, Mukherjee S, Crook P, Forlano R, Kont M, Lochen A, Vollmer M, Middleton P, Judge R, Harlow C, Soubieres A, Cooke G, White PJ, Hallett T, Aylin P, Ferguson N, Hauck K, Thursz M, Nayagam Set al., 2020, Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a multi-ethnic London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 2020, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1058-4838

Background: Emerging evidence suggests ethnic minorities are disproportionatelyaffected by COVID-19. Detailed clinical analyses of multi-cultural hospitalized patientcohorts remain largely undescribed.Methods: We performed regression, survival andcumulative competing risk analyses to evaluate factors associated with mortality inpatients admitted for COVID-19 in three large London hospitals between February 25and April 5, censored as of May 1, 2020.Results: Of 614 patients (median age 69years, (IQR 25) and 62% male), 381 (62%) had been discharged alive, 178 (29%)died and 55 (9%) remained hospitalized at censoring. Severe hypoxemia (aOR 4.25,95%CI 2.36-7.64), leukocytosis (aOR 2.35, 95%CI 1.35-4.11), thrombocytopenia (aOR1.01, 95%CI 1.00-1.01, increase per 10x9decrease), severe renal impairment (aOR5.14, 95%CI 2.65-9.97), and low albumin (aOR 1.06, 95%CI 1.02-1.09, increase per gdecrease) were associated with death. Forty percent (244) were from black, Asian andother minority ethnic (BAME) groups, 38% (235) white and for 22% (135) ethnicity wasunknown. BAME patients were younger and had fewer comorbidities. Whilst theunadjusted odds of death did not differ by ethnicity, when adjusting for age, sex andcomorbidities, black patients were at higher odds of death compared to whites (aOR1.69, 95%CI 1.00-2.86). This association was stronger when further adjusting foradmission severity (aOR 1.85 95% CI 1.06-3.24). Conclusions: BAME patients were over-represented in our cohort and, whenaccounting for demographic and clinical profile of admission, black patients were atincreased odds of death. Further research is needed into biologic drivers of differencesin COVID-19 outcomes by ethnicity.

Journal article

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