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Martin G, Clarke J, Liew F, et al., 2019, Evaluating the impact of organisational digital maturity on clinical outcomes in secondary care in England, npj Digital Medicine, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2398-6352
All healthcare systems are increasingly reliant on health information technology to support the delivery of high-quality, efficient and safe care. Data on its effectiveness are however limited. We therefore sought to examine the impact of organisational digital maturity on clinical outcomes in secondary care within the English National Health Service. We conducted a retrospective analysis of routinely collected administrative data for 13,105,996 admissions across 136 hospitals in England from 2015 to 2016. Data from the 2016 NHS Clinical Digital Maturity Index were used to characterise organisational digital maturity. A multivariable regression model including 12 institutional covariates was utilised to examine the relationship between one measure of organisational digital maturity and five key clinical outcome measures. There was no significant relationship between organisational digital maturity and risk-adjusted 30-day mortality, 28-day readmission rates or complications of care. In multivariable analysis risk-adjusted long length of stay and harm-free care were significantly related to aspects of organisational digital maturity; digitally mature hospitals may not only deliver more harm-free care episodes but also may have a significantly increased risk of patients experiencing a long length of stay. Organisational digital maturity is to some extent related to selected clinical outcomes in secondary care in England. Digital maturity is, however, also strongly linked to other institutional factors that likely play a greater role in influencing clinical outcomes. There is a need to better understand how health IT impacts care delivery and supports other drivers of hospital quality.
Bottle A, Kim D, Hayhoe B, et al., 2019, Frailty and comorbidity predict first hospitalisation after heart failure diagnosis in primary care: population-based observational study in England, Age and Ageing, Vol: 48, Pages: 347-354, ISSN: 1468-2834
Background: frailty has only recently been recognised as important in patients with heart failure (HF), but little has been done to predict the first hospitalisation after diagnosis in unselected primary care populations. Objectives: to predict the first unplanned HF or all-cause admission after diagnosis, comparing the effects of comorbidity and frailty, the latter measured by the recently validated electronic frailty index (eFI). Design: observational study. Setting: primary care in England. Subjects: all adult patients diagnosed with HF in primary care between 2010 and 2013. Methods: we used electronic health records of patients registered with primary care practices sending records to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England with linkage to national hospital admissions and death data. Competing-risk time-to-event analyses identified predictors of first unplanned hospitalisation for HF or for any condition after diagnosis. Results: of 6,360 patients, 9% had an emergency hospitalisation for their HF, and 39% had one for any cause within a year of diagnosis; 578 (9.1%) died within a year without having any emergency admission. The main predictors of HF admission were older age, elevated serum creatinine and not being on a beta-blocker. The main predictors of all-cause admission were age, comorbidity, frailty, prior admission, not being on a beta-blocker, low haematocrit and living alone. Frailty effects were largest in patients aged under 85. Conclusions: this study suggests that frailty has predictive power beyond its comorbidity components. HF patients in the community should be assessed for frailty, which should be reflected in future HF guidelines.
Hayhoe B, Kim D, Aylin P, et al., 2019, Adherence to guidelines in management of symptoms suggestive of heart failure in primary care, Heart, Vol: 105, Pages: 678-685, ISSN: 1355-6037
Objective Clinical guidelines on heart failure (HF) suggest timings for investigation and referral in primary care. We calculated the time for patients to achieve key elements in the recommended pathway to diagnosis of HF.Methods In this observational study, we used linked primary and secondary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a database of anonymised electronic records from UK general practices) between 2010 and 2013. Records were examined for presenting symptoms (breathlessness, fatigue, ankle swelling) and key elements of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-recommended pathway to diagnosis (serum natriuretic peptide (NP) test, echocardiography, specialist referral).Results 42 403 patients were diagnosed with HF, of whom 16 597 presented in primary care with suggestive symptoms. 6464 (39%) had recorded NP or echocardiography, and 6043 (36%) specialist referral. Median time from recorded symptom(s) to investigation (NP or echocardiography) was 292 days (IQR 34–844) and to referral 236 days (IQR 42–721). Median time from symptom(s) to diagnosis was 972 days (IQR 337–1468) and to treatment with HF-relevant medication 803 days (IQR 230–1364). Factors significantly affecting timing of referral, treatment and diagnosis included patients’ sex (p=0.001), age (p<0.001), deprivation score (p=0.001), comorbidities (p<0.001) and presenting symptom type (p<0.001).Conclusions Median times to investigation or referral of patients presenting in primary care with symptoms suggestive of HF considerably exceeded recommendations. There is a need to support clinicians in the diagnosis of HF in primary care, with improved access to investigation and specialist assessment to support timely management.
Bottle A, Parikh S, Aylin P, et al., 2019, Risk factors for early revision after total hip and knee arthroplasty: National observational study from a surgeon and population perspective, PLoS One, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1932-6203
AimsTo identify predictors of early revision (within 3 years of the index operation) for hip and knee replacement (HR, KR) from both surgeon and population perspectives.Patients and methodsHierarchical logistic regression on national administrative data for England for index procedures between April 2009 and March 2014.ResultsThere were 315,273 index HR procedures and 374,530 index KR procedures for analysis. Three-year revision rates were 2.1% for HR and 2.2% for KR. The highest odds ratios for HR were for 3+ previous emergency admissions, drug abuse, Parkinson’s disease, resurfacing and ages under 60; for KR these were patellofemoral or partial joint replacement, 3+ previous emergency admissions, paralysis and ages under 60. Smaller effects were found for other comorbidities such as obesity (HR) and diabetes (KR). From a population perspective, the only population attributable fractions over 5% were for male gender, uncemented total hip replacements and partial knee or patellofemoral replacements.ConclusionsMeeting the rising demand for revision surgery is a challenge for healthcare leaders and policymakers. Our findings suggest optimising patients pre-operatively and improving patient selection for primary arthroplasty may reduce the burden of early revision of arthroplasty. Our study gives useful information on the additional risks of various comorbidities and procedures, which enables a more informed consent process.
Rao A, Dani K, Darzi A, et al., 2019, Regional variation in trajectories of long-term readmission rates among patients in England with heart failure, BMC Cardiovascular Disorders, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1471-2261
BackgroundWe aimed to compare the characteristics and types of heart failure (HF) patients termed “high-impact users”, with high long-term readmission rates, in different regions in England. This will allow clinical factors to be identified in areas with potentially poor quality of care.MethodsPatients with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the period 2008–2009 were identified using nationally representative primary care data linked to national hospital data and followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory models and sequence analysis were applied to their readmissions.ResultsIn each of the 8 NHS England regions, multiple discrete groups were identified. All the regions had high-impact users. The group with an initially high readmission rate followed by a rapid decline in the rate ranged from 2.5 to 11.3% across the regions. The group with constantly high readmission rate compared with other groups ranged from 1.9 to 12.1%. Covariates that were commonly found to have an association with high-impact users among most of the regions were chronic respiratory disease, chronic renal disease, stroke, anaemia, mood disorder, and cardiac arrhythmia. Respiratory tract infection, urinary infection, cardiopulmonary signs and symptoms and exacerbation of heart failure were common causes in the sequences of readmissions among high-impact users in all regions.ConclusionThere is regional variation in England in readmission and mortality rates and in the proportions of HF patients who are high-impact users.
Dunning J, Blankley S, Hoang LT, et al., 2019, Author Correction: Progression of whole-blood transcriptional signatures from interferon-induced to neutrophil-associated patterns in severe influenza., Nature Immunology, Vol: 20, Pages: 373-373, ISSN: 1529-2908
In the version of this article initially published, a source of funding was not included in the Acknowledgements section. That section should include the following: P.J.M.O. was supported by EU FP7 PREPARE project 602525. The error has been corrected in the HTML and PDF version of the article.
Arhi CS, Burns EM, Bouras G, et al., 2019, Complications after discharge and delays in adjuvant chemotherapy following colonic resection: a cohort study of linked primary and secondary care data, Colorectal Disease, Vol: 21, Pages: 307-314, ISSN: 1462-8910
AIM: By understanding the reasons for delays in adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after colonic resection, there is the potential to improve patient outcome. The aim of this study is to determine the extent and impact of complications after hospital discharge on delays to AC. METHOD: The study cohort included patients from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) who had a colorectal cancer resection; linkage to primary care data was provided by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Complications during the index hospital stay (from HES) and after discharge (from CPRD) were compared. The risk of late AC treatment (8 weeks or later) following a complication, stoma at the index procedure or emergency admission was described after accounting for age and Charlson score. A Cox hazards model determined the association of these factors with overall survival (OS). RESULTS: A total of 1266 patients underwent AC following colon cancer resection, of whom 598 (47.2%) received treatment within 8 weeks. Patients receiving late AC had a significantly higher proportion of re-operations (7.0% vs 3.3% P < 0.005) and wound infections (5.5% vs 3.7% P = 0.042), with 96% of the latter only being noted in CPRD. In multivariate analysis, the risk of AC delay significantly increased following a complication (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.16-2.03, P = 0.003) or a stoma at the index operation. AC delay was associated with worse OS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.44, 95% CI 1.16-1.79, P = 0.001], as was an emergency admission (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.21-1.98, P < 0.0005). However, the presence of a complication did not independently reduce OS (HR 1.15, 95%CI 0.89-1.48, P = 0.295). CONCLUSION: The true extent and impact of complications following colonic resection is underestimated when only secondary care data are used.
Mirza AH, Aylin P, Middleton S, et al., 2019, Impact of social deprivation on the outcome of major head and neck cancer surgery in England: A national analysis, HEAD AND NECK-JOURNAL FOR THE SCIENCES AND SPECIALTIES OF THE HEAD AND NECK, Vol: 41, Pages: 692-700, ISSN: 1043-3074
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Worley G, Almoudaris A, Bassett P, et al., 2019, A nationwide cohort study of colectomy rates for ulcerative colitis during the introduction of biologic therapy, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: S65-S66, ISSN: 1873-9946
Gharbi M, Lishman H, Goudie R, et al., 2019, Antibiotic management of urinary tract infection in the elderly in primary care and its association with bloodstream infections and all-cause mortality: a population-based cohort study, BMJ, Vol: 365, ISSN: 0959-8138
OBJECTIVETo evaluate the association between severe adverse outcomes and the antibiotic treatment for urinary tract infection (UTI) diagnosed in elderly adults in primary care. DESIGNA retrospective population-based cohort study.SETTINGClinical Practice Research Datalink (2007-2015) primary care records linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and death records in England.PARTICIPANTSPatients aged≥65 years presenting to a General Practitioner (GP) with at least one diagnosis of suspected or confirmed lower UTI from November 2007 to May 2015.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESBloodstream infection (BSI), hospital admission and all-cause mortality within 60 days following the index UTI diagnosis.RESULTSAmong 312,896 UTI episodes (157,264 unique patients), 7% did not have a record of having been prescribed antibiotics and 6% showed a delay in antibiotic prescribing. 1,539 episodes of BSI were recorded within 60 days following the initial UTI. The rate of BSI was significantly higher among those patients who were not prescribed an antibiotic (2. 9%) and those patients recorded as returning to the GP within 7 days of the initial consultation for an antibiotic prescription (2.2%), compared with those given a prescription for an antibiotic at the initial consultation (0.2%) (p=0.001). After adjustment for covariates, patients were significantly more likely to experience a BSI in the ‘deferred antibiotics’ and ‘no antibiotics’ groups compared with the ‘immediate antibiotics’ group (aOR=7.12 [95% CI 6.22 to 8.14] and aOR=8.08 [95% CI 7.12 to 9.16]).The Number Needed to Harm (NNH) for occurrence of BSI was lower (greater risk) for the ‘no antibiotics’ group (NNH=37) than for the ‘deferred antibiotics’ group (NNH=51), relative to the ‘immediate antibiotics’ group. The rate of hospital admissions was approximately double among cases with ‘no antibiotics’ (27%) and ‘deferred antibiotics’ (27%) comp
Kim D, Hayhoe B, Aylin P, et al., 2019, Variation in the route to heart failure diagnosis in English primary care: retrospective cohort study, British Journal of General Practice, ISSN: 0960-1643
Blandy O, Honeyford K, Gharbi M, et al., 2019, Factors that impact on the burden of Escherichia coli bacteraemia: multivariable regression analysis of 2011-2015 data from West London, Journal of Hospital Infection, Vol: 101, Pages: 120-128, ISSN: 0195-6701
BackgroundThe incidence of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England is increasing amid concern regarding the roles of antimicrobial resistance and nosocomial acquisition on burden of disease.AimTo determine the relative contributions of hospital-onset E. coli blood stream infection and specific E. coli antimicrobial resistance patterns to the burden and severity of E. coli bacteremia in West London.MethodsPatient and antimicrobial susceptibility data were collected for all cases of E. coli bacteraemia between 2011 and 2015. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between the category of infection (hospital or community-onset) and length of stay, intensive care unit admission, and 30-day all-cause mortality.FindingsE. coli bacteraemia incidence increased by 76% during the study period, predominantly due to community-onset cases. Resistance to quinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, and aminoglycosides also increased over the study period, occurring in both community- and hospital-onset cases. Hospital-onset and non-susceptibility to either quinolones or third-generation cephalosporins were significant risk factors for prolonged length of stay, as was older age. Rates of mortality were 7% and 12% at 7 and 30 days, respectively. Older age, a higher comorbidity score, and bacteraemia caused by strains resistant to three antibiotic classes were all significant risk factors for mortality at 30 days.ConclusionMultidrug resistance, increased age, and comorbidities were the main drivers of adverse outcome. The rise in E. coli bacteraemia was predominantly driven by community-onset infections, and initiatives to prevent community-onset cases should be a major focus to reduce the quantitative burden of E. coli infection.
Ali AM, Loeffler MD, Aylin P, et al., 2019, Predictors of 30-day readmission after total knee arthroplasty: analysis of 566,323 procedures in the United Kingdom, Journal of Arthroplasty, Vol: 34, Pages: 242-248.e1, ISSN: 0883-5403
BACKGROUND: All-cause 30-day readmission after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is currently used as a measure of hospital performance in the United States and elsewhere. Readmissions from surgical causes may more accurately reflect preventability and costs. However, little is known about whether predictors of each type of readmission differ. METHODS: All primary TKAs recorded in England's National Health Service administrative database from 2006 to 2015 were included. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to describe the effects of patient-related factors on 30-day readmission risk using 3 different readmission metrics: all-cause, surgical (defined using International Classification of Disease-10 primary admission diagnoses), and those resulting in return to theater (RTT). RESULTS: In total, 566,323 procedures were recorded. The comorbidity with the highest odds ratio (OR) for all types of readmission was psychoses (RTT OR 2.52, P < .001). Obesity was a strong independent predictor of RTT (OR 1.36, P < .001) and had the highest population attributable fraction of any comorbidity (4.7%). Unicompartmental arthroplasty was associated with a significantly lower risk of all types of readmission when compared with TKA, with the effect being most pronounced for surgical readmission (OR 0.66, P < .001). RTT in the index episode increased the risk of RTT readmission (OR 2.80, P < .001), as did any emergency admission to hospital in the preceding 12 months (for >2 emergency admissions, all-cause OR 2.38, P < .001). Length of stay either more than or less than 2 days was associated with an increased risk of all-cause and surgical readmission but not RTT readmission. CONCLUSION: Patient-related predictors of surgical and RTT readmission following TKA differ from those for all-cause readmission, but only the latter metric is in widespread use.
Honeyford CE, Aylin P, Bottle R, 2019, Should emergency department attendances be used with or instead of readmission rates as a performance metric? Comparison of statistical properties using national data, Medical Care, Vol: 57, Pages: e1-e8, ISSN: 1537-1948
Background: Hospital readmissions are common and are viewed as unfavorable. They are commonly used as a measure of quality of care and, in the United States and England, are associated with financial penalties. Readmissions are not the only possible return-to-acute-care metric; patients may also attend emergency departments (ED).Objective: To assess hospital-level return-to-acute-care metrics using statistical criteria.Research Design: Patient readmissions and/or ED attendances were aggregated to produce risk-standardized hospital rates. Return-to-acute-care rates at 7, 30, 90, and 365 days were assessed using key statistical properties: (i) variability between hospitals; (ii) the relative contribution of patient and nonpatient factors to variation; and (iii) the statistical power to detect performance differences.Subjects: We had pseudonymized administrative data on all inpatient hospital admissions and ED attendances in National Health Service hospitals in England between April 2009 and March 2011. Patients with an inpatient stay for chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder or heart failure were eligible for inclusion.Measures: ED attendances and readmissions for patients discharged from an inpatient stay for chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder or heart failure.Results: Interhospital variation was greatest for ED attendance; in addition, readmission was more strongly determined by patient characteristics than was ED attendance or both combined. Because of smaller numbers, the statistical power to detect differences in rates at 7 days for any indicator was limited.Conclusions: Despite the current emphasis on readmissions, we found that ED attendance within 30 days has more desirable statistical properties and therefore the potential to be a useful metric when comparing hospitals.
Bird J, Corbridge O, Aylin P, et al., 2019, Day-case surgery is associated with an increased risk of emergency readmission following first-time elective hemithyroidectomy in low morbidity patients, Annual Scientific Meeting of the British-Association-of-Endocrine-and-Thyroid-Surgeons (BAETS), Publisher: WILEY, Pages: 7-7, ISSN: 0007-1323
Cecil EV, Wilkinson S, Bottle R, et al., 2018, A national hospital mortality surveillance system: a descriptive analysis, BMJ Quality and Safety, Vol: 27, Pages: 974-981, ISSN: 2044-5415
Objective To provide a description of the Imperial College Mortality Surveillance System and subsequent investigations by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) in National Health Service (NHS) hospitals receiving mortality alerts.Background The mortality surveillance system has generated monthly mortality alerts since 2007, on 122 individual diagnosis and surgical procedure groups, using routinely collected hospital administrative data for all English acute NHS hospital trusts. The CQC, the English national regulator, is notified of each alert. This study describes the findings of CQC investigations of alerting trusts.Methods We carried out (1) a descriptive analysis of alerts (2007–2016) and (2) an audit of CQC investigations in a subset of alerts (2011–2013).Results Between April 2007 and October 2016, 860 alerts were generated and 76% (654 alerts) were sent to trusts. Alert volumes varied over time (range: 40–101). Septicaemia (except in labour) was the most commonly alerting group (11.5% alerts sent). We reviewed CQC communications in a subset of 204 alerts from 96 trusts. The CQC investigated 75% (154/204) of alerts. In 90% of these pursued alerts, trusts returned evidence of local case note reviews (140/154). These reviews found areas of care that could be improved in 69% (106/154) of alerts. In 25% (38/154) trusts considered that identified failings in care could have impacted on patient outcomes. The CQC investigations resulted in full trust action plans in 77% (118/154) of all pursued alerts.Conclusion The mortality surveillance system has generated a large number of alerts since 2007. Quality of care problems were found in 69% of alerts with CQC investigations, and one in four trusts reported that failings in care may have an impact on patient outcomes. Identifying whether mortality alerts are the most efficient means to highlight areas of substandard care will require further investigation.
Arhi CS, Bottle A, Burns EM, et al., 2018, Comparison of cancer diagnosis recording between the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Cancer Registry and Hospital Episodes Statistics, Cancer Epidemiology, Vol: 57, Pages: 148-157, ISSN: 0361-090X
IntroductionThe Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) is a large electronic dataset of primary care medical records. For the purpose of epidemiological studies, it is necessary to ensure accuracy and completeness of cancer diagnoses in CPRD.MethodCases included had a colorectal, oesophagogastric (OG), breast, prostate or lung cancer diagnosis recorded in a least one of CPRD, Cancer Registry (CR) or Hospital Episodes Statistics(HES) between 2000 and 2013. Agreement in diagnosis between the datasets, difference in dates, survival at one and five-years, and whether patient characteristics differed according to the dataset or the timing of diagnosis were investigated.Results116,769 patients were included. For each cancer, approximately 10% of cases identified from CPRD or HES were not confirmed in the CR. 25.5% colorectal, 26.0% OG, 8.9% breast, 32.0% lung and 18.6% prostate cases identified from the CR were missing in CPRD. The diagnosis date was recorded later in CPRD compared with CR for each cancer, ranging from 81.1% for prostate to 59.6% for colorectal, especially if the diagnosis was an emergency. Compared with the CR and HES, the adjusted risk of a missing diagnosis in CPRD was significantly higher if the patient was older, had more co-morbidities or was diagnosed as an emergency. Survival at one and five-years was highest for CPRD.ConclusionPatient demographics and the route of diagnosis impact the accuracy of cancer diagnosis in CPRD. Although CPRD provides invaluable primary care data, patients should ideally be identified from the CR to reduce bias.
Troughton R, Birgand G, Johnson AP, et al., 2018, Mapping national surveillance of surgical site infections (SSIs) to national needs and priorities: an assessment of England’s surveillance landscape, Journal of Hospital Infection, Vol: 100, Pages: 378-385, ISSN: 0195-6701
BackgroundThe rise in antimicrobial resistance has highlighted the importance of surgical site infection (SSI) prevention with effective surveillance strategies playing a key role in improving patient safety. This study maps national needs and priorities for SSI surveillance against current national surveillance activity.MethodsThis study analysed SSI surveillance in NHS hospitals in England covering 23 surgical procedures. Data collected were: (i) annual number of procedures, (ii) SSI rates from national reports, (iii) national reporting requirement (mandatory, voluntary, not offered), (iv) priority ranking from a survey of 84 English NHS hospitals, (v) excess length of stay and costs from the literature. The relationships between estimated SSI burden, national surveillance activity, and hospital-reported priorities were explored with descriptive and univariate analyses.FindingsAmong the 23 surgical categories analysed, top priority ranking by hospitals was associated only with current surveillance (r=0.76, p<0.01) and mandatory reporting (33% vs 8 and 4%, p=0.04). Percentage of hospitals undertaking surveillance, mandatory reporting, and the selection of priorities did not match SSI burden. Large bowel surgery (LBS, voluntary) and caesarean section (not offered) were the two highest contributors of total SSIs per annum, with 39,000 (38%) and 17,000 (16%) respectively, while the four orthopaedic categories (all mandatory) contributed 5,000 (5%). LBS also had the highest associated costs (£119m per annum).ConclusionCurrent surveillance and future priorities were not associated with SSI rate, volume, or cost to hospitals. The two highest contributors of SSIs and related costs have no (caesarean section) or limited (LBS) coverage by national surveillance.
Honeyford C, Cecil E, Lo M, et al., 2018, The weekend effect: does hospital mortality differ by day of the week? A systematic review and meta-analysis, BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1472-6963
BackgroundThe concept of a weekend effect, poorer outcomes for patients admitted to hospitals at the weekend is not new, but is the focus of debate in England. Many studies have been published which consider outcomes for patients on admitted at the weekend. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to estimate the effect of weekend admission on mortality in UK hospitals.MethodsThis is a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies on the weekend effect in UK hospitals. We used EMBASE, MEDLINE, HMIC, Cochrane, Web of Science and Scopus to search for relevant papers. We included systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials and observational studies) on patients admitted to hospital in the UK and published after 2001. Our outcome was death; studies reporting mortality were included. Reviewers identified studies, extracted data and assessed the quality of the evidence, independently and in duplicate. Discrepancy in assessment was considered by a third reviewer. All meta-analyses were performed using a random-effects meta-regression to incorporate the heterogeneity into the weighting.ResultsForty five articles were included in the qualitative synthesis. 53% of the articles concluded that outcomes for patients either undergoing surgery or admitted at the weekend were worse. We included 39 in the meta-analysis which contributed 50 separate analyses. We found an overall effect of 1.07 [odds ratio (OR)] (95%CI:1.03–1.12), suggesting that patients admitted at the weekend had higher odds of mortality than those admitted during the week. Sub-group analyses suggest that the weekend effect remained when measures of case mix severity were included in the models (OR:1.06 95%CI:1.02–1.10), but that the weekend effect was not significant when clinical registry data was used (OR:1.03 95%CI: 0.98–1.09). Heterogeneity was high, which may affect generalisability.ConclusionsDespite high levels of heterogeneity, we found evidence of a weekend effect in
Bottle R, Kim D, Aylin P, et al., 2018, Real-world presentation with heart failure in primary care: Do patients selected to follow diagnostic and management guidelines have better outcomes?, Open Heart, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2053-3624
Objective To describe associations between initial management of people presenting with heart failure (HF) symptoms in primary care, including compliance with the recommendations of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), and subsequent unplanned hospitalisation for HF and death.Methods This is a retrospective cohort study using data from general practices submitting records to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The cohort comprised patients diagnosed with HF during 2010–2013 and presenting to their general practitioners with breathlessness, fatigue or ankle swelling.Results 13 897 patients were included in the study. Within the first 6 months, only 7% had completed the NICE-recommended pathway; another 18.6% had followed part of it (B-type natriuretic peptide testing and/or echocardiography, or specialist referral). Significant differences in hazards were seen in unadjusted analysis in favour of full or partial completion of the NICE-recommended pathway. Covariate adjustment attenuated the relations with death much more than those for HF admission. Compared with patients placed on the NICE pathway, treatment with HF medications had an HR of 1.16 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.28, p=0.003) for HF admission and 1.03 (95% CI 0.90 to 1.17, p= 0.674) for death. Patients who partially followed the NICE pathway had similar hazards to those who completed it. Patients on no pathway had the highest hazard for HF admission at 1.30 (95% 1.18 to 1.43, p<0.001) but similar hazard for death.Conclusions Patients not put on at least some elements of the NICE-recommended pathway had significantly higher risk of HF admission but non-significant higher risk of death than other patients had.
Arhi C, Burns E, Bottle A, et al., 2018, Delays in primary care are associated with a late stage and worse prognosis for colorectal cancer patients: A population based study, National-Cancer-Research-Institute (NCRI) Cancer Conference, Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: 4-4, ISSN: 0007-0920
Arhi C, Ziprin P, Bottle A, et al., 2018, Young colorectal cancer patients experience referral delays in primary care leading to emergency diagnoses, National-Cancer-Research-Institute (NCRI) Cancer Conference, Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: 4-4, ISSN: 0007-0920
Kim D, Hayhoe B, Aylin P, et al., 2018, Variation in route to diagnosis of heart failure in primary care in England: analysis of a retrospective cohort between 2010 and 2013, Public Health Science Conference, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: 13-13, ISSN: 0140-6736
Rao AM, Bottle A, Bicknell C, et al., 2018, Trajectory modelling to assess trends in long-term readmission rate among abdominal aortic aneurysm patients, Surgery Research and Practice, Vol: 2018, ISSN: 2356-7759
Introduction. The aim of the study was to use trajectory analysis to categorise high-impact users based on their long-term readmission rate and identify their predictors following AAA (abdominal aortic aneurysm) repair. Methods. In this retrospective cohort study, group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was performed on the patient cohort (2006-2009) identified through national administrative data from all NHS English hospitals. Proc Traj software was used in SAS program to conduct GBTM, which classified patient population into groups based on their annual readmission rates during a 5-year period following primary AAA repair. Based on the trends of readmission rates, patients were classified into low- and high-impact users. The high-impact group had a higher annual readmission rate throughout 5-year follow-up. Short-term high-impact users had initial high readmission rate followed by rapid decline, whereas chronic high-impact users continued to have high readmission rate. Results. Based on the trends in readmission rates, GBTM classified elective AAA repair () patients into 2 groups: low impact (82.0%) and high impact (18.0%). High-impact users were significantly associated with female sex () undergoing other vascular procedures (), poor socioeconomic status index (), older age (), and higher comorbidity score (). The AUC for c-statistics was 0.84. Patients with ruptured AAA repair () had 3 groups: low impact (82.7%), short-term high impact (7.2%), and chronic high impact (10.1%). Chronic high impact users were significantly associated with renal failure (), heart failure (P = 0.01), peripheral vascular disease (), female sex (P = 0.02), open repair (), and undergoing other related procedures (). The AUC for c-statistics was 0.71. Conclusion. Patients with persistent high readmission rates exist among AAA population; however, their readmissions and mortality are not related to AAA repair. They may benefit from optimization of their medical management of comorbiditie
Aylin PP, Bou-Antoun S, Costelloe CE, et al., 2018, Age-related decline in antibiotic prescribing for uncomplicated respiratory tract infections in primary care in England following the introduction of a national financial incentive (the Quality Premium) for health commissioners to reduce use of antibiotics in the community: an interrupted time series analysis, Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, Vol: 73, Pages: 2883-2892, ISSN: 0305-7453
Objectives: To assess the impact of the 2015/16 NHS England Quality Premium (which provided a financial incentive for Clinical Commissioning Groups to reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care) on antibiotic prescribing by General Practitioners (GPs) for respiratory tract infections (RTIs).Method: Interrupted time series analysis using monthly patient-level consultation and prescribing data obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), between April 2011 and March 2017. The study population comprised patients consulting a GP who were diagnosed with an RTI. We assessed the rate of antibiotic prescribing in patients (both aggregate and stratified by age) with a recorded diagnosis of uncomplicated RTI, before and after the implementation of the Quality Premium.Results: Prescribing rates decreased over the six year study period, with evident seasonality. Notably, there was a 3% drop in the rate of antibiotic prescribing (equating to 14.65 prescriptions per 1,000 RTI consultations) (p<0.05) in April 2015, coinciding with the introduction of the Quality Premium. This reduction was sustained, such that after two years there was a 3% decrease in prescribing relative to that expected had the pre-intervention trend continued. There was also a concurrent 2% relative reduction in the rate of broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing. Antibiotic prescribing for RTIs diagnosed in children showed the greatest decline with a 6% relative change two years after the intervention. Of the RTI indications studied, the greatest reductions in antibiotic prescribing were seen for patients with sore throats.Conclusions: Community prescribing of antibiotics for RTIs significantly decreased following the introduction of the Quality Premium, with the greatest reduction seen in younger patients.
Balinskaite V, Holmes A, Johnson A, et al., 2018, The Impact of a National Antimicrobial Stewardship Programmes on Antibiotic Prescribing in Primary Care in England: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis, ISQua, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: 37-38, ISSN: 1353-4505
Balinskaite V, Holmes A, Johnson A, et al., 2018, An Assessment of Unintended Consequences in England Following a National Antimicrobial Stewardship Programme: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis, ISQua, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: 37-37, ISSN: 1353-4505
Arhi C, Moussa O, Aylin P, et al., 2018, SYMPTOM AT PRESENATION FOR OBESITY PATIENTS WITH COLORECTAL CANCER, 23rd World Congress of the International-Federation-for-the-Surgery-of-Obesity-and-Metabolic-Disorders (IFSO), Publisher: SPRINGER, Pages: 329-329, ISSN: 0960-8923
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