Imperial College London
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ProfessorPaulAylin

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

p.aylin Website

 
 
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Location

 

Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Vollmer:2021:10.1186/s12913-021-07008-9,
author = {Vollmer, MAC and Radhakrishnan, S and Kont, MD and Flaxman, S and Bhatt, SJ and Costelloe, C and Honeyford, K and Aylin, P and Cooke, G and Redhead, J and Sanders, A and Mangan, H and White, PJ and Ferguson, N and Hauck, K and Perez, Guzman PN and Nayagam, S},
doi = {10.1186/s12913-021-07008-9},
journal = {BMC Health Services Research},
pages = {1--9},
title = {The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-07008-9},
volume = {21},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surgein demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergencydepartment (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies.Methods This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial CollegeHealthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving averagetime-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trendswere compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (whenEngland implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. Wecompared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, wecompared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT duringthe present year to the historic 5-year average.Results ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the firstlockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broadertrends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50%for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst thoseaged <65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) andnot correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance frompostcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crudemortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p=0.19).Conclusions Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give anindication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we findthat a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patientswithout COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The ext
AU  - Vollmer,MAC
AU  - Radhakrishnan,S
AU  - Kont,MD
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Bhatt,SJ
AU  - Costelloe,C
AU  - Honeyford,K
AU  - Aylin,P
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Redhead,J
AU  - Sanders,A
AU  - Mangan,H
AU  - White,PJ
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Hauck,K
AU  - Perez,Guzman PN
AU  - Nayagam,S
DO  - 10.1186/s12913-021-07008-9
EP  - 9
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 1472-6963
SP  - 1
TI  - The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study
T2  - BMC Health Services Research
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-07008-9
UR  - https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-021-07008-9
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91609
VL  - 21
ER  -
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