Imperial College London
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DrPauloCeppi

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physics

Senior Lecturer in Climate Science
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1710p.ceppi Website

 
 
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Location

 

725Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Zelinka:2020:10.1029/2019gl085782,
author = {Zelinka, MD and Myers, TA and McCoy, DT and PoChedley, S and Caldwell, PM and Ceppi, P and Klein, SA and Taylor, KE},
doi = {10.1029/2019gl085782},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
title = {Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085782},
volume = {47},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60047:grl60047-math-0001 doubling, has been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global climate models (GCMs), which attempt to represent all relevant physical processes, provide the most direct means of estimating climate sensitivity via CO urn:x-wiley:grl:media:grl60047:grl60047-math-0002 quadrupling experiments. Here we show that the closely related effective climate sensitivity has increased substantially in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), with values spanning 1.8–5.6 K across 27 GCMs and exceeding 4.5 K in 10 of them. This (statistically insignificant) increase is primarily due to stronger positive cloud feedbacks from decreasing extratropical low cloud coverage and albedo. Both of these are tied to the physical representation of clouds which in CMIP6 models lead to weaker responses of extratropical low cloud cover and water content to unforced variations in surface temperature. Establishing the plausibility of these higher sensitivity models is imperative given their implied societal ramifications.
AU  - Zelinka,MD
AU  - Myers,TA
AU  - McCoy,DT
AU  - PoChedley,S
AU  - Caldwell,PM
AU  - Ceppi,P
AU  - Klein,SA
AU  - Taylor,KE
DO  - 10.1029/2019gl085782
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 0094-8276
TI  - Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models
T2  - Geophysical Research Letters
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085782
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/76038
VL  - 47
ER  -
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