Imperial College London

ProfessorPaulElliott

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Chair in Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3328p.elliott Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Miss Jennifer Wells +44 (0)20 7594 3328

 
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Location

 

154Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

887 results found

Traini E, Smith RB, Vermeulen R, Kromhout H, Schüz J, Feychting M, Auvinen A, Poulsen AH, Deltour I, Muller DC, Heller J, Tettamanti G, Elliott P, Huss A, Toledano MBet al., 2024, Headache in the international cohort study of mobile phone use and health (COSMOS) in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, Environmental Research, Vol: 248, ISSN: 0013-9351

Headache is a common condition with a substantial burden of disease worldwide. Concerns have been raised over the potential impact of long-term mobile phone use on headache due to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs). We explored prospectively the association between mobile phone use at baseline (2009-2012) and headache at follow-up (2015-2018) by analysing pooled data consisting of the Dutch and UK cohorts of the Cohort Study of Mobile Phone Use and Health (COSMOS) (N = 78,437). Frequency of headache, migraine, and information on mobile phone use, including use of hands-free devices and frequency of texting, were self-reported. We collected objective operator data to obtain regression calibrated estimates of voice call duration. In the model mutually adjusted for call-time and text messaging, participants in the high category of call-time showed an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 1.04 (95 % CI: 0.94-1.15), with no clear trend of reporting headache with increasing call-time. However, we found an increased risk of weekly headache (OR = 1.40, 95 % CI: 1.25-1.56) in the high category of text messaging, with a clear increase in reporting headache with increasing texting. Due to the negligible exposure to RF-EMFs from texting, our results suggest that mechanisms other than RF-EMFs are responsible for the increased risk of headache that we found among mobile phone users.

Journal article

Gallego-Fabrega C, Temprano-Sagrera G, Cárcel-Márquez J, Muiño E, Cullell N, Lledós M, Llucià-Carol L, Martin-Campos JM, Sobrino T, Castillo J, Millán M, Muñoz-Narbona L, López-Cancio E, Ribó M, Alvarez-Sabin J, Jiménez-Conde J, Roquer J, Tur S, Obach V, Arenillas JF, Segura T, Serrano-Heras G, Marti-Fabregas J, Freijo-Guerrero M, Moniche F, Castellanos MDM, Morrison AC, Smith NL, de Vries PS, Fernández-Cadenas I, Sabater-Lleal M, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium, Spanish Stroke Genetic Consortiumet al., 2024, A multitrait genetic study of hemostatic factors and hemorrhagic transformation after stroke treatment, Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, Vol: 22, Pages: 936-950, ISSN: 1538-7836

BACKGROUND: Thrombolytic recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (r-tPA) treatment is the only pharmacologic intervention available in the ischemic stroke acute phase. This treatment is associated with an increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhages, known as hemorrhagic transformations (HTs), which worsen the patient's prognosis. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between genetically determined natural hemostatic factors' levels and increased risk of HT after r-tPA treatment. METHODS: Using data from genome-wide association studies on the risk of HT after r-tPA treatment and data on 7 hemostatic factors (factor [F]VII, FVIII, von Willebrand factor [VWF], FXI, fibrinogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, and tissue plasminogen activator), we performed local and global genetic correlation estimation multitrait analyses and colocalization and 2-sample Mendelian randomization analyses between hemostatic factors and HT. RESULTS: Local correlations identified a genomic region on chromosome 16 with shared covariance: fibrinogen-HT, P = 2.45 × 10-11. Multitrait analysis between fibrinogen-HT revealed 3 loci that simultaneously regulate circulating levels of fibrinogen and risk of HT: rs56026866 (PLXND1), P = 8.80 × 10-10; rs1421067 (CHD9), P = 1.81 × 10-14; and rs34780449, near ROBO1 gene, P = 1.64 × 10-8. Multitrait analysis between VWF-HT showed a novel common association regulating VWF and risk of HT after r-tPA at rs10942300 (ZNF366), P = 1.81 × 10-14. Mendelian randomization analysis did not find significant causal associations, although a nominal association was observed for FXI-HT (inverse-variance weighted estimate [SE], 0.07 [-0.29 to 0.00]; odds ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75-1.00; raw P = .05). CONCLUSION: We identified 4 shared loci between hemostatic factors and HT after r-tPA treatment, suggesting common regulatory mechanisms between fibrinogen and VWF levels and HT. Fur

Journal article

Al-Jafar R, Pinto RC, Elliott P, Tsilidis KK, Dehghan Aet al., 2024, Metabolomics of Ramadan fasting and associated risk of chronic diseases., Am J Clin Nutr, Vol: 119, Pages: 1007-1014

BACKGROUND: The dramatic change in lifestyle associated with Ramadan fasting raises questions about its effect on metabolism and health. Metabolites, as the end product of metabolism, are excellent candidates to be studied in this regard. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the effect of Ramadan fasting on the metabolic profile and risk of chronic diseases. METHODS: The London Ramadan study (LORANS) is an observational study in which 2 blood samples were collected from 72 participants a few days before and after the fasting month of Ramadan. We conducted metabolomic profiling using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to assess the change in individual metabolites from before to after Ramadan. Also, we generated metabolic scores (scaled from 0 to 100) for 7 chronic diseases in the UK Biobank and assessed the association of Ramadan fasting with these scores in LORANS. RESULTS: Of the 72 participants, 35 were male (48.6%); the mean (± standard deviation) age was 45.7 (±16) y. Ramadan fasting was associated with changes in 14 metabolites (1 inflammation marker, 1 amino acid, 2 glycolysis-related metabolites, 2 ketone bodies, 2 triglyceride, and 6 lipoprotein subclasses), independent of changes in body composition. Using data from 117,981 participants in the UK Biobank, we generated metabolic scores for diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, renal failure, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, and lung cancer. The metabolic scores for lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer were lower after Ramadan in LORANS (-4.74, 9.6%, 95% confidence interval -6.56, -2.91, P < 0.001), (-1.09, -2.4%, -1.69, -0. 50, P < 0.001), and (-0.48, -1.1%, -0. 81, -0.15, P = 0.006), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Ramadan fasting is associated with short-term favorable changes in the metabolic profile concerning risk of some chronic diseases. These findings should be further investigated in future, larger studies of longer follow-up with clinical outcomes.

Journal article

Yu J, Arnott C, Li Q, Di Tanna GL, Tian M, Huang L, Yin X, Zhang X, Pearson S-A, Labarthe DR, Elliott P, Yan LL, Zhou B, Wu Y, Neal Bet al., 2024, Secondary Analysis of the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS): Effects of Potassium-Enriched Salt on Cardiac Outcomes., Hypertension

BACKGROUND: The SSaSS (Salt Substitute and Stroke Study) has shown that use of a potassium-enriched salt lowers the risk of stroke, total cardiovascular events, and premature death. The effects on cause-specific cardiac outcomes are reported here. METHODS: SSaSS was an unblinded, cluster-randomised trial assessing the effects of potassium-enriched salt compared with regular salt among 20 995 Chinese adults with established stroke and older age and uncontrolled hypertension. Post hoc efficacy analyses were performed using an intention-to-treat method and a hierarchical Poisson regression model adjusting for clustering to obtain rate ratios and 95% CIs. We assessed acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, arrhythmia, and sudden death. RESULTS: Over a mean 4.74 years follow-up, there were 695 acute coronary syndrome events, 454 heart failure events, 230 arrhythmia events, and 1133 sudden deaths recorded. The rates of events were lower in potassium-enriched salt group for all outcomes but CIs were wide for most: acute coronary syndrome (6.32 versus 7.65 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.65-0.99]); heart failure (9.14 versus 11.32 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.60-1.28]); arrhythmia (4.43 versus 6.20 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.35-0.98]); and sudden death (11.01 versus 11.76 events per 1000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.82-1.07]; all P>0.05 with adjustment for multiple comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that use of potassium-enriched salt is more likely to prevent than cause cardiac disease but the post hoc nature of these analyses precludes definitive conclusions. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02092090.

Journal article

Feychting M, Schüz J, Toledano MB, Vermeulen R, Auvinen A, Harbo Poulsen A, Deltour I, Smith RB, Heller J, Kromhout H, Huss A, Johansen C, Tettamanti G, Elliott Pet al., 2024, Mobile phone use and brain tumour risk - COSMOS, a prospective cohort study, Environment International, Vol: 185, ISSN: 0160-4120

BACKGROUND: Each new generation of mobile phone technology has triggered discussions about potential carcinogenicity from exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF). Available evidence has been insufficient to conclude about long-term and heavy mobile phone use, limited by differential recall and selection bias, or crude exposure assessment. The Cohort Study on Mobile Phones and Health (COSMOS) was specifically designed to overcome these shortcomings. METHODS: We recruited participants in Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK 2007-2012. The baseline questionnaire assessed lifetime history of mobile phone use. Participants were followed through population-based cancer registers to identify glioma, meningioma, and acoustic neuroma cases during follow-up. Non-differential exposure misclassification was reduced by adjusting estimates of mobile phone call-time through regression calibration methods based on self-reported data and objective operator-recorded information at baseline. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for glioma, meningioma, and acoustic neuroma in relation to lifetime history of mobile phone use were estimated with Cox regression models with attained age as the underlying time-scale, adjusted for country, sex, educational level, and marital status. RESULTS: 264,574 participants accrued 1,836,479 person-years. During a median follow-up of 7.12 years, 149 glioma, 89 meningioma, and 29 incident cases of acoustic neuroma were diagnosed. The adjusted HR per 100 regression-calibrated cumulative hours of mobile phone call-time was 1.00 (95 % CI 0.98-1.02) for glioma, 1.01 (95 % CI 0.96-1.06) for meningioma, and 1.02 (95 % CI 0.99-1.06) for acoustic neuroma. For glioma, the HR for ≥ 1908 regression-calibrated cumulative hours (90th percentile cut-point) was 1.07 (95 % CI 0.62-1.86). Over 15 years of mobile phone use was not associated with an increased tumour risk; for gl

Journal article

Hampshire A, Azor A, Atchison C, Trender W, Hellyer PJ, Giunchiglia V, Husain M, Cooke GS, Cooper E, Lound A, Donnelly CA, Chadeau-Hyam M, Ward H, Elliott Pet al., 2024, Cognition and memory after Covid-19 in a large community sample, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 390, Pages: 806-818, ISSN: 0028-4793

BACKGROUND: Cognitive symptoms after coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), are well-recognized. Whether objectively measurable cognitive deficits exist and how long they persist are unclear. METHODS: We invited 800,000 adults in a study in England to complete an online assessment of cognitive function. We estimated a global cognitive score across eight tasks. We hypothesized that participants with persistent symptoms (lasting ≥12 weeks) after infection onset would have objectively measurable global cognitive deficits and that impairments in executive functioning and memory would be observed in such participants, especially in those who reported recent poor memory or difficulty thinking or concentrating ("brain fog"). RESULTS: Of the 141,583 participants who started the online cognitive assessment, 112,964 completed it. In a multiple regression analysis, participants who had recovered from Covid-19 in whom symptoms had resolved in less than 4 weeks or at least 12 weeks had similar small deficits in global cognition as compared with those in the no-Covid-19 group, who had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or had unconfirmed infection (-0.23 SD [95% confidence interval {CI}, -0.33 to -0.13] and -0.24 SD [95% CI, -0.36 to -0.12], respectively); larger deficits as compared with the no-Covid-19 group were seen in participants with unresolved persistent symptoms (-0.42 SD; 95% CI, -0.53 to -0.31). Larger deficits were seen in participants who had SARS-CoV-2 infection during periods in which the original virus or the B.1.1.7 variant was predominant than in those infected with later variants (e.g., -0.17 SD for the B.1.1.7 variant vs. the B.1.1.529 variant; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.13) and in participants who had been hospitalized than in those who had not been hospitalized (e.g., intensive care unit admission, -0.35 SD; 95% CI, -0.49 to -0.20). Results of the analyses were similar to

Journal article

Zagkos L, Cronjé HT, Woolf B, de La Harpe R, Burgess S, Mantzoros CS, Elliott P, Yuan S, Larsson SC, Tzoulaki I, Gill Det al., 2024, Genetic investigation into the broad health implications of caffeine: evidence from phenome-wide, proteome-wide and metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization, BMC Medicine, Vol: 81, ISSN: 1741-7015

Background:Caffeine is one of the most utilized drugs in the world, yet its clinical effects are not fully understood. Circulating caffeine levels are influenced by the interplay between consumption behaviour and metabolism. This study aimed to investigate the effects of circulating caffeine levels by considering genetically predicted variation in caffeine metabolism.Methods:Leveraging genetic variants related to caffeine metabolism that affect its circulating levels, we investigated the clinical effects of plasma caffeine in a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS). We validated novel findings using a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework and explored the potential mechanisms underlying these effects in proteome-wide and metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization.Results:Higher levels of genetically predicted circulating caffeine among caffeine consumers were associated with a lower risk of obesity (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation increase in caffeine = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 0.95—0.98, p = 2.47 × 10−4), osteoarthrosis (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96—0.98, P=1.10 × 10−8) and osteoarthritis (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96 to 0.98, P = 1.09 × 10−6). Approximately one third of the protective effect of plasma caffeine on osteoarthritis risk was estimated to be mediated through lower bodyweight. Proteomic and metabolomic perturbations indicated lower chronic inflammation, improved lipid profiles, and altered protein and glycogen metabolism as potential biological mechanisms underlying these effects.Conclusions:We report novel evidence suggesting that long-term increases in circulating caffeine may reduce bodyweight and the risk of osteoarthrosis and osteoarthritis. We confirm prior genetic evidence of a protective effect of plasma caffeine on risk of overweight and obesity. Further clinical study is warranted to understand the translational relevance of these findings before clinical practice or lifestyle inte

Journal article

Yew YW, Chang BRQ, Mina T, Riboli E, Lee ES, Ngeow J, Elliott P, Chambers JC, Lee J, Loh Met al., 2024, Association of atopic dermatitis with depression and sleep quality in an Asian general population cohort of 8887 participants, Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology, ISSN: 0926-9959

Journal article

Bradfield JP, Kember RL, Ulrich A, Balkiyarova Z, Alyass A, Aris IM, Bell JA, Broadaway KA, Chen Z, Chai J-F, Davies NM, Fernandez-Orth D, Bustamante M, Fore R, Ganguli A, Heiskala A, Hottenga J-J, Íñiguez C, Kobes S, Leinonen J, Lowry E, Lyytikainen L-P, Mahajan A, Pitkänen N, Schnurr TM, Have CT, Strachan DP, Thiering E, Vogelezang S, Wade KH, Wang CA, Wong A, Holm LA, Chesi A, Choong C, Cruz M, Elliott P, Franks S, Frithioff-Bøjsøe C, Gauderman WJ, Glessner JT, Gilsanz V, Griesman K, Hanson RL, Kaakinen M, Kalkwarf H, Kelly A, Kindler J, Kähönen M, Lanca C, Lappe J, Lee NR, McCormack S, Mentch FD, Mitchell JA, Mononen N, Niinikoski H, Oken E, Pahkala K, Sim X, Teo Y-Y, Baier LJ, van Beijsterveldt T, Adair LS, Boomsma DI, de Geus E, Guxens M, Eriksson JG, Felix JF, Gilliland FD, Biobank PM, Hansen T, Hardy R, Hivert M-F, Holm J-C, Jaddoe VWV, Järvelin M-R, Lehtimäki T, Mackey DA, Meyre D, Mohlke KL, Mykkänen J, Oberfield S, Pennell CE, Perry JRB, Raitakari O, Rivadeneira F, Saw S-M, Sebert S, Shepherd JA, Standl M, Sørensen TIA, Timpson NJ, Torrent M, Willemsen G, Hypponen E, Power C, Early Growth Genetics Consortium, McCarthy MI, Freathy RM, Widén E, Hakonarson H, Prokopenko I, Voight BF, Zemel BS, Grant SFA, Cousminer DLet al., 2024, Trans-ancestral genome-wide association study of longitudinal pubertal height growth and shared heritability with adult health outcomes, Genome Biology, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1474-7596

BACKGROUND: Pubertal growth patterns correlate with future health outcomes. However, the genetic mechanisms mediating growth trajectories remain largely unknown. Here, we modeled longitudinal height growth with Super-Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) growth curve analysis on ~ 56,000 trans-ancestry samples with repeated height measurements from age 5 years to adulthood. We performed genetic analysis on six phenotypes representing the magnitude, timing, and intensity of the pubertal growth spurt. To investigate the lifelong impact of genetic variants associated with pubertal growth trajectories, we performed genetic correlation analyses and phenome-wide association studies in the Penn Medicine BioBank and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: Large-scale growth modeling enables an unprecedented view of adolescent growth across contemporary and 20th-century pediatric cohorts. We identify 26 genome-wide significant loci and leverage trans-ancestry data to perform fine-mapping. Our data reveals genetic relationships between pediatric height growth and health across the life course, with different growth trajectories correlated with different outcomes. For instance, a faster tempo of pubertal growth correlates with higher bone mineral density, HOMA-IR, fasting insulin, type 2 diabetes, and lung cancer, whereas being taller at early puberty, taller across puberty, and having quicker pubertal growth were associated with higher risk for atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSION: We report novel genetic associations with the tempo of pubertal growth and find that genetic determinants of growth are correlated with reproductive, glycemic, respiratory, and cardiac traits in adulthood. These results aid in identifying specific growth trajectories impacting lifelong health and show that there may not be a single "optimal" pubertal growth pattern.

Journal article

Allen NE, Lacey B, Lawlor DA, Pell JP, Gallacher J, Smeeth L, Elliott P, Matthews PM, Lyons RA, Whetton AD, Lucassen A, Hurles ME, Chapman M, Roddam AW, Fitzpatrick NK, Hansell AL, Hardy R, Marioni RE, O'Donnell VB, Williams J, Lindgren CM, Effingham M, Sellors J, Danesh J, Collins Ret al., 2024, Prospective study design and data analysis in UK Biobank., Sci Transl Med, Vol: 16

Population-based prospective studies, such as UK Biobank, are valuable for generating and testing hypotheses about the potential causes of human disease. We describe how UK Biobank's study design, data access policies, and approaches to statistical analysis can help to minimize error and improve the interpretability of research findings, with implications for other population-based prospective studies being established worldwide.

Journal article

Zagkos L, Dib M-J, Cronjé HT, Elliott P, Dehghan A, Tzoulaki I, Gill D, Daghlas Iet al., 2024, Cerebrospinal fluid C1-esterase inhibitor and tie-1 levels affect cognitive performance: evidence from proteome-wide mendelian randomization., Genes, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2073-4425

OBJECTIVE: The association of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein levels with cognitive function in the general population remains largely unexplored. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to query which CSF proteins may have potential causal effects on cognitive performance. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Genetic associations with CSF proteins were obtained from a genome-wide association study conducted in up to 835 European-ancestry individuals and for cognitive performance from a meta-analysis of GWAS including 257,841 European-ancestry individuals. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to test the effect of randomly allocated variation in 154 genetically predicted CSF protein levels on cognitive performance. Findings were validated by performing colocalization analyses and considering cognition-related phenotypes. RESULTS: Genetically predicted C1-esterase inhibitor levels in the CSF were associated with a better cognitive performance (SD units of cognitive performance per 1 log-relative fluorescence unit (RFU): 0.23, 95% confidence interval: 0.12 to 0.35, p = 7.91 × 10-5), while tyrosine-protein kinase receptor Tie-1 (sTie-1) levels were associated with a worse cognitive performance (-0.43, -0.62 to -0.23, p = 2.08 × 10-5). These findings were supported by colocalization analyses and by concordant effects on distinct cognition-related and brain-volume measures. CONCLUSIONS: Human genetics supports a role for the C1-esterase inhibitor and sTie-1 in cognitive performance.

Journal article

Gibson R, Aljuraiban GS, Oude-Griep LM, Vu T-H, Steffen LM, Appel LJ, Rodriguez BL, Daviglus ML, Elliott P, Van Horn L, Chan Qet al., 2023, Relationship of calcium and magnesium intakes with the dietary approaches to stop hypertension score and blood pressure: the International Study of Macro/micronutrients and Blood Pressure, Journal of Hypertension, ISSN: 0263-6352

OBJECTIVE: Research investigating calcium and magnesium intakes from the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) pattern and other sources in association with blood pressure is limited. We aimed to characterize sources/intake levels of calcium and magnesium in relation to overall diet quality (DASH-score) and determine modification effects with DASH score and blood pressure. METHODS: Cross-sectional United States data (average dietary and supplement intake from four 24 h recalls and eight blood pressure measurements) from two separate visits, 2195 men and women (40-59 years) in the International Study of Macro/Micronutrients and Blood Pressure were analysed. Food-based adherence to the DASH diet was estimated. Linear models tested associations between each 1-point DASH score with blood pressure. Participants were stratified by adherence to sex-specific recommended allowance for magnesium and calcium intakes. Effect-modification was tested across DASH-score quintiles and median of urinary sodium. RESULTS: DASH-score was inversely associated with SBP in fully adjusted models (-0.27; 95%CI: -0.38 to -0.15 mmHg). SBP was inversely associated with dietary calcium intake from DASH food groups: -1.54 (95% CI: -2.65 to -0.43) mmHg; calcium intake from other non-DASH food groups: -1.62 (95% CI: -2.94 to -0.29) mmHg. Dietary magnesium intake from DASH food groups (-1.59; 95% CI: -2.79, -0.40 mmHg) and from other non-DASH foods (-1.92; 95% CI: -3.31, -0.53 mmHg) was inversely associated with SBP. CONCLUSION: A higher DASH score showed a consistent association with lower BP suggesting a relationship between intakes of calcium and Mg with BP regardless of whether the source is part of the DASH diet or not, even when adjusted for supplement intakes.The INTERMAP is registered as NCT00005271 at www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Journal article

O'Farrell F, Aleyakpo B, Mustafa R, Jiang X, Pinto RC, Elliott P, Tzoulaki I, Dehghan A, Loh SHY, Barclay JW, Martins LM, Pazoki Ret al., 2023, Evidence for involvement of the alcohol consumption WDPCP gene in lipid metabolism, and liver cirrhosis, Scientific Reports, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2045-2322

Biological pathways between alcohol consumption and alcohol liver disease (ALD) are not fully understood. We selected genes with known effect on (1) alcohol consumption, (2) liver function, and (3) gene expression. Expression of the orthologs of these genes in Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster was suppressed using mutations and/or RNA interference (RNAi). In humans, association analysis, pathway analysis, and Mendelian randomization analysis were performed to identify metabolic changes due to alcohol consumption. In C. elegans, we found a reduction in locomotion rate after exposure to ethanol for RNAi knockdown of ACTR1B and MAPT. In Drosophila, we observed (1) a change in sedative effect of ethanol for RNAi knockdown of WDPCP, TENM2, GPN1, ARPC1B, and SCN8A, (2) a reduction in ethanol consumption for RNAi knockdown of TENM2, (3) a reduction in triradylglycerols (TAG) levels for RNAi knockdown of WDPCP, TENM2, and GPN1. In human, we observed (1) a link between alcohol consumption and several metabolites including TAG, (2) an enrichment of the candidate (alcohol-associated) metabolites within the linoleic acid (LNA) and alpha-linolenic acid (ALA) metabolism pathways, (3) a causal link between gene expression of WDPCP to liver fibrosis and liver cirrhosis. Our results imply that WDPCP might be involved in ALD.

Journal article

Yuan Y, Jin A, Duan P, Cao L, Wang H, Hu S, Li J, Feng X, Qiao Q, Zhang H, Zhang R, Li H, Gao P, Xie G, Yuan J, Cheng L, Wang S, Niu W, Elliott P, Gao R, Labarthe D, Wu Yet al., 2023, Experience with 2 years' intervention to progressively reduce salt supply to kitchens in elderly care facilities-challenges and further research: post hoc analysis of the DECIDE-Salt randomized clinical trial, BMC Medicine, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1741-7015

BACKGROUND: Progressive reduction of sodium intake is an attractive approach for addressing excessive salt intake, but evidence for this strategy in real practice is limited. We aimed to determine the feasibility, effectiveness, and safety of a progressive sodium intake reduction intervention in real-world setting. METHODS: We randomized 48 residential elderly care facilities in China, with 1612 participants aged 55 years and older, to either progressive reduction (PR, 24 facilities) or no reduction (NR, 24 facilities) of the supply of study salt to the kitchens of these facilities for 2 years. The primary efficacy outcome was systolic blood pressure (SBP) at any scheduled follow-up visit. Secondary efficacy outcomes included diastolic blood pressure (DBP) at any scheduled follow-up visit, and major adverse cardiovascular events (comprising non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, hospitalized non-fatal heart failure, or vascular death) and total mortality. The perception of food saltiness, the addition of out-of-study salt in meals, and 24-h urinary sodium excretion were used as process indicators. RESULTS: Pre-specified analysis per randomization found no effect of the intervention on the 2-year overall mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and any other outcomes. However, post hoc analysis showed that the intervention effect on blood pressure varied over multiple follow-up visits (p for interaction < 0.046) and presented favorable differences at the 24-month visit (SBP =  - 3.0 mmHg, 95%CI =  - 5.6, - 0.5; p = 0.020; DBP =  - 2.0 mmHg, 95%CI - 3.4, - 0.63; p = 0.004). The effect on 24-h sodium was non-significant (- 8.4 mmol, 95%CI =  - 21.8 to 4.9, p = 0.216), though fewer participants with NR th

Journal article

Wood AC, Graca G, Gadgil M, Senn MK, Allison MA, Tzoulaki I, Greenland P, Ebbels T, Elliott P, Goodarzi MO, Tracy R, Rotter JI, Herrington Det al., 2023, Untargeted metabolomic analysis investigating links between unprocessed red meat intake and markers of inflammation., American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, Vol: 118, Pages: 989-999, ISSN: 0002-9165

BACKGROUND: Whether red meat consumption is associated with higher inflammation or confounded by increased adiposity remains unclear. Plasma metabolites capture the effects of diet after food is processed, digested, and absorbed, and correlate with markers of inflammation, so they can help clarify diet-health relationships. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether any metabolites associated with red meat intake are also associated with inflammation. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of observational data from older adults (52.84% women, mean age 63 ± 0.3 y) participating in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Dietary intake was assessed by food-frequency questionnaire, alongside C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-2, interleukin-6, fibrinogen, homocysteine, and tumor necrosis factor alpha, and untargeted proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR) metabolomic features. Associations between these variables were examined using linear regression models, adjusted for demographic factors, lifestyle behaviors, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: In analyses that adjust for BMI, neither processed nor unprocessed forms of red meat were associated with any markers of inflammation (all P > 0.01). However, when adjusting for BMI, unprocessed red meat was inversely associated with spectral features representing the metabolite glutamine (sentinel hit: β = -0.09 ± 0.02, P = 2.0 × 10-5), an amino acid which was also inversely associated with CRP level (β = -0.11 ± 0.01, P = 3.3 × 10-10). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses were unable to support a relationship between either processed or unprocessed red meat and inflammation, over and above any confounding by BMI. Glutamine, a plasma correlate of lower unprocessed red meat intake, was associated with lower CRP levels. The differences in diet-inflammation associations, compared with diet metabolite-inflammation associations, warrant further investigation to understand the extent that these

Journal article

Beaumont RN, Flatley C, Vaudel M, Wu X, Chen J, Moen G-H, Skotte L, Helgeland O, Sole-Navais P, Banasik K, Albinana C, Ronkainen J, Fadista J, Stinson SE, Trajanoska K, Wang CA, Westergaard D, Srinivasan S, Sanchez-Soriano C, Bilbao JR, Allard C, Groleau M, Kuulasmaa T, Leirer DJ, White F, Jacques P-E, Cheng H, Hao K, Andreassen OA, Asvold BO, Atalay M, Bhatta L, Bouchard L, Brumpton BM, Brunak S, Bybjerg-Grauholm J, Ebbing C, Elliott P, Engelbrechtsen L, Erikstrup C, Estarlich M, Franks S, Gaillard R, Geller F, Grove J, Hougaard DM, Kajantie E, Morgen CS, Nohr EA, Nyegaard M, Palmer CNA, Pedersen OB, Rivadeneira F, Sebert S, Shields BM, Stoltenberg C, Surakka I, Thorner LW, Ullum H, Vaarasmaki M, Vilhjalmsson BJ, Willer CJ, Lakka TA, Gybel-Brask D, Bustamante M, Hansen T, Pearson ER, Reynolds RM, Ostrowski SR, Pennell CE, Jaddoe VWV, Felix JF, Hattersley AT, Melbye M, Lawlor DA, Hveem K, Werge T, Nielsen HS, Magnus P, Evans DM, Jacobsson B, Jaervelin M-R, Zhang G, Hivert M-F, Johansson S, Freathy RM, Feenstra B, Njolstad PRet al., 2023, Genome-wide association study of placental weight identifies distinct and shared genetic influences between placental and fetal growth, Nature Genetics, Vol: 55, Pages: 1807-1817, ISSN: 1061-4036

A well-functioning placenta is essential for fetal and maternal health throughout pregnancy. Using placental weight as a proxy for placental growth, we report genome-wide association analyses in the fetal (n = 65,405), maternal (n = 61,228) and paternal (n = 52,392) genomes, yielding 40 independent association signals. Twenty-six signals are classified as fetal, four maternal and three fetal and maternal. A maternal parent-of-origin effect is seen near KCNQ1. Genetic correlation and colocalization analyses reveal overlap with birth weight genetics, but 12 loci are classified as predominantly or only affecting placental weight, with connections to placental development and morphology, and transport of antibodies and amino acids. Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that fetal genetically mediated higher placental weight is causally associated with preeclampsia risk and shorter gestational duration. Moreover, these analyses support the role of fetal insulin in regulating placental weight, providing a key link between fetal and placental growth.

Journal article

Atchison C, Davies B, Cooper E, Lound A, Whitaker M, Hampshire A, Azor A, Donnelly C, Chadeau M, Cooke G, Ward H, Elliott Pet al., 2023, Long-term impact of COVID-19 among 242,712 adults in England, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a lasting impact on health and well-being. We compare current self-reported health, quality of life and symptom profiles for people with ongoing symptoms following COVID-19 to those who have never tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and those who have recovered from COVID-19. Overall, 276,840/800,000 (34·6%) of invited participants took part. Mental health and health-related quality of life were worse among participants with ongoing persistent symptoms post-COVID compared with those who had never had COVID-19 or had recovered. In this study, median duration of COVID-related symptoms (N = 130,251) was 1·3 weeks (inter-quartile range 6 days to 2 weeks), with 7·5% and 5·2% reporting ongoing symptoms ≥12 weeks and ≥52 weeks respectively. Female sex, ≥1 comorbidity and being infected when Wild-type variant was dominant were associated with higher probability of symptoms lasting ≥12 weeks and longer recovery time in those with persistent symptoms. Although COVID-19 is usually of short duration, some adults experience persistent and burdensome illness.

Journal article

Willems SM, Ng NHJ, Fernandez J, Fine RS, Wheeler E, Wessel J, Kitajima H, Marenne G, Sim X, Yaghootkar H, Wang S, Chen S, Chen Y, Chen Y-DI, Grarup N, Li-Gao R, Varga TV, Asimit JL, Feng S, Strawbridge RJ, Kleinbrink EL, Ahluwalia TS, An P, Appel EV, Arking DE, Auvinen J, Bielak LF, Bihlmeyer NA, Bork-Jensen J, Brody JA, Campbell A, Chu AY, Davies G, Demirkan A, Floyd JS, Giulianini F, Guo X, Gustafsson S, Jackson AU, Jakobsdottir J, Jarvelin M-R, Jensen RA, Kanoni S, Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi S, Li M, Lu Y, Luan J, Manning AK, Marten J, Meidtner K, Mook-Kanamori DO, Muka T, Pistis G, Prins B, Rice KM, Sanna S, Smith AV, Smith JA, Southam L, Stringham HM, Tragante V, van der Laan SW, Warren HR, Yao J, Yiorkas AM, Zhang W, Zhao W, Graff M, Highland HM, Justice AE, Marouli E, Medina-Gomez C, Afaq S, Alhejily WA, Amin N, Asselbergs FW, Bonnycastle LL, Bots ML, Brandslund I, Chen J, Danesh J, de Mutsert R, Dehghan A, Ebeling T, Elliott P, Farmaki A-E, Faul JD, Franks PW, Franks S, Fritsche A, Gjesing AP, Goodarzi MO, Gudnason V, Hallmans G, Harris TB, Herzig K-H, Hivert M-F, Jørgensen T, Jørgensen ME, Jousilahti P, Kajantie E, Karaleftheri M, Kardia SLR, Kinnunen L, Koistinen HA, Komulainen P, Kovacs P, Kuusisto J, Laakso M, Lange LA, Launer LJ, Leong A, Lindström J, Manning Fox JE, Männistö S, Maruthur NM, Moilanen L, Mulas A, Nalls MA, Neville M, Pankow JS, Pattie A, Petersen ERB, Puolijoki H, Rasheed A, Redmond P, Renström F, Roden M, Saleheen D, Saltevo J, Savonen K, Sebert S, Skaaby T, Small KS, Stančáková A, Stokholm J, Strauch K, Tai E-S, Taylor KD, Thuesen BH, Tönjes A, Tsafantakis E, Tuomi T, Tuomilehto J, Uusitupa M, Vääräsmäki M, Vaartjes I, Zoledziewska M, Abecasis G, Balkau B, Bisgaard H, Blakemore AI, Blüher M, Boeing H, Boerwinkle E, Bønnelykke K, Bottinger EP, Caulfield MJ, Chambers JC, Chasman DI, Cheng C-Y, Collins FS, Coresh J, Cucca F, de Borst GJ, Deary IJ, Dedoussis G, Deloukas P, den Ruijter HM, Dupuis J, Evans MK, Ferrannini E, Franco OH, Grallert Het al., 2023, Large-scale exome array summary statistics resources for glycemic traits to aid effector gene prioritization, Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 8, Pages: 483-483

<ns3:p>Background Genome-wide association studies for glycemic traits have identified hundreds of loci associated with these biomarkers of glucose homeostasis. Despite this success, the challenge remains to link variant associations to genes, and underlying biological pathways. Methods To identify coding variant associations which may pinpoint effector genes at both novel and previously established genome-wide association loci, we performed meta-analyses of exome-array studies for four glycemic traits: glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, up to 144,060 participants), fasting glucose (FG, up to 129,665 participants), fasting insulin (FI, up to 104,140) and 2hr glucose post-oral glucose challenge (2hGlu, up to 57,878). In addition, we performed network and pathway analyses. Results Single-variant and gene-based association analyses identified coding variant associations at more than 60 genes, which when combined with other datasets may be useful to nominate effector genes. Network and pathway analyses identified pathways related to insulin secretion, zinc transport and fatty acid metabolism. HbA1c associations were strongly enriched in pathways related to blood cell biology. Conclusions Our results provided novel glycemic trait associations and highlighted pathways implicated in glycemic regulation. Exome-array summary statistic results are being made available to the scientific community to enable further discoveries.</ns3:p>

Journal article

Wood AC, Goodarzi MO, Senn MK, Gadgil MD, Graca G, Allison MA, Tzoulaki I, Mi MY, Greenland P, Ebbels T, Elliott P, Tracy RP, Herrington DM, Rotter JIet al., 2023, Associations between metabolomic biomarkers of avocado intake and glycemia in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis, The Journal of Nutrition, Vol: 153, Pages: 2797-2807, ISSN: 0022-3166

BACKGROUND: Avocado consumption is linked to better glucose homeostasis, but small associations suggest potential population heterogeneity. Metabolomic data capture the effects of food intake after digestion and metabolism, thus accounting for individual differences in these processes. OBJECTIVES: To identify metabolomic biomarkers of avocado intake and to examine their associations with glycemia. METHODS: Baseline data from 6224 multi-ethnic older adults (62% female) included self-reported avocado intake, fasting glucose and insulin, and untargeted plasma proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomic features (metabolomic data were available for a randomly selected subset; N = 3438). Subsequently, incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) was assessed over an ∼18 y follow-up period. A metabolome-wide association study of avocado consumption status (consumer compared with nonconsumer) was conducted, and the relationship of these features with glycemia via cross-sectional associations with fasting insulin and glucose and longitudinal associations with incident T2D was examined. RESULTS: Three highly-correlated spectral features were associated with avocado intake at metabolome-wide significance levels (P < 5.3 ∗ 10-7) and combined into a single biomarker. We did not find evidence that these features were additionally associated with overall dietary quality, nor with any of 47 other food groups (all P > 0.001), supporting their suitability as a biomarker of avocado intake. Avocado intake showed a modest association only with lower fasting insulin (β = -0.07 +/- 0.03, P = 0.03), an association that was attenuated to nonsignificance when additionally controlling for body mass index (kg/m2). However, our biomarker of avocado intake was strongly associated with lower fasting glucose (β = -0.22 +/- 0.02, P < 2.0 ∗ 10-16), lower fasting insulin (β = -0.17 +/- 0.02, P < 2.0 ∗ 10-16), and a lower incidence of T2D (hazard ratio: 0.68; 0

Journal article

Ward H, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Davies B, Ashby D, Darzi A, Chadeau-Hyam M, Riley S, Donnelly CA, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Elliott Pet al., 2023, Design and implementation of a national program to monitor the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in England using self-testing: the REACT-2 study, American Journal of Public Health, Pages: e1-e9, ISSN: 0090-0036

Data System. The UK Department of Health and Social Care funded the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2 (REACT-2) study to estimate community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG (immunoglobulin G) antibodies in England. Data Collection/Processing. We obtained random cross-sectional samples of adults from the National Health Service (NHS) patient list (near-universal coverage). We sent participants a lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) self-test, and they reported the result online. Overall, 905 991 tests were performed (28.9% response) over 6 rounds of data collection (June 2020-May 2021). Data Analysis/Dissemination. We produced weighted estimates of LFIA test positivity (validated against neutralizing antibodies), adjusted for test performance, at local, regional, and national levels and by age, sex, and ethnic group and area-level deprivation score. In each round, fieldwork occurred over 2 weeks, with results reported to policymakers the following week. We disseminated results as preprints and peer-reviewed journal publications. Public Health Implications. REACT-2 estimated the scale and variation in antibody prevalence over time. Community self-testing and -reporting produced rapid insights into the changing course of the pandemic and the impact of vaccine rollout, with implications for future surveillance. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 21, 2023:e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307381).

Journal article

Reedijk M, Portengen L, Auvinen A, Kojo K, Heinävaara S, Feychting M, Tettamanti G, Hillert L, Elliott P, Toledano M, Smith R, Heller J, Schüz J, Deltour I, Harbo Poulsen A, Johansen C, Verheij R, Peeters P, Rookus M, Traini E, Huss A, Kromhout H, Vermeulen Ret al., 2023, Regression calibration of self-reported mobile phone use to optimize quantitative risk estimation in the COSMOS study, American Journal of Epidemiology, ISSN: 0002-9262

Journal article

Lagou V, Jiang L, Ulrich A, Zudina L, González KSG, Balkhiyarova Z, Faggian A, Maina JG, Chen S, Todorov PV, Sharapov S, David A, Marullo L, Mägi R, Rujan R-M, Ahlqvist E, Thorleifsson G, Gao Η, Εvangelou Ε, Benyamin B, Scott RA, Isaacs A, Zhao JH, Willems SM, Johnson T, Gieger C, Grallert H, Meisinger C, Müller-Nurasyid M, Strawbridge RJ, Goel A, Rybin D, Albrecht E, Jackson AU, Stringham HM, Corrêa IR, Farber-Eger E, Steinthorsdottir V, Uitterlinden AG, Munroe PB, Brown MJ, Schmidberger J, Holmen O, Thorand B, Hveem K, Wilsgaard T, Mohlke KL, Wang Z, GWA-PA Consortium, Shmeliov A, den Hoed M, Loos RJF, Kratzer W, Haenle M, Koenig W, Boehm BO, Tan TM, Tomas A, Salem V, Barroso I, Tuomilehto J, Boehnke M, Florez JC, Hamsten A, Watkins H, Njølstad I, Wichmann H-E, Caulfield MJ, Khaw K-T, van Duijn CM, Hofman A, Wareham NJ, Langenberg C, Whitfield JB, Martin NG, Montgomery G, Scapoli C, Tzoulaki I, Elliott P, Thorsteinsdottir U, Stefansson K, Brittain EL, McCarthy MI, Froguel P, Sexton PM, Wootten D, Groop L, Dupuis J, Meigs JB, Deganutti G, Demirkan A, Pers TH, Reynolds CA, Aulchenko YS, Kaakinen MA, Jones B, Prokopenko I, Meta-Analysis of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium MAGICet al., 2023, GWAS of random glucose in 476,326 individuals provide insights into diabetes pathophysiology, complications and treatment stratification, Nature Genetics, Vol: 55, Pages: 1448-1461, ISSN: 1061-4036

Conventional measurements of fasting and postprandial blood glucose levels investigated in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) cannot capture the effects of DNA variability on 'around the clock' glucoregulatory processes. Here we show that GWAS meta-analysis of glucose measurements under nonstandardized conditions (random glucose (RG)) in 476,326 individuals of diverse ancestries and without diabetes enables locus discovery and innovative pathophysiological observations. We discovered 120 RG loci represented by 150 distinct signals, including 13 with sex-dimorphic effects, two cross-ancestry and seven rare frequency signals. Of these, 44 loci are new for glycemic traits. Regulatory, glycosylation and metagenomic annotations highlight ileum and colon tissues, indicating an underappreciated role of the gastrointestinal tract in controlling blood glucose. Functional follow-up and molecular dynamics simulations of lower frequency coding variants in glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R), a type 2 diabetes treatment target, reveal that optimal selection of GLP-1R agonist therapy will benefit from tailored genetic stratification. We also provide evidence from Mendelian randomization that lung function is modulated by blood glucose and that pulmonary dysfunction is a diabetes complication. Our investigation yields new insights into the biology of glucose regulation, diabetes complications and pathways for treatment stratification.

Journal article

Whitaker M, Davies B, Atchison C, Barclay W, Ashby D, Darzi A, Riley S, Cooke G, Donnelly C, Chadeau M, Elliott P, Ward Het al., 2023, SARS-CoV-2 rapid antibody test results and subsequent risk of hospitalisation and death in 361,801 people, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723

The value of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) tests for estimating individual disease risk is unclear. The REACT-2 study in England, UK, obtained self-administered SARS-CoV-2 LFIA test results from 361,801 adults in January-May 2021. Here, we link to routine data on subsequent hospitalisation (to September 2021), and death (to December 2021). Among those who had received one or more vaccines, a negative LFIA is associated with increased risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19 (HR: 2.73 [95% confidence interval: 1.15,6.48]), death (all-cause) (HR: 1.59, 95% CI:1.07, 2.37), and death with COVID-19 as underlying cause (20.6 [1.83,232]). For people designated at high risk from COVID-19, who had received one or more vaccines, there is an additional risk of all-cause mortality of 1.9 per 1000 for those testing antibody negative compared to positive. However, the LFIA does not provide substantial predictive information over and above that which is available from detailed sociodemographic and health-related variables. Nonetheless, this simple test provides a marker which could be a valuable addition to understanding population and individual-level risk.

Journal article

Okami Y, Chan Q, Miura K, Kadota A, Elliott P, Masaki K, Okayama A, Okuda N, Yoshita K, Miyagawa N, Okamura T, Sakata K, Saitoh S, Sakurai M, Nakagawa H, Stamler J, Ueshima Het al., 2023, Small high-density lipoprotein and omega-3 fatty acid intake differentiates Japanese and Japanese-Americans: the INTERLIPID study, Journal of Atherosclerosis and Thrombosis, Vol: 30, Pages: 884-906, ISSN: 1340-3478

Aim: To identify the most differentiated serum lipids, especially concerning particle size and fractions, between Japanese living in Japan and Japanese-Americans in Hawaii, in the absence of possible genetic confounders, and cross-sectionally examine the associated modifiable lifestyle factors.Methods: Overall, 1,241 (aged 40–59 years) Japanese living in Japan and Japanese-Americans in Hawaii were included. We quantified 130 serum lipid profiles (VLDL 1-5, IDL, LDL 1-6, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] 1-4, and their subfractions) using Bruker’s 1H-nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometer for the primary outcome. Modifiable lifestyle factors included body mass index (BMI), physical activity, alcohol and smoking habits, and 70 nutrient parameters. We evaluated the different lipids between the groups using partial least squares-discriminant analysis and association between extracted lipids and lifestyle factors using multivariable linear regression analysis.Results: Concentrations of HDL4, HDL with the smallest particle size, were lower in Japanese than in Japanese-Americans of both sexes. Higher fish-derived omega-3 fatty acid intake and lower alcohol intake were associated with lower HDL4 concentrations. A 1% higher kcal intake of total omega-3 fatty acids was associated with a 9.8-mg/dL lower HDL4. Fish-derived docosapentaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid intake were inversely associated with HDL4 concentration. There was no relationship between country, sex, age, or BMI.Conclusions: Japanese and Japanese-Americans can be differentiated based on HDL4 concentration. High fish intake among the Japanese may contribute to their lower HDL4 concentration. Thus, HDL particle size may be an important clinical marker for coronary artery diseases or a fish consumption biomarker.

Journal article

Eales O, de Oliveira Martins L, Page A, Wang H, Bodinier B, Tang D, Haw D, Jonnerby LJA, Atchison C, Ashby D, Barclay W, Taylor G, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Riley S, Elliott P, Donnelly C, Chadeau Met al., 2023, Dynamics and scale of the SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron epidemic in England, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.

Journal article

Yew YW, Mina T, Ng HK, Lam BCC, Riboli E, Lee ES, Lee J, Ngeow J, Elliott P, Thng STG, Chambers JC, Loh Met al., 2023, Investigating causal relationships between obesity and skin barrier function in a multi-ethnic Asian general population cohort, International Journal of Obesity, Vol: 47, Pages: 963-969, ISSN: 0307-0565

BACKGROUND: Skin diseases impact significantly on the quality of life and psychology of patients. Obesity has been observed as a risk factor for skin diseases. Skin epidermal barrier dysfunctions are typical manifestations across several dermatological disturbances. OBJECTIVES: We aim to establish the association between obesity and skin physiology measurements and investigate whether obesity may play a possible causal role on skin barrier dysfunction. METHODS: We investigated the relationship of obesity with skin physiology measurements, namely transepidermal water loss (TEWL), skin surface moisture and skin pH in an Asian population cohort (n = 9990). To assess for a possible causal association between body mass index (BMI) and skin physiology measurements, we performed Mendelian Randomization (MR), along with subsequent additional analyses to assess the potential causal impact of known socioeconomic and comorbidities of obesity on TEWL. RESULTS: Every 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a 0.221% (95%CI: 0.144-0.298) increase in TEWL (P = 2.82E-08), a 0.336% (95%CI: 0.148-0.524) decrease in skin moisture (P = 4.66E-04) and a 0.184% (95%CI: 0.144-0.224) decrease in pH (P = 1.36E-19), adjusting for age, gender, and ethnicity. Relationships for both TEWL and pH with BMI remained strong (Beta 0.354; 95%CI: 0.189-0.520 and Beta -0.170; 95%CI: -0.253 to -0.087, respectively) even after adjusting for known confounders, with MR experiments further supporting BMI's possible causal relationship with TEWL. Based on additional MR performed, none of the socioeconomic and comorbidities of obesity investigated are likely to have possible causal relationships with TEWL. CONCLUSION: We establish strong association of BMI with TEWL and skin pH, with MR results suggestive of a possible causal relationship of obesity with TEWL. It emphasizes the potential impact of obesity on skin barrier function and therefore op

Journal article

Atchison C, Whitaker M, Donnelly C, Chadeau-Hyam M, Riley S, Darzi A, Ashby D, Barclay W, Cooke G, Elliott P, Ward Het al., 2023, Characteristics and predictors of persistent symptoms post COVID-19 in children and young people: a large community cross-sectional study in England, Archives of Disease in Childhood, Vol: 108, ISSN: 0003-9888

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of, and associated risk factors for, persistent symptoms post-COVID-19 among children aged 5–17 years in England.Design: Serial cross-sectional study.Setting: Rounds 10–19 (March 2021 to March 2022) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 study (monthly cross-sectional surveys of random samples of the population in England).Study population: Children aged 5–17 years in the community.Predictors: Age, sex, ethnicity, presence of a pre-existing health condition, index of multiple deprivation, COVID-19 vaccination status and dominant UK circulating SARS-CoV-2 variant at time of symptom onset.Main outcome measures: Prevalence of persistent symptoms, reported as those lasting ≥3 months post-COVID-19.Results: Overall, 4.4% (95% CI 3.7 to 5.1) of 3173 5–11 year-olds and 13.3% (95% CI 12.5 to 14.1) of 6886 12–17 year-olds with prior symptomatic infection reported at least one symptom lasting ≥3 months post-COVID-19, of whom 13.5% (95% CI 8.4 to 20.9) and 10.9% (95% CI 9.0 to 13.2), respectively, reported their ability to carry out day-to-day activities was reduced ‘a lot’ due to their symptoms. The most common symptoms among participants with persistent symptoms were persistent coughing (27.4%) and headaches (25.4%) in children aged 5–11 years and loss or change of sense of smell (52.2%) and taste (40.7%) in participants aged 12–17 years. Higher age and having a pre-existing health condition were associated with higher odds of reporting persistent symptoms.Conclusions: One in 23 5–11 year-olds and one in eight 12–17 year-olds post-COVID-19 report persistent symptoms lasting ≥3 months, of which one in nine report a large impact on performing day-to-day activities.

Journal article

Huffman JE, Nicolas J, Hahn J, Heath AS, Raffield LM, Yanek LR, Brody JA, Thibord F, Almasy L, Bartz TM, Bielak LF, Bowler RP, Carrasquilla GD, Chasman DI, Chen M-H, Emmert DB, Ghanbari M, Haessle J, Hottenga J-J, Kleber ME, Le N-Q, Lee J, Lewis JP, Li-Gao R, Luan J, Malmberg A, Mangino M, Marioni RE, Martinez-Perez A, Pankratz N, Polasek O, Richmond A, Rodriguez BA, Rotter JI, Steri M, Suchon P, Trompet S, Weiss S, Zare M, Auer P, Cho MH, Christofidou P, Davies G, de Geus E, Deleuze J-F, Delgado GE, Ekunwe L, Faraday N, Gögele M, Greinacher A, He G, Howard T, Joshi PK, Kilpeläinen TO, Lahti J, Linneberg A, Naitza S, Noordam R, Paüls-Vergés F, Rich SS, Rosendaal FR, Rudan I, Ryan KA, Souto JC, van Rooij FJ, Wang H, Zhao W, Becker LC, Beswick A, Brown MR, Cade BE, Campbell H, Cho K, Crapo JD, Curran JE, de Maat MP, Doyle M, Elliott P, Floyd JS, Fuchsberger C, Grarup N, Guo X, Harris SE, Hou L, Kolcic I, Kooperberg C, Menni C, Nauck M, O'Connell JR, Orrù V, Psaty BM, Räikkönen K, Smith JA, Soria JM, Stott DJ, van Hylckama Vlieg A, Watkins H, Willemsen G, Wilson P, Ben-Shlomo Y, Blangero J, Boomsma D, Cox SR, Dehghan A, Eriksson JG, Fiorillo E, Fornage M, Hansen T, Hayward C, Ikram MA, Jukema JW, Kardia SL, Lange LA, März W, Mathias RA, Mitchell BD, Mook-Kanamori DO, Morange P-E, Pedersen O, Pramstaller PP, Redline S, Reiner A, Ridker PM, Silverman EK, Spector TD, Völker U, Wareham N, Wilson JF, Yao J, VA Million Veteran Program, NHLBI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine TOPMed Consortium, Trégouët D-A, Johnson AD, Wolberg AS, de Vries PS, Sabater-Lleal M, Morrison AC, Smith NLet al., 2023, Whole genome analysis of plasma fibrinogen reveals population-differentiated genetic regulators with putative liver roles., medRxiv

UNLABELLED: Genetic studies have identified numerous regions associated with plasma fibrinogen levels in Europeans, yet missing heritability and limited inclusion of non-Europeans necessitates further studies with improved power and sensitivity. Compared with array-based genotyping, whole genome sequencing (WGS) data provides better coverage of the genome and better representation of non-European variants. To better understand the genetic landscape regulating plasma fibrinogen levels, we meta-analyzed WGS data from the NHLBI's Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program (n=32,572), with array-based genotype data from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) Consortium (n=131,340) imputed to the TOPMed or Haplotype Reference Consortium panel. We identified 18 loci that have not been identified in prior genetic studies of fibrinogen. Of these, four are driven by common variants of small effect with reported MAF at least 10% higher in African populations. Three ( SERPINA1, ZFP36L2 , and TLR10) signals contain predicted deleterious missense variants. Two loci, SOCS3 and HPN , each harbor two conditionally distinct, non-coding variants. The gene region encoding the protein chain subunits ( FGG;FGB;FGA ), contains 7 distinct signals, including one novel signal driven by rs28577061, a variant common (MAF=0.180) in African reference panels but extremely rare (MAF=0.008) in Europeans. Through phenome-wide association studies in the VA Million Veteran Program, we found associations between fibrinogen polygenic risk scores and thrombotic and inflammatory disease phenotypes, including an association with gout. Our findings demonstrate the utility of WGS to augment genetic discovery in diverse populations and offer new insights for putative mechanisms of fibrinogen regulation. KEY POINTS: Largest and most diverse genetic study of plasma fibrinogen identifies 54 regions (18 novel), housing 69 conditionally distinct variants (20 novel).Suff

Journal article

Bauermeister S, Phatak M, Sparks K, Sargent L, Griswold M, McHugh C, Nalls M, Young S, Bauermeister J, Elliott P, Steptoe A, Porteous D, Dufouil C, Gallacher Jet al., 2023, Evaluating the harmonisation potential of diverse cohort datasets, European Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 38, Pages: 605-615, ISSN: 0393-2990

Data discovery, the ability to find datasets relevant to an analysis, increases scientific opportunity, improves rigour and accelerates activity. Rapid growth in the depth, breadth, quantity and availability of data provides unprecedented opportunities and challenges for data discovery. A potential tool for increasing the efficiency of data discovery, particularly across multiple datasets is data harmonisation.A set of 124 variables, identified as being of broad interest to neurodegeneration, were harmonised using the C-Surv data model. Harmonisation strategies used were simple calibration, algorithmic transformation and standardisation to the Z-distribution. Widely used data conventions, optimised for inclusiveness rather than aetiological precision, were used as harmonisation rules. The harmonisation scheme was applied to data from four diverse population cohorts.Of the 120 variables that were found in the datasets, correspondence between the harmonised data schema and cohort-specific data models was complete or close for 111 (93%). For the remainder, harmonisation was possible with a marginal a loss of granularity.Although harmonisation is not an exact science, sufficient comparability across datasets was achieved to enable data discovery with relatively little loss of informativeness. This provides a basis for further work extending harmonisation to a larger variable list, applying the harmonisation to further datasets, and incentivising the development of data discovery tools.

Journal article

Eales O, Haw D, Wang H, Atchison C, Ashby D, Cooke GS, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Donnelly CA, Chadeau-Hyam M, Elliott P, Riley Set al., 2023, Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalisation and infection fatality ratios over 23 months in England, PLoS Biology, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-21, ISSN: 1544-9173

The relationship between prevalence of infection and severe outcomes such as hospitalisation and death changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reliable estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and infection hospitalisation ratio (IHR) along with the time-delay between infection and hospitalisation/death can inform forecasts of the numbers/timing of severe outcomes and allow healthcare services to better prepare for periods of increased demand. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study estimated swab positivity for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in England approximately monthly from May 2020 to March 2022. Here, we analyse the changing relationship between prevalence of swab positivity and the IFR and IHR over this period in England, using publicly available data for the daily number of deaths and hospitalisations, REACT-1 swab positivity data, time-delay models, and Bayesian P-spline models. We analyse data for all age groups together, as well as in 2 subgroups: those aged 65 and over and those aged 64 and under. Additionally, we analysed the relationship between swab positivity and daily case numbers to estimate the case ascertainment rate of England's mass testing programme. During 2020, we estimated the IFR to be 0.67% and the IHR to be 2.6%. By late 2021/early 2022, the IFR and IHR had both decreased to 0.097% and 0.76%, respectively. The average case ascertainment rate over the entire duration of the study was estimated to be 36.1%, but there was some significant variation in continuous estimates of the case ascertainment rate. Continuous estimates of the IFR and IHR of the virus were observed to increase during the periods of Alpha and Delta's emergence. During periods of vaccination rollout, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, the IFR and IHR decreased. During 2020, we estimated a time-lag of 19 days between hospitalisation and swab positivity, and 26 days between deaths

Journal article

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