Imperial College London


Faculty of EngineeringDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Reader in Engineering Seismology & Earthquake Engineering



+44 (0)20 7594 7916p.stafford




Ms Ruth Bello +44 (0)20 7594 6040




321Skempton BuildingSouth Kensington Campus






Earthquake Loss Estimation Supported by the Willis Research Network

Development of methodologies for regional earthquake loss estimation. In particular, refining current approaches to the earthquake loss estimation for use in the reinsurance industry. This ongoing work is conducted as part of the Willis Research Network (WRN), an international network of top researchers in fields related to natural catastophes. Further details of this network may be found at:


Development of Empirical Ground-Motion Models

Development of empirical models for measure of earthquake-induced ground-shaking using physically based functional forms and modern regression and optimization procedures. Research to date has focused upon the development of models for the following ground-motion measures:

  • Fourier amplitude spectrum
  • Arias intensity
  • Pseudo-spectral acceleration
  • Strong-motion Duration (Significant, Bracketed and Uniform)
  • Response spectral ordinates for damping ratios other than 5% of critical

Arias Intensity Predictions 


Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)

Application and development of state-of-the-art procedures for conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Current interest in implementing Vector-valued PSHA for combinations of ground-motion measures.



Scaling & Matching of Earthquake Accelerograms

Development of methods for selecting, scaling, modifying and matching natural earthquake accelerograms for input into structural time-domain analyses. Current work is focussed upon the characterisation of the distribution of inelastic response due to accelerograms selected on the basis of various scaling and matching criteria.



Stochastic Modelling of Seismic Response

This work is concerned with the stochastic characterisation of earthquake strong-ground motion for use within probabilistic methods for estimating structural response. Stochastic characterisations of earthquake ground-motion offer many statistical benefits over their natural counterparts but are often viewed with a significant degree of skepticism. This skepticism arises largely from the inability of current stochastic approaches for generating artificial accelerograms to fully capture the true nature of earthquake ground-motion. The research underway on this issue aims to refine existing approaches for the stochastic characterisation of earthquake excitation.

Example Envelope Predictions

Research Student Supervision

Singh Bora,S, Computation of response spectra from an adaptive Fourier spectrum perspective. Commenced.

Ramos,C, Structural behaviour and design criteria of innovative footbridges. Commenced.

Lessi,A, Optimal treatment of nonlinear site response within probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Commenced.

Kumar,M, Inelastic Seismic Response Assessment of Moment Resisting Steel Frames. Completed.

Dorra,E, An earthquake economic loss model for Egypt: national and international implications. Completed.

Arumugam,A, Motions from global subduction zone earthquakes and seismic risk analysis for Malaysia. Commenced

Modica,A, Implementation of vector fragility functions within Earthquake Loss Estimation. Completed.

Mendis,R, The Re-evaluation of Earthquake Actions for Displacement-based Seismic Design. Completed

Sgobba,S, An evolutionary stochastic ground-motion model for stochastic structural dynamics. Completed.

Foulser-Piggott,R, The impact of ground motion uncertainty on earthquake loss estimation. Completed.

Tsingopoulou,P, Enhanced characterisation of ground-motion for Earthquake Loss Estimation. Commenced

Aldama Bustos,G, Exploratory Study of Parameter Sensitivity, Representation of Results for PSHA. Completed

Alarcon,JE, Estimation of Duration, Number of Cycles, Peak Ground Velocity, PGA and Spectra. Completed