I am Head of the Modelling & Economics Unit in the Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance & Control (CIDSC) at Public Health England, and I have a part-time position in the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, at Imperial College London.I am also Deputy Director of the new NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology at Imperial College London in partnership with Public Health England.
The CIDSC Modelling & Economics Unit has a broad range of interests in infectious diseases. My personal research interests include health systems research, statistical analysis and mathematical modelling of the epidemiology of, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions against, sexually transmitted infections (including HIV), tuberculosis, and influenza.
Work on pandemic influenza includes the INfluENCE project: www.influenceproject.org.
I participate in the UK Department of Health's Ebola modelling group, and its scientific pandemic influenza modelling subgroup (SPI-M). During the 2009-10 pandemic I was a member of the WHO Informal Network for Mathematical Modelling of H1N1, the ECDC H1N1 Modelling Working Group, and the UK government''s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) for pandemic H1N1.
I am a member of the steering group of the Infectious Disease Research Network (IDRN), a Fellow of the Winston Churchill Memorial Trust, and a NESTA (National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts) Crucible awardee 2006.
In addition to lecturing to undergraduate and postgraduate students at Imperial, including on the MSc in Epidemiology and Masters in Public Health, I give MPhil lectures at Cambridge University, and lecture on the Vaccinology course at Institut Pasteur. I recently helped teach a modelling course for the Public Health Foundation of India, based on Imperial College's professional short course, Introduction to Mathematical Models of the Epidemiology & Control of Infectious Diseases.
Collaborative studies of STIs, HIV, TB and influenza involve Brighton & Sussex Medical School, LSHTM, Queen Mary, University of London, University College London, the Universities of Bern, Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool, and Warwick, and others.
The BBC (in its Panorama and news webpages) and the Times newspaper have reported modelling work from the Patsi study of the epidemiological impact of difficulties that previously existed in obtaining STI healthcare in the UK. We showed how failing to provide adequate capacity to treat curable infectious disease (in this case, gonorrhoea) creates a vicious circle by allowing further spreading of infection and so creating more demand for treatment. In contrast, providing adequate capacity creates a virtuous circle where most potential spreading is prevented, keeping infection rates and demand for treatment low. Investing in increased capacity, to break the vicious circle, greatly reduces numbers of future infections and so offers cost savings as well as improving health. This work has also been presented at the House of Commons (UK Parliament). Following this work, increased resources were made available for sexual health, and access to care improved. There is a summary for public-health officials and policy-makers available.
Recent workshops and seminars include:
*Brainstorm about a National Infectious Disease Forecasting Center, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2015
*The INfluENCE Event – 31st July 2015
*Performance of England’s National Pandemic Flu Service in rapid mass treatment and surveillance, Harvard School of Public Health, 2015
*Tackling TB in the UK in the Age of Austerity: ensuring we use novel tools and approaches cost-effectively, Yale University, 2015
*Symposium on Mathematical approaches to better understand and tackle tuberculosis, IUATLD conference, Barcelona, 2014.
*WHO: Practical Short Course on Influenza and Other Infectious Disease Modelling, Dubai, 2014.
*IDRN Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling, 2014.
*AHVLA Modelling Workshop, 2014.
*PHE course, Health economics: what public health professionals need to know, 2014.
*Invited presentation, Tackling TB in the UK in the Age of Austerity, Harvard School of Public Health, Institut Pasteur, and Robert Koch Institute, 2014.
*UCL IPH Research forum, 2014.
*CDC modeling course, Atlanta, 2014.
*Indian Institute of Public Health: Infectious Disease Modelling workshop, Delhi, 2013.
*WHO: Practical Short Course on Influenza and Other Infectious Disease Modelling, London, 2013.
*CONSISE (CONsortium for the Standardization of Influenza SeroEpidemiology) meeting, Cape Town, 2013.
*Healthcare Efficiency Through Technology, London, 2013.
*UK Diagnostics Forum: Improving the evidence for diagnostic tests, Oxford, 2013.
*CSaP annual conference 2013: Future directions for scientific advice in Whitehall.
*CONSISE (CONsortium for the Standardization of Influenza SeroEpidemiology) meeting, Hong Kong, 2013.
*MIDAS Dynamics of Preparedness conference, Pittsburgh, 2012.
*Global Health Economics Excellence meeting, Stockholm, 2012.
*Epiwork/Epifor 2nd International Workshop, Facing the Challenge of Infectious Diseases, Aosta, 2012.
*Masters’ Class From Data to Decision: How to Integrate Modeling Methodologies to Inform Public Health Policy, Vancouver, 2012.
*British Academy Conference, Modelling for Policy, London, 2012.
*MIDAS Behavioral Workshop, Atlanta, 2012.
*UNITAID workshop on methodology for public health impact, 2012.
*HIV modelling consortium workshop, Montreux, 2011.
*CDC modeling course, Atlanta, 2011.
*International Forum on Pandemic Influenza 2010, Qingdao, China.
*Consultation on Metrics, Monitoring & Evaluation, and Research (MMER) for President Barack Obama’s new Global Health Initiative, 2009.
*DIMACS Workshop on Mathematical Models for Behavioral Epidemiology.
*ECDC Influenza A(H1N1)v modelling working group.
*WHO Informal Network for Mathematical Modelling of H1N1.
*BMGF Vaccine Modeling Initiative meeting, Pittsburgh.
*NCCID HIV/STBBI Knowledge Synthesis and Exchange Forum, Toronto.
*Meeting the Demand for Male Circumcision: An assessment of what is needed, Kampala.
*Male Circumcision for HIV risk reduction: Decision Makers'' Programme Planning Tool and Consensus Statement meeting, London.
*Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors meeting, Seattle.
*Department of Health (UK): Health Economics of Interventions in Sexual Health.
*National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (UK): Economic Evaluation in Public Health.
*LEAD International: HIV/STD & Eco-Health Systems, Dakar, Senegal.
I studied biochemistry at Cambridge, then went to Oxford for my MSc, before studying for my PhD in Stirling, with Prof Peter Hudson (now at Penn State) and Dr Rachel Norman. I joined the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College in 2002. Prior to becoming a lecturer I was a postdoc, funded by the Wellcome Trust and then UNAIDS. I took up my position at the Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) in April 2009.
Imperial College's professional short course, Introduction to Mathematical Models of the Epidemiology & Control of Infectious Diseases, is aimed at public health professionals, policy-makers and researchers who want to learn about the basic principles and practical applications of mathematical modelling and modern quantitative methods, and has been running for two decades.
et al., 2005, Vicious and virtuous circles in the dynamics of infectious disease and the provision of health care: Gonorrhea in Britain as an example, Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol:192, ISSN:1537-6613, Pages:824-836
et al., 2009, Clandestine induced abortion: prevalence, incidence and risk factors among women in a Latin American country, Canadian Medical Association Journal, Vol:180, ISSN:0820-3946, Pages:298-304
et al., 2009, Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in High HIV Prevalence Settings: What Can Mathematical Modelling Contribute to Informed Decision Making?, PLOS Medicine, Vol:6, ISSN:1549-1277, Pages:e1000109-e1000109
et al., 2010, Studies Needed to Address Public Health Challenges of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Insights from Modeling, PLOS Medicine, Vol:7, ISSN:1549-1277, Pages:e1000275-e1000275
et al., 2010, Mathematical Modelling of the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis, Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology, Vol:673, ISSN:0065-2598, Pages:127-140
et al., 2011, Tuberculosis screening of migrants to low-burden nations: insights from evaluation of UK practice, European Respiratory Journal, Vol:37, ISSN:0903-1936, Pages:1175-1182
et al., 2011, Bayesian modeling to unmask and predict influenza A/H1N1pdm dynamics in London, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol:108, ISSN:0027-8424, Pages:18238-18243
et al., 2011, UK immigrant screening is inversely related to regional tuberculosis burden, Thorax, Vol:66, ISSN:0040-6376, Pages:1010-1010
et al., 2011, Screening of immigrants in the UK for imported latent tuberculosis: a multicentre cohort study and cost-effectiveness analysis, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol:11, ISSN:1473-3099, Pages:435-444
et al., 2011, Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol:8, ISSN:1742-5689, Pages:661-670
et al., 2011, Quantifying sexual exposure to HIV within an HIV-serodiscordant relationship: development of an algorithm, AIDS, Vol:25, ISSN:0269-9370, Pages:1065-1082
et al., 2011, Dedicated outreach service for hard to reach patients with tuberculosis in London: observational study and economic evaluation, British Medical Journal, Vol:343, ISSN:0959-535X, Pages:d5376-d5376
et al., 2011, Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol:278, ISSN:0962-8452, Pages:2753-2760