Imperial College London

Dr Robbie M. Parks

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Honorary Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

r.parks15 Website

 
 
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Location

 

709Blackett LaboratorySouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

29 results found

Ziska L, Parks R, 2024, Recent and Projected Changes in Global Climate May Increase Nicotine Absorption and the Risk of Green Tobacco Sickness., Res Sq

BACKGROUND: Dermal transfer of nicotine during tobacco harvest can increase green tobacco sickness (GTS), characterized by nausea, vomiting, headache and dizziness. Rainfall and temperature are established etiological factors known to increase prevalence of GTS. We aimed to analyze recent and projected trends in these factors for major tobacco growing regions to assess potential exacerbation in GTS occurrence. METHODS: We analyzed climate parameters, including trends in temperature and precipitation metrics during the tobacco harvest period for Southern Brazil; Yunnan Province, China; Andhra State, India; and North Carolina, USA (~50-year period). We applied Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based scenarios for CMIP6, (SSPs of 1-2.6, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100). Established protocol for nicotine dermal patches and temperature was used as a proxy to estimate potential nicotine absorption with rising temperature. RESULTS: For three locations, cumulative maximum temperatures during harvest season and temperature extremes increased significantly since the 1970s. For all locations, cumulative rainfall during the harvest season also rose. Projected maximum temperatures for the harvest season increased at SSP 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 projections through 2100 for all locations. Estimates of nicotine skin absorption with rising temperature indicate significant increases for both recent changes (since the 1970s) in three of the four locations, and for all locations for the SSP projections of 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 from 2020 to 2100. CONCLUSIONS: This study across multiple continents, highlights a potential link between recent and projected anthropogenic change and potential increases in GTS risk. Under SSP 5-8.5, nicotine absorption could increase by ~50% by the end of the century, which may have widespread impacts on the incidence of GTS, especially among younger tobacco workers.

Journal article

Tuholske C, Lynch VD, Spriggs R, Ahn Y, Raymond C, Nigra AE, Parks RMet al., 2024, Hazardous heat exposure among incarcerated people in the United States, Nature Sustainability

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of potentially hazardous heat conditions across the United States, putting the incarcerated population of 2 million at risk for heat-related health conditions. We evaluate the exposure to potentially hazardous heat for 4,078 continental US carceral facilities during 1982–2020. Results show that the number of hot days per year increased during 1982–2020 for 1,739 carceral facilities, primarily located in the southern United States. State-run carceral facilities in Texas and Florida accounted for 52% of total exposure, despite holding 12% of all incarcerated people. This highlights the urgency for enhanced infrastructure, health system interventions and treatment of incarcerated people, especially under climate change.

Journal article

Parks RM, Rowland ST, Do V, Boehme AK, Dominici F, Hart CL, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2023, The association between temperature and alcohol- and substance-related disorder hospital visits in New York State, COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE, Vol: 3, ISSN: 2730-664X

Journal article

Nunez Y, Balalian A, Parks RM, He MZ, Hansen J, Raaschou-Nielsen O, Ketzel M, Khan J, Brandt J, Vermeulen R, Peters S, Weisskopf MG, Re DB, Goldsmith J, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2023, Exploring Relevant Time Windows in the Association Between PM<sub>2.5</sub> Exposure and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Case-Control Study in Denmark, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 192, Pages: 1499-1508, ISSN: 0002-9262

Journal article

Parks RM, Kontis V, Anderson GB, Baldwin JW, Danaei G, Toumi R, Dominici F, Ezzati M, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2023, Short-term excess mortality following tropical cyclones in the United States, SCIENCE ADVANCES, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2375-2548

Journal article

Flaxman S, Whittaker C, Semenova E, Rashid T, Parks RM, Blenkinsop A, Unwin HJT, Mishra S, Bhatt S, Gurdasani D, Ratmann Oet al., 2023, Assessment of COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death among children and young people aged 0 to 19 years in the US., Jama Network Open, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2574-3805

IMPORTANCE: COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death for more than 940 000 individuals in the US, including at least 1289 children and young people (CYP) aged 0 to 19 years, with at least 821 CYP deaths occurring in the 1-year period from August 1, 2021, to July 31, 2022. Because deaths among US CYP are rare, the mortality burden of COVID-19 in CYP is best understood in the context of all other causes of CYP death. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether COVID-19 is a leading (top 10) cause of death in CYP in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This national population-level cross-sectional epidemiological analysis for the years 2019 to 2022 used data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) database on underlying cause of death in the US to identify the ranking of COVID-19 relative to other causes of death among individuals aged 0 to 19 years. COVID-19 deaths were considered in 12-month periods between April 1, 2020, and August 31, 2022, compared with deaths from leading non-COVID-19 causes in 2019, 2020, and 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause of death rankings by total number of deaths, crude rates per 100 000 population, and percentage of all causes of death, using the National Center for Health Statistics 113 Selected Causes of Death, for ages 0 to 19 and by age groupings (<1 year, 1-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-19 years). RESULTS: There were 821 COVID-19 deaths among individuals aged 0 to 19 years during the study period, resulting in a crude death rate of 1.0 per 100 000 population overall; 4.3 per 100 000 for those younger than 1 year; 0.6 per 100 000 for those aged 1 to 4 years; 0.4 per 100 000 for those aged 5 to 9 years; 0.5 per 100 000 for those aged 10 to 14 years; and 1.8 per 100 000 for those aged 15 to 19 years. COVID-19 mortality in the time period of August 1, 2021, to July 31, 2022, was among the 10 leading causes of death in CYP aged 0 to 19 years in the US

Journal article

Kepp KP, Bjork J, Kontis V, Parks RM, Baek KT, Emilsson L, Lallukka Tet al., 2022, Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 51, Pages: 1722-1732, ISSN: 0300-5771

Journal article

Parks RM, Nunez Y, Balalian AA, Gibson EA, Hansen J, Raaschou-Nielsen O, Ketzel M, Khan J, Brandt J, Vermeulen R, Peters S, Goldsmith J, Re DB, Weisskopf MG, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2022, Long-term Traffic-related Air Pollutant Exposure and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Diagnosis in Denmark <i>A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis</i>, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 33, Pages: 757-766, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Elser H, Rowland ST, Tartof SY, Parks RM, Bruxvoort K, Morello-Frosch R, Robinson SC, Pressman AR, Wei RX, Casey JAet al., 2022, Ambient temperature and risk of urinary tract infection in California: A time-stratified case-crossover study using electronic health records, ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL, Vol: 165, ISSN: 0160-4120

Journal article

Kepp KP, Björk J, Bæk KT, Lallukka Tet al., 2022, Estimates of excess mortality for the five Nordic countries during the Covid-19 pandemic 2020-2021

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Excess deaths during the covid-19 pandemic are of major scientific and political interest. Here we review excess all-cause death estimates from different methods for the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), which have been much studied during the covid-19 pandemic. In the comparison of the methods, we use simple sensitivity estimates and linear interpolations of the death data to discuss uncertainties and implications for reporting ratios and infection fatality rates. We show using back-calculation of expected deaths from Nordic all-cause deaths that a recent study in <jats:italic>Lancet</jats:italic>, which is a clear outlier in the overviewed estimates, most likely substantially overestimates excess deaths of Finland and Denmark, and probably Sweden. The other estimates are more consistent and suggest a range of total Nordic excess deaths of approximately half of that in the Lancet study, a more uniform ability to identify covid-19-related deaths, and more similar infection fatality rates for the Nordic countries.</jats:p>

Journal article

Parks RM, Benavides J, Anderson GB, Nethery RC, Navas-Acien A, Dominici F, Ezzati M, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2022, Association of Tropical Cyclones With County-Level Mortality in the US, JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol: 327, Pages: 946-955, ISSN: 0098-7484

Journal article

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Zhou B, Guillot M, Mathers CD, Khang Y-H, McKee M, Ezzati Met al., 2022, Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination [version 2; peer review: 2 approved], Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2398-502X

Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. Results: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. Conclusions: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions that delay and reduce infections, effective trea

Journal article

Kontis V, Bennett J, Parks R, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Zhou B, Guillot M, Mathers C, Khang Y-H, McKee M, Ezzati Met al., 2022, Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination

<h4>Background: </h4> Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. <h4>Methods: </h4>: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality. <h4>Results: </h4>: Over this year, there were 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) excess deaths in these countries, equivalent to a 15% (14-17) increase, and 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change. The USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced >20% higher mortality. Within the USA, Hawaii experienced no detectable change in mortality and Maine a 5% increase, contrasting with New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Texas, California, Louisiana and New York which experienced >25% higher mortality. Mid-February to the end of May 2020 accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus, whereas mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021 accounted for >90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In USA, excess deaths in the northeast were driven mainly by the first wave, in southern and southwestern states by the summer wave, and in the northern plains by the post-September period. <h4>Conclusions: </h4>: Prior to widespread vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the overall death toll of the pandemic requires pol

Journal article

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Zhou B, Guillot M, Mathers CD, Khang Y-H, McKee M, Ezzati Met al., 2021, Lessons learned and lessons missed: Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination

<jats:p>Industrialised countries have varied in their early response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and how they have adapted to new situations and knowledge since the pandemic began. These variations in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from Covid-19 as well as from other diseases. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in any of these countries. Taken over the entire year, an estimated 1,401,900 (95% credible interval 1,259,700-1,572,500) more people died in these 40 countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. This is equivalent to 140 (126-157) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (13-17) increase in deaths over this period in all of these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower over this period than what would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the populations of the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium and Netherlands. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Until the great majority of national and global populations have vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the death toll of the pandemic from Covid-19 and other diseases will remain depende

Journal article

Kruczkiewicz A, Klopp J, Fisher J, Mason S, McClain S, Sheekh NM, Moss R, Parks RM, Braneon Cet al., 2021, Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 118, ISSN: 0027-8424

Journal article

Elser H, Parks R, Moghavem N, Kiang M, Bozinov N, Henderson V, Rehkopf D, Casey Jet al., 2021, Anomalously warm weather and acute care visits in patients with multiple sclerosis: A retrospective study of privately insured individuals in the US, NEUROLOGY, Vol: 96, ISSN: 0028-3878

Journal article

Parks RM, Anderson GB, Nethery RC, Navas-Acien A, Dominici F, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2021, Tropical cyclone exposure is associated with increased hospitalization rates in older adults, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723

Hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have devastating effects on society. Previous case studies have quantified their impact on some health outcomes for particular tropical cyclones, but a comprehensive assessment over longer periods is currently missing. Here, we used data on 70 million Medicare hospitalizations and tropical cyclone exposures over 16 years (1999–2014). We formulated a conditional quasi-Poisson model to examine how tropical cyclone exposure (days greater than Beaufort scale gale-force wind speed; ≥34 knots) affect hospitalizations for 13 mutually-exclusive, clinically-meaningful causes. We found that tropical cyclone exposure was associated with average increases in hospitalizations from several causes over the week following exposure, including respiratory diseases (14.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.9–17.9%); infectious and parasitic diseases (4.3%; 95%CI: 1.2–8.1%); and injuries (8.7%; 95%CI: 6.0–11.8%). Average decadal tropical cyclone exposure in all impacted counties would be associated with an estimated 16,772 (95%CI: 8,265–25,278) additional hospitalizations. Our findings demonstrate the need for targeted preparedness strategies for hospital personnel before, during, and after tropical cyclones.

Journal article

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, Parks RM, Pearson-Stuttard J, Guillot M, Asaria P, Zhou B, Battaglini M, Corsetti G, McKee M, Di Cesare M, Mathers CD, Ezzati Met al., 2021, Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries (vol 26, pg 1919, 2020), NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 27, Pages: 562-562, ISSN: 1078-8956

Journal article

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Parks RM, Rashid T, Pearson-Stuttard J, Asaria P, Zhou B, Guillot M, Mathers CD, Khang YH, McKee M, Ezzati M, Gupta R, Gómez-Rubio Vet al., 2021, Lessons learned and lessons missed: Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries prior to mass vaccination [version 1; peer review: 2 approved with reservations], Wellcome Open Research, Vol: 6

Background: Industrialised countries had varied responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how they adapted to new situations and knowledge since it began. These differences in preparedness and policy may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 as well as other diseases. Methods: We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the impacts of the pandemic on weekly all-cause mortality for 40 industrialised countries from mid- February 2020 through mid-February 2021, before a large segment of the population was vaccinated in these countries. Results: Over the entire year, an estimated 1,410,300 (95% credible interval 1,267,600-1,579,200) more people died in these countries than would have been expected had the pandemic not happened. This is equivalent to 141 (127-158) additional deaths per 100,000 people and a 15% (14-17) increase in deaths in all these countries combined. In Iceland, Australia and New Zealand, mortality was lower than would be expected if the pandemic had not occurred, while South Korea and Norway experienced no detectable change in mortality. In contrast, the USA, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland experienced at least 20% higher mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity across countries in the dynamics of excess mortality. The first wave of the pandemic, from mid-February to the end of May 2020, accounted for over half of excess deaths in Scotland, Spain, England and Wales, Canada, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Cyprus. At the other extreme, the period between mid-September 2020 and mid-February 2021 accounted for over 90% of excess deaths in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Conclusions: Until the great majority of national and global populations have vaccine-acquired immunity, minimising the death toll of the pandemic from COVID-19 and other diseases will require actions to delay and contain infections and continu

Journal article

deSouza P, Braun D, Parks RM, Schwartz J, Dominici F, Kioumourtzoglou M-Aet al., 2021, Nationwide Study of Short-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Cardiovascular Hospitalizations Among Medicaid Enrollees, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 32, Pages: 6-13, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Parks RM, Bennett JE, Tamura-Wicks H, Kontis V, Toumi R, Danaei G, Ezzati Met al., 2020, Reply to: Concerns over calculating injury-related deaths associated with temperature, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 26, ISSN: 1078-8956

Journal article

Kontis V, Bennett JE, Rashid T, Parks RM, Pearson-Stuttard J, Guillot M, Asaria P, Zhou B, Battaglini M, Corsetti G, McKee M, Di Cesare M, Mathers CD, Ezzati Met al., 2020, Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries, Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 1919-1928, ISSN: 1078-8956

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30–44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31–45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.

Journal article

Parks RM, Thalheimer L, 2020, The hidden burden of pandemics, climate change and migration on mental health, UN International Organization for Migration (IOM) thematic series on health, Publisher: IOM

Report

Parks RM, Bennett JE, Tamura-Wicks H, Kontis V, Toumi R, Danaei G, Ezzati Met al., 2020, Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths, Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 65-70, ISSN: 1078-8956

Temperatures which deviate from long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes.1 There is limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. Here, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980-2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5°C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement,2 would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430-37 1,776) additional injury deaths. 84% of these additional deaths would occur in males, mostly in adolescent to middle ages. These deaths would comprise of increases in deaths 39 from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously high temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.

Journal article

Bennett J, Tamura-Wicks H, Parks R, Burnett RT, Pope III CA, Bechle MJ, Marshall JD, Goodarz D, Ezzati Met al., 2019, Particulate matter air pollution and national and county life expectancy loss in the USA: a spatiotemporal analysis, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1549-1277

Background Exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is hazardous to health. Our aim was to directly estimate the health and longevity impacts of current PM2.5 concentrations, and the benefits of reductions from 1999 to 2015, nationally and at county level, for the entire contemporary population of the contiguous United States. Methods and findings We used vital registration and population data with information on sex, age, cause of death and county of residence. We used four Bayesian spatio-temporal models, with different adjustments for other determinants of mortality, to directly estimate mortality and life expectancy loss due to current PM2.5 pollution, and the benefits of reductions since 1999, nationally and by county. The covariates included in the adjusted models were per capita income; percentage of population whose family income is below the poverty threshold, who are of Black or African American race, who have graduated from high-school, who live in urban areas, and who are unemployed; cumulative smoking; and mean temperature and relative humidity. In the main model, which adjusted for these covariates and for unobserved county characteristics through the use of county random intercepts, PM2.5 pollution in excess of the lowest observed concentration (2.8 µg/m3) was responsible for an estimated 15,612 deaths (95% credible interval 13,248-17,945) in females and in 14,757 deaths (12,617-16,919) for males. These deaths would lower national life expectancy by an estimated 0.15 years (0.13-0.17) for women and 0.13 years (0.11-0.15) for men. The life expectancy loss due to PM2.5 was largest around Los Angeles and in some southern states, such as Arkansas, Oklahoma or Alabama. At any PM2.5 concentration, life expectancy loss was, on average, larger in counties with lower income than in wealthier counties. Reductions in PM2.5 since 1999 have lowered mortality in all but 14 counties where PM2.5 increased slightly. The main limitation of our study

Journal article

Parks R, Mclaren M, Toumi R, Rivett Uet al., 2019, Experiences and lessons in managing water from Cape Town

Water shortages will become more common in cities around the world during the 21st century due to climate change.• Cape Town, South Africa experienced an especially severe drought in 2017-2018 after several years of low rainfall. This drought prompted an estimate of Day Zero, when freshwater reservoir levels supplying the city would fall below 13.5% of capacity and the majority of the municipal water network would be shut down.• In response to this crisis, the City of Cape Town municipal government significantly extended an existing set of rules and regulations, and introduced additional measures, to limit water demand. These actions included restricting available water; new tariffs to penalise excess water usage; water management devices installed in domestic properties; and novel communication strategies.• The water crisis has had widespread economic and social impacts, with damage to the tourist and agriculture industries; and tensions between sections of society and government. • Any city under water stress, like Cape Town, needs a long-term strategy for water supply and demand. Such a strategy should include diversity of water sources, equity of service provisions, thoughtful but forceful messaging, early warning systems and co-operation between local, regional and national levels of government.

Report

Parks RM, Bennett J, Foreman K, Toumi R, Ezzati Met al., 2018, National and regional seasonal dynamics of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the USA from 1980 to 2016, eLife, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2050-084X

In temperate climates, winter deaths exceed summer ones. However, there is limited information on the timing and the relative magnitudes of maximum and minimum mortality, by local climate, age group, sex and medical cause of death. We used geo-coded mortality data and wavelets to analyse the seasonality of mortality by age group and sex from 1980 to 2016 in the USA and its subnational climatic regions. Death rates in men and women ≥ 45 years peaked in December to February and were lowest in June to August, driven by cardiorespiratory diseases and injuries. In these ages, percent difference in death rates between peak and minimum months did not vary across climate regions, nor changed from 1980 to 2016. Under five years, seasonality of all-cause mortality largely disappeared after the 1990s. In adolescents and young adults, especially in males, death rates peaked in June/July and were lowest in December/January, driven by injury deaths.

Journal article

Parks RM, 2016, Weather, climate and health, Weather, Vol: 71, Pages: 194-195, ISSN: 0043-1656

Journal article

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