Publications
92 results found
Armstrong RC, Wolfram C, de Jong KP, et al., 2016, The frontiers of energy, NATURE ENERGY, Vol: 1, ISSN: 2058-7546
Watson J, Gross R, Ketsopoulou I, et al., 2015, The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 87, Pages: 685-695, ISSN: 0301-4215
Watson J, Gross R, Ketsopoulou I, 2015, Energy policy special issue: UK Energy Research Centre uncertainties project, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 87, Pages: 604-606, ISSN: 0301-4215
Blyth W, McCarthy R, Gross R, 2015, Financing the UK power sector: Is the money available?, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 87, Pages: 607-622, ISSN: 0301-4215
Hanna R, Gross R, Speirs J, et al., 2015, Innovation timelines from invention to maturity: A rapid review of the evidence on the time taken for new technologies to reach widespread commercialisation
MacLean K, Gross R, Hannon M, et al., 2015, Energy system crossroads - time for decisions:UK 2030 low carbon scenarios and pathways - key decision points for a decarbonised energy system, ICEPT/WP/2015/019
Parrish B, Heptonstall PJ, Gross R, 2015, HubNet Position Paper No. 11 - How much can we really expect from smart consumers?
Mawhood RK, Gross R, 2014, Institutional barriers to a ‘perfect’ policy: A case study of the Senegalese Rural Electrification Plan, Energy Policy, Vol: 73, Pages: 480-490
This paper investigates the political and institutional factors that have influenced the success of the Senegalese Rural Electrification Action Plan (Plan d׳Action Sénégalais d׳Électrification Rurale, PASER). PASER is of interest because its innovative design attracted extensive offers of finance from donors and independent power providers, however it has had limited effect on electrification levels. This paper examines PASER׳s progress and problems in detail, with the aim of informing rural electrification policy internationally.An extensive literature review was combined with 26 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, to produce a snapshot of the Plan׳s status after its first decade of operation. PASER׳s experiences are compared with other reform-based rural electrification initiatives across Sub-Saharan Africa.PASER has faced significant institutional and political barriers, with delays arising from organisational opposition, inconsistent ministerial support, protracted consultations and the inherent challenges of implementing an innovative policy framework in a country with limited institutional capacity. The development of human and institutional capacity has been compromised by inconsistent political commitment. Such experiences mirror those of electrification initiatives across Sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst PASER׳s successes in garnering external support and fundraising are noteworthy and won praise from early reviews, in terms of delivery the Plan has failed to resolve common institutional barriers.
Speirs J, Gross R, Candelise C, et al., 2014, Materials Availability for Low Carbon Technologies, Publisher: UKERC
Speirs J, Contestabile M, Houari Y, et al., 2014, The future of lithium availability for electric vehicle batteries, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 35, Pages: 183-193, ISSN: 1364-0321
Electric vehicles using lithium batteries could significantly reduce the emissions associated with road vehicle transport. However, the future availability of lithium is uncertain, and the feasibility of manufacturing lithium batteries at sufficient scale has been questioned. The levels of lithium demand growth implied by electric vehicle deployment scenarios is significant, particularly where scenarios are consistent with global GHG reduction targets. This paper examines the question of future lithium availability for the manufacturing of lithium batteries for electric vehicles.In this paper we first examine some of the existing literature in this area, highlighting the levels of future lithium demand previously considered and pointing to the variables that give rise to the range of outcomes in these assessments. We then investigate the ways in which lithium availability is calculated in the literature based on both lithium demand from electric vehicles and lithium supply from both brines and ore.This paper particularly focuses on the key variables needed to make an assessment of future lithium availability. On the demand side, these variables include future market size of electric vehicles, their average battery capacity and the material intensity of the batteries. The key supply variables include global reserve and resource estimates, forecast production and recyclability.We found that the literature informing assumptions regarding the key variables is characterised by significant uncertainty. This uncertainty gives rise to a wide range of estimates for the future demand for lithium based on scenarios consistent with as 50% reduction in global emissions by 2050 at between 184,000 and 989,000 t of lithium per year in 2050. However, lithium production is forecast to grow to between 75,000 and 110,000 t per year by 2020. Under this rate of production growth, it is plausible that lithium supply will meet increasing lithium demand over the coming decades to 2050.
Mawhood R, Gross R, 2014, Institutional barriers to a ‘perfect’ policy: a case study of the Senegalese Rural Electrification Action Plan, Energy Policy, Vol: 73, Pages: 480-490, ISSN: 1873-6777
This paper investigates the political and institutional factors that have influenced the success of the Senegalese Rural Electrification Action Plan (Plan d’Action Sénégalais d’Électrification Rurale, PASER). PASER is of interest because its innovative design attracted extensive offers of finance from donors and independent power providers, however it has had limited effect on electrification levels. This paper examines PASER’s progress and problems in detail, with the aim of informing rural electrification policy internationally. An extensive literature review was combined with 26 semi-structured stakeholder interviews, to produce a snapshot of the Plan’s status after its first decade of operation. PASER’s experiences are compared with other reform-based rural electrification initiatives across Sub-Saharan Africa. PASER has faced significant institutional and political barriers, with delays arising from organisational opposition, inconsistent ministerial support, protracted consultations and the inherent challenges of implementing an innovative policy framework in a country with limited institutional capacity. The development of human and institutional capacity has been compromised by inconsistent political commitment. PASER’s experiences mirror electrification initiatives across Sub-Saharan Africa, demonstrating that the Plan has not resolved common institutional barriers. Whilst PASER’s successes in garnering external support and fundraising are noteworthy, it is not the regional exemplar suggested by early reviews.
Slade R, Bauen A, Gross R, 2014, Global bioenergy resources, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 4, Pages: 99-105, ISSN: 1758-678X
Using biomass to provide energy services is a strategically important option for increasing the global uptake of renewable energy. Yet the practicalities of accelerating deployment are mired in controversy over the potential resource conflicts that might occur, particularly over land, water and biodiversity conservation. This calls into question whether policies to promote bioenergy are justified. Here we examine the assumptions on which global bioenergy resource estimates are predicated. We find that there is a disjunct between the evidence that global bioenergy studies can provide and policymakers' desire for estimates that can straightforwardly guide policy targets. We highlight the need for bottom-up assessments informed by empirical studies, experimentation and cross-disciplinary learning to better inform the policy debate.
Boot-Handford ME, Abanades JC, Anthony EJ, et al., 2014, Carbon capture and storage update, Energy and Environmental Science, Vol: 7, Pages: 130-189, ISSN: 1754-5692
In recent years, Carbon Capture and Storage (Sequestration) (CCS) has been proposed as a potential method to allow the continued use of fossil-fuelled power stations whilst preventing emissions of CO2 from reaching the atmosphere. Gas, coal (and biomass)-fired power stations can respond to changes in demand more readily than many other sources of electricity production, hence the importance of retaining them as an option in the energy mix. Here, we review the leading CO2 capture technologies, available in the short and long term, and their technological maturity, before discussing CO2 transport and storage. Current pilot plants and demonstrations are highlighted, as is the importance of optimising the CCS system as a whole. Other topics briefly discussed include the viability of both the capture of CO2 from the air and CO2 reutilisation as climate change mitigation strategies. Finally, we discuss the economic and legal aspects of CCS.
Houari Y, Speirs J, Candelise C, et al., 2013, A system dynamics model of tellurium availability for CdTe PV, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, Pages: n/a-n/a, ISSN: 1099-159X
The routine availability of key component materials has been highlighted as a potential constraint to both extensive deployment and reduction in production costs of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) technologies. This paper examines the effect of material availability on the maximum potential growth of thin-film PV by 2050 using the case of tellurium (Te) in cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV, currently the dominating thin-film technology with the lowest manufacturing cost. The use of system dynamics (SD) modelling allows for a dynamic treatment of key Te supply features and prospects for reductions in PV demand via material efficiency improvements, as well as greater transparency and a better understanding of future recycling potential. The model's projections for maximum Te-constrained CdTe PV growth by 2050 are shown to be higher than a number of previous studies using static assumptions—suggesting that a dynamic treatment of the resource constraints for CdTe inherently improves the outlook for future deployment of this technology. In addition, the sensitivity analysis highlights certain complex correlations between the maximum potential CdTe growth by 2050 and the rated lifetime of PV modules as well as the reported size of global Te resources. The highest observed sensitivities are to the recovery rate of Te from copper anode slimes, the active layer thickness, the module efficiency and the utilisation rate of Te during manufacturing, all of which are highlighted as topics for further research. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Gross R, Heptonstall P, Greenacre P, et al., 2013, Presenting the future: An assessment of future cost estimation methodologies in the electricity sector, London, Publisher: UKERC
Harris G, Heptonstall P, Gross R, et al., 2013, Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK, Energy Policy, Vol: 62, Pages: 431-442
Candelise C, Winskel M, Gross R, 2013, The dynamics of solar PV costs and prices as a challenge for technology forecasting, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 26, Pages: 96-107
Gross R, Heptonstall P, Speirs J, et al., 2013, Review of the Fourth Carbon Budget - Call for Evidence: Response from the Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, Imperial College London (ICEPT), London, Publisher: Committee on Climate Change
Black M, Gross R, 2013, Study into the Socio-economic Effects of National grid Major Infrastructure projects, Report commissioned by National Grid
Chignell S, Gross RJK, 2013, Not locked-in? The overlooked impact of new gas-fired generation investment on long-term decarbonisation in the UK, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 52, Pages: 699-705, ISSN: 0301-4215
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- Citations: 7
Hughes N, Strachan N, Gross R, 2013, The structure of uncertainty in future low carbon pathways, Energy Policy, Vol: 52, Pages: 45-54, ISSN: 0301-4215
Low carbon scenario and transition pathway analysis involves the consideration of uncertainties around future technological and social changes. This paper argues that uncertainty can be better understood, and the strategic and policy effectiveness of scenarios or pathways thereby improved, through a systematic categorisation of the different kinds of certain and uncertain elements of which the future is comprised. To achieve this, this paper makes two novel methodological contributions. First it proposes a system conceptualisation which is based on a detailed description of the dynamics of the actors and institutions relevant to the system under study, iteratively linked to a detailed representation of the technological system. Second, it argues that as a result of developing this actor-based low carbon scenarios approach it is possible to characterise future elements of the system as either pre-determined, actor contingent or non-actor contingent. An outline scenario approach is presented, based on these two contributions. It emerges that the different categories of future element are associated with different types of uncertainty and each prompt different strategic policy responses. This categorisation of future elements therefore clarifies the relationship of scenario content to specific types of policy response, and thus improves the policy tractability of resulting scenarios.
Chalmers H, Gibbins J, Gross R, et al., 2013, Analysing Uncertainties for CCS: From Historical Analogues to Future Deployment Pathways in the UK, Energy Procedia, Vol: 37, Pages: 7668-7679
Candelise C, Gross R, Heptonstall P, et al., 2013, Presenting the future: An assessment of future cost estimation methodologies in the electricity sector, London, Publisher: UKERC
Candelise C, Winskel M, Gross R, 2012, Implications for CdTe and CIGS technologies production costs of indium and tellurium scarcity, Progress in Photovoltaics: research and applications, Vol: 20, Pages: 816-831
Saunders RW, Gross RJK, Wade J, 2012, Can premium tariffs for micro-generation and small scale renewable heat help the fuel poor, and if so, how? Case studies of innovative finance for community energy schemes in the UK, ENERGY POLICY, Vol: 42, Pages: 78-88, ISSN: 0301-4215
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- Citations: 44
Heptonstall P, Gross R, Greenacre P, et al., 2012, The cost of offshore wind: Understanding the past and projecting the future, Energy Policy, Vol: 41, Pages: 815-821
Gross R, Heptonstall P, Leach M, et al., 2012, The uk energy research centre review of the costs and impacts of intermittency, Renewable Electricity and the Grid: The Challenge of Variability, Pages: 73-94, ISBN: 9781849772334
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- Citations: 7
Jones F, Candelise C, Gross R, 2011, ICEPT submission to the DECC Consultation over revision of the Feed in Tariff for small scale photovoltaics
Gross R, Candelise C, 2011, ICEPT letter to DECC Ministers on the pace and scale of change to the PV Feed in Tariff
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