Imperial College London
Alternate

Professor Sir Roy Anderson FRS, FMedSci

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor in Infectious Disease Epidemiology
 
 
 
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Contact

 

roy.anderson Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Mrs Clare Mylchreest +44 (0)7766 331 301

 
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Location

 

LG35Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Collyer:2020:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644,
author = {Collyer, BS and Irvine, MA and Hollingsworth, TD and Bradley, M and Anderson, RM},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644},
journal = {PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
pages = {1--21},
title = {Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644},
volume = {14},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO’s NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.
AU  - Collyer,BS
AU  - Irvine,MA
AU  - Hollingsworth,TD
AU  - Bradley,M
AU  - Anderson,RM
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644
EP  - 21
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1935-2727
SP  - 1
TI  - Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)
T2  - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644
UR  - http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000581735500007&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008644
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/88464
VL  - 14
ER  -
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