Imperial College London

DrSaraAhmadi Abhari

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Lecturer in the Epidemiology Ageing
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 3313 0611s.ahmadi-abhari Website

 
 
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Location

 

10L09Lab BlockCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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38 results found

Bandosz P, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Guzman-Castillo M, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Whittaker H, Shipley MJ, Capewell S, Brunner EJ, O'Flaherty Met al., 2020, Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study., Diabetologia, Vol: 63, Pages: 104-115

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We estimated the potential impact of trends in diabetes prevalence upon mortality and the future burden of dementia and disability in England and Wales. METHODS: We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was evaluated against three alternative projected trends in diabetes: increases of 49%, 20% and 7%. RESULTS: Our results suggest that changes in the trend in diabetes prevalence will lead to changes in mortality and incidence of dementia and disability, which will become visible after 10-15 years. If the relative prevalence of diabetes increases 49% by 2060, expected additional deaths would be approximately 255,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 236,000-272,200), with 85,900 (71,500-101,600) cumulative additional cases of dementia and 104,900 (85,900-125,400) additional cases of disability. With a smaller relative increase in diabetes prevalence (7% increase by 2060), we estimated 222,200 (205,700-237,300) fewer deaths, and 77,000 (64,300-90,800) and 93,300 (76,700-111,400) fewer additional cases of dementia and disability, respectively, than the baseline case of a 26% increase in diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Reducing the burden of diabetes could result in substantial reductions in the incidence of dementia and disability over the medium to long term.

Journal article

McRae-McKee K, Chinedu T, Udeh-Momoh CT, Price G, Sumali Bajaj S, de Jager CA, Scott D, Hadjichrysanthou C, McNaughton E, Bracoud L, Ahmadi-Abhari S, De Wolf F, Anderson R, Middleton Let al., 2019, Perspective: Clinical relevance of the dichotomous classification of Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers: Should there be a “grey zone”?, Alzheimers & Dementia, Vol: 15, Pages: 1348-1356, ISSN: 1552-5260

The 2018 National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) research framework recently redefined Alzheimer's disease (AD) as a biological construct, based on in vivo biomarkers reflecting key neuropathologic features. Combinations of normal/abnormal levels of three biomarker categories, based on single thresholds, form the AD signature profile that defines the biological disease state as a continuum, independent of clinical symptomatology. While single thresholds may be useful in defining the biological signature profile, we provide evidence that their use in studies with cognitive outcomes merits further consideration. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative with a focus on cortical amyloid binding, we discuss the limitations of applying the biological definition of disease status as a tool to define the increased likelihood of the onset of the Alzheimer's clinical syndrome and the effects that this may have on trial study design. We also suggest potential research objectives going forward and what the related data requirements would be.

Journal article

Collins B, Bandosz P, Guzman-Castillo M, Pearson-Stuttard J, Stoye G, McCauley J, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Shipley MJ, Capewell S, French E, Brunner EJ, O'Flaherty Met al., 2019, WILL SOCIAL CARE NEED MORE RESOURCES? A MODELLING STUDY OF HEALTH AND SOCIAL COSTS IN ENGLAND AND WALES FOR ALTERNATIVE FUTURE CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE SCENARIOS, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A9-A9, ISSN: 0143-005X

Conference paper

Bandosz P, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Guzman-Castillo M, Pearson-Stuttard J, Collins B, Whittaker H, Shipley MJ, Capewell S, Brunner EJ, O'Flaherty Met al., 2019, THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF DIABETES PREVENTION ON THE FUTURE UK BURDEN OF DEMENTIA AND DISABILITY, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A22-A22, ISSN: 0143-005X

Conference paper

Lindbohm J, Sipila PN, Mars NJ, Pentti J, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Brunner EJ, Shipley MJ, Singh-Manoux A, Tabak AG, Kivimaki Met al., 2019, 5-year versus risk-category-specific screening intervals for cardiovascular disease prevention: a cohort study, Lancet Public Health, Vol: 4, Pages: E189-E199, ISSN: 2468-2667

Background Clinical guidelines suggest preventive interventions such as statin therapy for individuals with a highestimated 10-year risk of major cardiovascular events. For those with a low or intermediate estimated risk, risk-factorscreenings are recommended at 5-year intervals; this interval is based on expert opinion rather than on direct researchevidence. Using longitudinal data on the progression of cardiovascular disease risk over time, we compared differentscreening intervals in terms of timely detection of high-risk individuals, cardiovascular events prevented, and healthcare costs.Methods We used data from participants in the British Whitehall II study (aged 40–64 years at baseline) who hadrepeated biomedical screenings at 5-year intervals and linked these data to electronic health records between baseline(Aug 7, 1991, to May 10, 1993) and June 30, 2015. We estimated participants’ 10-year risk of a major cardiovascularevent (myocardial infarction, cardiac death, and fatal or non-fatal stroke) using the revised AtheroscleroticCardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) calculator. We used multistate Markov modelling to estimate optimum screeningintervals on the basis of progression rates from low-risk and intermediate-risk categories to the high-risk category(ie, ≥7·5% 10-year risk of a major cardiovascular event). Our assessment criteria included person-years spent in ahigh-risk category before detection, the number of major cardiovascular events prevented and quality-adjusted lifeyears (QALYs) gained, and screening costs.Findings Of 6964 participants (mean age 50·0 years [SD 6·0] at baseline) with 152700 person-years of follow-up (meanfollow-up 22·0 years [SD 5·0]), 1686 participants progressed to the high-risk category and 617 had a majorcardiovascular event. With the 5-year screening intervals, participants spent 7866 (95% CI 7130–8658) person-yearsunrecognised in the high-risk group. For individuals in the low

Journal article

Valencia-Hernandez C, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Shipley MJ, McEniery C, Wilkinson I, Brunner EJet al., 2018, Hypertension control and 5-year arterial stiffness progression, Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: 709-709, ISSN: 0950-9240

Conference paper

Brunner EJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, 2018, Modelling the growing need for social care in older people, LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 3, Pages: E414-E415, ISSN: 2468-2667

Journal article

Brunner EJ, Shipley MJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Hernandez CV, Abell JG, Singh-Manoux A, Kawachi I, Kivimaki Met al., 2018, Midlife contributors to socioeconomic differences in frailty during later life: a prospective cohort study, LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 3, Pages: E313-E322, ISSN: 2468-2667

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Whittaker H, Shipley MJ, Kivimaki M, Singh-Manoux A, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M, Brunner EJet al., 2017, Impact of tobacco smoking prevalence on cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths in England and Wales, 2017-40: a modelling study, Public Health Science Conference, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, Pages: S16-S16, ISSN: 0140-6736

Conference paper

Guzman-Castillo M, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Bandosz P, Capewell S, Steptoe A, Singh-Manoux A, Kivamaki M, Shipley MJ, Brunner EJ, O'Flaherty Met al., 2017, FORECASTING TRENDS IN DISABILITY IN ENGLAND AND WALES TO 2030: A MODELLING STUDY, Publisher: BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, Pages: A88-A88, ISSN: 0143-005X

Conference paper

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Sabia S, Shipley MJ, Kivimaki M, Singh-Manoux A, Tabak A, McEniery C, Wilkinson IB, Brunner EJet al., 2017, Physical Activity, Sedentary Behavior, and Long-Term Changes in Aortic Stiffness: The Whitehall II Study, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2047-9980

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Shipley MJ, Muniz-Terrera G, Singh-Manoux A, Kivimaki M, Steptoe A, Capewell S, O'Flaherty M, Brunner EJet al., 2017, Temporal trend in dementia incidence since 2002 and projections for prevalence in England and Wales to 2040: modelling study, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 358, ISSN: 1756-1833

Journal article

Guzman-Castillo M, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Bandosz P, Capewell S, Steptoe A, Singh-Manoux A, Kivimaki M, Shipley MJ, Brunner EJ, O'Flaherty Met al., 2017, Forecasted trends in disability and life expectancy in England and Wales up to 2025: a modelling study, LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 2, Pages: E307-E313, ISSN: 2468-2667

Journal article

Castillo MG, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Bandosz P, Shipley M, Steptoe A, Singh-Manoux A, Kivimaki M, Capewelll S, Brunner E, O'Flaherty Met al., 2017, Predicting Future Trends in Disability Individuals With Cardiovascular Disease: A Modelling Study to 2030, Scientific Sessions of the American-Heart-Association on Epidemiology and Prevention/Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health, Publisher: LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS, ISSN: 0009-7322

Conference paper

Brunner EJ, Welch CA, Shipley MJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Singh-Manoux A, Kivimaki Met al., 2017, Midlife Risk Factors for Impaired Physical and Cognitive Functioning at Older Ages: A Cohort Study, JOURNALS OF GERONTOLOGY SERIES A-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND MEDICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 72, Pages: 237-242, ISSN: 1079-5006

Journal article

Van Wijk DF, Boekholdt SM, Arsenault BJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Wareham NJ, Stroes ESG, Khaw K-Tet al., 2016, C-Reactive Protein Identifies Low-Risk Metabolically Healthy Obese Persons: The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk Prospective Population Study, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2047-9980

Journal article

Castillo MG, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Bandosz P, Shipley M, Capewell S, Singh-Manoux A, Kivimaki M, Brunner E, O'Flaherty Met al., 2016, Future Burden of Morbidity and Disability in England and Wales: A Modelling Study, Scientific Sessions of the American-Heart-Association on Epidemiology and Prevention/Lifestyle and Cardiometabolic Health, Publisher: LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS, ISSN: 0009-7322

Conference paper

Ahmadi-Abhari S, 2015, IMPACT-BAM: A BETTER AGING POLICY SIMULATION MODEL FOR ENGLAND AND WALES, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, Pages: 150-150, ISSN: 0016-9013

Conference paper

Brunner EJ, Shipley MJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Tabak AG, McEniery CM, Wilkinson IB, Marmot MG, Singh-Manoux A, Adiposity KMet al., 2015, Adiposity, obesity, and arterial aging: longitudinal study of aortic stiffness in the Whitehall II cohort (vol 66, pg 294, 2015), HYPERTENSION, Vol: 66, Pages: E10-E10, ISSN: 0194-911X

Journal article

Brunner EJ, Shipley MJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Tabak AG, McEniery CM, Wilkinson IB, Marmot MG, Singh-Manoux A, Kivimaki Met al., 2015, Adiposity, Obesity, and Arterial Aging Longitudinal Study of Aortic Stiffness in the Whitehall II Cohort, HYPERTENSION, Vol: 66, Pages: 294-300, ISSN: 0194-911X

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Kaptoge S, Luben RN, Wareham NJ, Khaw K-Tet al., 2015, Longitudinal association of C-reactive protein and Haemoglobin A(1c) over 13 years: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer - Norfolk study, CARDIOVASCULAR DIABETOLOGY, Vol: 14, ISSN: 1475-2840

Journal article

Leng Y, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Wainwright NWJ, Cappuccio FP, Surtees PG, Luben R, Brayne C, Khaw K-Tet al., 2014, Daytime napping, sleep duration and serum C reactive protein: a population-based cohort study, BMJ OPEN, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2044-6055

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Luben RN, Powell N, Bhaniani A, Chowdhury R, Wareham NJ, Forouhi NG, Khaw K-Tet al., 2014, Dietary intake of carbohydrates and risk of type 2 diabetes: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study, BRITISH JOURNAL OF NUTRITION, Vol: 111, Pages: 342-352, ISSN: 0007-1145

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Kaptoge S, Luben RN, Wareham NJ, Khaw K-Tet al., 2014, Longitudinal Association of C-Reactive Protein and Lung Function Over 13 Years The EPIC-Norfolk Study, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 179, Pages: 48-56, ISSN: 0002-9262

Journal article

van Wijk DF, Boekholdt SM, Wareham NJ, Ahmadi-Abhari S, Kastelein JJP, Stroes ESG, Khaw K-Tet al., 2013, C-Reactive Protein, Fatal and Nonfatal Coronary Artery Disease, Stroke, and Peripheral Artery Disease in the Prospective EPIC-Norfolk Cohort Study, ARTERIOSCLEROSIS THROMBOSIS AND VASCULAR BIOLOGY, Vol: 33, Pages: 2888-2894, ISSN: 1079-5642

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Luben RN, Wareham NJ, Khaw K-Tet al., 2013, C-reactive protein and fracture risk: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer Norfolk Study, BONE, Vol: 56, Pages: 67-72, ISSN: 8756-3282

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Luben RN, Wareham NJ, Khaw K-Tet al., 2013, Distribution and determinants of C-reactive protein in the older adult population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk study, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CLINICAL INVESTIGATION, Vol: 43, Pages: 899-911, ISSN: 0014-2972

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Luben RN, Wareham NJ, Khaw K-Tet al., 2013, Seventeen year risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with C-reactive protein, fibrinogen and leukocyte count in men and women: the EPIC-Norfolk study, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 28, Pages: 541-550, ISSN: 0393-2990

Journal article

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Luben R, Wareham NJ, Khaw KTet al., 2012, Association of C-reactive protein with risk of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer Norfolk Study, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: 159-159, ISSN: 1101-1262

Conference paper

Ahmadi-Abhari S, Luben R, Wareham NJ, Khaw KTet al., 2012, Eighteen-year risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with serum leukocyte count: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer Norfolk Study, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: 159-159, ISSN: 1101-1262

Conference paper

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