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@article{Duran-Olivencia:2021:10.3390/vaccines9070735,
author = {Duran-Olivencia, M and Kalliadasis, S},
doi = {10.3390/vaccines9070735},
journal = {Vaccines},
pages = {1--7},
title = {Understanding soaring corona virus cases and the effect of contagion policies in the UK},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070735},
volume = {9},
year = {2021}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - The number of new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections is frantically risingin almost every country of the EU. The phenomenological explanationoffered is a new mutation of the virus, first identified in the UK.We use publicly available data in combination with a controlled SIRmodel, which captures the effects of preventive measures on the activecases, to show that the current wave of infections is consistentwith a single transmission rate. This suggests that the new SARSCoV-2 variant is as transmissible as previous strains. Our findingsindicate that the relaxation of preventive measures is closely relatedwith the ongoing surge in cases. We simulate the effects of newrestrictions and vaccination campaigns in 2021, demonstrating thatlockdown policies are not fully effective to flatten the curve. For effectivemitigation, it is critical that the public keeps on high alert untilvaccination reaches a critical threshold.
AU  - Duran-Olivencia,M
AU  - Kalliadasis,S
DO  - 10.3390/vaccines9070735
EP  - 7
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2076-393X
SP  - 1
TI  - Understanding soaring corona virus cases and the effect of contagion policies in the UK
T2  - Vaccines
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9070735
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250822v1
UR  - https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/735
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89865
VL  - 9
ER  -

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