Imperial College London

ProfessorSalmanRawaf

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Director of WHO Collaborating Centre
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 8814s.rawaf

 
 
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Location

 

311Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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212 results found

Nashat N, et al, Quezada Yamamoto H, vn Wheel C, Rawaf Set al., Primary care healthcare policy impelmentation in the eastern Mediterranean region; experience of six countries: part ii, European Journal of General Practice, ISSN: 1381-4788

Background: Primary healthcare (PHC) is the cornerstone of health systems for the rightfulaccess and cost-effective. It is a key factor in the global strategy for universal health coverage(UHC). Implementing PHC requires an understanding of health system under prevailingcircumstances essential to implement PHC, but data are unavailable.Objectives: This paper describes and analyses the health systems of Algeria, Kuwait,Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq and PHC status.Methods: Data were collected during a Workshop at 2018 WONCA East MediterraneanRegional Conference in Kuwait. Academic family physicians (FP) and general practitioners(GP) presented their country reports using the WONCA framework of 11 PowerPoint slides.WHO EMRO reflected on how countries’ experiences can contribute to their Frameworks onIntegrated People-Centered Health Services and UHC..Results: The six countries had achieved a great improvement in populations’ health, butcurrently face challenges of health financing, small number of certified family physicians,difficulties to access service and bureaucratic process. Main concerns were the absence of afamily practice model, brain drain and immigration of FPs. Countries differed in building acoherent policy.Conclusion: Priorities should be focused on: developing PHC model in Eastern MediterraneanRegion with advocacy for community-based PHC to policymakers: capacity building forstrengthening PHC-oriented health systems with FP specialty training and restrict practicingto fully trained FPs; engage communities to improve understanding of PHC; adopt quality andaccreditation policies for better services; validation of the referral and follow-up process; and,develop public-private partnership mechanisms to enhance PHC for UHC.

Journal article

GBD 2017 Childhood Cancer Collaborators, 2019, The global burden of childhood and adolescent cancer in 2017: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017., Lancet Oncology, ISSN: 1470-2045

BACKGROUND: Accurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0-19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2017, there were 11·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10·6-12·3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97·3% (97·3-97·3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2·7% (2·7-2·7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82·2% (82·1-82·2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50·3% (50·3-50·3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same

Journal article

Jamil HJ, Niasy A, Jamil MH, Rawaf Set al., Substance Abuse among Middle Eastern Immigrants and Refugees in Greater Detroit, Michigan, U.S., Advances in Environmental Studies, ISSN: 0036-3537

Journal article

Jamil H, Rawaf S, Alsaghayer A, Lee JT, Dubois E, Hadithi T, Majeed A, Hamid F, Swaka A, Arnetez BBet al., Health Assessments of Iraqi Scientists Abroad: Chronic Diseases and Legal Status, ACTA SCIENTIFIC MEDICAL SCIENCES

Journal article

Jamil H, Hamdanm T, Rawaf S, Dubois E, Yasso SSS, Aljoboori S, Jamil SW, Arnetz Bet al., 2019, Pregnancy outcome among Iraqi soldiers & civilians in Iraq and Gulf War 1991, Archives of Epidemiology, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2577-2252

Context: Although Iraqis were exposed to very severe conditions during the 1991 Gulf War, we have very little information on the effect of distance from the war zone on the outcomes of pregnancy and congenital anomalies in children.Aim: To determine if pregnancy outcomes vary by distance from the 1991Gulf War battle zone.Methods: The study sample consisted of men between the ages 18-45 years and residents within 360 kilometres in Iraqi providences of Basra & Messan at time of 1991 Gulf War. During 2002, 720 out of 1150 participant were enrolled in the study because they were married and had at least one child. We divided the population study into two main groups: battle and non-battle zone and studied the effects of war on pregnancy outcomes.Results: Congenital anomalies in the non-battle zones appear to be significantly higher, which implies that the impact of war was not restricted to the war zone.Conclusion: There is no relationship between geographical closeness to Kuwait and adverse pregnancy outcome.

Journal article

Lovell B, Dhillon R, Khader A, Seita A, Al-Jadba G, Kitamura A, Rawaf S, Newson Ret al., 2019, Delivering and evaluating a scalable training model for strengthening family medicine in resource-limited environments: the Gaza experience, BJGP Open, ISSN: 2398-3795

Background: Since 2007 Gaza Palestine has been subject to blockade affecting over 1.9 million people. This denies health professionals’ access to Continuing Professional Development (CPD). In Gaza, family physicians are scarce, and their level of training does not meet the needs of UNRWA’s Family Health Team model for better population health. Aim: This study sought to develop a postgraduate training programme for Gazan doctors via a Diploma in Family Medicine and evaluate its impact on physicians and patients.Design and setting: A mixed-methods evaluation of a postgraduate Diploma Methods: The programme was delivered over one year, to 15 primary care doctors. The impact was evaluated through focus group discussions and patient feedback questionnaire survey comparing FM PG Diploma graduate doctors and doctors without the FM PG Diploma. Results: All participating doctors graduated successfully and found the experience extremely positive. Trainees felt that the Diploma helped them take more individualised approach to patients; have a better understanding of psychosocial elements affecting patient health; feel more inclined towards team-working and collaborative approaches to healthcare; and more insight into non-verbal communication such as active listening and tactile gestures. Statistical analysis of patients feedback showed significantly improved patient-reported outcomes and satisfaction when treated by course diplomates compared to non-diplomates. Conclusion: Where there are limited training opportunities, investment in a structured Postgraduate Diploma training programme can improve quality of health service delivery. UNRWA’s experience in Gaza demonstrates the value of a scalable model in resource-limited settings.

Journal article

Greenfield G, Majeed B, Hayhoe B, Rawaf S, Majeed Aet al., 2019, Rethinking primary care user fees: is charging a fee for appointments a solution to NHS underfunding?, Br J Gen Pract, Vol: 69, Pages: 280-281

Journal article

Chang AY, Cowling K, Micah AE, Chapin A, Chen CS, Ikilezi G, Sadat N, Tsakalos G, Wu J, Younker T, Zhao Y, Zlavog BS, Abbafati C, Ahmed AE, Alam K, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almalki MJ, Alvis-Guzman N, Ammar W, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Bagherzadeh M, Bärnighausen TW, Baune BT, Bayati M, Belay YB, Belay YA, Belete H, Berbada DA, Berman AE, Beuran M, Bijani A, Busse R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Catalá-López F, Chauhan BG, Constantin M-M, Crowe CS, Cucu A, Dalal K, De Neve J-W, Deiparine S, Demeke FM, Do HP, Dubey M, El Tantawi M, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Fakhar M, Fazaeli AA, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Galan A, Gamkrelidze A, Gezae KE, Ghajar A, Ghashghaee A, Goginashvili K, Haakenstad A, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hasanpoor E, Hassen HY, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Henok A, Heredia-Pi I, Herteliu C, Hoang CL, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc S, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jakovljevic M, Jalali A, James SL, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kadel R, Karami Matin B, Kasaeian A, Kasaye HK, Kassaw MW, Kazemi Karyani A, Khabiri R, Khan J, Khan MN, Khang Y-H, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kohler S, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Leung R, Lim L-L, Lorkowski S, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mansourian M, Mantovani LG, Massenburg BB, McKee M, Mehta V, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Milevska Kostova N, Miller TR, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohajer B, Mohammad Darwesh A, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Morrison SD, Mousavi SM, Muthupandian S, Nagarajan AJ, Nangia V, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen SH, Nosratnejad S, Oladimeji O, Olgiati S, Olusanya JO, Onwujekwe OE, Otstavnov SS, Pana A, Pereira DM, Piroozi B, Prada SI, Qorbani M, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranta A, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rezaei S, Roro EM, Rostami A, Rubino S, Salahshoor M, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Savicet al., 2019, Past, present, and future of global health financing: A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995–2050, The Lancet, Pages: 1-28, ISSN: 0140-6736

SummaryBackgroundComprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries.MethodsWe estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories—government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending—and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to gene

Journal article

GBD 2016 Neurology Collaborators, 2019, Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016., Lancet Neurology, ISSN: 1474-4422

BACKGROUND: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. METHODS: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs we

Journal article

Noormal B, Eltayeb E, Al Nsour M, Mohsni E, Khader Y, Salter M, McNabb S, Herrera Guibert D, Rawaf S, Baidjoe A, Ikram A, Longuet C, Al Serouri A, Lami F, Khattabi A, AlMudarra S, Iblan I, Samy S, Bouafif Ép Ben Alaya N, Al-Salihi Qet al., 2019, Innovative Approaches to Improve Public Health Practice in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Findings From the Sixth Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network Regional Conference., JMIR Public Health Surveill, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2369-2960

Public health professionals in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) have limited access to continuing education, including workshops and conferences in public health. Held under the theme Innovative Approaches: Adapting to the Current EMR Context, the Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network (EMPHNET) organized and conducted the Sixth EMPHNET Regional Conference from March 26 to 29, 2018. This paper summarizes the key activities including workshops, roundtable discussions, oral and poster presentations, keynote speeches, and side meetings. Before the opening, 5 preconference workshops were held: "Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) Accreditation," "Innovative Public Health Surveillance," "Human and Animal Brucellosis," "Rapid Response Teams," and "Polio Transition and Routine Immunization." The conference hosted 6 roundtable discussions: "Consolidation of the FETP Network," "One Health to Achieve Global Health Security," "Polio Eradication Efforts and Transition Planning for Measles Elimination," "Mobile Data Collection and Other Innovative Tools to Enhance Decision Making," "Confronting Candida auris: An Emerging Multidrug-resistant Global Pathogen," and "Functioning and Sustainable Country Public Health Emergency Response Operation Framework." One of the conference's key objectives was to provide a space for FETP residents, graduates, and public health professionals to showcase achievements. A total of 421 abstracts were submitted and after professional review, 34.9% (147/421) were accepted (111 for oral presentations and 36 for poster presentations) and published by Iproceeding. The conference met the primary objectives of showcasing the public health accomplishments and contributions of the EMR, encouraging the exchange of ideas and coordination among stakeholders, and engaging cross-sectoral workforce in producing recommendations for approac

Journal article

Alnuaimi A, Rawaf S, Hassounah S, Chehab Met al., 2019, Use of mobile applications in the management of overweight and obesity in primary and secondary care, JRSM Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2054-2704

Mobile technology has emerged as a potentially useful application in the process of facilitating weight loss management. While several empirical studies have demonstrated the positive effects of mobile-based interventions, the extent of such effectiveness is still a topic of debate. Thus, the current systematic review involved searching electronic databases for studies on the use of mobile app-based interventions in the management of overweight and obesity among adults over 18 years of age in a primary and secondary care setting. The results of the review revealed that mobile apps are effective tools for weight loss management and sustaining such loss when compared to standard interventions. However, further research is needed to consider the sustained benefits and the applicability of mobile app-based interventions for large-scale population coverage.

Journal article

Rawaf S, Raheem M, Rawaf D, Proactive primary car: integrating public health into primary care, BOOK: Family Practice in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Journal article

Dubois E, McNally L, Andrews L, Dungbo F, Rawaf S, Short E, Wassum Ket al., Developing and implementing health systems policy to improve the delivery of brief tobacco interventions, Strengthening health systems for treating tobacco dependence in primary care: building capacity for tobacco control, WHO Technical Report Series, ISSN: 0512-3054

Journal article

James SL, Theadom A, Ellenbogen RG, Bannick MS, Montjoy-Venning W, Lucchesi LR, Abbasi N, Abdulkader R, Abraha HN, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Alebel A, Alghnam SA, Ali BA, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Ariani F, Asefa NG, Asgedom SW, Atique S, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Badali H, Badawi A, Balalla S, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay YA, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Beuran M, Bhalla A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biffino M, Bijani A, Bililign N, Birungi C, Boufous S, Brazinova A, Brown AW, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Chaiah Y, Champs AP, Chang J-C, Choi J-YJ, Christopher DJ, Cooper C, Crowe CS, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daryani A, Davitoiu DV, Degefa MG, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Drake TM, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, El-Khatib Z, Ofori-Asenso R, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Esteghamati S, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganji M, Gankpe FG, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gezae KE, Gopalkrishna G, Goulart AC, Haagsma JA, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Haro JM, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Hendrie D, Henok A, Hibstu DT, Hoffman HJ, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hosseini SM, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Hussen MA, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jakovljevic M, Jayaraman S, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jones KM, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kahssay M, Kalani R, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassa ZY, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khalil I, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khang Y-H, Khazaie H, Khoja AT, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kim D, Kim Y-E, Kisa A, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defoet al., 2019, Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, The Lancet Neurology, Vol: 18, Pages: 56-87, ISSN: 1474-4422

BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury.MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.FindingsIn 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30–30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78–1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331–412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11–16) per 100 000 for SC

Journal article

Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, 2019, Medico de familia e communidade na saudi publica, Tratado de medicina de família e comunidade: princípios, formação e prática. Ediciao 2, Editors: Gusso, Lopes, Dias, Publisher: Porto Alegre: Artmed, Pages: 20-27, ISBN: 9788582715352

Book chapter

Feigin VL, Nguyen G, Cercy K, Johnson CO, Alam T, Parmar PG, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abd-Allah F, Abejie AN, Abyu GY, Ademi Z, Agarwal G, Ahmed MB, Akinyemi RO, Al-Raddadi R, Aminde LN, Amlie-Lefond C, Ansari H, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Ayele HT, Banach M, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Barnighausen T, Barregard L, Basu S, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Bejot Y, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe DF, Boneya DJ, Brainin M, Campos-Nonato IR, Caso V, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catala-Lopez F, Christensen H, Criqui MH, Damasceno A, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davletov K, de Courten B, deVeber G, Dokova K, Edessa D, Endres M, Faraon EJA, Farvid MS, Fischer F, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Gall SL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Gillum RF, Giroud M, Goulart AC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Hachinski V, Hamadeh RR, Hankey GJ, Hareri HA, Havmoeller R, Hay SI, Hegazy MI, Hibstu DT, James SL, Jeemon P, John D, Jonas JB, Jozwiak J, Kalani R, Kandel A, Kasaeian A, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khang Y-H, Khubchandani J, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kivimaki M, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kravchenko M, Krishnamurthi R, Kumar GA, Lafranconi A, Lavados PM, Legesse Y, Li Y, Liang X, Lo WD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Loy CT, Mackay MT, Abd El Razek HM, Mahdavi M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mantovani LG, Martins SCO, Mate KK, Mazidi M, Mehata S, Meier T, Melaku YA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski T, Miller TR, Ibrahim NM, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moosazadeh M, Moran AE, Musa KI, Negoi RI, Minh N, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Tran TT, Nguyen TT, Ningrum DNA, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, O'Donnell MJ, Olagunju AT, Onuma OK, Owolabi MO, Parsaeian M, Patton GC, Piradov M, Pletcher MA, Pourmalek F, Prakash V, Qorbani M, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Ranta A, Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Renzaho AMN, Robinson SR, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Salomon JA, Santalucia P, Santos IS, Sartorius B, Schutte AE, Sepanlou SG, Shafieesabet A, Shaikh MA, Shamsizadeh M, Sheth KN, Sisay M, Shin M-J, Shiue I, Silvaet al., 2018, Global, regional, and country-specific lifetime risks of stroke, 1990 and 2016, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 379, Pages: 2429-2437, ISSN: 0028-4793

BackgroundThe lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.MethodsWe used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.ResultsThe estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle–SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calcul

Journal article

Barbazee E, Pedersen HB, Birtanov Y, Huber M, Immonen K, Jakob M, Kluge H, Krngos D, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Rawaf S, Starval A, Tello Jet al., 2018, Ten evidence-based policy accelerators for transforming primary health care in the WHO European Region, Public Health Panorama, Vol: 4, ISSN: 2412-544X

Journal article

Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Arnlov J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi Aet al., 2018, Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7)), The Lancet, Vol: 392, ISSN: 0140-6736

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article.

Journal article

Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castet al., 2018, Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1736-1788, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundGlobal development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.MethodsThe causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.FindingsAt the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest f

Journal article

Stanaway JD, Afshin A, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Abate D, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adane AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Ademi Z, Adetokunboh O, Adib MG, Admasie A, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afarideh M, Agarwal G, Aggarwal A, Aghayan SA, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alandab F, Alam K, Alam S, Alam T, Alashi A, Alavian SM, Alene KA, Ali K, Ali SM, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anber NH, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Anto JM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Appiah LT, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Amlov J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Ataro Z, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeff A, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Ball K, Bellew SH, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bamighausen TW, Barrero LH, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bejoy Y, Bekele BB, Bekru FT, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bergeron G, Berhane A, Bemabe E, Bemstein RS, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Bjorge T, Blacker BF, Bleyer A, Borschmann R, Bou-Orm IR, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briko AN, Britton G, Brugha T, Buchbindet R, Burnett RT, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Cardenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela CA Ret al., 2018, Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, LANCET, Vol: 392, Pages: 1923-1994, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risk

Journal article

Kyu HH, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abil OZ, Aboyans V, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Ademi Z, Adetokunboh OO, Adib MG, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal A, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Ayman ZA-A, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alashi A, Alavian SM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Aminde LN, Amini E, Amiresmaili M, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Arnlov J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Ataro Z, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bamighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Bekru ET, Belachew AB, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Beuran M, Beyranvand F, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Bjorge T, Bleyer A, Bobasa EM, Bou-Orm IR, Boufous S, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Briko AN, Britton G, Brugha T, Buchbinder R, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Rincon JCC, Cano J, Cardenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Castro F, Catala-Lopez F, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang J-Cet al., 2018, Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1859-1922, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundHow long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.MethodsWe used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males.FindingsGlobally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1–7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3–65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7–73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0–5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3–12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1&ndash

Journal article

James SL, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe Z, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adib MG, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alashi A, Alavian SM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alouani MML, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arabloo J, Arauz A, Aremu O, Ariani F, Armoon B, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Ataro Z, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AGet al., 2018, Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1789-1858, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.MethodsWe estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calcula

Journal article

Murray CJL, Callender CSKH, Kulikoff XR, Srinivasan V, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdoli N, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Abejie AN, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abreu DMX, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi A, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TMM, Atique S, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Babalola TK, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Banach M, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bergeron G, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Biswas T, Bizuneh H, Bleyer A, Basara BB, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Briant PS, Britton G, Burstein R, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzanoet al., 2018, Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1995-2051, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundPopulation estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.MethodsWe estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migrat

Journal article

Lozano R, Fullman N, Abate D, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe ND, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Abyu GY, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Acharya P, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshari M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aghayan SA, Agius D, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Albujeer A, Alebel A, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Almasi A, Al-Maskari F, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amenu K, Amini E, Ammar W, Anber NH, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Appiah LT, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azarpazhooh MR, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Babalola TK, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banerjee A, Banoub JAM, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barthelemy CM, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Battista RJ, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Berhe AK, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhansali Aet al., 2018, Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 2091-2138, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundEfforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.MethodsWe measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected fo

Journal article

Dicker D, Nguyen G, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdel-Rahman O, Abdi A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abdurahman AA, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abebo TA, Aboyans V, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya P, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adhikari TB, Adib MG, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Aggarwal R, Aghayan SA, Agrawal S, Agrawal A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadi A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MLCB, Ahmed S, Ahmed MB, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akanda AS, Akbari ME, Akibu M, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alebel A, Aleman AV, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Ali R, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen CA, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Anlay DZ, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Areri HA, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asadi-Lari M, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Ataro Z, Atey TMM, Athari SS, Atique S, Atre SR, Atteraya MS, Attia EF, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Awuah B, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayele HT, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Ayuk TB, Azzopardi PS, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Badali H, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bali AG, Banach M, Banstola A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Basu A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay AG, Belay E, Belay SA, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhala N, Bhatia E, Bhatt S, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Bisanziet al., 2018, Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1684-1735, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundAssessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.MethodsThe GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different compone

Journal article

Steel N, Ford JA, Newton JN, Davis ACJ, Vos T, Naghavi M, Glenn S, Hughes A, Dalton AM, Stockton D, Humphreys C, Dallat M, Schmidt J, Flowers J, Fox S, Abubakar I, Aldridge RW, Baker A, Brayne C, Brugha T, Capewell S, Car J, Cooper C, Ezzati M, Fitzpatrick J, Greaves F, Hay R, Hay S, Kee F, Larson HJ, Lyons RA, Majeed A, McKee M, Rawaf S, Rutter H, Saxena S, Sheikh A, Smeeth L, Viner RM, Vollset SE, Williams HC, Wolfe C, Woolf A, Murray CJLet al., 2018, Changes in health in the countries of the UK and 150 English Local Authority areas 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1647-1661, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundPrevious studies have reported national and regional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for the UK. Because of substantial variation in health within the UK, action to improve it requires comparable estimates of disease burden and risks at country and local levels. The slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy requires further investigation. We use GBD 2016 data on mortality, causes of death, and disability to analyse the burden of disease in the countries of the UK and within local authorities in England by deprivation quintile.MethodsWe extracted data from the GBD 2016 to estimate years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and attributable risks from 1990 to 2016 for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, the UK, and 150 English Upper-Tier Local Authorities. We estimated the burden of disease by cause of death, condition, year, and sex. We analysed the association between burden of disease and socioeconomic deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We present results for all 264 GBD causes of death combined and the leading 20 specific causes, and all 84 GBD risks or risk clusters combined and 17 specific risks or risk clusters.FindingsThe leading causes of age-adjusted YLLs in all UK countries in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, lung cancers, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Age-standardised rates of YLLs for all causes varied by two times between local areas in England according to levels of socioeconomic deprivation (from 14 274 per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval 12 791–15 875] in Blackpool to 6888 [6145–7739] in Wokingham). Some Upper-Tier Local Authorities, particularly those in London, did better than expected for their level of deprivation. Allowing for differences in age structure, more deprived Upper-Tier Local Authorities had higher attributable YLLs for most major risk factors in the GBD.

Journal article

Fitzmaurice C, Akinyemiju TF, Al Lami FH, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaborationet al., 2018, Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2016. A systematic analysis for the global Burden of disease study, JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol: 4, Pages: 1553-1568, ISSN: 0098-7484

Importance The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required.Objective To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus.Evidence Review Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition.Findings In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, −1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or terri

Journal article

Rawaf S, Allen L, Dubois E, Majeed A, Myrup AC, Raheem M, Rawaf D, Razavi Aet al., 2018, Primary health care: closing the gap between public health and primary care through integration, WHO Technical Report Series, ISSN: 0512-3054

Journal article

Alshaikh MK, Rawaf S, Quezada-Yamamoto H, 2018, Cardiovascular risk and fruit and vegetable consumption among women in KSA. A cross-sectional study, Journal of Taibah University Medical Sciences, Vol: 13, Pages: 444-451, ISSN: 1658-3612

ObjectivesThis study aims to assess fruit and vegetable consumption among Saudi women to identify perceived benefits and barriers associated with a healthy diet in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prevention and to correlate Framingham risk scores (FRSs) with the perceived barriers.MethodsA questionnaire adapted from the Health Beliefs Related to Cardiovascular Disease Scale was administered to women attending a primary care centre in KSA. In addition to descriptive statistics, a chi-square test and multiple linear regression analysis were used to determine the association between perceptions of benefit and barriers with FRS categories and between mean FRS and perceived barriers.ResultsA total of 503 women were included in this study, and 75% of the women were older than 45 years. More than 60% of women were obese, and 97% consumed 1–3 fruit and vegetable servings per day, whereas only 1.4% consumed fruits and vegetables 5 or more times per day. The majority of women were aware of the benefits of a healthy diet in CVD prevention. No significant difference between FRS and perceived benefits or barriers was observed. Barriers across the low- to high-risk groups included a lack of knowledge about a ‘healthy diet’, insufficient time to cook, food affordability, and having more important problems. Women who disagreed on barriers had negative beta coefficients for the mean FRS (p < 0.03).ConclusionsIn this study cohort, fruit and vegetable intake was lower than the recommended guidelines. Despite awareness of the benefits of a healthy diet in CVD prevention, very few women understood the true meaning of ‘healthy diet’. A direct association between FRS and perceptions/barriers could not be validated. Perceived barriers could be addressed by integrating innovative educational campaigns to existing models of the Healthy Food Plan.

Journal article

Blanchet K, El-Zein A, Langer A, Sato M, et al, Rawaf S, et alet al., 2018, Support for UNRWA’s survival, The Lancet, Vol: 392, Pages: 1009-1010, ISSN: 0140-6736

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