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@article{Murray:2018:10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5,
author = {Murray, CJL and Callender, CSKH and Kulikoff, XR and Srinivasan, V and Abate, D and Abate, KH and Abay, SM and Abbasi, N and Abbastabar, H and Abdela, J and Abdelalim, A and Abdel-Rahman, O and Abdi, A and Abdoli, N and Abdollahpour, I and Abdulkader, RS and Abebe, HT and Abebe, M and Abebe, Z and Abebo, TA and Abejie, AN and Aboyans, V and Abraha, HN and Abreu, DMX and Abrham, AR and Abu-Raddad, LJ and Abu-Rmeileh, NME and Accrombessi, MMK and Acharya, P and Adamu, AA and Adebayo, OM and Adedeji, IA and Adekanmbi, V and Adetokunboh, OO and Adhena, BM and Adhikari, TB and Adib, MG and Adou, AK and Adsuar, JC and Afarideh, M and Afshin, A and Agarwal, G and Agesa, KM and Aghayan, SA and Agrawal, S and Ahmadi, A and Ahmadi, M and Ahmed, MB and Ahmed, S and Aichour, AN and Aichour, I and Aichour, MTE and Akanda, AS and Akbari, ME and Akibu, M and Akinyemi, RO and Akinyemiju, T and Akseer, N and Alahdab, F and Al-Aly, Z and Alam, K and Alebel, A and Aleman, AV and Alene, KA and Al-Eyadhy, },
doi = {10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5},
journal = {The Lancet},
pages = {1995--2051},
title = {Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5},
volume = {392},
year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundPopulation estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.MethodsWe estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migrat
AU  - Murray,CJL
AU  - Callender,CSKH
AU  - Kulikoff,XR
AU  - Srinivasan,V
AU  - Abate,D
AU  - Abate,KH
AU  - Abay,SM
AU  - Abbasi,N
AU  - Abbastabar,H
AU  - Abdela,J
AU  - Abdelalim,A
AU  - Abdel-Rahman,O
AU  - Abdi,A
AU  - Abdoli,N
AU  - Abdollahpour,I
AU  - Abdulkader,RS
AU  - Abebe,HT
AU  - Abebe,M
AU  - Abebe,Z
AU  - Abebo,TA
AU  - Abejie,AN
AU  - Aboyans,V
AU  - Abraha,HN
AU  - Abreu,DMX
AU  - Abrham,AR
AU  - Abu-Raddad,LJ
AU  - Abu-Rmeileh,NME
AU  - Accrombessi,MMK
AU  - Acharya,P
AU  - Adamu,AA
AU  - Adebayo,OM
AU  - Adedeji,IA
AU  - Adekanmbi,V
AU  - Adetokunboh,OO
AU  - Adhena,BM
AU  - Adhikari,TB
AU  - Adib,MG
AU  - Adou,AK
AU  - Adsuar,JC
AU  - Afarideh,M
AU  - Afshin,A
AU  - Agarwal,G
AU  - Agesa,KM
AU  - Aghayan,SA
AU  - Agrawal,S
AU  - Ahmadi,A
AU  - Ahmadi,M
AU  - Ahmed,MB
AU  - Ahmed,S
AU  - Aichour,AN
AU  - Aichour,I
AU  - Aichour,MTE
AU  - Akanda,AS
AU  - Akbari,ME
AU  - Akibu,M
AU  - Akinyemi,RO
AU  - Akinyemiju,T
AU  - Akseer,N
AU  - Alahdab,F
AU  - Al-Aly,Z
AU  - Alam,K
AU  - Alebel,A
AU  - Aleman,AV
AU  - Alene,KA
AU  - Al-Eyadhy,A
AU  - Ali,R
AU  - Alijanzadeh,M
AU  - Alizadeh-Navaei,R
AU  - Aljunid,SM
AU  - Alkerwi,A
AU  - Alla,F
AU  - Allebeck,P
AU  - Almasi,A
AU  - Alonso,J
AU  - Al-Raddadi,RM
AU  - Alsharif,U
AU  - Altirkawi,K
AU  - Alvis-Guzman,N
AU  - Amare,AT
AU  - Ammar,W
AU  - Anber,NH
AU  - Andrei,CL
AU  - Androudi,S
AU  - Animut,MD
AU  - Ansari,H
AU  - Ansha,MG
AU  - Antonio,CAT
AU  - Appiah,SCY
AU  - Aremu,O
AU  - Areri,HA
AU  - Arian,N
AU  - Ärnlöv,J
AU  - Artaman,A
AU  - Aryal,KK
AU  - Asayesh,H
AU  - Asfaw,ET
AU  - Asgedom,SW
AU  - Assadi,R
AU  - Atey,TMM
AU  - Atique,S
AU  - Atteraya,MS
AU  - Ausloos,M
AU  - Avokpaho,EFGA
AU  - Awasthi,A
AU  - Ayala,Quintanilla BP
AU  - Ayele,Y
AU  - Ayer,R
AU  - Ayuk,TB
AU  - Azzopardi,PS
AU  - Babalola,TK
AU  - Babazadeh,A
AU  - Badali,H
AU  - Badawi,A
AU  - Bali,AG
AU  - Banach,M
AU  - Barker-Collo,SL
AU  - Bärnighausen,TW
AU  - Barrero,LH
AU  - Basaleem,H
AU  - Bassat,Q
AU  - Basu,A
AU  - Baune,BT
AU  - Baynes,HW
AU  - Beghi,E
AU  - Behzadifar,M
AU  - Behzadifar,M
AU  - Bekele,BB
AU  - Belachew,AB
AU  - Belay,AG
AU  - Belay,E
AU  - Belay,SA
AU  - Belay,YA
AU  - Bell,ML
AU  - Bello,AK
AU  - Bennett,DA
AU  - Bensenor,IM
AU  - Bergeron,G
AU  - Berhane,A
AU  - Berman,AE
AU  - Bernabe,E
AU  - Bernstein,RS
AU  - Bertolacci,GJ
AU  - Beuran,M
AU  - Bhattarai,S
AU  - Bhaumik,S
AU  - Bhutta,ZA
AU  - Biadgo,B
AU  - Bijani,A
AU  - Bikbov,B
AU  - Bililign,N
AU  - Bin,Sayeed MS
AU  - Birlik,SM
AU  - Birungi,C
AU  - Biswas,T
AU  - Bizuneh,H
AU  - Bleyer,A
AU  - Basara,BB
AU  - Bosetti,C
AU  - Boufous,S
AU  - Brady,OJ
AU  - Bragazzi,NL
AU  - Brainin,M
AU  - Brazinova,A
AU  - Breitborde,NJK
AU  - Brenner,H
AU  - Brewer,JD
AU  - Briant,PS
AU  - Britton,G
AU  - Burstein,R
AU  - Busse,R
AU  - Butt,ZA
AU  - Cahuana-Hurtado,L
AU  - Campos-Nonato,IR
AU  - Campuzano
DO  - 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5
EP  - 2051
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 0140-6736
SP  - 1995
TI  - Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
T2  - The Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(18)32278-5
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/64411
VL  - 392
ER  -

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