Imperial College London

Steven Riley

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics



+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley




UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus






BibTex format

author = {Kucharski, AJ and Lessler, J and Cummings, DAT and Riley, S},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.2004974},
journal = {PLoS Biology},
title = {Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics},
url = {},
volume = {16},
year = {2018}

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

AB - Human immunity influences the evolution and impact of influenza strains. Because individuals are infected with multiple influenza strains during their lifetime, and each virus can generate a cross-reactive antibody response, it is challenging to quantify the processes thatshape observed immune responses or to reliably detect recent infection from serologicalsamples. Using a Bayesian model of antibody dynamics at multiple timescales, we explaincomplex cross-reactive antibody landscapes by inferring participants’ histories of infectionwith serological data from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of influenza A/H3N2 insouthern China and Vietnam. We find that individual-level influenza antibody profiles canbe explained by a short-lived, broadly cross-reactive response that decays within a yearto leave a smaller long-term response acting against a narrower range of strains. We alsodemonstrate that accounting for dynamic immune responses alongside infection history canprovide a more accurate alternative to traditional definitions of seroconversion for the estimation of infection attack rates. Our work provides a general model for quantifying aspectsof influenza immunity acting at multiple timescales based on contemporary serological dataand suggests a two-armed immune response to influenza infection consistent with competitive dynamics between B cell populations. This approach to analysing multiple timescalesfor antigenic responses could also be applied to other multistrain pathogens such as dengueand related flaviviruses.
AU - Kucharski,AJ
AU - Lessler,J
AU - Cummings,DAT
AU - Riley,S
DO - 10.1371/journal.pbio.2004974
PY - 2018///
SN - 1544-9173
TI - Timescales of influenza A/H3N2 antibody dynamics
T2 - PLoS Biology
UR -
UR -
UR -
VL - 16
ER -