Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
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Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Nouvellet:2020:10.25561/79643,
author = {Nouvellet, P and Bhatia, S and Cori, A and Ainslie, K and Baguelin, M and Bhatt, S and Boonyasiri, A and Brazeau, N and Cattarino, L and Cooper, L and Coupland, H and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Dighe, A and Djaafara, A and Dorigatti, I and Eales, O and van, Elsland S and Nscimento, F and Fitzjohn, R and Gaythorpe, K and Geidelberg, L and Grassly, N and Green, W and Hamlet, A and Hauck, K and Hinsley, W and Imai, N and Jeffrey, B and Knock, E and Laydon, D and Lees, J and Mangal, T and Mellan, T and Nedjati, Gilani G and Parag, K and Pons, Salort M and Ragonnet-Cronin, M and Riley, S and Unwin, H and Verity, R and Vollmer, M and Volz, E and Walker, P and Walters, C and Wang, H and Watson, O and Whittaker, C and Whittles, L and Xi, X and Ferguson, N and Donnelly, C},
doi = {10.25561/79643},
title = {Report 26: Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/79643},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control transmission of SARS-CoV-2by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, reducing the number ofcontacts.Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing. Here, we develop aframework to infer the relationship between mobility and the key measure of population-level diseasetransmission, the reproduction number (R). The framework is applied to 53 countries with sustainedSARS-CoV-2 transmission based on two distinct country-specific automated measures of humanmobility, Apple and Google mobility data.For both datasets, the relationship between mobility and transmission was consistent within andacross countries and explained more than 85% of the variance in the observed variation intransmissibility. We quantified country-specific mobility thresholds defined as the reduction inmobility necessary to expect a decline in new infections (R<1).While social contacts were sufficiently reduced in France, Spain and the United Kingdom to controlCOVID-19 as of the 10th of May, we find that enhanced control measures are still warranted for themajority of countries. We found encouraging early evidence of some decoupling of transmission andmobility in 10 countries, a key indicator of successful easing of social-distancing restrictions.Easing social-distancing restrictions should be considered very carefully, as small increases in contactrates are likely to risk resurgence even where COVID-19 is apparently under control. Overall, strongpopulation-wide social-distancing measures are effective to control COVID-19; however gradualeasing of restrictions must be accompanied by alternative interventions, such as efficient contacttracing, to ensure control.
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Bhatt,S
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Brazeau,N
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Cooper,L
AU  - Coupland,H
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Dighe,A
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Nscimento,F
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Geidelberg,L
AU  - Grassly,N
AU  - Green,W
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hauck,K
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Jeffrey,B
AU  - Knock,E
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Lees,J
AU  - Mangal,T
AU  - Mellan,T
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Parag,K
AU  - Pons,Salort M
AU  - Ragonnet-Cronin,M
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Unwin,H
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Vollmer,M
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Whittles,L
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Donnelly,C
DO  - 10.25561/79643
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 26: Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/79643
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-06-08-COVID19-Report-26.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79643
ER  -
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