Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
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Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Bhatia:2020:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.1,
author = {Bhatia, S and Imai, N and Cuomo-Dannenburg, G and Baguelin, M and Boonyasiri, A and Cori, A and Cucunuba, Perez Z and Dorigatti, I and Fitzjohn, R and Fu, H and Gaythorpe, K and Ghani, A and Hamlet, A and Hinsley, W and Laydon, D and Nedjati, Gilani G and Okell, L and Riley, S and Thompson, H and van, Elsland S and Volz, E and Wang, H and Wang, Y and Whittaker, C and Xi, X and Donnelly, CA and Ferguson, NM},
doi = {10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.1},
publisher = {F1000 Research Ltd},
title = {Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.1},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there have been more than 152 affected regions and countries with over 110,000 confirmed cases outside mainland China.Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries.Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that more than two thirds (70%, 95% CI: 54% - 80%, compared to Singapore; 75%, 95% CI: 66% - 82%, compared to multiple countries) of cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected.Conclusions: These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.
AU  - Bhatia,S
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Cuomo-Dannenburg,G
AU  - Baguelin,M
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Cucunuba,Perez Z
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Fitzjohn,R
AU  - Fu,H
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Laydon,D
AU  - Nedjati,Gilani G
AU  - Okell,L
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - van,Elsland S
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Wang,Y
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Xi,X
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Ferguson,NM
DO  - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.1
PB  - F1000 Research Ltd
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15805.1
UR  - https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-143/v1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79924
ER  -
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