Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
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Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Kwok:2015:10.1371/journal.pone.0137959,
author = {Kwok, KO and Davoudi, B and Riley, S and Pourbohloul, B},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0137959},
journal = {PLOS One},
title = {Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases in a community with heterogeneous contact pattern: Using data from Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza as an illustrative example},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137959},
volume = {10},
year = {2015}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Emerging and re-emerging infections such as SARS (2003) and pandemic H1N1 (2009)have caused concern for public health researchers and policy makers due to the increasedburden of these diseases on health care systems. This concern has prompted the use ofmathematical models to evaluate strategies to control disease spread, making these modelsinvaluable tools to identify optimal intervention strategies. A particularly important quantityin infectious disease epidemiology is the basic reproduction number, R0. Estimation ofthis quantity is crucial for effective control responses in the early phase of an epidemic. Inour previous study, an approach for estimating the basic reproduction number in real timewas developed. This approach uses case notification data and the structure of potentialtransmission contacts to accurately estimate R0 from the limited amount of informationavailable at the early stage of an outbreak. Based on this approach, we extend the existingmethodology; the most recent method features intra- and inter-age groups contact heterogeneity.Given the number of newly reported cases at the early stage of the outbreak, withparsimony assumptions on removal distribution and infectivity profile of the diseases, experimentsto estimate real time R0 under different levels of intra- and inter-group contact heterogeneityusing two age groups are presented. We show that the new method convergesmore quickly to the actual value of R0 than the previous one, in particular when there ishigh-level intra-group and inter-group contact heterogeneity. With the age specific contactpatterns, number of newly reported cases, removal distribution, and information about the natural history of the 2009 pandemic influenza in Hong Kong, we also use the extendedmodel to estimate R0 and age-specific R0.
AU  - Kwok,KO
AU  - Davoudi,B
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Pourbohloul,B
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0137959
PY  - 2015///
SN  - 1932-6203
TI  - Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases in a community with heterogeneous contact pattern: Using data from Hong Kong 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza as an illustrative example
T2  - PLOS One
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137959
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/28036
VL  - 10
ER  -
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