Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
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Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Pitzer:2016:10.1098/rsif.2016.0138,
author = {Pitzer, VE and Aguas, R and Riley, S and Loeffen, WL and Wood, JL and Grenfell, BT},
doi = {10.1098/rsif.2016.0138},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Society Interface},
title = {High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0138},
volume = {13},
year = {2016}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Pigs have long been hypothesized to play a central role in the emergence of novel human influenza A virus (IAV) strains, by serving as mixing vessels for mammalian and avian variants. However, the key issue of viral persistence in swine populations at different scales is ill understood. We address this gap using epidemiological models calibrated against seroprevalence data from Dutch finishing pigs to estimate the 'critical herd size' (CHS) for IAV persistence. We then examine the viral phylogenetic evidence for persistence by comparing human and swine IAV. Models suggest a CHS of approximately 3000 pigs above which influenza was likely to persist, i.e. orders of magnitude lower than persistence thresholds for IAV and other acute viruses in humans. At national and regional scales, we found much stronger empirical signatures of prolonged persistence of IAV in swine compared with human populations. These striking levels of persistence in small populations are driven by the high recruitment rate of susceptible piglets, and have significant implications for management of swine and for overall patterns of genetic diversity of IAV.
AU  - Pitzer,VE
AU  - Aguas,R
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Loeffen,WL
AU  - Wood,JL
AU  - Grenfell,BT
DO  - 10.1098/rsif.2016.0138
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 1742-5689
TI  - High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds
T2  - Journal of the Royal Society Interface
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0138
UR  - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27358277
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/37572
VL  - 13
ER  -
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