My work focuses on understanding infectious disease dynamics through mathematical and statistical modelling as well as outbreak analysis. I have experience in real time outbreak analysis and am interested in vector borne diseases, in particular the influence of climate on transmission dynamics.
Much of my work has policy implications and is driven by the need to answer key questions of public health concern, using different models and methods to solve the problem at hand. I have worked on a wide range of different diseases, including
- Yellow fever
- MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome)
- Pandemic flu
- Avian Flu
VACCINE IMPACT MODELLING CONSORTIUM
I lead the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, an initiative that aims to quantify the global impact of established childhood vaccines including Hib, Hepatitis B, HPV, Japanese Encephalitis, Measles, Meningitis A, streptococcus pneumonia, Rotavirus, Rubella and Yellow Fever. We do this through a coordinated collaboration of over a dozen independent modelling groups contributing disease-specific estimates. Our are used by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and by the Gates Foundation for assessing the impact of their investments into vaccination, for informing further investments and for fundraising and communication purposes. My research group specifically contributes estimates on Yellow Fever vaccine impact to this endeavour, while the core team based at Imperial College pulls the estimates from individual groups together.
I have experience in real-time outbreak analysis from the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic (2009), the MERS outbreak (2014), the West African Ebola outbreak (2014 - 2016) and the Yellow Fever outbreak in Angola (2016). In fact, alongside a good dozen other researchers at Imperial College, I am member of the WHO Ebola Response Team, and we have contributed to situational awareness and informed outbreak response through over 70 reports sent to WHO and partners which are based on rigorous data analysis in real time.
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
I am interested in the influence of climatic and environmental factors on disease transmission. These factors strongly affect the dynamics of vector borne diseases due to the dependence of the vectors on climate. I have worked on Malaria and Yellow Fever and am collaborating with the WHO and the Gavi on estimating the disease burden of Yellow Fever and the impact of vaccination across Africa – the first such estimates in 20 years, with much richer spatial structure than the previous estimates and a rigorous assessment of the inherent uncertainty.
Montagu, a platform to generate, store and report on vaccine impact estimates.
Dr Zulma Cucunubá (Research fellow) , core scientific team of the VIMC.
Dr Katy Gaythorpe (Research Associate), on evaluating the Yellow Fever disease burden and impact of vaccination of in Africa.
Dr Nicholas Letchford (Research Associate), core scientific team of the VIMC.
Dr Xiang Li (Research Associtate), core scientific team of the VIMC.
FORMER GROUP MEMBERS
Dr Kévin Jean (Visiting Lecturer)
et al., 2018, Environmental suitability for lymphatic filariasis in Nigeria, Parasites & Vectors, Vol:11, ISSN:1756-3305
Donnelly CA, Garske T, How deadly is Ebola?, Biomedical Science Journal for Teens
et al., 2018, Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April-May, 2018: an epidemiological study, Lancet, Vol:392, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:213-221
et al., 2018, The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa, Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol:12, ISSN:1935-2735
et al., 2018, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence, Epidemics, Vol:22, ISSN:1755-4365, Pages:29-35