My work focuses on understanding infectious disease dynamics through mathematical and statistical modelling as well as outbreak analysis. I have experience in real time outbreak analysis and am interested in vector borne diseases, in particular the influence of climate on transmission dynamics.
Much of my work has policy implications and is driven by the need to answer key questions of public health concern, using different models and methods to solve the problem at hand. I have worked on a wide range of different diseases, including
- Yellow fever
- MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome)
- Pandemic flu
- Avian Flu
I have experience in real-time outbreak analysis from the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic (2009), the MERS outbreak (2014), the West African Ebola outbreak (2014 - 2016) and the Yellow Fever outbreak in Angola (2016). In fact, alongside a good dozen other researchers at Imperial College, I am member of the WHO Ebola Response Team, and we have contributed to situational awareness and informed outbreak response through over 70 reports sent to WHO and partners which are based on rigorous data analysis in real time.
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
I am interested in the influence of climatic and environmental factors on disease transmission. These factors strongly affect the dynamics of vector borne diseases due to the dependence of the vectors on climate. I have worked on Malaria and Yellow Fever and am collaborating with the WHO and the GAVI Alliance on estimating the disease burden of Yellow Fever and the impact of vaccination across Africa – the first such estimates in 20 years, with much richer spatial structure than the previous estimates and a rigorous assessment of the inherent uncertainty. I am PI on a grant from the BMGF funding a post-doc to perform model refinement and update the vaccine impact estimates which are used by GAVI in their vaccine investment strategy.
GROUP MEMBERS (FORMER AND CURRENT)
Dr Kévin Jean (Visiting Lecturer) on estimating the burden of yellow fever across Africa, in particular evaluating the effect of herd immunity on burden and vaccine impact estimates.
Mr Arran Hamlet (Research Assistant) on the impact of climate on intensity and seasonality of yellow fever transmission.
et al., Economic impact of vaccination against 10 vaccine‐preventable diseases across 73 low‐ and middle‐income countries supported by Gavi, 2001‐2020, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, ISSN:1564-0604
et al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-biological Sciences, Vol:372, ISSN:0962-8436
et al., 2017, International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017, Eurosurveillance, Vol:22, ISSN:1560-7917, Pages:10-13
et al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013-2016, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-biological Sciences, Vol:372, ISSN:0962-8436
et al., 2017, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence., Epidemics