Imperial College London
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ProfessorTimothyHallett

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Global Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1150timothy.hallett

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@techreport{Forchini:2020:10.25561/79984,
author = {Forchini, G and Lochen, A and Hallett, T and Aylin, P and White, P and Donnelly, C and Ghani, A and Ferguson, N and Hauck, K},
doi = {10.25561/79984},
title = {Report 28: Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/79984},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - RPRT
AB  - There were 189,403 deaths from any cause reported in England from 29th February to 5th June 2020 inclusive, and 11,278 all-cause deaths in Wales over the same period. Of those deaths, 44,736 (23.6%) registered COVID-19 on the death certificate in England, and 2,294 (20.3%) in Wales, while 144,667 (76.4%) were not recorded as having been due to COVID-19 in England, and 8,984 (79.7%) in Wales. However, it could be that some of the ‘non-COVID-19’ deaths have in fact also been caused by COVID-19, either as the direct cause of death, or indirectly through provisions for the pandemic impeding access to care for other conditions. There is uncertainty in how many of the non-COVID-19 deaths were directly or indirectly caused by the pandemic. We estimated the excess deaths that were not recorded as associated with COVID-19 in the death certificate (excess non-COVID-19 deaths) as the deaths for which COVID-19 was not reported as the cause, compared to those we would have expected to occur had the pandemic not happened. Expected deaths were forecast with an analysis of historic trends in deaths between 2010 and April 2020 using data by the Office of National Statistics and a statistical time series model. According to the model, we expected 136,294 (95% CI 133,882 - 138,696) deaths in England, and 8,983 (CI 8,051 - 9,904) in Wales over this period, significantly fewer than the number of deaths reported. This means that there were 8,983 (95% CI 5,971 - 10,785) total excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England. For every 100 COVID-19 deaths during the period from 29th February to 5th June 2020 there were between 13 and 24 cumulative excess non-COVID-19 deaths. The proportion of cumulative excess non-COVID-19 deaths of all reported deaths during this period was 4.4% (95% CI 3.2% - 5.7%) in England, with small regional variations. Excess deaths were highest in the South East at 2,213 (95% CI 327 - 4,047) and in London at 1,937 (95% CI 896 - 3,010), respectively. There is no e
AU  - Forchini,G
AU  - Lochen,A
AU  - Hallett,T
AU  - Aylin,P
AU  - White,P
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Hauck,K
DO  - 10.25561/79984
PY  - 2020///
TI  - Report 28: Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/79984
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-06-18-COVID19-Report-28.pdf
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/79984
ER  -
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