Imperial College London
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ProfessorTimothyHallett

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Global Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1150timothy.hallett

 
 
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Location

 

School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hui:2021:10.2471/BLT.19.248146,
author = {Hui, Z and Nayagam, S and Chan, P and Fuzhen, W and Thursz, M and Zundong, Y and Ning, M and Xiaojin, S and Cui, F and Guomin, Z and Hallett, TB},
doi = {10.2471/BLT.19.248146},
journal = {Bulletin of the World Health Organization},
pages = {10--18},
title = {Progress towards elimination of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus infection in China: a modelling analysis.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.19.248146},
volume = {99},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Objective: To determine the projected burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in China, the intervention strategies that can eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) by 2030 or earlier and the measurable parameters that can be used to monitor progress towards this target. Methods: We developed a dynamic, sex- and age-stratified model of the HBV epidemic in China, calibrated using hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence data from sequential national serosurveys (1979-2014) and the numbers of HBV-related cancer deaths (2012). We determined whether China can achieve elimination of MTCT of HBV by 2030 under current prevention interventions. We modelled various intervention scenarios to represent different coverage levels of birth-dose HBV vaccination, hepatitis B immunoglobulin to newborns of HBsAg-positive mothers and antiviral therapy (tenofovir) to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. Findings: We project that, if current levels of prevention interventions are maintained, China will achieve the elimination target by 2029. By modelling various intervention scenarios, we found that this can be brought forward to 2025 by increasing coverage of birth-dose vaccination, or to 2024 by the administration of tenofovir to HBeAg-positive pregnant women. We found that achievement of the target by 2025 would be predicted by a measurement of less than 2% MTCT in 2020. Conclusion: Our results highlight how high-quality national data can be combined with modelling in monitoring the elimination of MTCT of HBV. By demonstrating the impact of increased interventions on target achievement dates, we anticipate that other high-burden countries will be motivated to strengthen HBV prevention policies.
AU  - Hui,Z
AU  - Nayagam,S
AU  - Chan,P
AU  - Fuzhen,W
AU  - Thursz,M
AU  - Zundong,Y
AU  - Ning,M
AU  - Xiaojin,S
AU  - Cui,F
AU  - Guomin,Z
AU  - Hallett,TB
DO  - 10.2471/BLT.19.248146
EP  - 18
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0042-9686
SP  - 10
TI  - Progress towards elimination of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus infection in China: a modelling analysis.
T2  - Bulletin of the World Health Organization
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.19.248146
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33658732
UR  - https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/99/1/19-248146/en/
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/87028
VL  - 99
ER  -
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