Modelling infrastructure interdependency and analysing cascading failure
Resilient infrastructure systems are able to maintain their function even when adversely affected by acute shocks (e.g. natural disasters) and chronic stresses (e.g. congestion). The resilience of critical infrastructure systems can be enhanced by improving their capacity to resist, recover and adapt. Through quantitative modelling, our research improves the theoretical understanding of complex mechanisms that determine the resilience of infrastructure networks. A particular research interest is the interaction of different infrastructure networks. Especially in dense urban environments, interdependency phenomena are affecting both failure and recovery processes. For example, the failure of power supply can have knock-on effects in a number of other infrastructure sectors, such as the metro system or communication networks. On the other hand, the efficient coordination and logistics of recovery processes require basic infrastructure services, such as communication and transport. In our research we use a multi-level approach to model interdependent urban infrastructure networks and simulate their behaviour after disruptive events. An integrative modelling architecture is developed that combines different methods, including infrastructure inoperability input output modelling, network flow analysis and Bayesian network methods.