In early March 2020 it seemed that the Covid-19 virus in the UK was spreading exponentially; the fatality rate was unknown and the ability of the NHS to deal with rapidly rising numbers of seriously ill people was unclear.
Estimates made at that time by Professor Neil Ferguson’s team at Imperial College London put the possible level of UK deaths if there was no change in behaviour at 500,000. Based on that and other assessments, the government followed the example of other European countries in introducing severe restrictions on individual movement. The key message was to stay at home; this was a blanket lockdown.
Was the length of this lockdown warranted and should restrictions now be eased significantly?
In recent research, undertaken with medical
