Publications

The following publications are currently available for download:

 

  • David McCarthy, James Sefton, Ron Lee and Joze Sambt (2017)
    Generational wealth accounts.pdf

  • We compile a set of GWAs for the UK in 2012. Older generations appear to consume far less than the aggregate value of resources available to them, giving rise to significant bequests to younger generations. Younger generations will need to rely on these bequests in addition to inter vivos transfers to sustain their consumption paths. We confirm previous findings that the public sector is on an unsustainable deficit path, but we show that the private sector is in surplus, and that the sum of bequests and inter vivos transfers to the unborn more than offsets the public sector deficit. This suggests that, overall, future generations are, in fact, being treated equitably. We estimate that around 40% of UK aggregate wealth is held to finance future consumption, taxes and inter vivos transfers, with the remainder financing bequests.

 

 

  • David McCarthy & James Sefton (2011)
    First Estimate of UK National Transfer Accounts.pdf

  • Europe is ageing rapidly; population projections indicate that the old-age dependency ratio will more than double in Europe between now and 2050. A crucial question is how sustainable the economic institutions which mediate age-related flows in our economies – these are the public sector, the family, and capital markets – are in the face of this population ageing. This paper briefly reviews the concept of National Transfer Accounts (NTA’s), which attempt to quantify these economic flows in a manner consistent with National Accounts, presents first estimates of NTA’s for the UK in 2007, and provides a short comparison of UK age-related economic flows across some European and other NTA countries. Some applications of NTA’s will also be briefly discussed.

 

 

  • David McCarthy, James Sefton, & Martin Weale (2010)
    Generational Accounts for the United Kingdom.pdf

  • Generational accounts show the net discounted life-time contribution, positive or negative, that people, as a function of their age, are expected to make to the Exchequer. Receipts include both welfare benefits and public consumption (allocated by age as far as possible) while payments are largely comprised of taxes.
    The framework of generational accounts makes it possible to estimate not only the generational imbalances described above, but also the tax changes needed. We distinguish the intergenerational balance gap from the intertemporal budget gap. The former assumes that current and future new-borns are all treated in the same way and calculates the tax change needed for this. The latter is the tax change needed for solvency without any requirement that all future generations should be treated in the same way.