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Journal articleMartin Frias A, Shapiro ML, Engberg Z, et al., 2024,
Feasibility of contrail avoidance in a commercial flight planning system: an operational analysis
, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability, Vol: 4Aircraft condensation trails, also known as contrails, contribute a substantial portion of aviation’s overall climate footprint. Contrail impacts can be reduced through smart flight planning that avoids contrail-forming regions of the atmosphere. While previous studies have explored the operational impacts of contrail avoidance in simulated environments, this paper aims to characterize the feasibility and cost of contrail avoidance precisely within a commercial flight planning system. This study leverages the commercial Flightkeys 5D algorithm, developed by Flightkeys GmbH, with a prototypical contrail forecast model based on the Contrail Cirrus Prediction (CoCiP) model to simulate contrail avoidance on 49 411 flights during the first two weeks of June 2023, and 35 429 flights during the first two weeks of January 2024. The utilization of a commercial flight planning system enables high-accuracy estimates of additional cost and fuel investments by operators to achieve estimated reductions in contrail-energy forcing and overall flight global warming potential. The results show that navigational contrail avoidance will require minimal additional cost (0.08%) and fuel (0.11%) investments to achieve notable reductions in contrail climate forcing (−73.0%). This simulation provides evidence that contrail mitigation entails very low operational risks, even regarding fuel. This study aims to serve as an incentive for operators and air traffic controllers to initiate contrail mitigation testing as soon as possible and begin reducing aviation’s non- CO 2 emissions.
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ReportJennings N, Paterson P, Whitmarsh L, et al., 2024,
What do the UK public think about the co-benefits that climate action can bring?
This slide deck summarises findings from a nationally representative sample (on the basis of age, gender and ethnicity) of 1,021 people who were asked to share their opinions about the co-benefits of climate action. People were surveyed via the online survey platform Prolific on Monday 12th February 2024. The headline findings and recommendations are followed by a case study focused on homes that are more affordable to heat. The insights in this slide deck build on findings from a Grantham report published in October 2023, How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action? which included survey and focus groups with members of the UK public.
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Journal articleKuhlbrodt T, Swaminathan R, Ceppi P, et al., 2024,
A Glimpse into the Future The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change
, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol: 105, Pages: E474-E485, ISSN: 0003-0007In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in low sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean, outside the 4σ envelope of the 1982–2011 daily time series. Earth’s net global energy imbalance (12 months up to September 2023) amounts to +1.9 W m−2 as part of a remarkably large upward trend, ensuring further heating of the ocean. However, the regional radiation budget over the North Atlantic does not show signs of a suggested significant step increase from less negative aerosol forcing since 2020. While the temperature in the top 100 m of the global ocean has been rising in all basins since about 1980, specifically the Atlantic basin has continued to further heat up since 2016, potentially contributing to the extreme SST. Similarly, salinity in the top 100 m of the ocean has increased in recent years specifically in the Atlantic basin, and in addition in about 2015 a substantial negative trend for sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean began. Analyzing climate and Earth system model simulations of the future, we find that the extreme SST in the North Atlantic and the extreme in Southern Ocean sea ice extent in 2023 lie at the fringe of the expected mean climate change for a global surface-air temperature warming level (GWL) of 1.5°C, and closer to the average at a 3.0°C GWL. Understanding the regional and global drivers of these extremes is indispensable for assessing frequency and impacts of similar events in the coming years.
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Journal articleFuertes E, Jarvis D, Lam H, et al., 2024,
Phl p 5 levels more strongly associated than grass pollen counts with allergic respiratory health
, Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Vol: 153, Pages: 844-851, ISSN: 0091-6749Background:Studies have linked daily pollen counts to respiratory allergic health outcomes but few have considered allergen levels.Objective:This study assessed associations of grass pollen counts and allergen levels (Phl p 5) with 1) respiratory allergic health symptoms in a panel of 93 adults with moderate-severe allergic rhinitis and 2) daily asthma hospital admissions in London, UK.Methods:Daily symptom and medication scores were collected from adult participants in an allergy clinical trial. Daily counts of asthma hospital admissions in the London general population were obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics data. Daily grass pollen counts were measured using a volumetric air sampler, and novel Phl p 5 levels, using a Chemvol high-volume cascade impactor and ELISA analyses (May-August). Associations between the two pollen variables and daily health scores (dichotomized based on within-person 75th percentiles) were assessed using generalized estimating equation logistic models, and with asthma hospital admissions using Poisson regression models.Results:Daily pollen counts and Phl p 5 levels were each positively associated with reporting a high combined symptom and medication health score in separate models. However, in mutually adjusted models including terms for both pollen counts and Phl p 5 levels, associations remained for Phl p 5 levels (odds ratio [95% confidence intervals]: 1.18 [1.12, 1.24]) but were heavily attenuated for pollen counts (1.00 [0.93, 1.07]). Similar trends were not observed for asthma hospital admissions in London.Conclusion:Grass allergen (Phl p 5) levels are more consistently associated with allergic respiratory symptoms than grass pollen counts.
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Journal articleLiu X, Lara R, Dufresne M, et al., 2024,
Variability of ambient air ammonia in urban Europe (Finland, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK)
, Environment International, Vol: 185, ISSN: 0160-4120This study addressed the scarcity of NH3 measurements in urban Europe and the diverse monitoring protocols, hindering direct data comparison. Sixty-nine datasets from Finland, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK across various site types, including industrial (IND, 8), traffic (TR, 12), urban (UB, 22), suburban (SUB, 12), and regional background (RB, 15), are analyzed to this study. Among these, 26 sites provided 5, or more, years of data for time series analysis. Despite varied protocols, necessitating future harmonization, the average NH3 concentration across sites reached 8.0 ± 8.9 μg/m3. Excluding farming/agricultural hotspots (FAHs), IND and TR sites had the highest concentrations (4.7 ± 3.2 and 4.5 ± 1.0 μg/m3), followed by UB, SUB, and RB sites (3.3 ± 1.5, 2.7 ± 1.3, and 1.0 ± 0.3 μg/m3, respectively) indicating that industrial, traffic, and other urban sources were primary contributors to NH3 outside FAH regions. When referring exclusively to the FAHs, concentrations ranged from 10.0 ± 2.3 to 15.6 ± 17.2 μg/m3, with the highest concentrations being reached in RB sites close to the farming and agricultural sources, and that, on average for FAHs there is a decreasing NH3 concentration gradient towards the city. Time trends showed that over half of the sites (18/26) observed statistically significant trends. Approximately 50 % of UB and TR sites showed a decreasing trend, while 30 % an increasing one. Meta-analysis revealed a small insignificant decreasing trend for non-FAH RB sites. In FAHs, there was a significant upward trend at a rate of 3.51[0.45,6.57]%/yr. Seasonal patterns of NH3 concentrations varied, with urban areas experiencing fluctuations influenced by surrounding emissions, particularly in FAHs. Diel variation showed differing patterns at urban monitoring sites, all with high
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Journal articleBlackford K, Kasoar M, Burton C, et al., 2024,
INFERNO-peat v1.0.0: a representation of northern high latitude peat fires in the JULES-INFERNO global fire model
, Geoscientific Model Development, ISSN: 1991-959X -
OtherBorella A, Boucher O, Shine KP, et al., 2024,
Supplementary material to "The importance of an informed choice of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalence metrics for contrail avoidance"
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Journal articleMarschalek J, Thomson S, Hillenbrand C-D, et al., 2024,
Geological insights from the newly discovered granite of Sif island between Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers
, Antarctic Science, ISSN: 0954-1020Large-scale geological structures have controlled the long-term development of the bed and thus the flow of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). However, complete ice cover has obscured the age and exact positions of faults and geological boundaries beneath Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, two major WAIS outlets in the Amundsen Sea sector. Here, we characterise the only rock outcrop between these two glaciers, which was exposed by the retreat of slow-flowing coastal ice in the early 2010s to form the new “Sif Island”. The island comprises of granite, zircon U-Pb dated to ~177-174 Ma and characterised by initial εNd, 87Sr/86Sr and εHf isotope compositions of -2.3, 0.7061 and -1.3, respectively. These characteristics resemble Thurston Island/Antarctic Peninsula crustal block rocks, strongly suggesting that the Sif Island granite belongs to this province and placing the crustal block’s boundary with the Marie Byrd Land province under Thwaites Glacier or its eastern shear margin. Low temperature thermochronological data reveal that the granite underwent rapid cooling following emplacement, rapidly cooled again at ~100-90 Ma, and then remained close to the Earth’s surface until present. These data help date vertical displacement across the major tectonic structure beneath Pine Island Glacier to the Late Cretaceous.
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Journal articleWeinmayr G, Chen J, Jaensch A, et al., 2024,
Long-term exposure to several constituents and sources of PM2.5 is associated with incidence of upper aerodigestive tract cancers but not gastric cancer: Results from the large pooled European cohort of the ELAPSE project
, Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 912, ISSN: 0048-9697It is unclear whether cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) and gastric cancer are related to air pollution, due to few studies with inconsistent results. The effects of particulate matter (PM) may vary across locations due to different source contributions and related PM compositions, and it is not clear which PM constituents/sources are most relevant from a consideration of overall mass concentration alone. We therefore investigated the association of UADT and gastric cancers with PM2.5 elemental constituents and sources components indicative of different sources within a large multicentre population based epidemiological study. Cohorts with at least 10 cases per cohort led to ten and eight cohorts from five countries contributing to UADT- and gastric cancer analysis, respectively. Outcome ascertainment was based on cancer registry data or data of comparable quality. We assigned home address exposure to eight elemental constituents (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) estimated from Europe-wide exposure models, and five source components identified by absolute principal component analysis (APCA). Cox regression models were run with age as time scale, stratified for sex and cohort and adjusted for relevant individual and neighbourhood level confounders. We observed 1139 UADT and 872 gastric cancer cases during a mean follow-up of 18.3 and 18.5 years, respectively. UADT cancer incidence was associated with all constituents except K in single element analyses. After adjustment for NO2, only Ni and V remained associated with UADT. Residual oil combustion and traffic source components were associated with UADT cancer persisting in the multiple source model. No associations were found for any of the elements or source components and gastric cancer incidence. Our results indicate an association of several PM constituents indicative of different sources with UADT but not gastric cancer incidence with the most robust evidence for traffic and residual oil combust
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Working paperKoberle A, Holtedahl P, 2024,
Livestock intensification and the role of finance in the Food System Transformation in Brazil
, Publisher: Food Systems Economics CommissionThe potential for the Brazilian cattle sector to increase production while concurrently reducingpressure for land expansion is widely recognized. With mounting evidence that land use changeamplifies the impacts from global climate change, a transition to climate resilient and low-carbonagriculture becomes imperative and unavoidable. This analysis explores possible contributions ofthe Brazilian beef cattle sector can make to a Food System Transition (FST). The results of thisanalysis show a large potential to increase productivity and spare land for other uses, but severalsocioeconomic and political economy challenges will need to be overcome, such as increasingaccess to finance and technical assistance as well as a tightening of environmental governanceacross the country. Adopting intensification practices can increase farm profitability and havepayback periods of months to a couple of years but require up-front investments that posechallenges for farmers with low access to finance. While results indicate that realizing the landsparing potential of the cattle sector is not free from macroeconomic frictions, there are alsosocioeconomic opportunities for the country in a global FST trajectory. However, capturing theopportunities will require well-designed policies that can link multiple objectives and maximize thesynergies across the environmental, health, and inclusion domains.
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