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Journal articleNielsen PY, Jensen MK, Mitarai N, et al., 2024,
The Gompertz Law emerges naturally from the inter-dependencies between sub-components in complex organisms.
, Sci Rep, Vol: 14Understanding and facilitating healthy aging has become a major goal in medical research and it is becoming increasingly acknowledged that there is a need for understanding the aging phenotype as a whole rather than focusing on individual factors. Here, we provide a universal explanation for the emergence of Gompertzian mortality patterns using a systems approach to describe aging in complex organisms that consist of many inter-dependent subsystems. Our model relates to the Sufficient-Component Cause Model, widely used within the field of epidemiology, and we show that including inter-dependencies between subsystems and modeling the temporal evolution of subsystem failure results in Gompertizan mortality on the population level. Our model also provides temporal trajectories of mortality-risk for the individual. These results may give insight into understanding how biological age evolves stochastically within the individual, and how this in turn leads to a natural heterogeneity of biological age in a population.
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Journal articleWhitmee S, Green R, Belesova K, et al., 2024,
Pathways to a healthy net-zero future: report of the Lancet Pathfinder Commission.
, Lancet, Vol: 403, Pages: 67-110 -
Journal articleDesouza C, Marsh D, Beevers S, et al., 2024,
Emissions from the construction sector in the United Kingdom
, Emission Control Science and Technology, ISSN: 2199-3637The UK national atmospheric emissions inventory estimates of construction industry emissions use a top-down approach, based on fuel consumption and employment. It estimates that the sector is the 2nd largest emitter of PM2.5 (14%) and 4th largest emitter of NOX (7%). In this study, we have adopted a bottom-up approach to assess emissions of NOX from the sector and show that emissions are 39% higher than the existing estimates. By developing a novel fleet turnover model to predict the population and emission standard of construction machinery up to 2025, we demonstrate a significant shift in the quantity and types of machines used. The overall uncertainty of the model was calculated to be 55%. Applying the estimated uncertainties to the model, in 2018, the non-road mobile machinery fleet in the UK emitted 36.6 ± 10.0 kilo-tonnes of NOX, whilst the NAEI estimated 33.2 kilo-tonnes for the same sector. For the subsequent years 2019 and 2020, the NAEI estimate was within the model’s uncertainty prediction—28.0 kilo-tonnes compared with 32.7 ± 8.9 kilo-tonnes for 2019 and 23.2 kilo-tonnes compared with 29.5 ± 8.1 kilo-tonnes for 2020. Overall, the size of the non-road mobile machinery fleet in the UK is predicted to reduce by 4% in 2025 compared to 2018. Furthermore, the introduction of Stages IV and V emission regulations for new machines will lead to a 58% reduction in fleet NOX emissions over the same period. These emission regulations are targeted at the larger, more polluting machines, with smaller machines not required to meet tighter emissions standards under Stage V. As a result, mini-excavators are the most common machines and consequently become the dominant source of NOX emissions from the fleet, contributing 55% in 2025. Therefore, tighter emissions regulations, or the uptake of battery power in the form of electrification, for these small machines would yield significant emissions redu
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Journal articleShi J, Feng X, Toumi R, et al., 2024,
Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves.
, Nat Commun, Vol: 15The long-term changes of ocean surface waves associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are poorly observed and understood. Here, we present the global trend analysis of TC waves for 1979-2022 based on the ERA5 wave reanalysis. The maximum height and the area of the TC wave footprint in the six h reanalysis have increased globally by about 3%/decade and 6%/decade, respectively. The TC wave energy transferred at the interface from the atmosphere to the ocean has increased globally by about 9%/decade, which is three times larger than that reported for all waves. The global energy changes are mostly driven by the growing area of the wave footprint. Our study shows that the TC-associated wave hazard has increased significantly and these changes are larger than those of the TC maximum wind speed. This suggests that the wave hazard should be a concern in the future.
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Journal articleJagtap SS, Childs PRN, Stettler MEJ, 2024,
Performance sensitivity of subsonic liquid hydrogen long-range tube-wing aircraft to technology developments
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 50, Pages: 820-833, ISSN: 0360-3199Liquid hydrogen (LH2) may enable the decarbonisation of long-haul aviation. However, its low volumetric energy density and subsequent tank space and weight requirements could penalise an aircraft's specific energy consumption (SEC, MJ/tonne-km). We evaluate the impacts of developments in four technology areas – aerodynamics, structures, cryo-tank gravimetric index (η), and overall efficiency (ηo) – on the design-point performance of a large subsonic tube-wing LH2 aircraft. We characterise the critical value of η, which must be exceeded to enable a given design range. For a design range of 14,000 km, η must exceed 0.52 today but only 0.35 with expected 2030 airframe and engine efficiency improvements. Using the most optimistic technology development estimates we observe that SEC could reduce by ∼25% via improvements in ηo and aerodynamics and by 33% via improvements in all four areas. Developments in technologies to improve ηo and reduce drag are critical to enabling zero-carbon long-haul air travel.
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Journal articleTsui EYL, Chan PW, Toumi R, 2024,
Boundary layer profile of decaying and non-decaying tropical storms near landfall
, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1530-261XThe vertical profile of the wind structure of translating tropical cyclones, including the associated azimuthal asymmetry, has been the subject of existing theoretical and observational studies using dropsondes. Most of these studies are based on data collected from relatively strong cyclones over the Atlantic. Here we explore the tropical cyclone boundary layer wind profile of mainly relatively weak landfalling cyclones near Hong Kong. We find that decaying tropical storms have a much larger mid- to low-level inflow angle than those that are intensifying or in steady-state. The inflow angles of intensifying, steady-state and decaying tropical storms converge towards the top of the boundary layer. The wind speed reduces through the boundary layer in a similar way in all three cases. The combination of these factors means that decaying tropical storms have stronger inflow than intensifying and steady-state ones. We attribute these local effects to remote enhanced surface friction over land when the storms are weakening.
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Journal articleRashid T, Bennett JE, Muller DC, et al., 2024,
Mortality from leading cancers in districts of England from 2002 to 2019: a population-based, spatiotemporal study
, The Lancet Oncology, Vol: 25, Pages: 86-98, ISSN: 1213-9432BACKGROUND: Cancers are the leading cause of death in England. We aimed to estimate trends in mortality from leading cancers from 2002 to 2019 for the 314 districts in England. METHODS: We did a high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of vital registration data from the UK Office for National Statistics using data on all deaths from the ten leading cancers in England from 2002 to 2019. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to obtain robust estimates of age-specific and cause-specific death rates. We used life table methods to calculate the primary outcome, the unconditional probability of dying between birth and age 80 years by sex, cancer cause of death, local district, and year. We reported Spearman rank correlations between the probability of dying from a cancer and district-level poverty in 2019. FINDINGS: In 2019, the probability of dying from a cancer before age 80 years ranged from 0·10 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0·10-0·11) to 0·17 (0·16-0·18) for women and from 0·12 (0·12-0·13) to 0·22 (0·21-0·23) for men. Variation in the probability of dying was largest for lung cancer among women, being 3·7 times (95% CrI 3·2-4·4) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the district with the lowest probability; and for stomach cancer for men, being 3·2 times (2·6-4·1) higher in the district with the highest probability than in the one with the lowest probability. The variation in the probability of dying was smallest across districts for lymphoma and multiple myeloma (95% CrI 1·2 times [1·1-1·4] higher in the district with the highest probability than the lowest probability for women and 1·2 times [1·0-1·4] for men), and leukaemia (1·1 times [1·0-1·4] for women and 1·2 times [1·0-1·5] for men). The Spearman rank correlation between probability
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Journal articleCallaghan A, Deane G, Stokes D, 2024,
A comparison of laboratory and field measurements of whitecap foam evolution from breaking waves
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol: 129, ISSN: 2169-9275Sufficiently energetic breaking ocean waves produce distinctive visible foam signatures on the water surface called whitecaps. The mixture of surface whitecap foam cells, and sub-surface bubbles, results in the broad-band scattering of light that allow whitecaps to be measured with optical cameras. In this paper the temporal evolution of whitecap foam area from laboratory and oceanic breaking waves is compared. When appropriately scaled, the foam area time series for both laboratory and oceanic breaking waves follow similar trends, despite occurring in vastly different settings. Distinct similarities of the signature of foam stabilization due to the presence of surfactants in the controlled laboratory experiments are also found in the field suggesting foam stabilization may be a means to remotely sense the presence/absence or concentration of surfactants in the ocean. In addition, probability density distributions of key whitecap variables such as foam area growth and decay timescales and maximum foam area are compared between laboratory and oceanic whitecaps. The oceanic whitecaps are much larger in scale than the laboratory breaking waves, whereas the whitecap growth and decay timescales are similar in magnitude, the latter suggesting that the depths to which bubbles are injected during active air entrainment in the field are relatively shallow. The aggregated whitecap statistics are used to estimate the energy dissipation of individual whitecaps in a novel manner.
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BookZimmerman RW, Paluszny A, 2024,
Fluid Flow in Fractured Rocks
, ISBN: 9781119248019“The definitive treatise on the subject for many years to come” (Prof. Ruben Juanes, MIT) Authoritative textbook that provides a comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to fluid flow in fractured rocks Fluid Flow in Fractured Rocks provides an authoritative introduction to the topic of fluid flow through single rock fractures and fractured rock masses. This book is intended for readers with interests in hydrogeology, hydrology, water resources, structural geology, reservoir engineering, underground waste disposal, or other fields that involve the flow of fluids through fractured rock masses. Classical and established models and data are presented and carefully explained, and recent computational methodologies and results are also covered. Each chapter includes numerous graphs, schematic diagrams and field photographs, an extensive reference list, and a set of problems, thus providing a comprehensive learning experience that is both mathematically rigorous and accessible. Written by two internationally recognized leaders in the field, Fluid Flow in Fractured Rocks includes information on: Nucleation and growth of fractures in rock, with a multiscale characterization of their geometric traits Effect of normal and shear stresses on the transmissivity of a rock fracture and mathematics of fluid flow through a single rock fracture Solute transport in rocks, with quantitative descriptions of advection, molecular diffusion, and dispersion Fluid Flow in Fractured Rocks is an essential resource for researchers and postgraduate students who are interested in the field of fluid flow through fractured rocks. The text is also highly suitable for professionals working in civil, environmental, and petroleum engineering.
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Journal articleYusoff HHM, Johnson HD, Lonergan L, et al., 2024,
Seismic stratigraphy of Late Pleistocene incised valleys and adjacent environments, eastern Central Luconia Province, offshore north-west Borneo
, Sedimentology, Vol: 71, Pages: 319-354, ISSN: 0037-0746Incised valleys are commonly investigated based on outcrop, modern setting and seismic data, which are often limited by data availability, especially for broad (ca >100 km wide) shelf settings. Consequently, few have described complete depositional systems of the incised valleys, especially those linked to their corresponding modern rivers in a source-to-sink framework to determine comprehensive controlling factors. This study documents Late Quaternary incised valleys and their characteristics in the Balingian – Central Luconia shelf based on regionally-extensive three-dimensional seismic data, two-dimensional high-resolution seismic data and boreholes. The three-dimensional seismic data show that the main Tatau incised valley and tributary Suai incised valley fed the Tatau–Suai shelf-edge delta. The Tatau incised valley is interpreted as the main incised valley based on its broader width, thicker infill, two-tier stratigraphic architecture and its larger drainage basin area compared to the tributary Suai incised valley. The Tatau incised valley shifted its direction towards an active tectonic lineament (West Baram Line) and bypassed sediments to the deep-water via a series of upper slope channels. The Tatau incised valley system comprises the following elements: (i) an upstream segment characterized by rivers dissecting an uplifted hinterland comprising Neogene sedimentary rocks, humid-tropical vegetation, monsoonal climate, extremely high river discharge and sediment supply; (ii) a midstream segment comprising an emergent, vegetated (tropical rainforest to mangroves) and relatively narrow (ca 150 to 200 km wide) shelf, which was characterized by basinward-increasing, tectonically-driven accommodation space, valley incision and deposition; (iii) a downstream segment with increasing tidal-influence where the Tatau and its tributary valley merged; and (iv) a short (15 to 20 km), narrow (10 to 15 km), tectonically-controlled
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