@article{Clare:2022:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104118,
author = {Clare, MCA and Piggott, MD and Cotter, CJ},
doi = {10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104118},
journal = {Coastal Engineering},
title = {Assessing erosion and flood risk in the coastal zone through the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104118},
volume = {174},
year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Coastal zones are vulnerable to both erosion and flood risk, which can be assessed using coupled hydro-morphodynamic models. However, the use of such models as decision support tools suffers from a high degreeof uncertainty, due to both incomplete knowledge and natural variability in the system. In this work, we showfor the first time how the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) can be applied in hydro-morphodynamiccoastal ocean modelling, here using the popular model XBeach, to quantify uncertainty by computing statisticsof key output variables given uncertain input parameters. MLMC accelerates the Monte Carlo approach throughthe use of a hierarchy of models with different levels of resolution. Several theoretical and real-world coastalzone case studies are considered here, for which output variables that are key to the assessment of flood anderosion risk, such as wave run-up height and total eroded volume, are estimated. We show that MLMC cansignificantly reduce computational cost, resulting in speed up factors of 40 or greater compared to a standardMonte Carlo approach, whilst keeping the same level of accuracy. Furthermore, a sophisticated ensemblegenerating technique is used to estimate the cumulative distribution of output variables from the MLMC output.This allows for the probability of a variable exceeding a certain value to be estimated, such as the probabilityof a wave run-up height exceeding the height of a seawall. This is a valuable capability that can be used toinform decision-making under uncertainty
AU  - Clare,MCA
AU  - Piggott,MD
AU  - Cotter,CJ
DO  - 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104118
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 0378-3839
TI  - Assessing erosion and flood risk in the coastal zone through the application of multilevel Monte Carlo methods
T2  - Coastal Engineering
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2022.104118
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383922000357?via%3Dihub
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/96614
VL  - 174
ER  - 

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