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DTSTAMP:20260510T222850Z
SUMMARY:Biomathematics Seminar – Sergei Petrovskii
DESCRIPTION:Towards a Unifying Theory of Mass Extinctions: Relating Rates o
 f Global Climate Change and Evolutionary Adaptation\nSergei Petrovskii\nSc
 hool of Computing and Mathematical Sciences\nUniversity of Leicester\, Lei
 cester\, LE1 7RH\, UK\n\nSpecies get extinct all the time with a certain b
 ackground extinction rate\; this is a normal course of macroevolution. How
 ever\, several times through the 540 Ma of the recorded history of life on
  Earth\, the extinction rates exceeded the average background rate by more
  than an order of magnitude\, resulting in 50-90% loss in the global biodi
 versity. Apart from the “Big Five”\, there were many smaller mass exti
 nctions with the global biodiversity loss ranging between 10-50%. Mass ext
 inctions came into the focus of scientific community in early 1980s and si
 gnificant progress has been made over the last few decades. However\, give
 n the inherent deficiency of the fossil data\, statistical analysis alone 
 (which is the main research tool used in paleontology) does not always all
 ow to distinguish between the effect of different processes\, which hamper
 s further progress. Process-based mathematical models are needed.\nIn my t
 alk\, I introduce a novel modelling approach that counterpoise the effect 
 of a fast climate change on the population dynamics with species evolution
 ary response. Different variants of the model may or may not also take int
 o account species’ active feedback on the global energy balance and/or t
 he dependence of population growth rate on the ambient temperature\, which
  is a generic property of many plant and animal species. The model shows t
 hat species extinction or survival following a climate change depends on a
  subtle interplay between the magnitude of the climate change and the rate
  of species’s adaptive evolution. The model predicts a distribution of e
 xtinction frequencies which is generally consistent with the fossil data. 
 Our study therefore suggests that mass extinctions in the Earth history oc
 curred due to r-tipping on the global scale.
URL:https://www.imperial.ac.uk/events/209367/biomathematics-seminar-sergei-
 petrovskii/
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260511T130000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260511T140000
LOCATION:Hulxey 130\, Huxley Building\, South Kensington Campus\, Imperial 
 College London\, London\, SW7 2AZ\, United Kingdom
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