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UID:667266970af51389b31764b160847e67
DTSTAMP:20261104T160114Z
SUMMARY:SPC Seminar – Climate – Andrew Chingos (St Andrews)
DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Andrew Chingos (St Andrews)\nTitle: Amplified decrease
 s in relative humidity over tropical land constrained by physical theory\n
 Abstract: Near-surface relative humidity is a fundamental metric of land c
 limate modulating temperature\, precipitation\, evapotranspiration\, wildf
 ires\, and heat stress in a warming world. The response of land relative h
 umidity to climate change is substantial but uncertain\, with models proje
 cting a wide range of future changes. Previous work showed that models fai
 l to reproduce observed historical decreases in land relative humidity\, r
 aising doubts about future projections. Here\, to constrain projections of
  land humidity in the tropics\, we derive a simple physical theory — gro
 unded in an ocean‐influence perspective on moisture over land — that l
 inks fractional changes in relative humidity to the land–ocean warming c
 ontrast. According to this theory\, stronger land warming leads to an incr
 ease in air’s water-holding capacity that outpaces moisture supplied fro
 m oceanic regions\, driving a decrease in relative humidity. The ocean‐i
 nfluence theory explains much of the spread across models in historical la
 nd relative humidity trends as well as the trend in reanalysis data. Combi
 ning the theory with estimates of the historical radiatively-forced land-o
 cean warming contrast\, we obtain constrained estimates of future tropical
  land relative humidity change (-7.1 %/K assuming a climate-invariant warm
 ing contrast\; -4.8 %/K when changes in warming contrast across climate st
 ates are accounted for). The constrained estimates suggest systematically 
 stronger decreases in tropical relative humidity compared to the unconstra
 ined multi-model median change (-1.5 %/K). This emergent constraint highli
 ghts a systematic underestimation of future land relative humidity decreas
 es by models and reveals its physical basis\, with important implications 
 for projecting the impacts of climate change in tropical regions.
URL:https://www.imperial.ac.uk/events/216233/spc-seminar-climate-andrew-chi
 ngos-st-andrews/
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20261110T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20261110T123000
LOCATION:711c\, Huxley Building\, South Kensington Campus\, Imperial Colleg
 e London\, London\, SW7 2AZ\, United Kingdom
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