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SUMMARY:STUOD Sandbox Workshop (Freddy Bouchet)
DESCRIPTION:The 34th meeting of the Sandbox Series will be on:\nRare event 
 simulations\, emulators and machine learning for predicting extreme heat w
 aves and extremes of renewable electricity production \n Freddy Bouchet1\
 , Bastien Cozian2\, Corentin Herbert2\, Amaury Lancelin2\, Alessandro Lovo
 2\, Valeria Mascolo2\, and Francesco Ragone2.  \n 1 ENS/PSL\, CNRS\, IPS
 L\, LMD\, Paris\, France \n2 ENS-Lyon\, LPENSL\, Lyon\, France.\nAbstract:
  In the climate system\, extreme events or transitions between climate at
 tractors are of primarily importance for understanding the impact of clima
 te change. Recent extreme heat waves with huge impact\, or period very low
  production of renewable energy in the electricity system are striking exa
 mples. However\, a key challenge is the lack of data\, because these event
 s are too rare and realistic models are too complex. \nI will discuss new 
 algorithms and theoretical approaches\, based on rare event simulations\, 
 emulators of climate models\, and machine learning for stochastic processe
 s\, which we have specifically designed for the prediction of the committo
 r function (the probability of the extreme event to occur). To illustrate 
 the performance of these tools\, I will discuss results for the study of m
 idlatitude extreme heat waves and the extremes of renewable energy product
 ion in relation with the resilience of the electricity system.\nReferences
 \n       [1]         V. Mascolo\, A. Lovo\, C. Herbert\, and
  F. Bouchet\, 2024\, Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather 
 Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events\, arXiv:2405.20903\, [pdf]\n   
     [2]         A. Lovo\, A. Lancelin\, C. Herbert\, and F. Bou
 chet\, 2024\, Tackling the Accuracy-Interpretability Trade-off in a Hierar
 chy of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of Extreme Heatwaves\, a
 rXiv:2410.00984\, [pdf].\n       [3]         F. Ragone\, J. 
 Wouters\, and F. Bouchet\, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
 \, vol 115\, no 1\, pages 24-29\, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1712645115\
 , and arXiv:1709.03757\, [pdf] (2018)\n       [4]         G.
  Miloshevich\, B. Cozian\, P. Abry\, P. Borgnat\, and F. Bouchet\, Phys. R
 ev. Fluids 8\, 040501\, doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevFluids.8.040501 and arXiv:2
 208.00971\, [pdf] (2023)\n       [5]         B. Cozian\, C. 
 Herbert\, and F. Bouchet\, 2023\, Assessing the Probability of Extremely L
 ow Wind Energy Production in Europe at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Time Scale
 s\, Environmental Research Letters\, 2024\, vol. 19\, no 4\, p. 044046\, a
 rXiv:2311.13526\, [pdf].\n       [6]         C. Le Priol\, J
 .M. Monteiro\, and F. Bouchet\, 2024\, Using rare event algorithms to unde
 rstand the statistics and dynamics of extreme heatwave seasons in South As
 ia Authors\, arXiv:2404.07791\, [pdf]\nSchedule\n1200-1245: Freddy Bouchet
 \n1245-1315: Discussion\n1315-1330: Break\n1330-1345: Mini-talk 1 – Paul
  Platzer\n1345-1400: Mini-talk 2 – Alex Lobbe\n1400-1430: Discussion & c
 lose
URL:https://www.imperial.ac.uk/events/186709/34th-stuod-sandbox-workshop/
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20250131T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20250131T143000
LOCATION:United Kingdom
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