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Book chapterSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Heat pumps
, ENERGY INNOVATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: ACCELERATING THE ENERGY REVOLUTION, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 179-213, ISBN: 978-1-78811-260-4- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 1
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Book chapterSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Energy innovation
, ENERGY INNOVATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: ACCELERATING THE ENERGY REVOLUTION, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 112-145, ISBN: 978-1-78811-260-4 -
Book chapterSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Building integrated photovoltaics
, ENERGY INNOVATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: ACCELERATING THE ENERGY REVOLUTION, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 282-321, ISBN: 978-1-78811-260-4 -
Book chapterSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Wave energy
, ENERGY INNOVATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: ACCELERATING THE ENERGY REVOLUTION, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 240-281, ISBN: 978-1-78811-260-4 -
Book chapterSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Lessons for effective energy innovation
, ENERGY INNOVATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: ACCELERATING THE ENERGY REVOLUTION, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 396-425, ISBN: 978-1-78811-260-4 -
Book chapterSkea J, van Diemen R, Hannon M, et al., 2019,
Energy Innovation for the Twenty-First Century Accelerating the Energy Revolution Introduction
, ENERGY INNOVATION FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: ACCELERATING THE ENERGY REVOLUTION, Publisher: EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHING LTD, Pages: 2-20, ISBN: 978-1-78811-260-4 -
Book chapterOluleye G, 2018,
Process integration applied to waste-to-energy production
, Waste to Energy Wte, Pages: 57-84Energy efficiency is a low-cost option for decarbonising energy systems. A form of energy recovery is waste-to-energy, especially where electricity and/or heat is generated from the primary treatment of waste. However, the energy efficiency of waste-to-energy production systems varies from 30-60% depending on the choice of technologies for heat and electricity provision. Recovery and re-use of wasted thermal energy in such systems has potential to increase their energy efficiency. The wasted thermal energy can be used directly, converted to electricity, used to provide chilling or upgraded to a higher temperature. This chapter aims to provide a holistic conceptual framework based on graphical techniques for improving the energy performance of waste-to-energy production systems through Process Integration.
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ReportSandys L, Hardy J, Rhodes A, et al., 2018,
Redesigning Regulation: Powering from the future
, Redesigning Regulation: Powering from the future, London, UKThe electricity sector is already going through unprecedented change, and new solutions to new challenges are ready to shape a transformed sector with new opportunities and new risks. The question is whether incremental change provided through issue specific changes, derogations or technology specific responses will unlock the new consumer and system advantages. Or should we recognise that the innovation in all parts of the system is totally transformative and changes the fundamentals of what the market is and what we need to regulate?Regulators and policy makers are currently sitting in the middle addressing the legacy concerns while looking hesitantly at the future. They have a choice – whether to try to squeeze the transformed system into the architecture of the past or to embark on a ‘managed’ revolution to embrace the new structure of the future of electricity.This report proposes regulatory actions needed to meet the challenges and opportunities of a transformed energy system – reimagining the market design, refocusing regulation, opening up consumer choice, and unlocking the power of supply-chain pressures while shaping a new ‘retailer’ market. In addition, it proposes much greater use of energy-system data, and a recalibration of security of supply to drive greater efficiencies and unlock demand reduction.
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Journal articleHattermann FF, Wortmann M, Liersch S, et al., 2018,
Simulation of flood hazard and risk in the Danube basin with the Future Danube Model
, Climate Services, Vol: 12, Pages: 14-26, ISSN: 2405-8807Major river and flash flood events have accumulated in Central and Eastern Europe over the last decade reminding the public as well as the insurance sector that climate related risks are likely to become even more damaging and prevalent as climate patterns change. However, information about current and future hydro-climatic extremes is often not available. The Future Danube Model (FDM) is an end-user driven multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region that has been developed to provide climate services related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heat waves, floods, and droughts under recent and scenario conditions. As a result, it provides spatially consistent information on extreme events and natural resources throughout the entire Danube catchment. It can be used to quantify climate risks, to support the implementation of the EU framework directives, for climate informed urban and land use planning, water resources management, and for climate proofing of large scale infrastructural planning including cost benefit analysis. The model suite consists of five individual and exchangeable modules: a weather and climate module, a hydrological module, a risk module, an adaptation module, and a web-based visualization module. They are linked in such a way that output from one module can either be used standalone or fed into subsequent modules. The utility of the tool has been tested by experts and stakeholders. The results show that more and more intense hydrological extremes are likely to occur under climate scenario conditions, e.g. higher order floods may occur more frequently.
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Conference paperLefauve A, Partridge J, Zhou Q, et al., 2018,
Video: Finding Nessie: The structure and origin of confined Holmboe waves
, 71th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics, Publisher: American Physical Society -
Journal articleLiu X, Cao XE, Liu Y, et al., 2018,
Branched multiphase TiO2 with enhanced photoelectrochemical water splitting activity
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Pages: 21365-21373, ISSN: 0360-3199An efficient hierarchical structure, nano-branch containing anatase TiO<inf>2</inf> nanofibers and rutile nanorods, was prepared via the combination of the electrospinning and hydrothermal processes. This novel configuration of TiO<inf>2</inf> multiphase possessed higher surface area, roughness, and fill factors compared with each single phase component prepared in the same condition, which significantly enhanced its light absorption. Our experimental results showed that within the interface of multiphase TiO<inf>2</inf>, the heterojunction promoted the charge separation and improved the charge transfer rate, leading to higher efficiency for photoelectrochemical water splitting. The photocurrent density of the nano-branched TiO<inf>2</inf> electrode could reach 0.95 mA/cm<sup>2</sup>, which was almost twice as large as that of the pristine TiO<inf>2</inf> nanorod. Our work provides a simple and feasible routine to synthesize complex TiO<inf>2</inf> nanoarchitectures, which lays a foundation for improving energy storage and conversion efficiency of TiO<inf>2</inf>-based photoelectrodes.
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Journal articleParks RM, Bennett J, Foreman K, et al., 2018,
National and regional seasonal dynamics of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the USA from 1980 to 2016
, eLife, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2050-084XIn temperate climates, winter deaths exceed summer ones. However, there is limited information on the timing and the relative magnitudes of maximum and minimum mortality, by local climate, age group, sex and medical cause of death. We used geo-coded mortality data and wavelets to analyse the seasonality of mortality by age group and sex from 1980 to 2016 in the USA and its subnational climatic regions. Death rates in men and women ≥ 45 years peaked in December to February and were lowest in June to August, driven by cardiorespiratory diseases and injuries. In these ages, percent difference in death rates between peak and minimum months did not vary across climate regions, nor changed from 1980 to 2016. Under five years, seasonality of all-cause mortality largely disappeared after the 1990s. In adolescents and young adults, especially in males, death rates peaked in June/July and were lowest in December/January, driven by injury deaths.
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Journal articleBull R, Romanowicz J, Jennings N, et al., 2018,
Competing priorities: lessons in engaging students to achieve energy savings in universities
, International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1467-6370PurposeThis paper aims to present findings from an EU-funded international student-led energy saving competition (SAVES) on a scale previously unseen. There are multiple accounts of short-term projects and energy saving competitions encouraging pro-environmental behaviour change amongst students in university dormitories, but the purpose of this research is to provide evidence of consistent and sustained energy savings from student-led energy savings competitions, underpinned by practical action.Design/methodology/approachA mixed-methods approach (pre- and post-intervention surveys, focus groups and analysis of energy meter data) was used to determine the level of energy savings and quantifiable behaviour change delivered by students across participating university dormitories.FindingsThis research has provided further insight into the potential for savings and behaviour change in university dormitories through relatively simple actions. Whilst other interventions have shown greater savings, this project provided consistent savings over two years of 7 per cent across a large number of university dormitories in five countries through simple behaviour changes.Research limitations/implicationsAn energy dashboard displaying near a real-time leaderboard was added to the engagement in the second year of the project. Whilst students were optimistic about the role that energy dashboards could play, the evidence is not here to quantify the impact of dashboards. Further research is required to understand the potential of dashboards to contribute to behavioural change savings and in constructing competitions between people and dormitories that are known to each other.Social implicationsSAVES provided engagement with students, enabling, empowering and motivating them to save energy – focusing specifically on the last stage of the “Awareness, Interest, Desire, Action” framework. Automated meter reading data was used in the majority of participating dormitories
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Journal articleOluleye OO, Allison J, Hawker G, et al., 2018,
A two-step optimization model for quantifying the flexibility potential of power-to-heat systems in dwellings
, Applied Energy, Vol: 228, Pages: 215-228, ISSN: 0306-2619Coupling the electricity and heat sectors is receiving interest as a potential source of flexibility to help absorb surplus renewable electricity. The flexibility afforded by power-to-heat systems in dwellings has yet to be quantified in terms of time, energy and costs, and especially in cases where homeowners are heterogeneous prosumers. Flexibility quantification whilst accounting for prosumer heterogeneity is non-trivial. Therefore in this work a novel two-step optimization framework is proposed to quantify the potential of prosumers to absorb surplus renewable electricity through the integration of air source heat pumps and thermal energy storage. The first step is formulated as a multi-period mixed integer linear programming problem to determine the optimal energy system, and the quantity of surplus electricity absorbed. The second step is formulated as a linear programming problem to determine the price a prosumer will accept for absorbing surplus electricity, and thus the number of active prosumers in the market.A case study of 445 prosumers is presented to illustrate the approach. Results show that the number of active prosumers is affected by the quantity of absorbed electricity, frequency of requests, the price offered by aggregators and how prosumers determine the acceptable value of flexibility provided. This study is a step towards reducing the need for renewable curtailment and increasing pricing transparency in relation to demand-side response.
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Journal articleLi YI, Toumi R, 2018,
Improved tropical cyclone intensity forecasts by assimilating coastal surface currents in an idealized study
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 45, Pages: 10019-10026, ISSN: 0094-8276High‐frequency (HF) radars can provide high‐resolution and frequent ocean surface currents observations during tropical cyclone (TC) landfall. We describe the first assimilation of such potential observations using idealized twin experiments with and without these observations. The data assimilation system consists of the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter and a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model. In this system, synthetic HF radar‐observed coastal currents are assimilated, and the 24‐, 48‐ and 72‐hr forecast performances are examined for TCs with various intensities, sizes, and translation speeds. Assimilating coastal surface currents improves the intensity forecast. The errors of the maximum wind speed reduce by 2.7 (33%) and 1.9 m/s (60%) in the 72‐hr forecast and 2.8 (40%) and 1.4 m/s (62%) in the 48‐hr forecast, for Category 4 and 2 cyclones, respectively. These improvements are similar to the current operational TC forecast errors, so that assimilating HF radar observations could be a substantial benefit.
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Journal articleChen G, Shouakar-Stash O, Phillips E, et al., 2018,
Dual Carbon-Chlorine Isotope Analysis Indicates Distinct Anaerobic Dichloromethane Degradation Pathways in Two Members of Peptococcaceae.
, Environ Sci Technol, Vol: 52, Pages: 8607-8616Dichloromethane (DCM) is a probable human carcinogen and frequent groundwater contaminant and contributes to stratospheric ozone layer depletion. DCM is degraded by aerobes harboring glutathione-dependent DCM dehalogenases; however, DCM contamination occurs in oxygen-deprived environments, and much less is known about anaerobic DCM metabolism. Some members of the Peptococcaceae family convert DCM to environmentally benign products including acetate, formate, hydrogen (H2), and inorganic chloride under strictly anoxic conditions. The current study applied stable carbon and chlorine isotope fractionation measurements to the axenic culture Dehalobacterium formicoaceticum and to the consortium RM comprising DCM degrader Candidatus Dichloromethanomonas elyunquensis. Degradation-associated carbon and chlorine isotope enrichment factors (εC and εCl) of -42.4 ± 0.7‰ and -5.3 ± 0.1‰, respectively, were measured in D. formicoaceticum cultures. A similar εCl of -5.2 ± 0.1‰, but a substantially lower εC of -18.3 ± 0.2‰, were determined for Ca. Dichloromethanomonas elyunquensis. The εC and εCl values resulted in distinctly different dual element C-Cl isotope correlations (ΛC/Cl = Δδ13C/Δδ37Cl) of 7.89 ± 0.12 and 3.40 ± 0.03 for D. formicoaceticum and Ca. Dichloromethanomonas elyunquensis, respectively. The distinct ΛC/Cl values obtained for the two cultures imply mechanistically distinct C-Cl bond cleavage reactions, suggesting that members of Peptococcaceae employ different pathways to metabolize DCM. These findings emphasize the utility of dual carbon-chlorine isotope analysis to pinpoint DCM degradation mechanisms and to provide an additional line of evidence that detoxification is occurring at DCM-contaminated sites.
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Journal articleZhou Z, Liu X, Hu Y, et al., 2018,
Investigation on synergistic oxidation behavior of NO and Hg0 during the newly designed fast SCR process
, Fuel, Vol: 225, Pages: 134-139, ISSN: 0016-2361In the present study, elemental mercury (Hg<sup>0</sup>) oxidation behavior in the NO oxidation step of fast SCR process was investigated. The Mn doped CeO<inf>2</inf>-ZrO<inf>2</inf> (CZM0.3) was selected as the catalyst, due to its superior oxygen storage capacity. The results showed that NO could be oxidized efficiently over the catalyst at around 250 °C under the atmosphere of NO/O<inf>2</inf>/N<inf>2</inf>. In the Hg<sup>0</sup>/NO/O<inf>2</inf>/N<inf>2</inf> reaction system, NO oxidation reaction remarkably improved Hg<sup>0</sup> oxidation efficiency. Two domination reaction pathways were proposed to interpret the influence of NO oxidation reaction on Hg<sup>0</sup> oxidation: one through a heterogeneous oxidation process, and the other through a homogeneous reaction. In the heterogeneous oxidation process, NO was adsorbed on the active sites and activated by the surface oxygen to form more active intermediates for Hg<sup>0</sup> oxidation. Hg<sup>0</sup> was probably oxidized in its gaseous state, since the affinity between NO and the catalyst was stronger than that between Hg<sup>0</sup> and the catalyst. The other reaction pathway was a homogeneous route, during which the gaseous NO<inf>2</inf> generated by NO oxidation could oxidize the gaseous Hg<sup>0</sup> within the designed reaction conditions. According to the present research, synergistic oxidation of NO and Hg<sup>0</sup> in the first step of fast SCR appears to be a promising way to remove Hg<sup>0</sup> and NO<inf>x</inf> in coal-fired power plants.
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Journal articleWang S, Toumi R, 2018,
Reduced sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity and size to sea surface temperature in a radiative-convective equilibrium environment
, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 35, Pages: 981-993, ISSN: 1861-9533It has been challenging to project the tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, structure and destructive potential changes in a warming climate. Here, we compare the sensitivities of TC intensity, size and destructive potential to sea surface warming with and without a pre-storm atmospheric adjustment to an idealized state of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE). Without RCE, we find large responses of TC intensity, size and destructive potential to sea surface temperature (SST) changes, which is in line with some previous studies. However, in an environment under RCE, the TC size is almost insensitive to SST changes, and the sensitivity of intensity is also much reduced to 3% °C−1–4% °C−1. Without the pre-storm RCE adjustment, the mean destructive potential measured by the integrated power dissipation increases by about 25% °C−1 during the mature stage. However, in an environment under RCE, the sensitivity of destructive potential to sea surface warming does not change significantly. Further analyses show that the reduced response of TC intensity and size to sea surface warming under RCE can be explained by the reduced thermodynamic disequilibrium between the air boundary layer and the sea surface due to the RCE adjustment. When conducting regional-scale sea surface warming experiments for TC case studies, without any RCE adjustment the TC response is likely to be unrealistically exaggerated. The TC intensity–temperature sensitivity under RCE is very similar to those found in coupled climate model simulations. This suggests global mean intensity projections under climate change can be understood in terms of a thermodynamic response to temperature with only a minor contribution from any changes in large-scale dynamics.
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Journal articleLefauve A, Partridge JL, Zhou Q, et al., 2018,
The structure and origin of confined Holmboe waves
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 848, Pages: 508-544, ISSN: 0022-1120- Cite
- Citations: 41
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Journal articleChang S, Cao X, Zou Z, 2018,
Regimes of Micro-bubble Formation Using Gas Injection into Ladle Shroud
, Metallurgical and Materials Transactions B Process Metallurgy and Materials Processing Science, Vol: 49, Pages: 953-957, ISSN: 1073-5615Gas injection into a ladle shroud is a practical approach to produce micro-bubbles in tundishes, to promote inclusion removal from liquid steel. A semi-empirical model was established to characterize the bubble formation considering the effect of shearing action combined with the non-fully bubble break-up by turbulence. The model shows a good accuracy in predicting the size of bubbles formed in complex flow within the ladle shroud.
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Journal articleAllison J, Bell K, Clarke J, et al., 2018,
Assessing domestic heat storage requirements for energy flexibility over varying timescales
, Applied Thermal Engineering, Vol: 136, Pages: 602-616, ISSN: 1359-4311© 2018 The Authors This paper explores the feasibility of storing heat in an encapsulated store to support thermal load shifting over three timescales: diurnal, weekly and seasonal. A building simulation tool was used to calculate the space heating and hot water demands for four common UK housing types and a range of operating conditions. A custom sizing methodology calculated the capacities of storage required to fully meet the heat demands over the three timescales. Corresponding storage volumes were calculated for a range of heat storage materials deemed suitable for storing heat within a dwelling, either in a tank or as an integral part of the building fabric: hot water, concrete, high-temperature magnetite blocks, and a phase change material. The results indicate that with low temperature heat storage, domestic load shifting is feasible over a few days. Beyond this timescale, the very large storage volumes required make integration in dwellings problematic. Supporting load shifting over 1–2 weeks is feasible with high temperature storage. Retention of heat over periods longer than this is challenging, even with significant levels of insulation. Seasonal storage of heat in an encapsulated store appeared impractical in all cases modelled due to the volume of material required.
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Journal articleRiesen M, Konstantinoudis G, Lang P, et al., 2018,
Exploring variation in human papillomavirus vaccination uptake in Switzerland: a multilevel spatial analysis of a national vaccination coverage survey
, BMJ Open, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2044-6055Objective Understanding the factors that influence human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake is critically important to the design of effective vaccination programmes. In Switzerland, HPV vaccination uptake (≥1 dose) by age 16 years among women ranges from 31% to 80% across 26 cantons (states). Our objective was to identify factors that are associated with the spatial variation in HPV vaccination uptake.Methods We used cross-sectional data from the Swiss National Vaccination Coverage Survey 2009–2016 on HPV vaccination status (≥1 dose) of 14–17-year-old girls, their municipality of residence and their nationality for 21 of 26 cantons (n=8965). We examined covariates at municipality level: language, degree of urbanisation, socioeconomic position, religious denomination, results of a vote about vaccination laws as a proxy for vaccine scepticism and, at cantonal level, availability of school-based vaccination and survey period. We used a series of conditional autoregressive models to assess the effects of covariates while accounting for variability between cantons and municipal-level spatial autocorrelation.Results In the best-fit model, living in cantons that have school-based vaccination (adjusted OR 2.51; 95% credible interval 1.77 to 3.56) was associated with increased uptake, while living in municipalities with lower acceptance of vaccination laws was associated with lower HPV vaccination uptake (OR 0.61; 95% credible interval 0.50 to 0.73). Overall, the covariates explained 88% of the municipal-level variation in uptake.Conclusions In Switzerland, both cantons and community opinion about vaccination play a prominent role in the variation in HPV vaccination uptake. To increase uptake, efforts should be made to mitigate vaccination scepticism and to encourage school-based vaccination.
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Journal articleOluleye G, Hawkes AD, Allison J, et al., 2018,
An optimisation study on integrating and incentivising Thermal Energy Storage (TES) in a dwelling energy system
, Energies, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1996-1073In spite of the benefits from thermal energy storage (TES) integration in dwellings, the penetration rate in Europe is 5%. Effective fiscal policies are necessary to accelerate deployment. However, there is currently no direct support for TES in buildings compared to support for electricity storage. This could be due to lack of evidence to support incentivisation. In this study, a novel systematic framework is developed to provide a case in support of TES incentivisation. The model determines the costs, CO2 emissions, dispatch strategy and sizes of technologies, and TES for a domestic user under policy neutral and policy intensive scenarios. The model is applied to different building types in the UK. The model is applied to a case study for a detached dwelling in the UK (floor area of 122 m2), where heat demand is satisfied by a boiler and electricity imported from the grid. Results show that under a policy neutral scenario, integrating a micro-Combined Heat and Power (CHP) reduces the primary energy demand by 11%, CO2 emissions by 21%, but with a 16 year payback. Additional benefits from TES integration can pay for the investment within the first 9 years, reducing to 3.5–6 years when the CO2 levy is accounted for. Under a policy intensive scenario (for example considering the Feed in Tariff (FIT)), primary energy demand and CO2 emissions reduce by 17 and 33% respectively with a 5 year payback. In this case, the additional benefits for TES integration can pay for the investment in TES within the first 2 years. The framework developed is a useful tool is determining the role TES in decarbonising domestic energy systems.
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ReportHanna RF, Gazis E, Edge J, et al., 2018,
Unlocking the potential of Energy Systems Integration: An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper
, Publisher: Energy Futures LabEnergy Systems Integration’s (ESI) underlying concept is the coordination, and integration, of energy generation and use at local, regional and national levels. This relates to all aspects of energy from production and conversion to delivery and end use. Building such a system is potentially a cost-effective way to decarbonise our energy sector and produce a more reliable and resilient system. This Briefing Paper investigates how the UK can link heat, transport, electricity and other energy vectors into one interconnected ecosystem. It lays out the immense opportunities of having an interconnected and integrated energy ecosystem and the technologies that could make it a reality. Among these is enabling variable renewable electricity and lower-carbon fuels to provide energy services traditionally provided by higher-carbon sources. This could be realised through a more resilient system incorporating greater flexibility and more diverse energy sources.
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Journal articleBruneau N, Toumi R, Wang S, 2018,
Publisher correction: Impact of wave whitecapping on land falling tropical cyclones
, Scientific Reports, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2045-2322 -
Journal articleWang S, Toumi R, 2018,
A historical analysis of the mature stage of tropical cyclones
, International Journal of Climatology, Vol: 38, Pages: 2490-2505, ISSN: 0899-8418The characteristics of tropical cyclone intensity and size during the mature stage are presented. Rooted in the classic description by Herbert Riehl, the mature stage is identified as the period from the time of lifetime maximum intensity to the time of lifetime maximum size. This study is the first to analyse the global climatology of the mature stage of tropical cyclones in detail. Three basic features at the mature stage are observed: the reduction of intensity, the outward expansion of the eyewall, and the increase of tangential wind in the outer primary circulation. Globally, about a quarter of tropical cyclones undergo the mature stage. High intensity at the end of the immature stage favours the likelihood of the occurrence of the mature stage. The intensity reduction during the mature stage is considerable with nearly three-quarters of cyclones decreasing by more than 10%, which makes the conventional ‘steady-state’ presumption questionable. The increase in the radius of damaging-force wind is typically about 50 km, while the decrease in maximum wind speed is typically 20% at the mature stage. However, the average integrated kinetic energy and hence destructive potential increases substantially by about 70%. This is consistent with our finding that most of the highly damaging landfalling hurricanes undergo a mature stage. Intensity downgrades during the mature stage may be misinterpreted as they are mostly not accompanied by an overall danger reduction.
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Kreis C, Ammann RA, et al., 2018,
Spatial clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: a nationwide study
, CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL, Vol: 29, Pages: 353-362, ISSN: 0957-5243- Author Web Link
- Cite
- Citations: 5
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Journal articleBruneau N, Toumi R, Wang S, 2018,
Impact of wave whitecapping on land falling tropical cyclones
, Scientific Reports, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2045-2322Predicting tropical cyclone structure and evolution remains challenging. Particularly, the surface wave interactions with thecontinental shelf and their impact on tropical cyclones have received very little attention. Through a series of state-of-the-arthigh-resolution, fully-coupled ocean-wave and atmosphere-ocean-wave experiments, we show here, for the first time, thatin presence of continental shelf waves can cause substantial cooling of the sea surface. Through whitecapping there is atransfer of momentum from the surface which drives deeper vertical mixing. It is the waves and not just the wind which becomethe major driver of stratified coastal ocean ahead-of-cyclone cooling. In the fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model anegative feedback is found. The maximum wind speed is weaker and the damaging footprint area of hurricane-force winds isreduced by up to 50% due to the strong wave induced ocean cooling ahead. Including wave-ocean coupling is important toimprove land falling tropical cyclone intensity predictions for the highly populated and vulnerable coasts.
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Journal articlePhillipson L, Toumi R, 2018,
The Crossover Time as an Evaluation of OceanModels Against Persistence
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 45, Pages: 250-257, ISSN: 0094-8276A new ocean evaluation metric, the crossover time, is defined as the time it takes for a numerical model to equal the performance of persistence. As an example, the average crossover time calculated using the Lagrangian separation distance (the distance between simulated trajectories and observed drifters) for the global MERCATOR ocean model analysis is found to be about six days. Conversely, the model forecast has an average crossover time longer than six days, suggesting limited skill in Lagrangian predictability by the current generation of global ocean models. The crossover time of the velocity error is less than three days, which is similar to the average decorrelation time of the observed drifters. The crossover time is a useful measure to quantify future ocean model improvements.
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Conference paperD'Amore L, Arcucci R, Li Y, et al., 2018,
Performance Assessment of the Incremental Strong Constraints 4DVAR Algorithm in ROMS
, 12th International Conference on Parallel Processing and Applied Mathematics (PPAM), Publisher: SPRINGER INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHING AG, Pages: 48-57, ISSN: 0302-9743
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