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  • Journal article
    Patel DN, Matalon P, Oluleye G, 2024,

    A novel temporal mixed-integer market penetration model for cost-effective uptake of electric boilers in the UK chemical industry

    , Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 446, ISSN: 0959-6526

    The UK chemical industry is the largest consumer of natural gas for process heating and power generation, with an annual consumption of 26.3 TWh. Reduction in natural gas consumption and associated carbon emissions can be achieved through electrification of heat. However, the adoption of electric boilers is lethargic due to economic barriers. Hence, market-based policy interventions are required. This study aims to accelerate the adoption of electric boilers in the UK's chemical industry, aligning with the UK's ambitious 2035 industrial decarbonisation goals while considering economic impacts, by designing market-based policy interventions and comparing two adoption patterns. A novel multi-period Mixed-Integer Market Penetration Optimisation Model is developed and applied to inform decisions about transitioning from natural gas to electric boilers. The model is applied to a case study of all the heating systems (490 boilers) in the UK chemical industry from 1 MW to 60 MW boilers. Results show that effectively implementing a gas tax, electricity subsidy, annual grant and carbon tax can generate sufficient demand-pull to reduce the cost of electric boilers from 30 to 85 % depending on the boiler size. A carbon tax starting at £280 per tCO2e and reducing to £170 per tCO2e coupled with electricity subsidies is essential for this transition. The policies are designed such that a win-win is achieved between government and industry; specifically, revenue from the carbon tax and gas tax is used to support the grant and electricity subsidy thereby achieving cost neutrality for government. At 100 % uptake of electric boilers in 2033, the total carbon emissions reduce by 89 %, which is above the 2035 UK industry goal of 60 % reduction. The research establishes a robust policy timeline that can drive industrial electrification in the UK's chemical sector. It highlights the need for a multi-faceted approach, incorporating various policy instruments to overcome the ba
  • Journal article
    Liang C, Katayama Y, Tao Y, Morinaga A, Moss B, Celorrio V, Ryan M, Stephens IEL, Durrant JR, Rao RRet al., 2024,

    Role of Electrolyte pH on Water Oxidation for Iridium Oxides

    , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 8928-8938, ISSN: 0002-7863
  • Journal article
    Moss B, Svane KL, Nieto-Castro D, Rao RR, Scott SB, Tseng C, Sachs M, Pennathur A, Liang C, Oldham LI, Mazzolini E, Jurado L, Sankar G, Parry S, Celorrio V, Dawlaty JM, Rossmeisl J, Galan-Mascaros JR, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2024,

    Cooperative Effects Drive Water Oxidation Catalysis in Cobalt Electrocatalysts through the Destabilization of Intermediates

    , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 8915-8927, ISSN: 0002-7863
  • Report
    Pinto I, Odoulami RC, Lawal KA, Olaniyan E, Ibrahim WA, Guigma K, Vahlberg M, Heinrich D, Marghidan CP, Vogel M, Arrighi J, Barnes C, Otto F, Philip S, Mistry M, Sengupta S, Kew S, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

    Dangerous humid heat in southern West Africa about 4°C hotter due to climate change
  • Journal article
    Qian J, Hu T, Xiong H, Cao X, Liu F, Gosnell KJ, Xie M, Chen R, Tan Q-Get al., 2024,

    Turbid Waters and Clearer Standards: Refining Water Quality Criteria for Coastal Environments by Encompassing Metal Bioavailability from Suspended Particles

    , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 58, Pages: 5244-5254, ISSN: 0013-936X
  • Report
    Ersoz A, Rhodes A, 2024,

    Delivering our future power system - an Energy Futures Lab briefing paper

    , Delivering Our Future Power System - An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper
  • Journal article
    Guo C, Benzie P, Hu S, de Nijs B, Miele E, Elliott E, Arul R, Benjamin H, Dziechciarczyk G, Rao RR, Ryan MP, Baumberg JJet al., 2024,

    Extensive photochemical restructuring of molecule-metal surfaces under room light

    , NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 15
  • Report
    Jennings N, Paterson P, Whitmarsh L, Howarth Cet al., 2024,

    What do the UK public think about the co-benefits that climate action can bring?

    This slide deck summarises findings from a nationally representative sample (on the basis of age, gender and ethnicity) of 1,021 people who were asked to share their opinions about the co-benefits of climate action. People were surveyed via the online survey platform Prolific on Monday 12th February 2024. The headline findings and recommendations are followed by a case study focused on homes that are more affordable to heat. The insights in this slide deck build on findings from a Grantham report published in October 2023, How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action? which included survey and focus groups with members of the UK public.
  • Journal article
    Liu F, Toumi R, Zhang H, Chen Det al., 2024,

    Impact of precipitation on ocean responses during a tropical cyclone

    , Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol: 54, Pages: 895-909, ISSN: 0022-3670

    Precipitation plays a crucial role in modulating upper-ocean salinity and the formation of the barrier layer, which affects the development of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study performed idealized simulations to investigate the influence of precipitation on the upper ocean. Precipitation acts to suppress the wind-induced sea surface reduction and generates an asymmetric warming response with a rightward bias. There is substantial vertical change with a cooling anomaly in the subsurface, which is about 3 times larger than the surface warming. The mean tropical cyclone heat potential is locally increased, but the net effect across the cyclone footprint is small. The impact of precipitation on the ocean tends to saturate for extreme precipitation, suggesting a nonlinear feedback. A prevailing driver of the model behavior is that the freshwater flux from precipitation strengthens the stratification and increases current shear in the upper ocean, trapping more kinetic energy in the surface layer and subsequently weakening near-inertial waves in the deep ocean. This study highlights the competing roles of TC precipitation and wind. Because the TC category is weaker than category 3, the warming anomaly is caused by reduced vertical mixing, whereas for stronger storms, the advection process is most important.
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Couchman MMP, 2024,

    Data-driven classification of sheared stratified turbulence from experimental shadowgraphs

    , Physical Review Fluids, Vol: 9

    We propose a dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering method for the automatic classification and reduced-order modeling of density-stratified turbulence in laboratory experiments. We apply this method to 113 long shadowgraph movies collected in a "stratified inclined duct"experiment, where turbulence is generated by instabilities arising from a sheared buoyancy-driven counterflow at Reynolds numbers Re≈300-5000, tilt angles θ=1°-6°, and Prandtl number Pr≈700. The method automatically detects edges representative of discrete density interfaces, extracts a low-dimensional vector of statistics representative of their morphology, projects these statistics onto a two-dimensional phase space of principal coordinates, and applies a clustering algorithm. Five clusters are detected and interpreted physically based on their typical interface morphology and an examination of representative frames, revealing distinct types of turbulence and mixing: laminarizing, braided, overturning, granular, and unstructured, as well as some intermediate types. The ratio of time spent in each cluster varies gradually across the (Re,θ) space. At intermediate values of Reθ, intermittent turbulence cycles between clusters in phase space and reveals at least two distinct routes to stratified turbulence. These insights demonstrate the potential of this method to reveal the underlying physics of complex turbulent systems from large experimental datasets.
  • Report
    Zachariah M, Clarke B, Barnes C, Kimutai J, Sivanu S, Ybañez RL, Otto F, Philip S, Arrighi J, Falk K, Cruz FA, Avila F, Olaguera LM, Petilla CEet al., 2024,

    More effective early flood warning needed in exposed communities to reduce loss of lives with increasing heavy rainfall in Mindanao Island, southern Philippines
  • Report
    Clarke B, Thorne P, Ryan C, Zachariah M, Murphy C, McCarthy G, O'Connor P, Eresanya EO, Cahill N, Coonan B, Otto Fet al., 2024,

    Climate change made the extreme 2-day rainfall event associated with flooding in Midleton, Ireland more likely and more intense
  • Journal article
    Zhu L, Jiang X, Lefauve A, Kerswell RR, Linden PFet al., 2024,

    New insights into experimental stratified flows obtained through physics-informed neural networks

    , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 981, ISSN: 0022-1120
  • Report
    Kimutai J, Carrasco-Escaff T, Garreaud RD, Zachariah M, Barnes C, Libonati R, Keeping T, Villarroel Jiménez C, Muñoz Bravo F, Boisier JP, Santos Vega M, Vahlberg M, Sengupta S, Otto F, Clarke B, Munoz A, Rojas Corradi M, Mistry M, Philip S, Kew Set al., 2024,

    Despite known coastal cooling trend, risk of deadly wildfires in central Chile increasing with changing land management in a warming climate
  • Journal article
    Sietsma AJ, Theokritoff E, Biesbroek R, Canosa IV, Thomas A, Callaghan M, Minx JC, Ford JDet al., 2024,

    Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

    , One Earth, Vol: 7, Pages: 280-292, ISSN: 2590-3330

    Climate change adaptation policies are urgently needed, but the large volume and variety of evidence limits the ability of practitioners to make informed decisions. Here, we create an evidence map of adaptation policy research, selecting and categorizing 8,691 documents using state-of-the-art transformers-based machine learning models. We combine policy-relevant categories, such as the NATO-typology and governance levels, with automatically extracted locations and a structural topic model to provide a detailed global assessment of the tools governments are using to address climate change risks and impacts. We find that international-level policies, as well as policies in North America and much of the Global South, emphasize financial instruments, whereas national policies, particularly in Europe and Oceania, favor authority-based legislation. Collaborative approaches are most common at the local level. Despite a rapidly expanding evidence base overall, we note persistent geographic inequalities and limited evidence on information-based policies, policy implementation, and structural reforms.
  • Journal article
    Lawrance EL, Massazza A, Pantelidou I, Newberry Le Vay J, El Omrani O, Hore R, Watson C, Thomson M, Boyce N, Wright S, Olude A, Lekwa H, Uchendu J, Newman S, Wray B, Zeitz L, Anchang KY, Greaves N, Maharaj S, Aruta JJB, Guinto RR, Whitton S, Meyer R, Suarez P, Bailey M, Curl M, Sakalauskas D, Howitt P, Meinsma N, Rao M, Jennings N, Otto F, Nabarro Det al., 2024,

    Connecting Climate Minds: a shared vision for the climate change and mental health field

    , Nature Mental Health, Vol: 2, Pages: 121-125
  • Report
    Pinto I, Rantanen M, Ødemark K, Tradowsky J, Kjellström E, Barnes C, Otto F, Heinrich D, Pereira Marghidan C, Vahlberg M, Falk K, Vautard R, Kew S, Philip S, Kimutai J, Zachariah M, Arrighi J, Forsberg A, Vaalgamaa N, Scheider Let al., 2024,

    Extreme cold will still occur in Northern Europe, although less often - risking decreasing preparedness and higher vulnerability
  • Report
    Zachariah M, Clarke B, Barnes C, Vahlberg M, Banthiya A, Thalheimer L, Otto F, Kimutai J, Arrighi J, Fisher Det al., 2024,

    Climate change increased heavy precipitation associated with impactful Storm Bettina over Black Sea
  • Report
    Waring BG, 2024,

    The potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change

    This briefing note assesses the potential for soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change, summarising the basic science and providing an overview of best practices for measuring and modifying soil carbon stocks. We also set out recommendations for policy makers, examining UK land use policies as a case study.
  • Report
    Clarke B, Barnes C, Rodrigues R, Zachariah M, Stewart S, Raju E, Baumgart N, Heinrich D, Libonati R, Santos D, Albuquerque R, Alves LM, Pinto I, Otto F, Kimutai J, Philip S, Kew S, Bazo Jet al., 2024,

    Climate change, not El Niño, main driver of extreme drought in highly vulnerable Amazon River Basin
  • Journal article
    Shi J, Feng X, Toumi R, Zhang C, Hodges KI, Tao A, Zhang W, Zheng Jet al., 2024,

    Publisher Correction: Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723
  • Conference paper
    Morgan O, Elwy L, Oluleye O, 2024,

    Assessing the UK’s attempt to establish a zero-carbon hydrogen economy in the industrial sector

    , International Conference on Applied Energy, Publisher: Scanditale AB, ISSN: 2004-2965

    This study determines the cost reducing effect of hydrogen supply-push targets, which will indicate the sufficiency of current UK government policy to initiate a hydrogen economy within the industrial sector. This study will also answer the question “What demand-pull policies can support fuel switching to hydrogen in UK industry?” A novel mixed-methods approach is used, in-depth rapid evidence assessment and a macro market penetration assessment to understand how to best establish an industrial hydrogen economy. Our findings show that without demand-pull policies, 65 GW to 350 GW of hydrogen supply is required to achieve price parity with natural gas.
  • Journal article
    Shi J, Feng X, Toumi R, Zhang C, Hodges KI, Tao A, Zhang W, Zheng Jet al., 2024,

    Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723

    The long-term changes of ocean surface waves associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are poorly observed and understood. Here, we present the global trend analysis of TC waves for 1979–2022 based on the ERA5 wave reanalysis. The maximum height and the area of the TC wave footprint in the six h reanalysis have increased globally by about 3%/decade and 6%/decade, respectively. The TC wave energy transferred at the interface from the atmosphere to the ocean has increased globally by about 9%/decade, which is three times larger than that reported for all waves. The global energy changes are mostly driven by the growing area of the wave footprint. Our study shows that the TC-associated wave hazard has increased significantly and these changes are larger than those of the TC maximum wind speed. This suggests that the wave hazard should be a concern in the future.
  • Conference paper
    Oluleye O, Hu F, Abu Ali H, Savage Tet al., 2024,

    A novel stochastic market potential optimisation model for clean technology uptake modelling

    , International Conference on Applied Energy, Publisher: Scanditale AB, ISSN: 2004-2965

    The high mitigation cost of clean innovations, warrants policy support for increased uptake. This study applies optimization techniques to investigate the impact of market-based policies in generating sufficient demand pull to trigger cost reduction under uncertainty. A novel Stochastic Market Potential Optimization model (SMPOM) is developed to maximize the cost difference between the initial cost of a technology and the new cost using a market-based policy. The model is applied to a case study of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in 32 integrated steel plants in Europe. Results show policy induced demand pull can reduce the mitigation cost of CCS.
  • Book chapter
    Holm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,

    On the interactions between mean flows and inertial gravity waves in the WKB approximation

    , Mathematics of Planet Earth, Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland, Pages: 111-141, ISBN: 9783031400933

    We derive a Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) closure of the generalised Lagrangian mean (GLM) theory by using a phase-averaged Hamilton variational principle for the Euler–Boussinesq (EB) equations. Following Gjaja and Holm 1996, we consider 3D inertial gravity waves (IGWs) in the EB approximation. The GLM closure for WKB IGWs expresses EB wave mean flow interaction (WMFI) as WKB wave motion boosted into the reference frame of the EB equations for the Lagrangian mean transport velocity. We provide both deterministic and stochastic closure models for GLM IGWs at leading order in 3D complex vector WKB wave asymptotics. This paper brings the Gjaja and Holm 1996 paper at leading order in wave amplitude asymptotics into an easily understood short form and proposes a stochastic generalisation of the WMFI equations for IGWs.
  • Journal article
    Konstantinoudis G, Evangelopoulos D, Katsaounou P, Filippidis Fet al., 2024,

    Association of high temperatures with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in a context of high smoking prevalence: The case of Greece

    , Tobacco Prevention and Cessation, Vol: 10

    Introduction Climate change presents a significant threat to human health. Increased temperatures can aggravate COPD and asthma and exacerbate the effect of factors such as air pollution or pollen, which are known to affect these diseases. Older people, people with multiple chronic diseases, and deprived populations are affected the most by high temperatures. Quantifying this variation is crucial to inform adaptation to heat policies and to shed light on how effect modifiers such as deprivation, green space, and smoking modify this effect. Methods Daily data on all-cause mortality at the NUTS3 administrative regions (nomos) during 2000–2019 in Greece by age and sex was retrieved from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. The daily mean temperature at 9kmx9km was retrieved from the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. We employed a case-crossover study design to examine all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by age (75<, 75–84, 85+) and sex (male and female), focusing on the effect of heatwaves (deaths occurring during April to September) using six different definitions (durations = >2 or >3 days and thresholds = 90%, 95% and 99% of the annual space specific temperature percentile). We fitted Bayesian conditional Poisson regression models and examined how the effect varies in time and at the NUTS3 region level. Results We retrieved 216, 758 cardiorespiratory deaths from April and September during 2000–2019. Most of the deaths were among females (52%). Overall, we observed an increasing effect of heatwaves on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality with increasing duration and temperature thresholds. We also observed an overall decreasing trend of the heatwave effect across the study periods in all heatwave definitions, apart from our most extreme definition, where we observed an increasing trend. We observed weak evidence of spatial vulnerabilities. Conclusions Heatwaves are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortalit
  • Journal article
    Tsui EYL, Chan PW, Toumi R, 2024,

    Boundary layer profile of decaying and non-decaying tropical storms near landfall

    , Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1530-261X

    The vertical profile of the wind structure of translating tropical cyclones, including the associated azimuthal asymmetry, has been the subject of existing theoretical and observational studies using dropsondes. Most of these studies are based on data collected from relatively strong cyclones over the Atlantic. Here we explore the tropical cyclone boundary layer wind profile of mainly relatively weak landfalling cyclones near Hong Kong. We find that decaying tropical storms have a much larger mid- to low-level inflow angle than those that are intensifying or in steady-state. The inflow angles of intensifying, steady-state and decaying tropical storms converge towards the top of the boundary layer. The wind speed reduces through the boundary layer in a similar way in all three cases. The combination of these factors means that decaying tropical storms have stronger inflow than intensifying and steady-state ones. We attribute these local effects to remote enhanced surface friction over land when the storms are weakening.
  • Journal article
    Serdeczny O, Andrijevic M, Fyson C, Lissner T, Menke I, Schleussner CF, Theokritoff E, Thomas Aet al., 2024,

    Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

    , Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol: 29, ISSN: 1381-2386

    Does climate change influence if societies will be better or worse equipped to reduce climatic risks in the future? A society’s adaptive capacity determines whether the potential of adaptation to reduce risks will be realized. Assumptions about the level of adaptive capacity are inherently made when the potential for adaptation to reduce risks in the future and resultant levels of risk are estimated. In this review, we look at the literature on human impacts of climate change through the lens of adaptive capacity. Building on evidence of impacts on financial resources as presented in the Working Group 2 (WG2) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), we here present the methodology behind this review and complement it with an analysis of climatic risks to human resources. Based on our review, we argue that climate change itself adds to adaptation constraints and limits. We show that for more realistic assessments of sectoral climate risks, assumed levels of future adaptive capacity should — and can — be usefully constrained in assessments that rely on expert judgment, and propose avenues for doing so.
  • Journal article
    Dalder J, Oluleye G, Cannone C, Yeganyan R, Tan N, Howells Met al., 2024,

    Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)

    , ENERGIES, Vol: 17
  • Journal article
    Paiboonsin P, Oluleye G, Howells M, Yeganyan R, Cannone C, Patterson S, Elshkaki Aet al., 2024,

    Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia's Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)

    , ENERGIES, Vol: 17

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