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  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322

    It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.
  • Journal article
    Cao XE, Sun W, 2022,

    Standardization, accreditation, and real-world implementation of photothermal CO2 catalysis

    , Chem Catalysis, Vol: 2, Pages: 218-220, ISSN: 2667-1107

    In this activity article, Xiangkun Elvis Cao, impact fellow at MIT Climate & Sustainability Consortium, and Wei Sun, research-stream professor at Zhejiang University, discuss the need for standardization and accreditation to accelerate photothermal CO<inf>2</inf> catalysis research as well as the opportunities and challenges in its real-world implementation.
  • Journal article
    Sun W, Cao XE, 2022,

    Photothermal CO2 catalysis: From catalyst discovery to reactor design

    , Chem Catalysis, Vol: 2, Pages: 215-217, ISSN: 2667-1107

    In this activity, Wei Sun, research-stream professor at Zhejiang University, and Xiangkun Elvis Cao, impact fellow at MIT Climate & Sustainability Consortium, exchange views on academic and industrial considerations on the two vital elements of the advanced technology for photothermal CO<inf>2</inf> catalysis, i.e., catalyst discovery and reactor design.
  • Journal article
    Cao XE, Ongagna-Yhombi SY, Wang R, Ren Y, Srinivasan B, Hayden JA, Zhao Z, Erickson D, Mehta Set al., 2022,

    A diagnostic platform for rapid, simultaneous quantification of procalcitonin and C-reactive protein in human serum.

    , EBioMedicine, Vol: 76

    BACKGROUND: Early and accurate determination of bacterial infections as a potential cause for a patient's systemic inflammatory response is required for timely administration of appropriate treatment and antibiotic stewardship. Procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) have both been used as biomarkers to infer bacterial infections, particularly in the context of sepsis. There is an urgent need to develop a platform for simultaneous quantification of PCT and CRP, to enable the potential use of these biomarkers at the point-of-care. METHODS: A multiplexed lateral flow assay (LFA) and a fluorescence optical reader were developed. Assay performance was validated by testing spiked antigens in the buffer, followed by a validation study comparing results with conventional assays (Roche Cobas e411 Elecsys PCT and Siemens ADVIA XPT CRP) in 25 archived remnant human serum samples. FINDINGS: A linear regression correlation of 0·97 (P < 0·01) was observed for PCT, and a correlation of 0·95 (P < 0·01) was observed for CRP using direct patient samples. We also validated our platform's ability to accurately quantify high-dose CRP in the hook effect range where excess unlabeled analytes occupy binding sites at test lines. INTERPRETATION: A fluorescence reader-based duplex LFA for simultaneous quantification of PCT and CRP was developed and successfully validated with clinical samples. The rapid, portable, and low-cost nature of the platform offers potential for differentiation of bacterial and viral infections in emergency and low-resource settings at the point-of-care. FUNDING: NIH/NIBIB Award 1R01EB021331, and Academic Venture Fund from the Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future at Cornell University.
  • Journal article
    Buizza C, Casas CQ, Nadler P, Mack J, Marrone S, Titus Z, Le Cornec C, Heylen E, Dur T, Ruiz LB, Heaney C, Lopez JAD, Kumar KSS, Arcucci Ret al., 2022,

    Data Learning: Integrating Data Assimilation and Machine Learning

    , JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, Vol: 58, ISSN: 1877-7503
    • Cite
    • Citations: 72
  • Report
    Trask A, Hanna R, Rhodes A, 2022,

    The future of home heating: The roles of heat pumps and hydrogen

    , The Future of Home Heating: The Roles of Heat Pumps and Hydrogen

    In this Briefing Paper, the prospectsfor the future of home heating areanalysed with specific reference toheat pumps and hydrogen heating.The report is based on extensiveliterature surrounding the topic ofdecarbonisation of the heat sectorin the UK and will discuss thevarious advantages, challenges, andtechnicalities surrounding the twotechnologies. The evidence gatheredand discussed culminates in a set ofrecommendations that prioritise keyareas that require addressing overthe course of the next decade.
  • Journal article
    Konstantinoudis G, Cameletti M, Gómez-Rubio V, León Gómez I, Pirani M, Baio G, Larrauri A, Riou J, Egger M, Vineis P, Blangiardo Met al., 2022,

    Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2041-1723

    The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in thefirst stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
  • Journal article
    Vonrueti N, Rao R, Giordano L, Shao-Horn Y, Aschauer Uet al., 2022,

    Implications of Nonelectrochemical Reaction Steps on the Oxygen Evolution Reaction: Oxygen Dimer Formation on Perovskite Oxide and Oxynitride Surfaces

    , ACS CATALYSIS, Vol: 12, Pages: 1433-1442, ISSN: 2155-5435
  • Working paper
    Konstantinoudis G, Gómez-Rubio V, Cameletti M, Pirani M, Baio G, Blangiardo Met al., 2022,

    A framework for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    , Publisher: arXiv

    COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the assumption that the pandemic did not occur. Expected deaths had the pandemic not occurred depend on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a framework using R to estimate and visualise excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed framework is fast to implement and allows combining different models and presenting the results in any age, sex, spatial and temporal aggregation desired. This makes it particularly powerful and appealing for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
  • Journal article
    Zhou Z, Liu L, Liu X, Zhou Y, Li C, Peng D, Xu J, Wang C, Cao XEet al., 2022,

    Direct combustion of wet/dry solution-impregnated cigarette butts for nano-FeOx synthesis: Effects of combustion conditions and NO reduction ability

    , Colloids and Interface Science Communications, Vol: 46

    Cigarette butts (CBs) were used to synthesize nano-FeOx following a facile and rapid route. This method involves the impregnation of a nitrate solution with CBs and the adsorption of the precursors on the CBs. The wet or dried impregnated CBs were burned under the smoldering or flaming combustion mode to obtain nano-FeOx. This method differs from the cellulose-assisted combustion method as pure organic fuels are not used during the process. Excess energy is required for the sustenance of the combustion of impregnated CB, while the method of combustion of activated cellulose papers is self-sustaining. The physical and chemical characteristics of the nano-FeOx particles were determined under the combustion modes and whether they were dried or not. Flaming combustion of dry-impregnated CB could prepare nano-FeOx with good crystallization, while smoldering of wet-impregnated CB led to good low-temperature redox activities.
  • Journal article
    Rai U, Oluleye G, Hawkes A, 2022,

    An optimisation model to determine the capacity of a distributed energy resource to contract with a balancing services aggregator

    , Applied Energy, Vol: 306, Pages: 1-22, ISSN: 0306-2619

    Electricity systems require a real-time balance between generation and demand for electricity. In the past, changing the output of larger generators has been the primary means of achieving this balance, but more recently, smaller distributed energy resources (DERs) are becoming a contributor. As electricity generation becomes more intermittent due to the uptake of renewables, the task of balancing the electricity system is becoming more challenging. As such, there will be a greater need for DERs for grid balancing in future. DERs may be delivered via aggregators for this purpose, where several individual resources are grouped to be traded in contracts with a System Operator (SO). This paper presents a novel framework for DERs aggregators to determine by optimisation the capacity of a generating unit to contract with the SO, using mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP). Results show the site revenue increases between 6.2% and 29.8% compared to the heuristic approach previously employed. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of temporal resolution of demand characterisation on results, showing that increased resolution improves accuracy significantly, and reduces the estimate of capacity that the site should contract with the aggregator.
  • Journal article
    Murguía Burton ZF, Cao XE, 2022,

    Navigating mental health challenges in graduate school.

    , Nat Rev Mater, Vol: 7, Pages: 421-423, ISSN: 2058-8437

    Many graduate students experience mental health struggles that lead them to question their place in academia. Two scientists who experienced extreme lows in graduate school reflect on what helped them during their low points, and suggest strategies for everyone to contribute to mentally healthier workplaces in academia.
  • Journal article
    Katayama Y, Kubota R, Rao RR, Hwang J, Giordano L, Morinaga A, Okanishi T, Muroyama H, Matsui T, Shao-Horn Y, Eguchi Ket al., 2021,

    Direct Observation of Surface-Bound Intermediates During Methanol Oxidation on Platinum Under Alkaline Conditions

    , JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 125, Pages: 26321-26331, ISSN: 1932-7447
    • Cite
    • Citations: 16
  • Journal article
    Cao XE, 2021,

    Running a Muddy Road Lit by Burning Straw.

    , Anal Chem, Vol: 93, Pages: 15803-15804
  • Journal article
    Heydari S, Konstantinoudis G, Behsoodi AW, 2021,

    Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on bike-sharing demand and hire time: Evidence from Santander Cycles in London

    , PLOS ONE, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1932-6203
  • Journal article
    Corby S, Rao R, Steier L, Durrant Jet al., 2021,

    The kinetics of metal oxide photoanodesfrom charge generation to catalysis

    , Nature Reviews Materials, Vol: 6, Pages: 1136-1155, ISSN: 2058-8437

    Generating charge carriers with lifetimes long enough to drive catalysis is a critical aspect for both photoelectrochemical and photocatalytic systems and a key determinant of their efficiency. This review addresses the charge carrier dynamics underlying the performance of metal oxides as photoanodes and their ability to drive photoelectrochemical water oxidation, alongside wider comparison with metal oxide function in photocatalytic and electrocatalytic systems. We start by highlighting the disparity between the ps–ns lifetimes of electron and holes photoexcited in bulk metal oxides versus the ms –s timescale of water oxidation catalysis. We go onto review recent literature of the dominant kinetic processes determining photoanode performance, namely charge generation, polaron formation and charge trapping, bulk and surface recombination, charge separation and extraction, and finally the kinetics of water oxidation catalysis. With each topic, we review current understanding and note areas of remaining uncertainty or controversy. We discuss the potential for material selection and examine approaches such as doping, nanostructuring, junction formation and/or co-catalyst deposition to enhance performance. Critically, we examine how such performance enhancements can be understood from analyses of carrier dynamics and propose design guidelines for further material or device optimisation.
  • Journal article
    Bozal-Ginesta C, Rao RR, Mesa CA, Liu X, Hillman SAJ, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2021,

    Redox-state kinetics in water-oxidation IrOx electrocatalysts measured by operando spectroelectrochemistry

    , ACS Catalysis, Vol: 11, Pages: 15013-15025, ISSN: 2155-5435

    Hydrous iridium oxides (IrOx) are the best oxygen evolution electrocatalysts available for operation in acidic environments. In this study, we employ time-resolved operando spectroelectrochemistry to investigate the redox-state kinetics of IrOx electrocatalyst films for both water and hydrogen peroxide oxidation. Three different redox species involving Ir3+, Ir3.x+, Ir4+, and Ir4.y+ are identified spectroscopically, and their concentrations are quantified as a function of applied potential. The generation of Ir4.y+ states is found to be the potential-determining step for catalytic water oxidation, while H2O2 oxidation is observed to be driven by the generation of Ir4+ states. The reaction kinetics for water oxidation, determined from the optical signal decays at open circuit, accelerates from ∼20 to <0.5 s with increasing applied potential above 1.3 V versus reversible hydrogen electrode [i.e., turnover frequencies (TOFs) per active Ir state increasing from 0.05 to 2 s–1]. In contrast, the reaction kinetics for H2O2 is found to be almost independent of the applied potential (increasing from 0.1 to 0.3 s–1 over a wider potential window), indicative of a first-order reaction mechanism. These spectroelectrochemical data quantify the increase of both the density of active Ir4.y+ states and the TOFs of these states with applied positive potential, resulting in the observed sharp turn on of catalytic water oxidation current. We reconcile these data with the broader literature while providing a unique kinetic insight into IrOx electrocatalytic reaction mechanisms, indicating a first-order reaction mechanism for H2O2 oxidation driven by Ir4+ states and a higher-order reaction mechanism involving the cooperative interaction of multiple Ir4.y+ states for water oxidation.
  • Journal article
    Stevenson S, Collins A, Jennings N, Koberle AC, Laumann F, Laverty AA, Vineis P, Woods J, Gambhir Aet al., 2021,

    A hybrid approach to identifying and assessing interactions between climate action (SDG13) policies and a range of SDGs in a UK context (vol 2, 43, 2021)

    , DISCOVER SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 2
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2021,

    Recent tropical cyclone changes inferred from ocean surface temperature cold wakes

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2045-2322

    It has been challenging to detect trends of tropical cyclone (TC) properties due to temporal heterogeneities and short duration of the direct observations. TCs impact the ocean surface temperature by creating cold wakes as a “fingerprint”. Here we infer changes of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), size and integrated kinetic energy from the cold wakes for the period 1982–2019. We find a globally enhanced local cold wake amplitude 3 days after the LMI of − 0.12 ± 0.04 °C per decade whereas the cold wake size does not show any significant change. Multivariate regression models based on the observed ocean cooling, the TC translation speed and the ocean mixed layer depth are applied to infer LMI and TC size. The inferred annual mean global LMI has increased by 1.0 ± 0.7 m s−1 per decade. This inferred trend is between that found for two directly observed data sets. However, the TC size and the TC destructive potential measured by the integrated kinetic energy, have not altered significantly. This analysis provides new independent and indirect evidence of recent TC LMI increases, but a stable size and integrated kinetic energy.
  • Journal article
    Elvis Cao X, Hong T, Hong S, Erickson Det al., 2021,

    Engineering waveguide surface by gradient etching for uniform light scattering in photocatalytic applications

    , Chemical Engineering Journal Advances, Vol: 8

    In photoreactors, non-uniform light distribution leads to regions either with an overabundance of light or insufficient light irradiation. The integration of light-guiding elements such as waveguides into photocatalytic reactors has been an emerging approach to improve light delivery. However, traditional waveguides with constant surface properties experience an exponential decay in scattering light intensity under side irradiation. This reduces the light propagation length and hinders the scale-up potential. In this work, we derive the relationship between attenuation coefficients with etching time, determine the correlation between etching time and waveguide location for uniform scattering, and experimentally validate different light scattering profiles by engineering the surface roughness distribution of waveguides. We apply a dimensionless number, the coefficient of variation, to characterize the relative light distribution uniformity for gradient-etched, uniform-etched, and unmodified waveguides. Scattering light uniformity via gradient etching is more than 13 times higher than that for uniform-etching. In addition, the light distribution for gradient etching exhibits improved uniformity than other approaches, such as tip coating, physical carving, and engineered pillars. We then evaluate the effect of different light scattering profiles on photocatalytic activities in a photodegradation test for methylene blue, with non-etched, uniform-etched, and gradient-etched waveguides serving as internal light-guiding elements. Gradient-etched waveguides show ∼4 times improvement in photodegradation activity over uniform-etched designs and ∼8 times over non-etched configurations. This result underscores gradient etching for waveguides as a viable approach for precision light delivery to increase the light distribution uniformity, thus enhancing reaction rates for photocatalytic reactors.
  • Journal article
    Crisan D, Holm DD, Street OD, 2021,

    Wave-current interaction on a free surface

    , STUDIES IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS, Vol: 147, Pages: 1277-1338, ISSN: 0022-2526
  • Journal article
    Brondizio ES, Lemos MC, Guan D, Jennings N, Mbow C, Nagendra H, Tschakert Pet al., 2021,

    Global Environmental Change: 30 years of interdisciplinary research on the human and policy dimensions of environmental change

    , Global Environmental Change, Vol: 71, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 0959-3780
  • Journal article
    Berrang-Ford L, Siders AR, Lesnikowski A, Fischer AP, Callaghan MW, Haddaway NR, Mach KJ, Araos M, Shah MAR, Wannewitz M, Doshi D, Leiter T, Matavel C, Musah-Surugu JI, Wong-Parodi G, Antwi-Agyei P, Ajibade I, Chauhan N, Kakenmaster W, Grady C, Chalastani V, Jagannathan K, Galappaththi EK, Sitati A, Scarpa G, Totin E, Davis K, Hamilton NC, Kirchhoff CJ, Kumar P, Pentz B, Simpson NP, Theokritoff E, Deryng D, Reckien D, Zavaleta-Cortijo C, Ulibarri N, Segnon AC, Khavhagali V, Shang Y, Zvobgo L, Zommers Z, Xu J, Williams PA, Canosa IV, van Maanen N, van Bavel B, van Aalst M, Turek-Hankins LL, Trivedi H, Trisos CH, Thomas A, Thakur S, Templeman S, Stringer LC, Sotnik G, Sjostrom KD, Singh C, Sina MZ, Shukla R, Sardans J, Salubi EA, Chalkasra LSS, Ruiz-Diaz R, Richards C, Pokharel P, Petzold J, Penuelas J, Avila JP, Murillo JBP, Ouni S, Niemann J, Nielsen M, New M, Schwerdtle PN, Alverio GN, Mullin CA, Mullenite J, Mosurska A, Morecroft MD, Minx JC, Maskell G, Nunbogu AM, Magnan AK, Lwasa S, Lukas-Sithole M, Lissner T, Lilford O, Koller SF, Jurjonas M, Joe ET, Huynh LTM, Hill A, Hernandez RR, Hegde G, Hawxwell T, Harper S, Harden A, Haasnoot M, Gilmore EA, Gichuki L, Gatt A, Garschagen M, Ford JD, Forbes A, Farrell AD, Enquist CAF, Elliott S, Duncan E, de Perez EC, Coggins S, Chen T, Campbell D, Browne KE, Bowen KJ, Biesbroek R, Bhatt ID, Kerr RB, Barr SL, Baker E, Austin SE, Arotoma-Rojas I, Anderson C, Ajaz W, Agrawal T, Abu TZet al., 2021,

    A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change

    , NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 11, Pages: 989-+, ISSN: 1758-678X
    • Cite
    • Citations: 357
  • Journal article
    Thomas A, Theokritoff E, 2021,

    Debt-for-climate swaps for small islands

    , NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 11, Pages: 889-891, ISSN: 1758-678X
  • Journal article
    Callaghan M, Schleussner C-F, Nath S, Lejeune Q, Knutson TR, Reichstein M, Hansen G, Theokritoff E, Andrijevic M, Brecha RJ, Hegarty M, Jones C, Lee K, Lucas A, van Maanen N, Menke I, Pfleiderer P, Yesil B, Minx JCet al., 2021,

    Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies

    , NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol: 11, Pages: 966-+, ISSN: 1758-678X
  • Journal article
    Huang B, Rao RR, You S, Myint KH, Song Y, Wang Y, Ding W, Giordano L, Zhang Y, Wang T, Muy S, Katayama Y, Grossman JC, Willard AP, Xu K, Jiang Y, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2021,

    Cation- and pH-Dependent Hydrogen Evolution and Oxidation Reaction Kinetics

    , JACS AU, Vol: 1, Pages: 1674-1687
    • Cite
    • Citations: 237
  • Report
    Pearce D, Pearce A, Gambhir A, Nelson J, Gilbert A, Rhodes A, Bhugobaun Ret al., 2021,

    Research pathways for net-zero transport

    The future is uncertain and there are many different pathways ahead for technology and society. Some, but not all, ofthese pathways will deliver the required amount of decarbonisation to comply with the Paris Agreement. Whilst wecannot know for certain which of these pathways will be chosen, research allows us both to identify the patterns andtrends that can help shape the pathways, and ultimately our future, and to develop the technologies and approachesthat can assist decarbonisation
  • Journal article
    Ducimetiere Y-M, Gallaire F, Lefauve A, Caulfield C-CPet al., 2021,

    Effects of spanwise confinement on stratified shear instabilities

    , PHYSICAL REVIEW FLUIDS, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2469-990X
  • Report
    Chastin S, Jennings N, Toney J, Diaz Anadon L, Smith Pet al., 2021,

    Co-benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions

    , Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Actions
  • Report
    Trask A, Wills K, Green T, Staffell I, Auvermann O, Coutellier Q, Muuls M, Hardy J, Morales Rodriguez D, Martin R, Sivakumar A, Pawlak J, Faghih Imani SA, Strbac G, Badesa Bernardo Let al., 2021,

    Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy System

    , Impacts of COVID-19 on the Energy System

    This Briefing Paper explores the impactthe COVID-19 pandemic had on the UK’senergy sector over the course of thefirst government-mandated nationallockdown that began on 23 March 2020.Research from several aspects of theIntegrated Development of Low-carbonEnergy Systems (IDLES) programme atImperial College London is presented inone overarching paper. The main aim isto determine what lessons can be learntfrom that lockdown period, given theunique set of challenges it presented inour daily lives and the changes it broughtabout in energy demand, supply, anduse. Valuable insights are gained intohow working-from-home policies,electric vehicles, and low-carbon gridscan be implemented, incentivised, andmanaged effectively.

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