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  • Journal article
    Lok CCF, Chan JCL, Toumi R, 2021,

    Tropical cyclones near landfall can induce their own intensification through feedbacks on radiative forcing

    , Communications Earth & Environment, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2662-4435

    Rapid intensification of near-landfall tropical cyclones is very difficult to predict, and yet has far-reaching consequences due to their disastrous impact to the coastal areas. The focus for improving predictions of rapid intensification has so far been on environmental conditions. Here we use the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System to simulate tropical cyclones making landfall in South China: Nida (2016), Hato (2107) and Mangkhut (2018). Two smaller storms (Hato and Nida) undergo intensification, which is induced by the storms themselves through their extensive subsidence ahead of the storms, leading to clear skies and strong solar heating of the near-shore sea water over a shallow continental shelf. This heating provides latent heat to the storms, and subsequently intensification occurs. In contrast, such heating does not occur in the larger storm (Mangkhut) due to its widespread cloud cover. This results imply that to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity changes prior to landfall, it is necessary to correctly simulate the short-term evolution of near-shore ocean conditions.
  • Journal article
    Cao XE, De Luna P, 2021,

    Why we need scientists to make sustainable policies.

    , Matter, Vol: 4, Pages: 2690-2693

    The COVID-19 pandemic taught us the importance of having scientists in public health policymaking. As with the pandemic, humanity faces another crisis at a greater scale: global climate change. Here, two carbontech researchers and Forbes 30 Under 30 honorees reflect on their unique paths toward influencing sustainable policies in government and international organizations. They reason that science advice is often ignored by governments and that we need more STEM scientists in sustainability policymaking. They also offer their advice to other young scientists who are looking to make an impact beyond academia.
  • Journal article
    Thomas A, Theokritoff E, Lesnikowski A, Reckien D, Jagannathan K, Cremades R, Campbell D, Joe ET, Sitati A, Singh C, Segnon AC, Pentz B, Musah-Surugu JI, Mullin CA, Mach KJ, Gichuki L, Galappaththi E, Chalastani VI, Ajibade I, Ruiz-Diaz R, Grady C, Garschagen M, Ford J, Bowen Ket al., 2021,

    Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation

    , REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1436-3798
    • Cite
    • Citations: 83
  • Journal article
    Wang T, Zhang Y, Huang B, Cai B, Rao RR, Giordano L, Sun S-G, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2021,

    Enhancing oxygen reduction electrocatalysis by tuning interfacial hydrogen bonds

    , NATURE CATALYSIS, Vol: 4, Pages: 753-762, ISSN: 2520-1158
    • Cite
    • Citations: 280
  • Journal article
    Tsui EYL, Toumi R, 2021,

    Hurricanes as an enabler of Amazon fires

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 2045-2322

    A teleconnection between North Atlantic tropical storms and Amazon fires is investigated as a possible case of compound remote extreme events. The seasonal cycles of the storms and fires are in phase with a maximum around September and have significant inter-annual correlation. Years of high Amazon fire activity are associated with atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic which favour tropical cyclones. We propose that anomalous precipitation and latent heating in the Caribbean, partly caused by tropical storms, leads to a thermal circulation response which creates anomalous subsidence and enhances surface solar heating over the Amazon. The Caribbean storms and precipitation anomalies could thus promote favourable atmospheric conditions for Amazon fire.
  • Report
    Ainalis D, Bardhan R, Bell K, Cebon D, Czerniak M, Doyne Farmer J, Fitzgerland S, Galkowski K, Grimshaw S, Harper G, Hunt H, Jennings N, Keshav S, Mackie E, Maroto-Valer M, Michalopoulou E, Reay D, Seddon N, Smith SM, Smith T, Simpson K, Stranks SD, Tennyson EM, Uekert T, Vera-Morales M, Woodcock Jet al., 2021,

    Net-zero solutions and research priorities in the 2020s

    , Net-Zero Solutions and Research Priorities in the 2020s

    Key messages• Technological, societal and nature-based solutions should work together to enable systemic change towards a regenerative society, and to deliver net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.• Prioritise research into efficient, low-carbon and carbon-negative solutions for sectors that are difficult to decarbonise; i.e. energy storage, road transport, shipping, aviation and grid infrastructure.• Each solution should be assessed with respect to GHG emissions reductions, energy efficiency and societal implications to provide a basis for developing long-term policies, maximising positive impact of investment and research effort, and guiding industry investors in safe and responsible planning.
  • Journal article
    Hwang J, Rao RR, Giordano L, Akkiraju K, Wang XR, Crumlin EJ, Bluhm H, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2021,

    Regulating oxygen activity of perovskites to promote NO<i><sub>x</sub></i> oxidation and reduction kinetics

    , NATURE CATALYSIS, Vol: 4, Pages: 663-673, ISSN: 2520-1158
    • Cite
    • Citations: 118
  • Journal article
    Armstrong K, Bachmann M, Bardow A, Cao XE, Cassiola F, Cummings C, Dowson G, Kamali AR, Leitner W, Manyar H, McCord S, North M, Pant D, Park A-HA, Pérez-Fortes M, Platt E, Poon J, Ramírez A, Sick V, Styring P, Tanzer SE, Tanveer W, Thomas O, Whiston Ket al., 2021,

    Life cycle and upscaling: general discussion.

    , Faraday Discuss, Vol: 230, Pages: 308-330
  • Journal article
    Armstrong K, Bardow A, Cao XE, Cassiola F, Fischer N, Hills C, Kamali AR, Kerr J, Khan S, Leitner W, Madhav D, Manyar H, McCord S, Pant D, Park A-HA, Poon J, Ramirez A, Sick V, Styring P, Tanzer SE, Tripathi N, Whiston Ket al., 2021,

    Accelerated mineralisation: general discussion.

    , Faraday Discuss, Vol: 230, Pages: 213-226
  • Journal article
    Armstrong K, Barbarino S, Cao XE, Cassiola F, Catlow RA, Claeys M, Conway M, Cowan AJ, de Leeuw NH, Dowson GRM, Fischer N, Ghaderian A, Ghosh S, Kamali AR, Khan S, Kyrimis S, Lawes N, Leitner W, Maneiro M, Manyar H, Marquart W, McCord S, Moore E, North M, Olsbye U, Pant D, Poon J, Quesne MG, Ranocchiari M, Rossi L, Ruiz Esquius J, Shozi M, Sick V, Styring P, Tan J, Tanzer SE, Thomas O, Whiston K, Wolf Met al., 2021,

    Thermal catalytic conversion: general discussion.

    , Faraday Discuss, Vol: 230, Pages: 124-151
  • Journal article
    Bardow A, Bizzarri C, Cao XE, Cowan AJ, Cummings C, Del Angel Hernandez V, Doan H, Dowson G, Ghosh S, Gil V, Gugujonovic K, Kamali AR, König M, Leitner W, Luo J, Madhav D, Maneiro M, Manyar H, McCord S, Moore E, North M, Pant D, Perry S, Poon J, Rossi L, Ruiz Esquius J, Schreiber M, Shozi M, Sick V, Styring P, Tanveer W, Thomas O, Whiston K, Yu Eet al., 2021,

    Emerging technologies: general discussion.

    , Faraday Discuss, Vol: 230, Pages: 388-412
  • Journal article
    Ke Q, Yin J, Bricker JD, Savage N, Buonomo E, Ye Q, Visser P, Dong G, Wang S, Tian Z, Sun L, Toumi R, Jonkman SNet al., 2021,

    Correction to: An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai

    , Natural Hazards, Vol: 109, Pages: 705-706, ISSN: 0921-030X

    This correction stands to support the update of the original article originally published without co-corresponding attribution to Zhan Tian. The original article has been corrected.https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04853-z The Spiral record for original article is: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/115050
  • Journal article
    Chang S, Zou Z, Liu J, Isac M, Cao XE, Su X, Guthrie RILet al., 2021,

    Study on the slag-metal interfacial behavior under the impact of bubbles in different sizes

    , Powder Technology, Vol: 387, Pages: 125-135, ISSN: 0032-5910

    A novel ladle shroud was employed to produce small bubbles to remove inclusions smaller than 50 μm meanwhile inhibiting the formation of slag eye. Both water modeling and industrial tests were carried out to confirm the generation of small bubbles with the ladle shroud. The numerical model was developed to investigate slag-metal interfacial behaviors, considering the effects of bubble sizes and distributions. The gas flux through the surface was employed to evaluate the impact of bubble swarm on slag layer. The results show that reducing bubble sizes can effectively disperse bubbles passing through the slag layer, so as to inhibit the formation of slag eye, under the same gas flow rate. The diameter of slag eye matches well 1.7 times diameter of the region with gas flux higher than 0.0025 m/s. The heat loss of the entire tundish was estimated, considering the convection and radiation heat transfer of slag eye.
  • Journal article
    Folly CL, Konstantinoudis G, Mazzei-Abba A, Kreis C, Bucher B, Furrer R, Spycher BDet al., 2021,

    Bayesian spatial modelling of terrestrial radiation in Switzerland

    , JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY, Vol: 233, ISSN: 0265-931X
  • Journal article
    Lupatsch JE, Kreis C, Konstantinoudis G, Ansari M, Kuehni CE, Spycher BDet al., 2021,

    Birth characteristics and childhood leukemia in Switzerland: a register-based case-control study

    , CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL, Vol: 32, Pages: 713-723, ISSN: 0957-5243
    • Cite
    • Citations: 10
  • Journal article
    Dhokotera T, Bartels L, Rohrer E, Chammartin F, Johnson L, Singh E, Olago V, Sengayi-Muchengeti M, Egger M, Bohlius J, Konstantinoudis Get al., 2021,

    Spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of cervical cancer incidence among HIV positive women in South Africa: a nationwide study

    , International Journal of Health Geographics, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1476-072X

    BackgroundDisparities in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence exist globally, particularly in HIV positive women who are at elevated risk compared to HIV negative women. We aimed to determine the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal incidence of ICC and the potential risk factors among HIV positive women in South Africa.MethodsWe included ICC cases in women diagnosed with HIV from the South African HIV cancer match study during 2004–2014. We used the Thembisa model, a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic to estimate women diagnosed with HIV per municipality, age group and calendar year. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical models, using a reparameterization of the Besag-York-Mollié to capture spatial autocorrelation, to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of ICC incidence among women diagnosed with HIV. We also examined the association of deprivation, access to health (using the number of health facilities per municipality) and urbanicity with ICC incidence. We corrected our estimates to account for ICC case underascertainment, missing data and data errors.ResultsWe included 17,821 ICC cases and demonstrated a decreasing trend in ICC incidence, from 306 to 312 in 2004 and from 160 to 191 in 2014 per 100,000 person-years across all municipalities and corrections. The spatial relative rate (RR) ranged from 0.27 to 4.43 in the model without any covariates. In the model adjusting for covariates, the most affluent municipalities had a RR of 3.18 (95% Credible Interval 1.82, 5.57) compared to the least affluent ones, and municipalities with better access to health care had a RR of 1.52 (1.03, 2.27) compared to municipalities with worse access to health.ConclusionsThe results show an increased incidence of cervical cancer in affluent municipalities and in those with more health facilities. This is likely driven by better access to health care in more affluent areas. More efforts should be made to ensure equitable access to health services
  • Report
    Aunedi M, Wills K, Green T, Strbac Get al., 2021,

    Net-zero GB electricity: cost-optimal generation and storage mix

    , Great Britain's electricity generation capacity mix for net-zero carbon emissions, Publisher: Energy Futures Lab
  • Journal article
    Bucci A, Garcia-Tecedor M, Corby S, Rao RR, Martin-Diaconescu V, Oropeza FE, de la Pena O'Shea VA, Durrant JR, Gimenez S, Lloret-Fillol Jet al., 2021,

    Self-supported ultra-active NiO-based electrocatalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction by solution combustion

    , JOURNAL OF MATERIALS CHEMISTRY A, Vol: 9, Pages: 12700-12710, ISSN: 2050-7488
    • Cite
    • Citations: 29
  • Report
    Lawrance E, Thompson R, Fontana G, Jennings Net al., 2021,

    The impact of climate change on mental health and emotional wellbeing: current evidence and implications for policy and practice
  • Journal article
    Yin Z, Chen B, Cao XE, Ying B, Quan H, Wang C, Ye Y, Mi X, Yan C, Ding Y, Zhang S, Bahmani A, Dalaq A, Li X, Shang X, Nan K, Yang Yet al., 2021,

    Young martlets: Exploring the world of academia and beyond

    , Matter, Vol: 4, Pages: 1434-1436, ISSN: 2590-2393

    The Martlets Society (www.martlets-society.com) is an independent non-profit organization found and run by young scholars. It aims to build a free and equal community for young scholars to build connections and have interdisciplinary exchanges. It currently holds talks and events with diverse topics to show young scholars the world of academia and beyond. It is also planning more events for the equality in education and academia.
  • Journal article
    Ojeda AS, Zheng J, Phillips E, Sherwood Lollar Bet al., 2021,

    Implications of regression bias for multi-element isotope analysis for environmental remediation.

    , Talanta, Vol: 226

    Measuring changes in the stable isotope ratios of multiple elements (e.g. Δδ13C, Δδ37Cl, and Δδ2H) during the (bio)transformation of environmental contaminants has provided new insights into reaction mechanisms and tools to optimize remediation efforts. Dual-isotope analysis, wherein changes in one isotopic system are plotted against another (to derive an interpretational parameter expressed as Λ), is a key tool in multi-element isotopic assessment. To date, most dual-isotope analyses use ordinary linear regression (OLR) for the calculation, which can be subject to regression attenuation and thus an inherent artifact that depresses slope values, expressed as Λ. Here, a series of Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to represent common data conditions and variations within dual-isotope data to test the degree of bias when deriving Λ using OLR compared to an alternative regression technique, the York method. The degree of bias was quantified compared to the modeled or "true" Λ value. For all simulations, the York method provided the least bias in slope estimates (<1%) over all data conditions tested. In contrast, OLR produced unbiased estimates only under a limited set of conditions, which was validated through a mathematical model proof. Both the mathematical model and simulations show that bias of at least 5% in OLR occurs when the extent of enrichment in the x-variable (XM) is equal to or less than ≈15 times the 1σ precision in the isotope measurement (σX), for both Cl/C and C/H plots. The results give practitioners tools to evaluate whether bias is present in data and to estimate the extent to which this negatively impacts the interpretations and predictions of remediation potential for new and previously published datasets. This study demonstrates that integration of such robust statistical tools is essential for dual-isotope interpretations widely used in contamina
  • Journal article
    Phillipson L, Li Y, Toumi R, 2021,

    Strongly coupled assimilation of a hypothetical ocean current observing network within a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model: an OSSE case study of typhoon hato

    , Monthly Weather Review, Vol: 149, Pages: 1317-1336, ISSN: 0027-0644

    The forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is a significant challenge. In this study, we showcase the impact of strongly coupled data assimilation with hypothetical ocean currents on analyses and forecasts of Typhoon Hato (2017). Several observation simulation system experiments (OSSE) were undertaken with a regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model. We assimilated combinations of (or individually) a hypothetical coastal current HF radar network, a dense array of drifter floats, and minimum sea level pressure. During the assimilation, instant updates of many important atmospheric variables (winds and pressure) are achieved from the assimilation of ocean current observations using the cross-domain error covariance, significantly improving the track and intensity analysis of Typhoon Hato. Relative to a control experiment (with no assimilation), the error of minimum pressure decreased by up to 13 hPa (4 hPa/57% on average). The maximum wind speed error decreased by up to 18 kt (5 kt/41% on average) (1 kt ≈ 0.5 m s−1). By contrast, weakly coupled implementations cannot match these reductions (10% on average). Although traditional atmospheric observations were not assimilated, such improvements indicate that there is considerable potential in assimilating ocean currents from coastal HF radar and surface drifters within a strongly coupled framework for intense landfalling TCs.
  • Journal article
    Konstantinoudis G, Padellini T, Bennett J, Davies B, Ezzati M, Blangiardo Met al., 2021,

    Response to "re: long-term exposure to air-pollution and COVID-19 mortality in England: a hierarchical spatial analysis"

    , Environment International, Vol: 150, ISSN: 0160-4120
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Huang B, Katayama Y, Hwang J, Kawaguchi T, Lunger JR, Peng J, Zhang Y, Morinaga A, Zhou H, You H, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2021,

    pH- and Cation-Dependent Water Oxidation on Rutile RuO<sub>2</sub>(110)

    , JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 125, Pages: 8195-8207, ISSN: 1932-7447
    • Cite
    • Citations: 96
  • Journal article
    Smith M, Toumi R, 2021,

    Using video recognition to identify tropical cyclone positions

    , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 48, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276

    Tropical cyclone (TC) center fixing is a challenge for improving forecasting and establishing TC climatologies. We propose a novel objective solution through the use of video recognition algorithms. The videos of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific are of sequential, hourly, geostationary satellite infrared (IR) images. A variety of convolutional neural network architectures are tested. The best performing network implements convolutional layers, a convolutional long short-term memory layer, and fully connected layers. Cloud features rotating around a center are effectively captured in this video-based technique. Networks trained with long-wave IR channels outperform a water vapor channel-based network. The average position across the two IR networks has a 19.3 km median error across all intensities. This equates to a 42% lower error over a baseline technique. This video-based method combined with the high geostationary satellite sampling rate can provide rapid and accurate automated updates of TC centers.
  • Journal article
    Carmichael R, Gross R, Hanna R, Rhodes A, Green Tet al., 2021,

    The Demand Response Technology Cluster: accelerating UK residential consumer engagement with time-of-use tariffs, electric vehicles and smart meters via digital comparison tools

    , Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 139, ISSN: 1364-0321

    Cost-effectively decarbonising the power sector and household energy use using variable renewable energy will require that electricity consumption becomes much more flexible and responsive to constraints in supply and the distribution network. In recent years residential demand response (DR) has received increasing attention that has sought to answer, based on current evidence, questions about how much consumers will engage with DR. This paper critically reviews the evidence base for residential consumer engagement with DR and draws out several important limitations in it. We argue for a more action- oriented focus on developing practical strategies to enable and unlock greater loadshifting and consumer engagement with DR within a changing technology and regulatory context. A number of recommendations are put forward for accelerating UK consumer engagement with DR, presented under three broad strategies: (a) promote awareness of smart tariffs, smart meters and storage and automation behind-the-meter devices as mutually-supportive components within a common ‘DR technology cluster’; (b) deliver targeted support for adoption of electric vehicles and other storage and automation technologies; (c) enable and support informed adoption of DR-enabling products and services through ‘smarter’ digital comparison tools (DCTs), data portability, and faster, simpler switching. The interdependency between components within this DR technology cluster delivers efficiency but also poses a risk that one delayed component (e.g., smart metering) will hold-up policy and industry support for other components. The urgency of decarbonisation goals makes it necessary to push forward as many of these elements as possible rather than the pace being set by the slowest.
  • Journal article
    Toumi R, 2021,

    100 Years of meteorology at Imperial College

    , Weather, Vol: 76, Pages: 119-119, ISSN: 0043-1656
  • Journal article
    Huang B, Myint KH, Wang Y, Zhang Y, Rao RR, Sun J, Muy S, Katayama Y, Garcia JC, Fraggedakis D, Grossman JC, Bazant MZ, Xu K, Willard AP, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2021,

    Cation-Dependent Interfacial Structures and Kinetics for Outer-Sphere Electron-Transfer Reactions

    , JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 125, Pages: 4397-4411, ISSN: 1932-7447
    • Cite
    • Citations: 66
  • Report
    Carmichael RICHARD, Halttunen KRISTA, Palazzo Corner SOFIA, Rhodes AIDANet al., 2021,

    Paying for UK Net Zero: principles for a cost-effective and fair transition
  • Journal article
    Street OD, Crisan D, 2021,

    Semi-martingale driven variational principles

    , Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol: 477, ISSN: 1364-5021

    Spearheaded by the recent efforts to derive stochastic geophysical fluid dynamics models, we present a general framework for introducing stochasticity into variational principles through the concept of a semi-martingale driven variational principle and constraining the component variables to be compatible with the driving semi-martingale. Within this framework and the corresponding choice of constraints, the Euler-Poincaré equation can be easily deduced. We show that the deterministic theory is a special case of this class of stochastic variational principles. Moreover, this is a natural framework that enables us to correctly characterize the pressure term in incompressible stochastic fluid models. Other general constraints can also be incorporated as long as they are compatible with the driving semi-martingale.

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