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• Journal article
  Li M, Toumi R, 2024,

  On the temporal decay of tropical cyclones over the ocean

  , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276

  It is important to understand how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay over the ocean as this is a criticalpre‐landfall stage. A modified exponential decay model (β model) with two parameters α and β is proposed. Thescale parameter α defines the decay scale, while the shape parameter β determines whether the decay ratedecelerates or accelerates over time. Global fittings indicate that around 40% of TCs exhibit decelerating decay(β≤1), while the majority (about 60%) show accelerating decay (β>1). Correlation analysis reveals a strongnegative correlation between the scale parameter α and the initial Coriolis parameter (r = − 0.96) and a positivecorrelation between the shape parameter β and the meridional component of the initial translation velocity(r = 0.75). The β model provides a comprehensive understanding of how TCs decay with time and howenvironmental conditions affect the decay scale and evolution.

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• Report
  Merz N, Clarke B, Basconcillo J, Barnes C, Sparks N, Vahlberg M, Otto F, Philip S, Kew S, Pinto I, Singh R, Rances Aet al., 2024,

  Climate change supercharged late typhoon season in the Philippines, highlighting the need for resilience to consecutive events

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• Journal article
  Bozigar M, Konstantinoudis G, Vieira CLZ, Li L, Alwadi Y, Jones RR, Koutrakis Pet al., 2024,

  Domestic radon exposure and childhood cancer risk by site and sex in 727 counties in the United States, 2001-2018

  , SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, Vol: 954, ISSN: 0048-9697
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• Journal article
  Savage T, del Rio Chanona A, Oluleye G, 2024,

  Assessing robust policies for the adoption of low-carbon technologies under uncertainty

  , Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 482, ISSN: 0959-6526

  Increasing the adoption of alternative technologies is vital to ensure a successful transition to net-zero emissions in the manufacturing sector. However, existing models are limited in their ability to analyse technology adoption and the impact of policy interventions in generating sufficient demand to reduce cost in the face of uncertainty. Such a model is vital for assessing policy-instruments for the implementation of future uncertain energy scenarios. We formulate a novel robust market potential assessment problem under uncertainty to support low carbon technology adoption, resulting in policies that are more immune to uncertain factors. We demonstrate two case studies: the potential use of carbon capture and storage for iron and steel production across the EU, and the transition to hydrogen from natural gas in steam boilers across the chemicals industry in the UK. We show that when parameters are jointly 5% uncertain, the robust policy for CCUS adoption results in a 40% increase in cost. Each robust optimisation problem is solved using an iterative cutting planes algorithm which enables existing models to be solved under uncertainty. By taking advantage of parallelisation we are able to solve the nonlinear robust market assessment problem for technology adoption in times within the same order of magnitude as the nominal problem. Our model demonstrates the possibility of locating robust policies for the implementation of low-carbon technologies, as well as providing direct insights for policy-makers into the decrease in policy effectiveness that results from increasing robustness. The approach we present is extensible to a large number of alternative technology adoption problems under uncertainty.

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• Journal article
  Thomas A, Theokritoff E, 2024,

  Adaptation constraints, limits and enabling conditions in small island developing states

  , CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, Vol: 71, ISSN: 1877-3435
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• Journal article
  Vineis P, Mangone L, Belesova K, Tonne C, Alfano R, Strapasson A, Millett C, Jennings N, Woods J, Mwabonje Oet al., 2024,

  Integration of multiple climate change mitigation actions and health co-benefits: a framework using the Global Calculator

  , Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol: 132, ISSN: 0091-6765

  Background:The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world’s energy, land, and food systems. It is a pioneering online calculator to project the impact of interventions to mitigate climate change on global temperature. A few studies have been conducted to evaluate the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation, though they are still fragmentary.Objectives:Our objectives are to identify which sectors could yield the greatest results in terms of climate change mitigation and suggest whether existing evidence could be used to weight mitigation actions based on their ancillary impacts on human health or health co-benefits.Methods:Using the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4DS scenario as a referent (i.e., the “4-degree Celsius increase scenario”), we simulated changes in different policy “levers” (encompassing 43 potential technological and behavioral interventions, grouped by 14 sectors) and assessed the relative importance of each lever in terms of changes in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and cumulative emissions by 2100. In addition, we examined existing estimates for the health co-benefits associated with different interventions, using evidence from the Lancet Pathfinder and four other tools.Discussion:Our simulations suggest that—after accounting for demographic change—transition from fossil fuels to renewables and changes in agriculture, forestry, land use, and food production are key sectors for climate change mitigation. The role of interventions in other sectors, like carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power, is more modest. Our work also identifies mitigation actions that are likely to have large health co-benefits, including shifts to renewable energy and changes in land use as well as dietary and travel behaviors. In conclusion, some of the sectors/interventions which have been at the center of policy debate (e.g., CCS or nuclear power) are likely to be far less important than chan

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• Working paper
  Rogelj J, Lamboll R, Jennifer B, 2024,

  Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels

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• Working paper
  Bird J, Hope G, Smith S, Westbury Pet al., 2024,

  Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

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• Report
  Otto F, Clarke B, Barnes C, Kimutai J, Zachariah M, Merz N, Vrkic D, Philip S, Kew S, Pinto I, Vahlberg M, Singh R, Horne Z, Arrighi J, Sparks N, Giguere J, Gilford Det al., 2024,

  10 years of rapidly disentangling drivers of extreme weather disasters

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• Journal article
  Holm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,

  Deterministic and stochastic geometric mechanics for Hall magnetohydrodynamics

  , PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, Vol: 480, ISSN: 1364-5021
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• Report
  Pinto I, Clarke B, Philip S, Kew S, Vahlberg M, Horne Z, Singh R, Musa AII, Farah R, Mostafa AN, Otto F, Barnes C, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

  Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change

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• Working paper
  Foster V, Brandmayr C, 2024,

  Transitioning away from fossil fuels: delivering the transition in low- and lower middle-income fossil fuel producing countries

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• Working paper
  Jennings N, Lawrance E, Dorigatti I, 2024,

  How does climate change affect people's health in the UK?

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• Working paper
  Popovic I, 2024,

  Spotlight on COP29: scaling up private climate finance in developing countries

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• Working paper
  Theokritoff E, 2024,

  Can we adapt to all current and future climate impacts?

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• Working paper
  Bakkaloglu S, Rogelj J, Lamboll R, 2024,

  Methane and global climate goals

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Jha R, Mondal A, Rauniyar S, Vahlberg M, Kayastha B, Raju E, Baumgart N, Saeed F, Otto F, Philip S, Kew S, Sah N, Singh R, Dhakal M, Arrighi J, Uprety M, Mani PA, Adhikari P, Regmi Aet al., 2024,

  Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

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• Working paper
  Khourdajie AA, Bataille C, Bird J, 2024,

  Phasing out 'unabated fossil fuels': the importance of defining 'abatement'

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• Journal article
  Schleussner C-F, Ganti G, Lejeune Q, Zhu B, Pfleiderer P, Pruetz R, Ciais P, Froelicher TL, Fuss S, Gasser T, Gidden MJ, Kropf CM, Lacroix F, Lamboll R, Martyr R, Maussion F, McCaughey JW, Meinshausen M, Mengel M, Nicholls Z, Quilcaille Y, Sanderson B, Seneviratne SI, Sillmann J, Smith CJ, Steinert NJ, Theokritoff E, Warren R, Price J, Rogelj Jet al., 2024,

  Overconfidence in climate overshoot

  , Nature, Vol: 634, Pages: 366-373, ISSN: 0028-0836

  Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.

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• Report
  Clarke B, Barnes C, Sparks N, Toumi R, Yang W, Giguere J, Woods Placky B, Gilford D, Pershing A, Winkley S, Vecchi GA, Arrighi J, Roy M, Poole-Selters L, Van Sant C, Grieco M, Singh R, Vahlberg M, Kew S, Pinto I, Otto F, Hess V, Gorham E, Rodgers S, Philip S, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

  Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities

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• Journal article
  Lefauve A, 2024,

  Geophysical stratified turbulence and mixing in the laboratory

  , Comptes Rendus. Physique, Vol: 25, Pages: 1-29
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• Report
  Iqbal M, 2024,

  Fusion Before 2050: A net zero future powered by fusion? New possibilities for realising nuclear fusion before 2050

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• Report
  Kimutai J, Vautard R, Zachariah M, Tolasz R, Šustková V, Cassou C, Skalák P, Clarke B, Haslinger K, Vahlberg M, Singh R, Stephens E, Cloke H, Raju E, Baumgart N, Thalheimer L, Chojnicki B, Otto F, Koren G, Philip S, Kew S, Haro P, Vibert J, von Weissenberg Aet al., 2024,

  Climate change and high exposure increased costs and disruption to lives and livelihoods from flooding associated with exceptionally heavy rainfall in Central Europe

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• Report
  Bird J, Wittke I, 2024,

  Climate Change Adaptation: Priority Research Areas

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• Journal article
  Loureiro MD, Jennings N, Lawrance E, Ferreira-Santos D, Neves ALet al., 2024,

  "Cool Solutions in Hot Times: The Case for Digital Health in Heatwave Action Plans" (Preprint)

  , Online Journal of Public Health Informatics
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• Report
  Becker M, 2024,

  Addressing the Scope 3 Challenge - a workshop briefing from researchers working on corporate climate action and governance

  The Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the Environment teamed up with Oxford Net Zero to convene a set of workshops bringing together academics and other experts to discuss issues related to the assessment and mitigation of scope 3 emissions. This briefing sets out the themes arising from workshop discussions on how standard setting bodies such as SBTi might approach scope 3.

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Fioravanti G, Acosta Navarro JC, Kimutai J, Dosio A, Pasotti L, Vahlberg M, Marghidan CP, Otto F, Clarke B, Philip S, Nalato E, Massucchielli LS, Taccardi B, Singh Ret al., 2024,

  Climate change key driver of extreme drought in water scarce Sicily and Sardinia

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• Journal article
  Lau KH, Toumi R, 2024,

  On the spirality of the asymmetric rain field of tropical cyclones under vertical wind shear

  , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276

  The downshear-left enhancement of tropical cyclone rainfall has been demonstrated previously, but the radial dependence of this effect was not analyzed in detail. This study quantifies the progressive upwind shift of the wavenumber-1 maximum rain position with radius relative to the vertical wind shear direction. This shift is visualized as a distinctive upwind spiral of the maximum. It is shown that this spiral pattern is generally observed across various storm intensities, shear strength, and ocean basins. Detailed examination revealed that the maximum downwind deflection angle of the wavenumber-1 rain maximum relative to the shear direction is smaller for tropical storms than hurricanes, but insensitive to hurricane intensity. It is proposed that the spirality is produced by a continuous decline in angular advection of air parcels with radius. The stability of the deflection angle in hurricanes may be accounted for by a corresponding increase in vertical ascent under strengthening angular flow.

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• Journal article
  Boran I, Pettorelli N, Koberle AC, Borges RA, De Palma A, Delgado D, Deneault A, Deprez A, Imbach P, Jennings NR, Salzmann AM, Widerberg O, Chan Set al., 2024,

  Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience

  , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, Vol: 159, ISSN: 1462-9011
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• Report
  Clarke B, Zachariah M, Barnes C, Sparks N, Toumi R, Yang W, Vahlberg M, Lagmay AM, Ybañez R, Delmendo PA, Malaiba C, Vrkic D, Otto F, Basconcillo J, Kimutai J, Philip S, Blomendaal N, Singh R, Arrighi J, Rodriguez LC, Rances Aet al., 2024,

  Climate change increased Typhoon Gaemi's wind speeds and rainfall, with devastating impacts across the western Pacific region

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