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  • Report
    Zachariah M, T CS R D T A, Barnes C, AchutaRao K, Mondal A, Saharia M, Vahlberg M, Otto F, Kimutai J, Clarke B, Kew S, Singh R, Sengupta S, Arrighi J, Pereira Marghidan C, Rodriguez LCet al., 2024,

    Landslide-triggering rainfall made more intense by human-induced climate change, devastating highly vulnerable communities in northern Kerala
  • Journal article
    Zhong G, Lin Z, Liu F, Xie M, Chen R, Tan Q-Get al., 2024,

    Toxicokinetics and Mussel Watch: Addressing Interspecies Differences for Coastal Cadmium Contamination Assessment

    , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 58, Pages: 14618-14628, ISSN: 0013-936X
  • Report
    Barnes C, Santos FLM, Libonati R, Keeping T, Rodrigues R, Alves LM, Sivanu S, Vahlberg M, Alcayna T, Otto F, Zachariah M, Singh R, Mugge M, Biehl J, Petryna A, Dias M, Reis E, Uzquiano Set al., 2024,

    Hot, dry and windy conditions that drove devastating Pantanal wildfires 40% more intense due to climate change
  • Report
    Jennings N, Brandmayr C, 2024,

    How can action to tackle climate change improve people’s health and save the NHS money?

    To achieve Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and contribute to global efforts to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, policies are required that reduce emissions across the whole of UK society including the transport, housing and agriculture sectors. Climate action could play an important role in helping to reduce existing health inequalities, improving public health and responding to the high levels of pressure on the NHS.
  • Report
    Lawrance E, Newberry Le Vay J, El Omrani O, Howitt P, Jennings N, Meinsma N, Watson Det al., 2024,

    Global Agenda for Research and Action in Climate Change and Mental Health
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Bucci A, Corby S, Moss B, Liang C, Gopakumar A, Stephens IEL, Lloret-Fillol J, Durrant JRet al., 2024,

    Unraveling the Role of Particle Size and Nanostructuring on the Oxygen Evolution Activity of Fe-Doped NiO

    , ACS CATALYSIS, Vol: 14, Pages: 11389-11399, ISSN: 2155-5435
  • Journal article
    Liang C, Rao RR, Svane KL, Hadden JHL, Moss B, Scott SB, Sachs M, Murawski J, Frandsen AM, Riley DJ, Ryan MP, Rossmeisl J, Durrant JR, Stephens IELet al., 2024,

    Unravelling the effects of active site density and energetics on the water oxidation activity of iridium oxides

    , Nature Catalysis, Vol: 7, Pages: 763-775, ISSN: 2520-1158

    Understanding what controls the reaction rate on iridium-based catalysts is central to designing better electrocatalysts for the water oxidation reaction in proton exchange membrane electrolysers. Here we quantify the densities of redox-active centres and probe their binding strengths on amorphous IrOx and rutile IrO2 using operando time-resolved optical spectroscopy. We establish a quantitative experimental correlation between the intrinsic reaction rate and the active-state energetics. We find that adsorbed oxygen species, *O, formed at water oxidation potentials, exhibit repulsive adsorbate–adsorbate interactions. Increasing their coverage weakens their binding, thereby promoting O–O bond formation, which is the rate-determining step. These analyses suggest that although amorphous IrOx exhibits a higher geometric current density, the intrinsic reaction rates per active state on IrOx and IrO2 are comparable at given potentials. Finally, we present a modified volcano plot that elucidates how the intrinsic water oxidation kinetics can be increased by optimizing both the binding energy and the interaction strength between the catalytically active states.
  • Report
    Pinto I, Barnes C, Philip S, Kew S, Cerezo-Mota R, Tannenbaum A, Winkley S, Pershing A, Vahlberg M, Pereira Marghidan C, Izquierdo K, Sivanu S, Keith L, Kleeman M, Otto F, Avila Flores B, Arroyo Barrantes S, Singh R, Mistry M, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

    Extreme heat killing more than 100 people in Mexico hotter and much more likely due to climate change
  • Report
    Rogelj J, Stern N, Zenghelis D, Valero A, Ekins P, Bell K, Qadrdan M, Cipcigan L, Hampton S, Whitmarsh L, Moorcroft Het al., 2024,

    The truth about climate action in the UK: dispelling common myths to underline the importance of acting on net zero

    To help unpack the evidence and provide greater clarity about what is fact and what is false, this collection of essays authored by academics from across the UK explores a range of topics that are often featured in public and policy discussion on climate change.The essays outline the key evidence on climate science, the economic implications of climate action, the performance and costs of technologies and infrastructure to reduce emissions, and public attitudes to net zero.
  • Report
    Zachariah M, Saeed F, Barnes C, Clarke B, Vahlberg M, Thalheimer L, Otto F, Philip S, Kew S, Singh R, Rodriguez LC, Zeb A, Khan Aet al., 2024,

    Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran
  • Report
    Brandmayr C, Bird J, Jennings N, Gilbert A, Ward B, Burke J, Mercer L, Serin Eet al., 2024,

    General Election 2024: climate change priorities for the next UK Government
  • Journal article
    Lee H, Kim K-H, Rao RR, Park DG, Choi WH, Choi JH, Kim DW, Jung DH, Stephens IEL, Durrant JR, Kang JKet al., 2024,

    A hydrogen radical pathway for efficacious electrochemical nitrate reduction to ammonia over an Fe-polyoxometalate/Cu electrocatalyst

    , MATERIALS HORIZONS, ISSN: 2051-6347
  • Report
    Clarke B, Barnes C, Rodrigues R, Zachariah M, Alves LM, Haarsma R, Pinto I, Yang W, Vahlberg M, Vecchi G, Izquierdo K, Kimutai J, Otto F, Philip S, Kew S, Singh R, Biehl J, Mugge Met al., 2024,

    Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil
  • Journal article
    Quilodran-Casas C, Li Q, Zhang N, Cheng S, Yan S, Ma Q, Arcucci Ret al., 2024,

    Exploring unseen 3D scenarios of physics variables using machine learning-based synthetic data: An application to wave energy converters

    , ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, Vol: 177, ISSN: 1364-8152
  • Journal article
    Holm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,

    Geometric mechanics of the vertical slice model

    , Geometric Mechanics, Vol: 01, Pages: 77-121, ISSN: 2972-4589

    <jats:p> The goals of this work are to: (i) investigate the dynamics of oceanic frontogenesis by taking advantage of the geometric mechanics underlying the class of Vertical Slice Models (VSMs) of ocean dynamics and (ii) illustrate the versatility and utility of deterministic and stochastic variational approaches by deriving several variants of wave–current interaction models which describe the effects of internal waves propagating within a vertical planar slice embedded in a 3D region of constant horizontal gradient of buoyancy in the direction transverse to the vertical plane. </jats:p>
  • Journal article
    Rai UJ, Oluleye G, Hawkes A, 2024,

    Stochastic optimisation model to determine the optimal contractual capacity of a distributed energy resource offered in a balancing services contract to maximise profit

    , Energy Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 5800-5818, ISSN: 2352-4847

    In the realm of grid balancing services, determining the generation capacity of a distributed energy resource for contractual agreements with the system operator is pivotal. However, prevalent heuristic or deterministic methodologies employed by demand response aggregators often lack risk assessment and may not optimize generation capacity allocation. Consequently, the potential for maximizing utilization profits remains untapped. This paper addresses these limitations and explains the necessity of using the optimal generation capacity of a grid-connected distributed energy resource which is also fulfilling site electricity demand to maximise profit and mitigate penalties both for demand response aggregators and their clients. Demand response aggregators provide these services to the system operator on behalf of their clients whose electrical generation assets they utilize on a profit-sharing basis. The primary challenge investigated in this study lies in effectively managing the uncertainty surrounding both site electricity demand and short-term operating reserve calls by the system operator through a novel two-step approach. Firstly, a demand bin characterization technique is employed to account for site demand uncertainty. Subsequently, a stochastic model utilizing mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed using the General Algebraic Modeling System, incorporating five years of uncertainty regarding the frequency of short-term operating reserve calls which makes it instrumental and novel in determining optimal contractual generation capacity in a balancing service contract, as well as associated profits and penalties, under varying utilization prices. This distinctiveness positions it as an advancement over and distinct from deterministic approaches. Case study results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed stochastic model in comparison to deterministic methods utilized in prior research. Specifically, the stochastic model yields a realistic profit incr
  • Working paper
    Bird J, 2024,

    Autumn and winter storms in the UK 2023-24
  • Report
    El Omrani O, Massazza A, Fleury J, Funani A, Guluzade N, Jatene I, Lawrance E, Jennings N, Souza de Camargo T, Vergunst F, Vicente dos Santos Ferreira Jet al., 2024,

    Submission by The Climate Cares Centre and United for Global Mental Health to the Expert Dialogue on Children and Climate Change
  • Report
    Kimutai J, Barnes C, Masambaya F, Pinto I, Mwai Z, Wangari H, Ogega OM, Kilavi M, Vahlberg M, Arrighi J, Raju E, Baumgart N, Otto F, Zachariah M, Philip S, Singh R, Jjemba E, Mawanda Set al., 2024,

    Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world
  • Report
    Kew SF, McCarthy M, Ryan C, Pirret JSR, Murtagh E, Vahlberg M, Amankona A, Pope JO, Lott F, Claydon O, Coonan B, Pinto I, Barnes C, Philip S, Otto F, Wallace E, Bryant L, Tranter E, Singh R, Mijic Aet al., 2024,

    Autumn and Winter storms over UK and Ireland are becoming wetter due to climate change
  • Report
    Zachariah M, Clarke B, Vahlberg M, Pereira Marghidan C, Singh R, Sengupta S, Otto F, Pinto I, Mistry M, Arrighi J, Gale S, Rodriguez Let al., 2024,

    Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across large parts of Asia more frequent and extreme
  • Journal article
    Syafina P, Oluleye G, 2024,

    A comparative assessment of policy induced diffusion pathways for utility scale solar PV: case study of Indonesia

    , Frontiers in Sustainable Energy Policy, Vol: 3, ISSN: 2813-4982

    Lack of effective policies hinder the uptake of Utility-scale solar PV, even though they are projected to play a pivotal role in achieving Indonesia’s 2050 net-zero energy target. This study seeks to identify a cost-effective pathway to increase the capacity of utility-scale solar PV in Indonesia through supportive policies that ensure equitable cost distribution between the government and industry. A novel Market Penetration Optimization Model is developed and applied in simulation mode to assess existing policies, and optimization mode to determine new policy recommendations and compare three policy induced diffusion pathways. Results show that current price-based policies are insufficient to stimulate growth in the solar PV market, only covering approximately 13% of the investment cost required by the industry. Thus, necessitating a reactivation of Feed-in-Tariffs. The optimal tariffs rates required range from 0.39 to 1.47 cents /kWh for the most economic pathway during the initial ten-year post-construction period. The Innovation Diffusion Theory-based pathway necessitates the lowest initial investment cost while yielding the highest revenue from electricity sales, demonstrating its superior cost-effectiveness compared to both the supply-based and linear pathways. This study enriches the literature by exploring the financial implications of policy induced diffusion pathways.
  • Report
    Barnes C, Paton S, Stallard RF, de Lima H, Clarke B, Vahlberg M, Sivanu S, Amakona A, Izquierdo K, Otto F, Zachariah M, Philip S, Mistry M, Singh R, Arrighi Jet al., 2024,

    Low water levels in Panama Canal due to increasing demand exacerbated by El Niño event
  • Journal article
    Akkiraju K, Rao R, Hwang J, Giordano L, Wang XR, Crumlin E, Weinberger DS, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2024,

    Regulating Oxygen Activity of Perovskites to Promote Activity and Selectivity for Methanol Oxidation to Formaldehyde

    , ACS CATALYSIS, Vol: 14, Pages: 7649-7663, ISSN: 2155-5435
  • Journal article
    Lewis-Brown E, Jennings N, Mills M, Ewers Ret al., 2024,

    Comparison of carbon management and emissions of universities that did and did not adopt voluntary carbon offsets

    , Climate Policy, Vol: 24, Pages: 706-722, ISSN: 1469-3062

    The urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, remove carbon from the atmosphere and stabilize natural carbon sinks has led to the development of many carbon management measures, increasingly including voluntary carbon offsets (VCOs). We studied carbon management in universities, institutions with large carbon footprints and considerable influence in climate science and policy fora. However, concerns that VCOs may deter adopters (including universities) from adopting other carbon reduction measures and limit emissions reductions, for example, through moral hazard, have been raised but understudied. We compared the carbon management characteristics (priorities, policies, practices and emissions) of universities that did and did not adopt VCOs. We found adopters measured carbon emissions for longer, and had set targets to reach net zero earlier than had non-adopters. Adopters of VCOs also undertook more carbon management practices in both 2010 and 2020 than non-adopters. We also found that both adopters and non-adopters significantly increased their carbon management practices over the decade studied, but with no difference between groups. Gross CO2 emissions were reduced significantly over time by adopters of VCOs but not by non-adopters, whereas carbon intensity and percentage annual emissions reductions did not relate to adoption status. Consequently, our study showed no indication of mitigation deterrence due to adoption of VCOs at the universities studied. Rather, greater emissions reductions correlated with earlier net zero target dates, and a higher number of policies and carbon management practices. However, our study was constrained to universities that were affiliated with a national environmental network, so research beyond these organizations, and with individuals, would be useful. The survey was voluntary, exposing the study to potential self-selection bias so the findings may not be generalized beyond the study group. Finally, we found the carbon ac
  • Journal article
    Zhou L, Liu F, Achterberg EP, Engel A, Campbell PGC, Fortin C, Huang L, Tan Yet al., 2024,

    Promoting effects of aluminum addition on chlorophyll biosynthesis and growth of two cultured iron‐limited marine diatoms

    , Limnology and Oceanography, Vol: 69, Pages: 1157-1171, ISSN: 0024-3590

    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Aluminum (Al) may play a role in the ocean's capacity for absorbing atmospheric CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> via influencing carbon fixation, export, and sequestration. Aluminum fertilization, especially in iron (Fe)‐limited high‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll ocean regions, has been proposed as a potential CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> removal strategy to mitigate global warming. However, how Al addition would influence the solubility and bioavailability of Fe as well as the physiology of Fe‐limited phytoplankton has not yet been examined. Here, we show that Al addition (20 and 100 nM) had little influence on the Fe solubility in surface seawater and decreased the Fe bio‐uptake by 11–22% in Fe‐limited diatom <jats:italic>Thalassiosira weissflogii</jats:italic> in Fe‐buffered media. On the other hand, the Al addition significantly increased the rate of chlorophyll biosynthesis by 45–60% for Fe‐limited <jats:italic>T. weissflogii</jats:italic> and 81–102% for Fe‐limited <jats:italic>Thalassiosira pseudonana</jats:italic>, as well as their cell size, cellular chlorophyll content, photosynthetic quantum efficiency (<jats:italic>F</jats:italic><jats:sub>v</jats:sub>/<jats:italic>F</jats:italic><jats:sub>m</jats:sub>) and growth rate. Under Fe‐sufficient conditions, the Al addition still led to an increased growth rate, though the beneficial effects of Al addition on chlorophyll biosynthesis were no longer apparent. These results suggest that Al may facilitate chlorophyll biosynthesis and benefit the photosynthetic efficiency and growth of Fe‐limited diatoms. We speculate that Al addition may enhance intracellular Fe use efficiency for chlorophyll biosynthesis by facilitating the superoxide‐mediated intracellular reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II). Our study provides new evidence and support for the
  • Report
    Zachariah M, Kimutai J, Barnes C, Gryspeerdt E, Seneviratne SI, Almazroui M, Vautard R, Zhang X, Pinto I, Vahlberg M, Sengupta S, Saeed F, Otto F, Clarke B, Philip S, Lohmann U, Wernli H, Mistry M, El Hajj R, Singh R, Arrighi Jet al., 2024,

    Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms
  • Journal article
    Sparks N, Toumi R, 2024,

    The Imperial College Storm model (IRIS) dataset

    , Scientific Data, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2052-4463

    Assessing tropical cyclone risk on a global scale given the infrequency of landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) and the short period of reliable observations remains a challenge. Synthetic tropical cyclone datasets can help overcome these problems. Here we present a new global dataset created by IRIS, the ImpeRIal college Storm model. IRIS is novel because, unlike other synthetic TC models, it only simulates the decay from the point of lifetime maximum intensity. This minimises the bias in the dataset. It takes input from 42 years of observed tropical cyclones and creates a 10,000 year synthetic dataset of wind speed which is then validated against the observations. IRIS captures important statistical characteristics of the observed data. The return periods of the landfall maximum wind speed are realistic globally.
  • Journal article
    Kwon S, Stoerzinger KA, Rao R, Qiao L, Goddard III WA, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2024,

    Facet-Dependent Oxygen Evolution Reaction Activity of IrO<sub>2</sub> from Quantum Mechanics and Experiments

    , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 11719-11725, ISSN: 0002-7863
  • Report
    Halkyard S, Levey S, Amer H, Brogan C, Butler L, Cannon C, Davenport F, Duncan C, Dunning H, Evanson D, Ford P, Fredenburgh J, Gokdemir T, Govan E, Heyburn J, Jennings N, Johns S, Kuchapski N, McNally C, Mundell I, Murphy V, Ross P, Silverman D, Singleton L, Taylor J, A Thousand Monkeys, Wilson J, Wynton Let al., 2024,

    Grantham Institute Outlook 2023-2024

    , www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham

    The Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.

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