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• Report
  Zachariah M, Kimutai J, Barnes C, Gryspeerdt E, Seneviratne SI, Almazroui M, Vautard R, Zhang X, Pinto I, Vahlberg M, Sengupta S, Saeed F, Otto F, Clarke B, Philip S, Lohmann U, Wernli H, Mistry M, El Hajj R, Singh R, Arrighi Jet al., 2024,

  Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms

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• Journal article
  Sparks N, Toumi R, 2024,

  The Imperial College Storm model (IRIS) dataset

  , Scientific Data, Vol: 11, ISSN: 2052-4463

  Assessing tropical cyclone risk on a global scale given the infrequency of landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) and the short period of reliable observations remains a challenge. Synthetic tropical cyclone datasets can help overcome these problems. Here we present a new global dataset created by IRIS, the ImpeRIal college Storm model. IRIS is novel because, unlike other synthetic TC models, it only simulates the decay from the point of lifetime maximum intensity. This minimises the bias in the dataset. It takes input from 42 years of observed tropical cyclones and creates a 10,000 year synthetic dataset of wind speed which is then validated against the observations. IRIS captures important statistical characteristics of the observed data. The return periods of the landfall maximum wind speed are realistic globally.

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• Journal article
  Kwon S, Stoerzinger KA, Rao R, Qiao L, Goddard III WA, Shao-Horn Yet al., 2024,

  Facet-Dependent Oxygen Evolution Reaction Activity of IrO₂ from Quantum Mechanics and Experiments

  , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 11719-11725, ISSN: 0002-7863
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• Report
  Halkyard S, Levey S, Amer H, Brogan C, Butler L, Cannon C, Davenport F, Duncan C, Dunning H, Evanson D, Ford P, Fredenburgh J, Gokdemir T, Govan E, Heyburn J, Jennings N, Johns S, Kuchapski N, McNally C, Mundell I, Murphy V, Ross P, Silverman D, Singleton L, Taylor J, A Thousand Monkeys, Wilson J, Wynton Let al., 2024,

  Grantham Institute Outlook 2023-2024

  , www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham

  The Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.

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• Journal article
  Riou J, Panczak R, Konstantinoudis G, Egger Met al., 2024,

  Area-level excess mortality in times of COVID-19 in Switzerland: geographical, socioeconomic and political determinants

  , EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 34, Pages: 415-417, ISSN: 1101-1262
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• Journal article
  Zhu L, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, Kerswell RR, Linden PFet al., 2024,

  Long-wave instabilities of sloping stratified exchange flows

  , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 983, ISSN: 0022-1120
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  • Citations: 3
• Journal article
  Liang C, Katayama Y, Tao Y, Morinaga A, Moss B, Celorrio V, Ryan M, Stephens IEL, Durrant JR, Rao RRet al., 2024,

  Role of Electrolyte pH on Water Oxidation for Iridium Oxides

  , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 8928-8938, ISSN: 0002-7863
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• Journal article
  Patel DN, Matalon P, Oluleye G, 2024,

  A novel temporal mixed-integer market penetration model for cost-effective uptake of electric boilers in the UK chemical industry

  , Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 446, ISSN: 0959-6526

  The UK chemical industry is the largest consumer of natural gas for process heating and power generation, with an annual consumption of 26.3 TWh. Reduction in natural gas consumption and associated carbon emissions can be achieved through electrification of heat. However, the adoption of electric boilers is lethargic due to economic barriers. Hence, market-based policy interventions are required. This study aims to accelerate the adoption of electric boilers in the UK's chemical industry, aligning with the UK's ambitious 2035 industrial decarbonisation goals while considering economic impacts, by designing market-based policy interventions and comparing two adoption patterns. A novel multi-period Mixed-Integer Market Penetration Optimisation Model is developed and applied to inform decisions about transitioning from natural gas to electric boilers. The model is applied to a case study of all the heating systems (490 boilers) in the UK chemical industry from 1 MW to 60 MW boilers. Results show that effectively implementing a gas tax, electricity subsidy, annual grant and carbon tax can generate sufficient demand-pull to reduce the cost of electric boilers from 30 to 85 % depending on the boiler size. A carbon tax starting at £280 per tCO2e and reducing to £170 per tCO2e coupled with electricity subsidies is essential for this transition. The policies are designed such that a win-win is achieved between government and industry; specifically, revenue from the carbon tax and gas tax is used to support the grant and electricity subsidy thereby achieving cost neutrality for government. At 100 % uptake of electric boilers in 2033, the total carbon emissions reduce by 89 %, which is above the 2035 UK industry goal of 60 % reduction. The research establishes a robust policy timeline that can drive industrial electrification in the UK's chemical sector. It highlights the need for a multi-faceted approach, incorporating various policy instruments to overcome the ba

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• Journal article
  Moss B, Svane KL, Nieto-Castro D, Rao RR, Scott SB, Tseng C, Sachs M, Pennathur A, Liang C, Oldham LI, Mazzolini E, Jurado L, Sankar G, Parry S, Celorrio V, Dawlaty JM, Rossmeisl J, Galan-Mascaros JR, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2024,

  Cooperative Effects Drive Water Oxidation Catalysis in Cobalt Electrocatalysts through the Destabilization of Intermediates

  , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 146, Pages: 8915-8927, ISSN: 0002-7863
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• Report
  Pinto I, Odoulami RC, Lawal KA, Olaniyan E, Ibrahim WA, Guigma K, Vahlberg M, Heinrich D, Marghidan CP, Vogel M, Arrighi J, Barnes C, Otto F, Philip S, Mistry M, Sengupta S, Kew S, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

  Dangerous humid heat in southern West Africa about 4°C hotter due to climate change

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• Journal article
  Qian J, Hu T, Xiong H, Cao X, Liu F, Gosnell KJ, Xie M, Chen R, Tan Q-Get al., 2024,

  Turbid Waters and Clearer Standards: Refining Water Quality Criteria for Coastal Environments by Encompassing Metal Bioavailability from Suspended Particles

  , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 58, Pages: 5244-5254, ISSN: 0013-936X
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• Journal article
  Lefauve A, Couchman MMP, 2024,

  Data-driven classification of sheared stratified turbulence from experimental shadowgraphs

  , PHYSICAL REVIEW FLUIDS, Vol: 9, ISSN: 2469-990X
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  • Citations: 5
• Report
  Ersoz A, Rhodes A, 2024,

  Delivering our future power system - an Energy Futures Lab briefing paper

  , Delivering Our Future Power System - An Energy Futures Lab Briefing Paper
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• Journal article
  Guo C, Benzie P, Hu S, de Nijs B, Miele E, Elliott E, Arul R, Benjamin H, Dziechciarczyk G, Rao RR, Ryan MP, Baumberg JJet al., 2024,

  Extensive photochemical restructuring of molecule-metal surfaces under room light

  , NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 15
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• Journal article
  Liu F, Toumi R, Zhang H, Chen Det al., 2024,

  Impact of precipitation on ocean responses during a tropical cyclone

  , Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol: 54, Pages: 895-909, ISSN: 0022-3670

  Precipitation plays a crucial role in modulating upper-ocean salinity and the formation of the barrier layer, which affects the development of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study performed idealized simulations to investigate the influence of precipitation on the upper ocean. Precipitation acts to suppress the wind-induced sea surface reduction and generates an asymmetric warming response with a rightward bias. There is substantial vertical change with a cooling anomaly in the subsurface, which is about 3 times larger than the surface warming. The mean tropical cyclone heat potential is locally increased, but the net effect across the cyclone footprint is small. The impact of precipitation on the ocean tends to saturate for extreme precipitation, suggesting a nonlinear feedback. A prevailing driver of the model behavior is that the freshwater flux from precipitation strengthens the stratification and increases current shear in the upper ocean, trapping more kinetic energy in the surface layer and subsequently weakening near-inertial waves in the deep ocean. This study highlights the competing roles of TC precipitation and wind. Because the TC category is weaker than category 3, the warming anomaly is caused by reduced vertical mixing, whereas for stronger storms, the advection process is most important.

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• Report
  Jennings N, Paterson P, Whitmarsh L, Howarth Cet al., 2024,

  What do the UK public think about the co-benefits that climate action can bring?

  This slide deck summarises findings from a nationally representative sample (on the basis of age, gender and ethnicity) of 1,021 people who were asked to share their opinions about the co-benefits of climate action. People were surveyed via the online survey platform Prolific on Monday 12th February 2024. The headline findings and recommendations are followed by a case study focused on homes that are more affordable to heat. The insights in this slide deck build on findings from a Grantham report published in October 2023, How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action? which included survey and focus groups with members of the UK public.

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Clarke B, Barnes C, Kimutai J, Sivanu S, Ybañez RL, Otto F, Philip S, Arrighi J, Falk K, Cruz FA, Avila F, Olaguera LM, Petilla CEet al., 2024,

  More effective early flood warning needed in exposed communities to reduce loss of lives with increasing heavy rainfall in Mindanao Island, southern Philippines

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Clarke B, Thorne P, Ryan C, Zachariah M, Murphy C, McCarthy G, O'Connor P, Eresanya EO, Cahill N, Coonan B, Otto Fet al., 2024,

  Climate change made the extreme 2-day rainfall event associated with flooding in Midleton, Ireland more likely and more intense

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Zhu L, Jiang X, Lefauve A, Kerswell RR, Linden PFet al., 2024,

  New insights into experimental stratified flows obtained through physics-informed neural networks

  , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 981, ISSN: 0022-1120
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• Report
  Kimutai J, Carrasco-Escaff T, Garreaud RD, Zachariah M, Barnes C, Libonati R, Keeping T, Villarroel Jiménez C, Muñoz Bravo F, Boisier JP, Santos Vega M, Vahlberg M, Sengupta S, Otto F, Clarke B, Munoz A, Rojas Corradi M, Mistry M, Philip S, Kew Set al., 2024,

  Despite known coastal cooling trend, risk of deadly wildfires in central Chile increasing with changing land management in a warming climate

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• Journal article
  Sietsma AJ, Theokritoff E, Biesbroek R, Canosa IV, Thomas A, Callaghan M, Minx JC, Ford JDet al., 2024,

  Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

  , ONE EARTH, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2590-3330
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  • Citations: 12
• Journal article
  Lawrance EL, Massazza A, Pantelidou I, Le Vay JN, El Omrani O, Lawrance E, Nabarro D, Otto F, Jennings N, Rao M, Meinsma N, Howitt P, Sakalauskas D, Curl M, Bailey M, Suarez P, Meyer R, Whitton S, Guinto RR, Aruta JJB, Maharaj S, Greaves N, Anchang KY, Zeitz L, Wray B, Newman S, Uchendu J, Lekwa H, Olude A, Wright S, Boyce N, Thomson M, Watson C, Hore Ret al., 2024,

  Connecting Climate Minds: a shared vision for the climate change and mental health field

  , NATURE MENTAL HEALTH, Vol: 2, Pages: 121-125
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  • Citations: 7
• Report
  Pinto I, Rantanen M, Ødemark K, Tradowsky J, Kjellström E, Barnes C, Otto F, Heinrich D, Pereira Marghidan C, Vahlberg M, Falk K, Vautard R, Kew S, Philip S, Kimutai J, Zachariah M, Arrighi J, Forsberg A, Vaalgamaa N, Scheider Let al., 2024,

  Extreme cold will still occur in Northern Europe, although less often - risking decreasing preparedness and higher vulnerability

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Zachariah M, Clarke B, Barnes C, Vahlberg M, Banthiya A, Thalheimer L, Otto F, Kimutai J, Arrighi J, Fisher Det al., 2024,

  Climate change increased heavy precipitation associated with impactful Storm Bettina over Black Sea

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Waring BG, 2024,

  The potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change

  This briefing note assesses the potential for soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change, summarising the basic science and providing an overview of best practices for measuring and modifying soil carbon stocks. We also set out recommendations for policy makers, examining UK land use policies as a case study.

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• Report
  Clarke B, Barnes C, Rodrigues R, Zachariah M, Stewart S, Raju E, Baumgart N, Heinrich D, Libonati R, Santos D, Albuquerque R, Alves LM, Pinto I, Otto F, Kimutai J, Philip S, Kew S, Bazo Jet al., 2024,

  Climate change, not El Niño, main driver of extreme drought in highly vulnerable Amazon River Basin

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Shi J, Feng X, Toumi R, Zhang C, Hodges KI, Tao A, Zhang W, Zheng Jet al., 2024,

  Publisher Correction: Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves

  , Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723
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• Conference paper
  Morgan O, Elwy L, Oluleye O, 2024,

  Assessing the UK’s attempt to establish a zero-carbon hydrogen economy in the industrial sector

  , International Conference on Applied Energy, Publisher: Scanditale AB, ISSN: 2004-2965

  This study determines the cost reducing effect of hydrogen supply-push targets, which will indicate the sufficiency of current UK government policy to initiate a hydrogen economy within the industrial sector. This study will also answer the question “What demand-pull policies can support fuel switching to hydrogen in UK industry?” A novel mixed-methods approach is used, in-depth rapid evidence assessment and a macro market penetration assessment to understand how to best establish an industrial hydrogen economy. Our findings show that without demand-pull policies, 65 GW to 350 GW of hydrogen supply is required to achieve price parity with natural gas.

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• Journal article
  Shi J, Feng X, Toumi R, Zhang C, Hodges KI, Tao A, Zhang W, Zheng Jet al., 2024,

  Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves

  , Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723

  The long-term changes of ocean surface waves associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are poorly observed and understood. Here, we present the global trend analysis of TC waves for 1979–2022 based on the ERA5 wave reanalysis. The maximum height and the area of the TC wave footprint in the six h reanalysis have increased globally by about 3%/decade and 6%/decade, respectively. The TC wave energy transferred at the interface from the atmosphere to the ocean has increased globally by about 9%/decade, which is three times larger than that reported for all waves. The global energy changes are mostly driven by the growing area of the wave footprint. Our study shows that the TC-associated wave hazard has increased significantly and these changes are larger than those of the TC maximum wind speed. This suggests that the wave hazard should be a concern in the future.

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• Journal article
  Konstantinoudis G, Evangelopoulos D, Katsaounou P, Filippidis Fet al., 2024,

  Association of high temperatures with cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in a context of high smoking prevalence: The case of Greece

  , Tobacco Prevention and Cessation, Vol: 10

  Introduction Climate change presents a significant threat to human health. Increased temperatures can aggravate COPD and asthma and exacerbate the effect of factors such as air pollution or pollen, which are known to affect these diseases. Older people, people with multiple chronic diseases, and deprived populations are affected the most by high temperatures. Quantifying this variation is crucial to inform adaptation to heat policies and to shed light on how effect modifiers such as deprivation, green space, and smoking modify this effect. Methods Daily data on all-cause mortality at the NUTS3 administrative regions (nomos) during 2000–2019 in Greece by age and sex was retrieved from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. The daily mean temperature at 9kmx9km was retrieved from the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset. We employed a case-crossover study design to examine all-cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by age (75<, 75–84, 85+) and sex (male and female), focusing on the effect of heatwaves (deaths occurring during April to September) using six different definitions (durations = >2 or >3 days and thresholds = 90%, 95% and 99% of the annual space specific temperature percentile). We fitted Bayesian conditional Poisson regression models and examined how the effect varies in time and at the NUTS3 region level. Results We retrieved 216, 758 cardiorespiratory deaths from April and September during 2000–2019. Most of the deaths were among females (52%). Overall, we observed an increasing effect of heatwaves on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality with increasing duration and temperature thresholds. We also observed an overall decreasing trend of the heatwave effect across the study periods in all heatwave definitions, apart from our most extreme definition, where we observed an increasing trend. We observed weak evidence of spatial vulnerabilities. Conclusions Heatwaves are associated with cardiovascular and respiratory mortalit

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