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Book chapterHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,
On the interactions between mean flows and inertial gravity waves in the WKB approximation
, Mathematics of Planet Earth, Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland, Pages: 111-141, ISBN: 9783031400933We derive a Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin (WKB) closure of the generalised Lagrangian mean (GLM) theory by using a phase-averaged Hamilton variational principle for the Euler–Boussinesq (EB) equations. Following Gjaja and Holm 1996, we consider 3D inertial gravity waves (IGWs) in the EB approximation. The GLM closure for WKB IGWs expresses EB wave mean flow interaction (WMFI) as WKB wave motion boosted into the reference frame of the EB equations for the Lagrangian mean transport velocity. We provide both deterministic and stochastic closure models for GLM IGWs at leading order in 3D complex vector WKB wave asymptotics. This paper brings the Gjaja and Holm 1996 paper at leading order in wave amplitude asymptotics into an easily understood short form and proposes a stochastic generalisation of the WMFI equations for IGWs.
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Conference paperOluleye O, Hu F, Abu Ali H, et al., 2024,
A novel stochastic market potential optimisation model for clean technology uptake modelling
, International Conference on Applied Energy, Publisher: Scanditale AB, ISSN: 2004-2965The high mitigation cost of clean innovations, warrants policy support for increased uptake. This study applies optimization techniques to investigate the impact of market-based policies in generating sufficient demand pull to trigger cost reduction under uncertainty. A novel Stochastic Market Potential Optimization model (SMPOM) is developed to maximize the cost difference between the initial cost of a technology and the new cost using a market-based policy. The model is applied to a case study of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in 32 integrated steel plants in Europe. Results show policy induced demand pull can reduce the mitigation cost of CCS.
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Journal articleTsui EYL, Chan PW, Toumi R, 2024,
Boundary layer profile of decaying and non-decaying tropical storms near landfall
, Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1530-261XThe vertical profile of the wind structure of translating tropical cyclones, including the associated azimuthal asymmetry, has been the subject of existing theoretical and observational studies using dropsondes. Most of these studies are based on data collected from relatively strong cyclones over the Atlantic. Here we explore the tropical cyclone boundary layer wind profile of mainly relatively weak landfalling cyclones near Hong Kong. We find that decaying tropical storms have a much larger mid- to low-level inflow angle than those that are intensifying or in steady-state. The inflow angles of intensifying, steady-state and decaying tropical storms converge towards the top of the boundary layer. The wind speed reduces through the boundary layer in a similar way in all three cases. The combination of these factors means that decaying tropical storms have stronger inflow than intensifying and steady-state ones. We attribute these local effects to remote enhanced surface friction over land when the storms are weakening.
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Journal articleSerdeczny O, Andrijevic M, Fyson C, et al., 2024,
Climatic risks to adaptive capacity
, MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE, Vol: 29, ISSN: 1381-2386- Cite
- Citations: 7
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Journal articlePaiboonsin P, Oluleye G, Howells M, et al., 2024,
Pathways to Clean Energy Transition in Indonesia's Electricity Sector with Open-Source Energy Modelling System Modelling (OSeMOSYS)
, ENERGIES, Vol: 17 -
Journal articleMurawski J, Scott SB, Rao R, et al., 2024,
Benchmarking Stability of Iridium Oxide in Acidic Media under Oxygen Evolution Conditions: A Review: Part II Investigation of catalyst activity and stability via short term testing
, JOHNSON MATTHEY TECHNOLOGY REVIEW, Vol: 68, Pages: 147-160, ISSN: 2056-5135 -
Journal articleDalder J, Oluleye G, Cannone C, et al., 2024,
Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)
, ENERGIES, Vol: 17 -
Journal articleMurawski J, Scott SB, Rao R, et al., 2024,
Benchmarking Stability of Iridium Oxide in Acidic Media under Oxygen Evolution Conditions: A Review: Part I Probing degradation of iridium-based oxide catalysts
, JOHNSON MATTHEY TECHNOLOGY REVIEW, Vol: 68, Pages: 121-146, ISSN: 2056-5135 -
Journal articleOluleye G, Patel D, Matalon P, et al., 2024,
A novel optimisation framework to design market-based policy interventions for the uptake of alternative fuels in the UK chemical industry
, Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, Vol: 53, Pages: 2089-2094, ISSN: 1570-7946Shifting to clean alternatives like biomethane, green hydrogen, and blue hydrogen for industrial heating offers emission reductions, yet their high costs hinder adoption. There is no systematic way to design policy interventions that enable cost reduction at minimum cost to government and industry. This study aims to formulate and apply a novel multiperiod Mixed-Integer Market Penetration Optimization Model to fill this gap and inform decisions about transitioning to alternative fuels for heating in the UK Chemical Industry. The model cost-effectively designs a policy pathway whilst accounting for the fuel cost reduction due to demand-pull induced learning effects in the policy design. The model is applied to 490 boilers in the UK chemical industry, the model designs effective policy mixes to reduce the cost of green hydrogen by 60%, blue hydrogen by 36%, and green gas biomethane by 17%, with revenue from taxes supporting subsidies for cost neutrality.
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Journal articleLefauve A, 2024,
Geophysical stratified turbulence and mixing in the laboratory
, COMPTES RENDUS PHYSIQUE, Vol: 25, ISSN: 1631-0705 -
Journal articleJiang X, Atoufi A, Zhu L, et al., 2023,
Geometry of stratified turbulent mixing: local alignment of the density gradient with rotation, shear and viscous dissipation
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 977, ISSN: 0022-1120 -
Journal articleAtoufi A, Zhu L, Lefauve A, et al., 2023,
Stratified inclined duct: two-layer hydraulics and instabilities
, JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 977, ISSN: 0022-1120- Cite
- Citations: 7
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ReportKimutai J, Barnes C, Zachariah M, et al., 2023,
Compounding natural hazards and high vulnerability led to severe impacts from Horn of Africa flooding exacerbated by climate change and Indian Ocean Dipole
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleHon KK, Ballard R, Blake E, et al., 2023,
Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast
, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol: 12, Pages: 323-340, ISSN: 2225-6032Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.
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Working paperOtto F, Kimutai J, Bird J, et al., 2023,
Loss and Damage Fund: the need for climate impact metrics
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Journal articleTheokritoff E, van Maanen N, Andrijevic M, et al., 2023,
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
, Scientific Reports, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2045-2322Climate change adaptation is paramount, but increasing evidence suggests that adaptation action is subject to a range of constraints. For a realistic assessment of future adaptation prospects, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome these constraints. Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios. We find that even in the most optimistic scenario, it will take until well after 2050 to overcome key constraints, which will limit adaptation for decades to come particularly in vulnerable countries. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our approach allows to ground truth indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts, improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.
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ReportPinto I, Barimalala R, Philip S, et al., 2023,
Extreme poverty renders Madagascar highly vulnerable to underreported extreme heat that would not have occurred without human-induced climate change
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2023,
Lagrangian reduction and wave mean flow interaction
, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol: 454, ISSN: 0167-2789How does one derive models of dynamical feedback effects in multiscale, multiphysics systems such as wave mean flow interaction (WMFI)? We shall address this question for hybrid dynamical systems, defined as systems whose motion can be expressed as the composition of two or more Lie-group actions. Hybrid systems abound in fluid dynamics. Examples include: the dynamics of complex fluids such as liquid crystals; wind-driven waves propagating with the currents moving on the sea surface; turbulence modelling in fluids and plasmas; and classical–quantum hydrodynamic models in molecular chemistry. From among these examples, the motivating question here is: How do wind-driven waves produce ocean surface currents?The paper first summarises the geometric mechanics approach for deriving hybrid models of multiscale, multiphysics motions in ideal fluid dynamics. It then illustrates this approach for WMFI in the examples of 3D WKB waves and 2D wave amplitudes governed by the nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation propagating in the frame of motion of an ideal incompressible inhomogeneous Euler fluid flow. The results for these examples tell us that the mean flow in WMFI does not create waves, although it does transport the waves. However, feedback in the opposite direction is possible, since the 3D WKB and 2D NLS wave dynamics discussed here do in fact create circulatory mean flow.
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Journal articleChen R, Toumi R, Shi X, et al., 2023,
An adaptive learning approach for tropical cyclone intensity correction
, Remote Sensing, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2072-4292Tropical cyclones (TCs) are dangerous weather events; accurate monitoring and forecasting can provide significant early warning to reduce loss of life and property. However, the study of tropical cyclone intensity remains challenging, both in terms of theory and forecasting. ERA5 reanalysis is a benchmark data set for tropical cyclone studies, yet the maximum wind speed error is very large (68 kts) and is still 19 kts after simple linear correction, even in the better sampled North Atlantic. Here, we develop an adaptive learning approach to correct the intensity in the ERA5 reanalysis, by optimising the inputs to overcome the problems caused by the poor data quality and updating the features to improve the generalisability of the deep learning-based model. Specifically, we use understanding of TC properties to increase the representativeness of the inputs so that the general features can be learned with deep neural networks in the sample space, and then use domain adaptation to update the general features from the known domain with historical storms to the specific features for the unknown domain of new storms. This approach can reduce the error to only 6 kts which is within the uncertainty of the best track data in the international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS) in the North Atlantic. The method may have wide applicability, such as when extending it to the correction of intensity estimation from satellite imagery and intensity prediction from dynamical models.
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ReportOtto F, Clarke B, Rahimi M, et al., 2023,
Human-induced climate change compounded by socio-economic water stressors increased severity of drought in Syria, Iraq and Iran
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleChagot L, Hernandez Gelado S, Quilodran-Casas C, 2023,
Enhancing microdroplets image analysis with deep learning
, Micromachines, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2072-666XMicrofluidics is a highly interdisciplinary field where the integration of deep-learning models has the potential to streamline processes and increase precision and reliability. This study investigates the use of deep-learning methods for the accurate detection and measurement of droplet diameters and the image restoration of low-resolution images. This study demonstrates that the Segment Anything Model (SAM) provides superior detection and reduced droplet diameter error measurement compared to the Circular Hough Transform, which is widely implemented and used in microfluidic imaging. SAM droplet detections prove to be more robust to image quality and microfluidic images with low contrast between the fluid phases. In addition, this work proves that a deep-learning super-resolution network MSRN-BAM can be trained on a dataset comprising of droplets in a flow-focusing microchannel to super-resolve images for scales ×2, ×4, ×6, ×8. Super-resolved images obtain comparable detection and segmentation results to those obtained using high-resolution images. Finally, the potential of deep learning in other computer vision tasks, such as denoising for microfluidic imaging, is shown. The results show that a DnCNN model can denoise effectively microfluidic images with additive Gaussian noise up to
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ReportKew S, Pinto I, Alves L, et al., 2023,
Strong influence of climate change in uncharacteristic early spring heat in South America
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
ReportJennings N, Paterson P, 2023,
How do UK citizens perceive the co-benefits of climate action?
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ReportZachariah M, Kotroni V, Kostas L, et al., 2023,
Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region
, Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy -
Journal articleToumi R, 2023,
John Edward Harries
, Physics Today, Vol: 76, Pages: 53-53, ISSN: 0031-9228 -
Journal articleTakaya Y, Caron L-P, Blake E, et al., 2023,
Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol: 12, Pages: 182-199, ISSN: 2225-6032Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
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Journal articleZhou L, Liu F, Tan Y, et al., 2023,
Aluminum-induced changes in the net carbon fixation and carbon decomposition of a nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium erythraeum
, Biogeochemistry, Vol: 165, Pages: 277-290, ISSN: 0168-2563 -
Journal articleCroasdale K, Grailey K, Jennings N, et al., 2023,
Planning for the perfect storm: perceptions of UK mental health professionals on the increasing impacts of climate change on their service users
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782IntroductionClimate change poses a considerable risk of further increasing the world's mental health burden. The ways that, and extent to which, climate change is affecting mental health service users is poorly known. Mental health professionals (MHP)s' views on the nature of climate-related distress and the need for specialist training to support service users is undetermined globally.MethodsA questionnaire survey was disseminated to an opportunity sample of MHPs based in the United Kingdom (UK). It investigated whether MHPs perceived that the number of service users mentioning climate change as affecting their mental health or emotional distress had increased in the five years prior to 2021, and if they believe it will increase further. The survey explored MHPs’ perceptions of the influence of climate change on service users’ mental health needs, if they perceive this to be rational, and if they feel adequately prepared to manage climate change related mental health problems or emotional distress.ResultsWe surveyed 75 MHPs, including professionals in psychotherapy (38), psychology (19), psychiatry (6). MHPs reported a significant increase in the perceived prevalence of mental health problems or emotional distress related to climate change, believing this increase will continue. MHPs reported a range of impacts on service users due to climate change, typically viewed as a rational response. MHPs felt equipped to manage the consequences of climate change but would benefit from specific training.ConclusionsOur results indicate an increasing incidence of climate-related emotional distress among service users as perceived by MHPs. The expectation among professionals is that this service need is here now but will continue to increase in the future, with potential implications for the provision of training.
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Minelli C, Lam HCY, et al., 2023,
Asthma hospitalisations and heat exposure in England: a case-crossover study during 2002-2019
, Thorax, Vol: 78, Pages: 875-881, ISSN: 0040-6376BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between warm temperature and asthma hospitalisation. They have reported different sex-related and age-related vulnerabilities; nevertheless, little is known about how this effect has changed over time and how it varies in space. This study aims to evaluate the association between asthma hospitalisation and warm temperature and investigate vulnerabilities by age, sex, time and space. METHODS: We retrieved individual-level data on summer asthma hospitalisation at high temporal (daily) and spatial (postcodes) resolutions during 2002-2019 in England from the NHS Digital. Daily mean temperature at 1 km×1 km resolution was retrieved from the UK Met Office. We focused on lag 0-3 days. We employed a case-crossover study design and fitted Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models accounting for possible confounders (rainfall, relative humidity, wind speed and national holidays). RESULTS: After accounting for confounding, we found an increase of 1.11% (95% credible interval: 0.88% to 1.34%) in the asthma hospitalisation risk for every 1°C increase in the ambient summer temperature. The effect was highest for males aged 16-64 (2.10%, 1.59% to 2.61%) and during the early years of our analysis. We also found evidence of a decreasing linear trend of the effect over time. Populations in Yorkshire and the Humber and East and West Midlands were the most vulnerable. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of an association between warm temperature and hospital admission for asthma. The effect has decreased over time with potential explanations including temporal differences in patterns of heat exposure, adaptive mechanisms, asthma management, lifestyle, comorbidities and occupation.
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Journal articleLi Y, Tang Y, Wang S, et al., 2023,
Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723Rapid intensification (RI) is an essential process in the development of strong tropical cyclones and a major challenge in prediction. RI in offshore regions is more threatening to coastal populations and economies. Although much effort has been devoted to studying basin-wide temporal-spatial fluctuations, variations of global RI events in offshore regions remain uncertain. Here, we show that compared with open oceans, where the annual RI counts do not show significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a significant increase in RI events, with the count tripling from 1980 to 2020. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments present more favorable conditions for this trend, and climate models show that global ocean warming has enhanced such changes. This work yields an important finding that an increasing threat of RI in coastal regions has occurred in the preceding decades, which may continue under a future warming climate.
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