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Journal articleItzkowitz N, Gong X, Atilola G, et al., 2023,
Aircraft noise and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality near Heathrow Airport: a case-crossover study
, Environment International, Vol: 177, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0160-4120Aircraft noise causes annoyance and sleep disturbance and there is some evidence of associations between long-term exposures and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated short-term associations between previous day aircraft noise and cardiovascular events in a population of 6.3 million residing near Heathrow Airport using a case-crossover design and exposure data for different times of day and night. We included all recorded hospitalisations (n=442,442) and deaths (n=49,443) in 2014-2018 due to CVD. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs and adjusted for NO2 concentration, temperature, and holidays. We estimated an increase in risk for 10dB increment in noise during the previous evening (Leve OR = 1.007, 95% CI 0.999-1.015), particularly from 22:00-23:00h (OR= 1.007, 95% CI 1.000-1.013), and the early morning hours 04:30-06:00h (OR= 1.012, 95% CI 1.002-1.021) for all CVD admissions, but no significant associations with day-time noise. There was effect modification by age-sex, ethnicity, deprivation, and season, and some suggestion that high noise variability at night was associated with higher risks. Our findings are consistent with proposed mechanisms for short-term impacts of aircraft noise at night on CVD from experimental studies, including sleep disturbance, increases in blood pressure and stress hormone levels and impaired endothelial function.
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ReportKimutai J, Faka DN, Ayabagabo P, et al., 2023,
Limited data prevent assessment of role of climate change in deadly floods affecting highly vulnerable communities around Lake Kivu
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ReportSheehan C, Green T, 2023,
ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure
, ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe dearth of available data on e-motorcycle usage in Africancities is a significant challenge in impact studies of e-motorcycledeployment. The ChargeUp! project aimed to fill this research gapusing operational data from e-motorcycles and battery swap stationsin Nairobi to perform modelling and analysis to determine severalkey outputs. This project included the analysis of: e-motorcycle trips;battery swapping demand; battery charging energy consumption;swap battery charging related emissions for a high renewables andhigh fossil energy mix scenarios; charging related electricity costsfor different tariff scenarios; the effect of a co-ordinated chargingscenario on emissions and tariffs; optimal battery ratios and requirednumbers of swap stations; and a methodology to determine optimalregions for battery swap stations based on trip data.
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Journal articleCheng S, Quilodran-Casas C, Ouala S, et al., 2023,
Machine Learning With Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification for Dynamical Systems: A Review
, IEEE-CAA JOURNAL OF AUTOMATICA SINICA, Vol: 10, Pages: 1361-1387, ISSN: 2329-9266- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 4
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Gómez-Rubio V, Cameletti M, et al., 2023,
A workflow for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic
, The R Journal, Vol: 15, Pages: 89-104, ISSN: 2073-4859COVID-19 related deaths estimates underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares the observed number of deaths versus the number that would be expected if the pandemic did not occur. The expected number of deaths depends on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a workflow using R for estimating and visualising excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed workflow is fast to implement and allows for combining different models and presenting aggregated results based on factors such as age, sex, and spatial location. This makes it a particularly powerful and appealing workflow for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
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ReportBarnes C, Faranda D, Coppola E, et al., 2023,
Limited net role for climate change in heavy spring rainfall in Emilia-Romagna
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ReportKirkpatrick L, Adjiman C, ApSimon H, et al., 2023,
Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution
, Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 40Systems approaches are vital for coordinating decision-making in the face of complex issues because they provide the whole picture view needed to avoid negative unintended consequences and to generate genuine benefits. This paper explains how systems thinking can be used to address environmental pollution and support decision-makers in finding solutions.
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ReportZachariah M, Vautard R, Chandrasekaran R, et al., 2023,
Extreme humid heat in South and Southeast Asia in April 2023, largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities
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OtherYesil B, Theokritoff E, Pringle P, et al., 2023,
Overshoot proofing adaptation policies and plans
<jats:p>With 1.2&#176;C current global warming, it becomes increasingly important to think about overshoot and what this would imply for adaptation. In the face of increasing impacts, more and more thresholds and limits to adaptation will be reached &#8211; but if global warming levels are brought down again through the deployment of negative emission technologies, what does this imply for adaptation?Here, we present a methodology which aims to provide concrete entry points for integrating overshoot risks into adaptation planning, with the objective of strengthening resilience, reducing vulnerability and avoiding maladaptation. We explore concepts such as impact (un)avoidability and (ir)reversibility, key elements of long-term adaptation planning. Ultimately, we aim to develop a step-based approach allowing adaptation planners to formulate and review adaptation policies adequately integrating the concept of overshoot and its implications.</jats:p>
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OtherTheokritoff E, van Maanen N, Andrijevic M, et al., 2023,
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
<jats:p>In a time of ever-intensifying climate change, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome adaptation constraints, namely what makes adaptation challenging. Currently, evidence on constraints focusses on the local level and present-day dynamics. Here, we combine qualitative and case study data with national macro indicators and use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to look at the pace of various scenarios of future socio-economic development. We find that regardless of the scenario, long timescales will be required to overcome constraints, challenging adaptation for decades to come, in particular in countries on the frontline of climate change. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our novel approach allows to ground truth existing indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts (including economic models), improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.</jats:p>
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ReportPhilip S, Kew S, Vautard R, et al., 2023,
Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco & Algeria almost impossible without climate change
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Journal articleStreet OD, 2023,
A structure preserving stochastic perturbation of classical water wave theory
, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol: 447, ISSN: 0167-2789The inclusion of stochastic terms in equations of motion for fluid problems enables a statistical representation of processes which are left unresolved by numerical computation. Here, we derive stochastic equations for the behaviour of surface gravity waves using an approach which is designed to preserve the geometric structure of the equations of fluid motion beneath the surface. In doing so, we find a stochastic equation for the evolution of a velocity potential and, more significantly, demonstrate that the stochastic equations for water wave dynamics have a Hamiltonian structure which mirrors that found by Zakharov for the deterministic theory. This involves a perturbation of the velocity field which, unlike the deterministic velocity, need not be irrotational for the problem to close.
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ReportKimutai J, Barnes C, Zachariah M, et al., 2023,
Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa
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Journal articleQuilodran-Casas C, Arcucci R, 2023,
A data-driven adversarial machine learning for 3D surrogates of unstructured computational fluid dynamic simulations
, PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, Vol: 615, ISSN: 0378-4371 -
Journal articleOluleye O, Bishay D, Kas B, 2023,
Can a hierarchical ordering of alternative technological concepts for decarbonizing industrial energy systems minimize mitigation costs?
, Frontiers in Sustainability, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 2673-4524Integration of alternative technological concepts such as switching to alternative fuels, advanced energy efficiency, and carbon capture & storage in existing industrial energy systems can prove highly effective at minimising emissions; however, their adoption is low since solutions using these concepts raise costs considerably. The hypothesis of this work is a hierarchical combination of these concepts can reduce mitigation cost. To this end a mixed method approach is applied combining energy simulation with a novel Mixed Integer Linear Programming model developed to explore 48 alternative solutions to make industrial energy systems more sustainable. The method was applied to the most common industrial energy systems configurations. Results show that the added cost of integrating alternative technological concepts are lowered when energy efficiency via direct heat recovery is explored first in an optimisation-based hierarchy of options. The hierarchy is advanced energy efficiency before fuel and technology switching or integrating carbon capture and storage. This means process integration can pay for steeper reductions in carbon emissions. Integrating alternative technological concepts optimally and hierarchically reduced emissions by 61%, and costs by 55.7% compared to a partial integration for a heat-only business-as-usual industrial energy systems. Even though switching to an alternative fuel (blue hydrogen) reduces carbon emissions by 72%, costs increase by at least 3% compared to a system using fuel gas and fuel oil. A hierarchical integration of blue hydrogen reduces cost by 47% and carbon emissions by 88.7%. Partial integration of carbon capture and storage reduces carbon emissions by 36% but costs increase by 89%, with full integration using optimisation and the hierarchy costs only increase by 6.3%. therefore, the cost-effectiveness of integrating alternative technological concepts is highly influenced by the hierarchy which seeks to minimise demand fo
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ReportPreston-Allen R, Albini D, Barron L, et al., 2023,
Are urban areas hotspots for pollution from pet parasiticides?
, Are urban areas hotspots for pollution from pet parasiticides?, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Briefing Note 15This briefing considers the environmental impact of pet parasiticides, which are commonly used to kill parasites such as fleas and ticks. It reviews possible routes that chemicals from veterinary parasiticides enter the environment, what impacts they may have on natural ecosystems and how to balance the needs of domestic pets, people, and the environment.
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Journal articleLai T-K, Toumi R, 2023,
Has there been a recent shallowing of tropical cyclones?
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 50, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276Many aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) properties at the surface have been changing but any systematic vertical changes are unknown. Here, we document a recent trend of high thick clouds of TCs. The global inner-core high thick cloud fraction measured by satellite has decreased from 2002 to 2021 by about 10% per decade. The TC inner-core surface rain rate is also found to have decreased during the same period by a similar percentage. This suppression of high thick clouds and rain has been largest during the intensification phase of the strongest TCs. Hence, these two independent and consistent observations suggest that the TC inner-core convection has weakened and that TCs have become shallower recently at least. For this period, the lifetime maximum intensity of major TCs has not changed and this suggests an increased efficiency of the spin-up of TCs.
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ReportSheehan C, Green T, 2023,
Kenya Charging Forward: A brief assessment of Kenya’s e-mobility policy landscape and proposed changes
, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe transport sector’s share of Kenya’s total greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions has been projected to grow from 11% in 2015 to 14.7%by 2030 in a business as usual (BAU) scenario [1]. In line with theKenyan Government’s goal of reducing total GHG emissions by 32%relative to BAU in 2030 [2], it has begun several initiatives to startmitigating its transport emissions, including opportunities relatedto growing its nascent e-mobility sector. The private sector, with arange of around 25 new e-mobility companies [3], has been providingsolutions through the supply of various electric vehicles aimed atserving the local market, while also leading the way in deployingcharging and battery swapping infrastructure.
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ReportOtto F, Zachariah M, Barnes C, 2023,
The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s East Coast
, The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s East Coast -
ReportHarrington LJ, Dean SM, Awatere S, et al., 2023,
The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s East Coast
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ReportHalkyard S, Levey S, Amer H, et al., 2023,
Grantham Institute Outlook 2022-2023
, Grantham Institute Outlook 2022-2023, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham InstituteThe Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.
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Journal articleRiou J, Hauser A, Althaus C, et al., 2023,
Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland
, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, ISSN: 2041-1723The direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population-level mortality is of concern to public health but challenging to quantify. Using data for 2011–2019, we applied Bayesian models to predict the expected number of deaths in Switzerland and compared them with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths from February 2020 to April 2022 (study period). We estimated that COVID-19-related mortality was underestimated by a factor of 0.72 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.46–0.78). After accounting for COVID-19 deaths, the observed mortality was −4% (95% CrI: −8 to 0) lower than expected. The deficit in mortality was concentrated in age groups 40–59 (−12%, 95%CrI: −19 to −5) and 60–69 (−8%, 95%CrI: −15 to −2). Although COVID-19 control measures may have negative effects, after subtracting COVID-19 deaths, there were fewer deaths in Switzerland during the pandemic than expected, suggesting that any negative effects of control measures were offset by the positive effects. These results have important implications for the ongoing debate about the appropriateness of COVID-19 control measures.
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Book chapterHolm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2023,
Coupling of waves to sea surface currents via horizontal density gradients
, Stochastic Transport in Upper Ocean Dynamics(STUOD 2021), Editors: Chapron, Memin, Crisan, Holm, Radomska, Publisher: Springer, Cham, Pages: 109-133, ISBN: 978-3-031-18988-3The mathematical models and numerical simulations reported here are motivated by satellite observations of horizontal gradients of sea surface temperature and salinity that are closely coordinated with the slowly varying envelope of the rapidly oscillating waves. This coordination of gradients of fluid material properties with wave envelopes tends to occur when strong horizontal buoyancy gradients are present. The nonlinear models of this coordinated movement presented here may provide future opportunities for the optimal design of satellite imagery that could simultaneously capture the dynamics of both waves and currents directly.The model derived here appears in two levels of approximation: first for rapidly oscillating waves, and then for their slowly varying envelope (SVE) approximation obtained by using the WKB approach. The WKB wave-current-buoyancy interaction model derived here for a free surface with significant horizontal buoyancy gradients indicates that the mechanism for the emergence of these correlations is the ponderomotive force of the slowly varying envelope of rapidly oscillating waves acting on the surface currents via the horizontal buoyancy gradient. In this model, the buoyancy gradient appears explicitly in the WKB wave momentum, which in turn generates density-weighted potential vorticity whenever the buoyancy gradient is not aligned with the wave-envelope gradient.
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Journal articleGangopadhyay A, Seshadri AK, Toumi R, 2023,
Beneficial role of diurnal smoothing for grid integration of wind power
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1748-9326Smoothing of generation variability, i.e. reduction of variance in the aggregate generation is crucialfor grid integration of large-scale wind power plants. Prior studies of smoothing have focused ongeographical smoothing, based on distance. In contrast, we propose a novel concept ‘diurnalsmoothing’ that depends on spatial variations in the timing of seasonal-mean diurnal cycle peak.Considering the case of India, which experiences a strong diurnal cycle of wind-speed, we showhow spatial heterogeneity in the wind diurnal cycle can be exploited to smooth wind powervariability over and above geographical smoothing. For any given separation distance betweensites, the hourly wind speed correlation is highly variable. Difference in timing of the diurnal cyclepeak is an important factor for explaining this variability and we define smoothing from differentlytimed seasonal-mean diurnal cycle as ‘diurnal smoothing’. We show that apart from separationdistance, the diurnal cycle is crucial for correlation among sites separated by 200 km or more withstrong diurnal cycles (amplitude more than approximately 0.5 m s−1). Thus, diurnal smoothing isa vital factor in the aggregation of large wind power plants, and grid integration is benefited byconsidering (in addition to distance) new wind plant sites with largely separated diurnal cycles,especially those differing by roughly 12 h. Such diurnal smoothing is relevant for regions across theworld with strong wind speed diurnal cycles. Ultimately grid integration depends on variations intotal wind and solar generation and demand. Hence, their combined effects must be studied.
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Journal articleTheokritoff E, Thomas A, Lissner T, et al., 2023,
Interacting adaptation constraints in the Caribbean highlight the importance of sustained adaptation finance
, CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT, Vol: 39, ISSN: 2212-0963 -
Journal articleGong H, Cheng S, Chen Z, et al., 2022,
An efficient digital twin based on machine learning SVD autoencoder and generalised latent assimilation for nuclear reactor physics
, ANNALS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY, Vol: 179, ISSN: 0306-4549- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 12
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ReportBaker W, Acha S, Jennings N, et al., 2022,
Decarbonisation of buildings: Insights from across Europe
, Decarbonisation of buildings: Insights from across Europe, Publisher: The Grantham InstituteThis report considers four key challenges facing the UK in reducing carbon emissions from its building stock, and shares insights from across Europe that have the potential to help the UK to decarbonise and increase the energy efficiency of its buildings.
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ReportRhodes A, Heptonstall P, Speirs J, 2022,
Materials for Energy - An Energy Futures Lab and UKERC Briefing Paper
, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe transition to Net Zero will require substantial quantities of criticalmaterials in order to build and maintain new technologies, from renewablegeneration to batteries for electric vehicles. Materials such as lithiumwill be required in much larger quantities than before, while novelmaterials may need to be developed to replace expensive or scarceconventional materials. This Briefing Paper considers the current availability and development of materials for the energy sector, investigating both current availability and forecasted production of several critical materials and looking at the state of development of novel materials in the energy sector. Four materials considered critical to new energy technologies and the low-carbon transition were investigated for availability based on known reserves and projected future demand: lithium, cobalt, tellurium and copper. These materials were selected to illustrate the key themes that relate to concerns over the demand and supply of those metals and other materials that will be required for the transition to a global low-carbon energy system.
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ReportArnell N, Jonsson G, Oliver T, et al., 2022,
Climate Change, ecosystem impacts and systemic risk
, Climate Change, ecosystem impacts and systemic riskThis report highlights some of the vital dependencies of human societies on ecosystems, the damages that can occur from them as a result of climate change, and the steps required to better understand and characterise the systemic risks to societies that result from such climate change-driven ecosystem damages.
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Journal articleLuo H, Yukuhiro VY, Fernandez PS, et al., 2022,
Role of Ni in PtNi bimetallic electrocatalysts for hydrogen and value-added chemicals coproduction via glycerol electrooxidation
, ACS Catalysis, Vol: 12, Pages: 14492-14506, ISSN: 2155-5435Pt-based bimetallic electrocatalysts are promising candidates to convert surplus glycerol from the biodiesel industry to value-added chemicals and coproduce hydrogen. It is expected that the nature and content of the elements in the bimetallic catalyst can not only affect the reaction kinetics but also influence the product selectivity, providing a way to increase the yield of the desired products. Hence, in this work, we investigate the electrochemical oxidation of glycerol on a series of PtNi nanoparticles with increasing Ni content using a combination of physicochemical structural analysis, electrochemical measurements, operando spectroscopic techniques, and advanced product characterizations. With a moderate Ni content and a homogenously alloyed bimetallic Pt–Ni structure, the PtNi2 catalyst displayed the highest reaction activity among all materials studied in this work. In situ FTIR data show that PtNi2 can activate the glycerol molecule at a more negative potential (0.4 VRHE) than the other PtNi catalysts. In addition, its surface can effectively catalyze the complete C–C bond cleavage, resulting in lower CO poisoning and higher stability. Operando X-ray absorption spectroscopy and UV–vis spectroscopy suggest that glycerol adsorbs strongly onto surface Ni(OH)x sites, preventing their oxidation and activation of oxygen or hydroxyl from water. As such, we propose that the role of Ni in PtNi toward glycerol oxidation is to tailor the electronic structure of the pure Pt sites rather than a bifunctional mechanism. Our experiments provide guidance for the development of bimetallic catalysts toward highly efficient, selective, and stable glycerol oxidation reactions.
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