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Journal articleCao XE, 2023,
One person's trash: Another's treasured education.
, Science, Vol: 381 -
ReportZachariah M, Philip S, Pinto I, et al., 2023,
Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
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Journal articleHeim AB, Bharani T, Konstantinides N, et al., 2023,
AI in search of human help.
, Science, Vol: 381, Pages: 162-163 -
Journal articleZhou Y, Zhou Z, Sun J, et al., 2023,
Ruddlesden-Popper-type perovskite Sr3Fe2O7−δ for enhanced thermochemical energy storage
, Ecomat, Vol: 5Perovskite has been considered a promising thermochemical energy storage material. Such materials can perform redox reactions reversibly under the control of oxygen partial pressure over a wide range of temperatures. Layered perovskites have been poorly studied as energy storage material, although their oxygen species exhibit good oxidation activity. In this work, Ruddlesden-Popper-type quasi-2D perovskite Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> and 3D perovskite SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf> were prepared for the testing of thermochemical energy storage properties. It was shown that the degree of reduction reaction for Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> was much greater than that of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>, with change of non-stoichiometry up to 0.79. The combined effect of thermodynamic parameters for samples on heat storage behavior was studied by Van't Hoff method. The reduction entropy of Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> is much higher than that of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>, which explains the large promotion in the reaction degree of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>. The total reduction enthalpy of Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> is about 2.8 times that of SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>, with both reduction enthalpy and reaction entropy affecting the heat storage capacity. Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> also has an attractive spectral absorption of 96.92% in the range of 300–2500 nm, which makes it advantageous in volumetric solar collector. Overall, Sr<inf>3</inf>Fe<inf>2</inf>O<inf>7-δ</inf> offers improved performance in terms of thermochemical energy storage compared to SrFeO<inf>3-δ</inf>. (
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Journal articleAlford J, Massazza A, Jennings NR, et al., 2023,
Developing global recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across sectors: a Delphi-style study
, The Journal of Climate Change and Health, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-2782Climate change is causing far-reaching yet underappreciated worsening of outcomes across the mental health and wellbeing spectrum. Despite increasing attention to the mental health impacts of climate change, an absence of a clear, cross-sectoral agenda for action has held back progress against the dual and interconnected challenges of supporting human and planetary health. This study aims to serve as an essential first step to address this gap. Harnessing the expertise of a diverse panel of 61 participants, representing 24 nationalities, this study developed and prioritized recommendations for action on climate change and mental health across the relevant sectors of research, policy, healthcare and the third sector, and used a Delphi-style methodology to examine their feasibility and importance. Broadly, the prioritized recommendations highlighted the need to expand the evidence base, work collaboratively across sectors, and raise awareness. While broadly there was consensus on recommendation importance, there was greater variation in the reported feasibility of the recommendations, which differed across settings. Other common themes included the need for cultural and resource contextualization, raising awareness of and addressing mental health co-benefits via climate action, and working with communities with lived experience to develop and implement the findings. As there may be some interdependencies between the recommendations, further work needs to identify how best to implement them. The recommendations serve as a robust and evidence-based framework that can be used as a foundation to devise locally appropriate, concrete implementation strategies matching levels of need and resource. These also serve as a clear call to action for investment from leaders across sectors to ensure they are realized.
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Journal articleItzkowitz N, Gong X, Atilola G, et al., 2023,
Aircraft noise and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality near Heathrow Airport: a case-crossover study
, Environment International, Vol: 177, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0160-4120Aircraft noise causes annoyance and sleep disturbance and there is some evidence of associations between long-term exposures and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated short-term associations between previous day aircraft noise and cardiovascular events in a population of 6.3 million residing near Heathrow Airport using a case-crossover design and exposure data for different times of day and night. We included all recorded hospitalisations (n=442,442) and deaths (n=49,443) in 2014-2018 due to CVD. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs and adjusted for NO2 concentration, temperature, and holidays. We estimated an increase in risk for 10dB increment in noise during the previous evening (Leve OR = 1.007, 95% CI 0.999-1.015), particularly from 22:00-23:00h (OR= 1.007, 95% CI 1.000-1.013), and the early morning hours 04:30-06:00h (OR= 1.012, 95% CI 1.002-1.021) for all CVD admissions, but no significant associations with day-time noise. There was effect modification by age-sex, ethnicity, deprivation, and season, and some suggestion that high noise variability at night was associated with higher risks. Our findings are consistent with proposed mechanisms for short-term impacts of aircraft noise at night on CVD from experimental studies, including sleep disturbance, increases in blood pressure and stress hormone levels and impaired endothelial function.
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ReportSheehan C, Green T, 2023,
ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure
, ChargeUp! Data Swap: Using data from battery swapping e-motorcyclesin Nairobi to assess impacts and plan infrastructure, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe dearth of available data on e-motorcycle usage in Africancities is a significant challenge in impact studies of e-motorcycledeployment. The ChargeUp! project aimed to fill this research gapusing operational data from e-motorcycles and battery swap stationsin Nairobi to perform modelling and analysis to determine severalkey outputs. This project included the analysis of: e-motorcycle trips;battery swapping demand; battery charging energy consumption;swap battery charging related emissions for a high renewables andhigh fossil energy mix scenarios; charging related electricity costsfor different tariff scenarios; the effect of a co-ordinated chargingscenario on emissions and tariffs; optimal battery ratios and requirednumbers of swap stations; and a methodology to determine optimalregions for battery swap stations based on trip data.
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Journal articleYang YJ, Yang WW, Ma X, et al., 2023,
Performance improvement of a solar volumetric reactor with passive thermal management under different solar radiation conditions
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 48, Pages: 20193-20207, ISSN: 0360-3199To alleviate the effect of solar radiation fluctuation on the solar volumetric reactor, phase change material (PCM) is applied to buffer the temperature vibration and improve the stability of thermochemical reactions. In this work, we analyzed the heat flow and distribution characteristics of the conventional double-walled volumetric reactor filled with PCMs (SVR1). We then proposed a novel solar volumetric reactor design (SVR2) to solve the problems of local high temperature, slow charging-discharging rate, and fluctuating methane conversion in various radiation conditions. The heat and mass transfer model coupled with thermochemical reaction kinetics was established to compare the performance of SVR1 and SVR2 under steady state, heat charging-discharging mode, and actual solar radiation fluctuation, respectively. The results show that compared to SVR1, the maximum temperature of SVR2 decreases by 106.3 K, and the minimum methane conversion rate increases from 77.4% to 93.6% under natural solar radiation fluctuation.
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Journal articleCheng S, Quilodran-Casas C, Ouala S, et al., 2023,
Machine Learning With Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification for Dynamical Systems: A Review
, IEEE-CAA JOURNAL OF AUTOMATICA SINICA, Vol: 10, Pages: 1361-1387, ISSN: 2329-9266- Cite
- Citations: 158
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Journal articleKonstantinoudis G, Gómez-Rubio V, Cameletti M, et al., 2023,
A workflow for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic
, The R Journal, Vol: 15, Pages: 89-104, ISSN: 2073-4859COVID-19 related deaths estimates underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares the observed number of deaths versus the number that would be expected if the pandemic did not occur. The expected number of deaths depends on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a workflow using R for estimating and visualising excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed workflow is fast to implement and allows for combining different models and presenting aggregated results based on factors such as age, sex, and spatial location. This makes it a particularly powerful and appealing workflow for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
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ReportBarnes C, Faranda D, Coppola E, et al., 2023,
Limited net role for climate change in heavy spring rainfall in Emilia-Romagna
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ReportKirkpatrick L, Adjiman C, ApSimon H, et al., 2023,
Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution
, Systems thinking for the transition to zero pollution, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, 40Systems approaches are vital for coordinating decision-making in the face of complex issues because they provide the whole picture view needed to avoid negative unintended consequences and to generate genuine benefits. This paper explains how systems thinking can be used to address environmental pollution and support decision-makers in finding solutions.
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ReportZachariah M, Vautard R, Chandrasekaran R, et al., 2023,
Extreme humid heat in South and Southeast Asia in April 2023, largely driven by climate change, detrimental to vulnerable and disadvantaged communities
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OtherTheokritoff E, van Maanen N, Andrijevic M, et al., 2023,
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
<jats:p>In a time of ever-intensifying climate change, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome adaptation constraints, namely what makes adaptation challenging. Currently, evidence on constraints focusses on the local level and present-day dynamics. Here, we combine qualitative and case study data with national macro indicators and use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to look at the pace of various scenarios of future socio-economic development. We find that regardless of the scenario, long timescales will be required to overcome constraints, challenging adaptation for decades to come, in particular in countries on the frontline of climate change. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our novel approach allows to ground truth existing indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts (including economic models), improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.</jats:p>
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OtherYesil B, Theokritoff E, Pringle P, et al., 2023,
Overshoot proofing adaptation policies and plans
<jats:p>With 1.2&#176;C current global warming, it becomes increasingly important to think about overshoot and what this would imply for adaptation. In the face of increasing impacts, more and more thresholds and limits to adaptation will be reached &#8211; but if global warming levels are brought down again through the deployment of negative emission technologies, what does this imply for adaptation?Here, we present a methodology which aims to provide concrete entry points for integrating overshoot risks into adaptation planning, with the objective of strengthening resilience, reducing vulnerability and avoiding maladaptation. We explore concepts such as impact (un)avoidability and (ir)reversibility, key elements of long-term adaptation planning. Ultimately, we aim to develop a step-based approach allowing adaptation planners to formulate and review adaptation policies adequately integrating the concept of overshoot and its implications.</jats:p>
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ReportPhilip S, Kew S, Vautard R, et al., 2023,
Extreme April heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco & Algeria almost impossible without climate change
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Journal articleTong Z, Yang Z, Tong S, et al., 2023,
Investigating the hydraulic performance of slanted axial flow pumps using an enstrophy dissipation-based hybrid optimization approach
, Physics of Fluids, Vol: 35, ISSN: 1070-6631Axial flow pumps (AFPs) are widely employed in urban flood control and drainage systems due to its high discharge at relatively low heads. As off-design condition becomes more common in real operations, we proposed an enstrophy dissipation-based hybrid optimization (EDHO) approach, which combines both the advantage of sparrow search algorithm and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III (NSGA-ΙΙΙ) to enlarge the Preferred Operating Range (POR) of a slanted axial flow pump (SAFP). The overall hydraulic performance was optimized with the proposed EDHO approach with a special focus on energy loss mechanism. According to the analysis, eddy dissipation occupied the most energy loss under partial loads, while shear dissipation also contributed a lot under overload conditions especially around impellers. It is demonstrated that the POR of SAFP was significantly improved after optimization. In particular, the available operation interval was broadened, and the corresponding head and efficiency were remarkably increased by refining the impeller and diffuser profiles. In contrast with NSGA-II, NSGA-III, and multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, the novel hybrid algorithm showed significantly better convergence performance, solution diversity, and stability.
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Journal articleStreet OD, 2023,
A structure preserving stochastic perturbation of classical water wave theory
, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol: 447, ISSN: 0167-2789The inclusion of stochastic terms in equations of motion for fluid problems enables a statistical representation of processes which are left unresolved by numerical computation. Here, we derive stochastic equations for the behaviour of surface gravity waves using an approach which is designed to preserve the geometric structure of the equations of fluid motion beneath the surface. In doing so, we find a stochastic equation for the evolution of a velocity potential and, more significantly, demonstrate that the stochastic equations for water wave dynamics have a Hamiltonian structure which mirrors that found by Zakharov for the deterministic theory. This involves a perturbation of the velocity field which, unlike the deterministic velocity, need not be irrotational for the problem to close.
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ReportKimutai J, Barnes C, Zachariah M, et al., 2023,
Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa
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Journal articleTang XY, Yang WW, Ma X, et al., 2023,
An integrated modeling method for membrane reactors and optimization study of operating conditions
, Energy, Vol: 268, ISSN: 0360-5442This study proposes an integrated membrane reactor modeling method based on thermodynamic equilibrium to investigate the enhancement potential of membrane reactors relative to original reactors. The modeling method is implemented by MATLAB codes, where local reaction equilibrium is calculated by the minimum Gibbs free energy principle, and product separation is determined by iterative convergence. Combined with the developed and validated methane membrane reforming reactor model, the reaction operating conditions are parametrically analyzed and optimized by GA and NSGA-II. The results show that pressure-driven hydrogen recovery enhancement is the key to improving membrane reactor performance. The reference reaction conditions given by the NSGA-II decision method are similar to those given by GA, concentrated in a temperature range of 702.5–952.0 K, a pressure range of 805.7–1077.8 kPa, and a steam-to-methane ratio range of 1.2–9.9. The membrane reactor has the potential to achieve a hydrogen yield ratio of 4.0 and an outlet hydrogen molar fraction of 79.7% simultaneously at low temperature and high pressure, which is unachievable in the original reactor. Furthermore, the Pareto solution set of reactor performance obtained by NSGA-II provides the reference for the theoretical design of reactors and their systems.
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Journal articleQuilodran-Casas C, Arcucci R, 2023,
A data-driven adversarial machine learning for 3D surrogates of unstructured computational fluid dynamic simulations
, PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS, Vol: 615, ISSN: 0378-4371- Cite
- Citations: 4
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Journal articleOluleye O, Bishay D, Kas B, 2023,
Can a hierarchical ordering of alternative technological concepts for decarbonizing industrial energy systems minimize mitigation costs?
, Frontiers in Sustainability, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 2673-4524Integration of alternative technological concepts such as switching to alternative fuels, advanced energy efficiency, and carbon capture & storage in existing industrial energy systems can prove highly effective at minimising emissions; however, their adoption is low since solutions using these concepts raise costs considerably. The hypothesis of this work is a hierarchical combination of these concepts can reduce mitigation cost. To this end a mixed method approach is applied combining energy simulation with a novel Mixed Integer Linear Programming model developed to explore 48 alternative solutions to make industrial energy systems more sustainable. The method was applied to the most common industrial energy systems configurations. Results show that the added cost of integrating alternative technological concepts are lowered when energy efficiency via direct heat recovery is explored first in an optimisation-based hierarchy of options. The hierarchy is advanced energy efficiency before fuel and technology switching or integrating carbon capture and storage. This means process integration can pay for steeper reductions in carbon emissions. Integrating alternative technological concepts optimally and hierarchically reduced emissions by 61%, and costs by 55.7% compared to a partial integration for a heat-only business-as-usual industrial energy systems. Even though switching to an alternative fuel (blue hydrogen) reduces carbon emissions by 72%, costs increase by at least 3% compared to a system using fuel gas and fuel oil. A hierarchical integration of blue hydrogen reduces cost by 47% and carbon emissions by 88.7%. Partial integration of carbon capture and storage reduces carbon emissions by 36% but costs increase by 89%, with full integration using optimisation and the hierarchy costs only increase by 6.3%. therefore, the cost-effectiveness of integrating alternative technological concepts is highly influenced by the hierarchy which seeks to minimise demand fo
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ReportPreston-Allen R, Albini D, Barron L, et al., 2023,
Are urban areas hotspots for pollution from pet parasiticides?
, Are urban areas hotspots for pollution from pet parasiticides?, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute, Briefing Note 15This briefing considers the environmental impact of pet parasiticides, which are commonly used to kill parasites such as fleas and ticks. It reviews possible routes that chemicals from veterinary parasiticides enter the environment, what impacts they may have on natural ecosystems and how to balance the needs of domestic pets, people, and the environment.
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Journal articleLai T-K, Toumi R, 2023,
Has there been a recent shallowing of tropical cyclones?
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 50, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0094-8276Many aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) properties at the surface have been changing but any systematic vertical changes are unknown. Here, we document a recent trend of high thick clouds of TCs. The global inner-core high thick cloud fraction measured by satellite has decreased from 2002 to 2021 by about 10% per decade. The TC inner-core surface rain rate is also found to have decreased during the same period by a similar percentage. This suppression of high thick clouds and rain has been largest during the intensification phase of the strongest TCs. Hence, these two independent and consistent observations suggest that the TC inner-core convection has weakened and that TCs have become shallower recently at least. For this period, the lifetime maximum intensity of major TCs has not changed and this suggests an increased efficiency of the spin-up of TCs.
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ReportSheehan C, Green T, 2023,
Kenya Charging Forward: A brief assessment of Kenya’s e-mobility policy landscape and proposed changes
, Publisher: Energy Futures LabThe transport sector’s share of Kenya’s total greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions has been projected to grow from 11% in 2015 to 14.7%by 2030 in a business as usual (BAU) scenario [1]. In line with theKenyan Government’s goal of reducing total GHG emissions by 32%relative to BAU in 2030 [2], it has begun several initiatives to startmitigating its transport emissions, including opportunities relatedto growing its nascent e-mobility sector. The private sector, with arange of around 25 new e-mobility companies [3], has been providingsolutions through the supply of various electric vehicles aimed atserving the local market, while also leading the way in deployingcharging and battery swapping infrastructure.
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ReportOtto F, Zachariah M, Barnes C, 2023,
The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s East Coast
, The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s East Coast -
ReportHalkyard S, Levey S, Amer H, et al., 2023,
Grantham Institute Outlook 2022-2023
, Grantham Institute Outlook 2022-2023, www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham InstituteThe Grantham Institute Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.
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ReportHarrington LJ, Dean SM, Awatere S, et al., 2023,
The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s East Coast
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Journal articleTong Z, Liu H, Cao XE, et al., 2023,
Cavitation diagnosis for water distribution pumps: An early-stage approach combing vibration signal-based neural network with high-speed photography
, Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, Vol: 55, ISSN: 2213-1388As an essential component of municipal water distribution systems, centrifugal water pumps are of great significance to achieve urban sustainability. Cavitation is a common phenomenon in water pumps that cause energy inefficiency and mechanical failures. To prevent cavitation damages, an early-stage cavitation diagnosis approach combing vibration signal-based neural network with high-speed photography was proposed. An adaptive neural network was developed using vibration measurement and cavitation states predefined using high-speed cavitation images collected at an in-house laboratory pump system with transparent casings. The correlation among synchronized cavitation images, vibration signals and pump performance was investigated. Our analysis shows that the head-drop detection method commonly used in the industry greatly underestimated the damage of cavitation with the fact that a 3% head drop corresponded to a cavitation intensity of 42.1%. Both the number of predefined cavitation states for training and the structure of neural networks greatly affected diagnosis accuracy and computing load. A two-stage ANN structure with eight cavitation states displayed the best performance with a much faster training speed compared with common shallow learning methods and consistent diagnosis accuracy of over 95% in real time. A water-energy-carbon nexus model was built to demonstrate provincial energy-saving potentials associated with cavitation prevention in China.
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Journal articleCao XE, Ngetich GC, 2023,
The need to normalize failure.
, Nat Rev Chem, Vol: 7, Pages: 69-70
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