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  • Journal article
    Mazzei A, Konstantinoudis G, Kreis C, Diezi M, Ammann RA, Zwahlen M, Kuehni C, Spycher BDet al., 2022,

    Childhood cancer and residential proximity to petrol stations: a nationwide registry-based case-control study in Switzerland and an updated meta-analysis

    , INTERNATIONAL ARCHIVES OF OCCUPATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH, Vol: 95, Pages: 927-938, ISSN: 0340-0131
  • Journal article
    Yang AJK, Tedford EW, Olsthoorn J, Lefauve A, Lawrence GAet al., 2022,

    Velocity perturbations and Reynolds stresses in Holmboe instabilities

    , PHYSICS OF FLUIDS, Vol: 34, ISSN: 1070-6631
  • Journal article
    Xu H, Tian Z, Sun L, Ye Q, Ragno E, Bricker J, Mao G, Tan J, Wang J, Ke Q, Wang S, Toumi Ret al., 2022,

    Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai

    , Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 22, Pages: 2347-2358, ISSN: 1561-8633

    Compound flooding is generated when two or more flood drivers occur simultaneously or in close succession. Multiple drivers can amplify each other and lead to greater impacts than when they occur in isolation. A better understanding of the interdependence between flood drivers would facilitate a more accurate assessment of compound flood risk in coastal regions. This study employed the D-Flow Flexible Mesh model to simulate the historical peak coastal water level, consisting of the storm surge, astronomical tide, and relative sea level rise (RSLR), in Shanghai over the period 1961–2018. It then applies a copula-based methodology to calculate the joint probability of peak water level and rainfall during historical tropical cyclones (TCs) and to calculate the marginal contribution of each driver. The results indicate that the astronomical tide is the leading driver of peak water level, followed by the contribution of the storm surge. In the longer term, the RSLR has significantly amplified the peak water level. This study investigates the dependency of compound flood events in Shanghai on multiple drivers, which helps us to better understand compound floods and provides scientific references for flood risk management and for further studies. The framework developed in this study could be applied to other coastal cities that face the same constraint of unavailable water level records.
  • Journal article
    Cheng S, Jin Y, Harrison SP, Quilodran-Casas C, Prentice IC, Guo Y-K, Arcucci Ret al., 2022,

    Parameter flexible wildfire prediction using machine learning techniques:forward and inverse modelling

    , Remote Sensing, ISSN: 2072-4292
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    An analytic model of the tropical cyclone outer size

    , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2397-3722

    There are simple conceptual models of tropical cyclone intensification and potential intensity. However, such a framework has been lacking to describe the evolution of the outer circulation. An analytic growth model of the tropical cyclone outer size is derived from the angular momentum equation. The growth model fits a full-physics idealized tropical cyclone simulation. The lifecycle composite of the best-track outer size growth shows a strong super-linear nature, which supports an exponential growth as predicted by the growth model. The climatology of outer size growth measured by the radius of gale-force wind in the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific during the period 2004–2017, can be understood in terms of four growth factors of the model: the initial size, the growth duration, the mean growth latitude, and the mean top-of-boundary-layer effective local inflow angle. All four variables are significantly different between the two basins. The observed lifetime maximum size follows a lognormal distribution, which is in line with the law of the proportionate effect of this exponential growth model. The growth model fits the observed outer size well in global basins. The time constant of the exponential size growth is approximately equal to the product of the Coriolis parameter and the mean effective inflow angle above the boundary layer. Further sensitivity experiments with the growth model suggest that the interannual variability of the global lifetime maximum size is largely driven by the variation of growth duration.
  • Journal article
    Lok CCF, Chan JCL, Toumi R, 2022,

    Importance of air-sea coupling in simulating tropical cyclone intensity at landfall

    , Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol: 39, Pages: 1777-1786, ISSN: 0256-1530

    An atmosphere-only model system for making seasonal prediction and projecting future intensities of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the South China coast is upgraded by including ocean and wave models. A total of 642 TCs have been re-simulated using the new system to produce a climatology of TC intensity in the South China Sea. Detailed comparisons of the simulations from the atmosphere-only and the fully coupled systems reveal that the inclusion of the additional ocean and wave models enable differential sea surface temperature responses to various TC characteristics such as translational speed and size. In particular, interaction with the ocean does not necessarily imply a weakening of the TC, with the coastal bathymetry possibly playing a role in causing a near-shore intensification of the TC. These results suggest that to simulate the evolution of TC structure more accurately, it is essential to use an air-sea coupled model instead of an atmosphere-only model.
  • Report
    Teng F, Chhachhi SAURAB, Ge PUDONG, Graham J, Gunduz Det al., 2022,

    Balancing privacy and access to smart meter data: an Energy Futures Lab briefing paper

    Digitalising the energy system is expected to be a vital component of achieving the UK’s climate change targets. Smart meter data, in particular, is seen a key enabler of the transition to more dynamic, cost-effective, cost-reflective, and decarbonised electricity. However, access to this data faces a challenge due to consumer privacy concerns. This Briefing Paper investigates four key elements of smart meter data privacy: existing data protection regulations; the personal information embedded within smart meter data; consumer privacy concerns; and privacy-preserving techniques that could be incorporated alongside existing mechanisms to minimise or eliminate potential privacy infringements.
  • Journal article
    Gangopadhyay A, Sparks NJ, Toumi R, Seshadri AKet al., 2022,

    Risk assessment of wind droughts over India

    , Current Science, Vol: 122, Pages: 1145-1153, ISSN: 0011-3891

    Wind power growth makes it essential to simulateweather variability and its impacts on the electricitygrid. Low-probability, high-impact weather events suchas a wind drought are important but difficult to identify based on limited historical datasets. A stochasticweather generator, Imperial College Weather Generator (IMAGE), is employed to identify extreme eventsthrough long-period simulations. IMAGE capturesmean, spatial correlation and seasonality in wind speedand estimates return periods of extreme wind eventsover India. Simulations show that when Rajasthan experiences wind drought, southern India continues tohave wind, and vice versa. Regional grid-scale winddroughts could be avoided if grids are strongly interconnected across the country.
  • Journal article
    Bozal-Ginesta C, Rao RR, Mesa CA, Wang Y, Zhao Y, Hu G, Anton-Garcia D, Stephens IEL, Reisner E, Brudvig GW, Wang D, Durrant JRet al., 2022,

    Spectroelectrochemistry of Water Oxidation Kinetics in Molecularversus Heterogeneous Oxide Iridium Electrocatalysts

    , JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 144, Pages: 8454-8459, ISSN: 0002-7863
  • Journal article
    Scott SB, Rao RR, Moon C, Sorensen JE, Kibsgaard J, Shao-Horn Y, Chorkendorff Iet al., 2022,

    The low overpotential regime of acidic water oxidation part I: the importance of O<sub>2</sub> detection

    , ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 1977-1987, ISSN: 1754-5692
  • Journal article
    Scott SB, Sorensen JE, Rao RR, Moon C, Kibsgaard J, Shao-Horn Y, Chorkendorff Iet al., 2022,

    The low overpotential regime of acidic water oxidation part II: trends in metal and oxygen stability numbers

    , ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 1988-2001, ISSN: 1754-5692
  • Journal article
    Rao RR, Corby S, Bucci A, Garcia-Tecedor M, Mesa CA, Rossmeisl J, Gimenez S, Lloret-Fillol J, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2022,

    Spectroelectrochemical analysis of the water oxidation mechanism on doped nickel oxides

    , Journal of the American Chemical Society, Vol: 144, Pages: 7622-7633, ISSN: 0002-7863

    Metal oxides and oxyhydroxides exhibit state-of-the-art activity for the oxygen evolution reaction (OER); however, their reaction mechanism, particularly the relationship between charging of the oxide and OER kinetics, remains elusive. Here, we investigate a series of Mn-, Co-, Fe-, and Zn-doped nickel oxides using operando UV–vis spectroscopy coupled with time-resolved stepped potential spectroelectrochemistry. The Ni2+/Ni3+ redox peak potential is found to shift anodically from Mn- < Co- < Fe- < Zn-doped samples, suggesting a decrease in oxygen binding energetics from Mn- to Zn-doped samples. At OER-relevant potentials, using optical absorption spectroscopy, we quantitatively detect the subsequent oxidation of these redox centers. The OER kinetics was found to have a second-order dependence on the density of these oxidized species, suggesting a chemical rate-determining step involving coupling of two oxo species. The intrinsic turnover frequency per oxidized species exhibits a volcano trend with the binding energy of oxygen on the Ni site, having a maximum activity of ∼0.05 s–1 at 300 mV overpotential for the Fe-doped sample. Consequently, we propose that for Ni centers that bind oxygen too strongly (Mn- and Co-doped oxides), OER kinetics is limited by O–O coupling and oxygen desorption, while for Ni centers that bind oxygen too weakly (Zn-doped oxides), OER kinetics is limited by the formation of oxo groups. This study not only experimentally demonstrates the relation between electroadsorption free energy and intrinsic kinetics for OER on this class of materials but also highlights the critical role of oxidized species in facilitating OER kinetics.
  • Journal article
    Lee TH, Rao RR, Pacalaj RA, Wilson AA, Durrant JRet al., 2022,

    A Dual Functional Polymer Interlayer Enables Near-Infrared Absorbing Organic Photoanodes for Solar Water Oxidation

    , ADVANCED ENERGY MATERIALS, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1614-6832
  • Journal article
    Kotova L, Costa MM, Jacob D, Hewitt C, Newton P, Garrett N, New S, Parfitt R, Dunbar T, Bessembinder J, Toumi R, Buonocore M, Krzic A, Terrado Met al., 2022,

    Climateurope festival: an innovative way of linking science and society

    , Climate Services, Vol: 26, ISSN: 2405-8807

    The Climateurope Festivals were designed to create synergies between different European, national and international initiatives in the fields of Earth-system modelling & Climate Services and enhance the transfer of information between suppliers and users. It gave an opportunity to display best in class outcomes and engage in world class networking in a less rigid environment than a scientific conference.A number of formats were adopted in the Festival, from traditional impulse talks to innovative interactive sessions, and the thought-provoking discussions allowed the participants to share their experiences and knowledge around the advantages and challenges that Climate Services face within different sectors.Three Climateurope Festivals were originally planned to be held across Europe. Two Festivals were successfully organised, the first in Valencia in 2017, and the second in Belgrade in 2018. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns and travel restrictions, the third and final Festival was held online as a series of virtual web-based Festivals in 2020/2021.The Festivals were highly valued by participants. There was a strong desire by the Climateurope network to continue a science-stakeholder dialogue and make the Climateurope Festivals a regular event.
  • Report
    Levey S, Gilbert A, Amer H, Wynton L, Jennings N, Petersen Ket al., 2022,

    Grantham Institute Outlook 2021-2022

    , Grantham Institute Outlook 2021-2022, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: Grantham Institute

    The Grantham Institute's annual Outlook magazine provides an overview of the climate and environmental research and activities underway at Imperial College London, encompassing both recent achievements and future plans.
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    More tropical cyclones are striking coasts with major intensities at landfall

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322

    In this study we show that the number of annual global tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls with major landfall intensity (LI≥50 m s-1) has nearly doubled from 1982 to 2020. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of global major landfalling TCs has been increasing by 0.8 m s-1 per decade (p<0.05), but this significance of intensity change disappears at landfall (0.3 m s-1 per decade, p=0.69). The lack of a significant LI trend is caused by the much larger variance of LI than that of LMI in all basins and explains why a significant count change of TCs with major intensity at landfall has only now emerged. Basin-wide TC trends of intensity and spatial distribution have been reported, but this long-term major TC landfall count change may be the most socio-economic significant.
  • Report
    Kallitsis E, Lander L, Edge J, Bravo Diaz L, Brown A, Kelsall G, Offer G, Korre Aet al., 2022,

    Safe and sustainable lithium-ion batteries

    , Safe and Sustainable Lithium-ion Batteries, Publisher: Imperial College London - Energy Futures Lab

    The transition to clean energy and electric mobility is driving unprecedented demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). This paper investigates the safety and sustainability of LIBs, exploring ways of reducing their impact on the environment and ensuring they do not pose a danger to health of workers or users.
  • Report
    Morris O, Barquín J, Belgrano A, Blanchard J, Bull C, Layer-Dobra K, Lauridsen R, O’Gorman E, Guõbergsson G, Woodward Get al., 2022,

    New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon

    , New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 37

    This briefing paper considers the alarming declines in fish stocks in recent years, and how holistic, integrated approaches can help manage fish stocks within biologically sustainable limits. Using Atlantic salmon as a case study, the authors highlight the challenges facing fisheries management and conservation, and the implications for policy and management.
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Linden PF, 2022,

    Experimental properties of continuously forced, shear-driven, stratified turbulence. Part 1. Mean flows, self-organisation, turbulent fractions

    , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 937, ISSN: 0022-1120
  • Journal article
    Lefauve A, Linden PF, 2022,

    Experimental properties of continuously forced, shear-driven, stratified turbulence. Part 2. Energetics, anisotropy, parameterisation

    , JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS, Vol: 937, ISSN: 0022-1120
    • Cite
    • Citations: 12
  • Journal article
    Wang S, Toumi R, 2022,

    On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322

    It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.
  • Journal article
    Buizza C, Casas CQ, Nadler P, Mack J, Marrone S, Titus Z, Le Cornec C, Heylen E, Dur T, Ruiz LB, Heaney C, Lopez JAD, Kumar KSS, Arcucci Ret al., 2022,

    Data Learning: Integrating Data Assimilation and Machine Learning

    , JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE, Vol: 58, ISSN: 1877-7503
    • Cite
    • Citations: 72
  • Report
    Trask A, Hanna R, Rhodes A, 2022,

    The future of home heating: The roles of heat pumps and hydrogen

    , The Future of Home Heating: The Roles of Heat Pumps and Hydrogen

    In this Briefing Paper, the prospectsfor the future of home heating areanalysed with specific reference toheat pumps and hydrogen heating.The report is based on extensiveliterature surrounding the topic ofdecarbonisation of the heat sectorin the UK and will discuss thevarious advantages, challenges, andtechnicalities surrounding the twotechnologies. The evidence gatheredand discussed culminates in a set ofrecommendations that prioritise keyareas that require addressing overthe course of the next decade.
  • Journal article
    Konstantinoudis G, Cameletti M, Gómez-Rubio V, León Gómez I, Pirani M, Baio G, Larrauri A, Riou J, Egger M, Vineis P, Blangiardo Met al., 2022,

    Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries

    , Nature Communications, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2041-1723

    The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in thefirst stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.
  • Journal article
    Vonrueti N, Rao R, Giordano L, Shao-Horn Y, Aschauer Uet al., 2022,

    Implications of Nonelectrochemical Reaction Steps on the Oxygen Evolution Reaction: Oxygen Dimer Formation on Perovskite Oxide and Oxynitride Surfaces

    , ACS CATALYSIS, Vol: 12, Pages: 1433-1442, ISSN: 2155-5435
  • Working paper
    Konstantinoudis G, Gómez-Rubio V, Cameletti M, Pirani M, Baio G, Blangiardo Met al., 2022,

    A framework for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    , Publisher: arXiv

    COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the assumption that the pandemic did not occur. Expected deaths had the pandemic not occurred depend on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a framework using R to estimate and visualise excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed framework is fast to implement and allows combining different models and presenting the results in any age, sex, spatial and temporal aggregation desired. This makes it particularly powerful and appealing for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
  • Journal article
    Rai U, Oluleye G, Hawkes A, 2022,

    An optimisation model to determine the capacity of a distributed energy resource to contract with a balancing services aggregator

    , Applied Energy, Vol: 306, Pages: 1-22, ISSN: 0306-2619

    Electricity systems require a real-time balance between generation and demand for electricity. In the past, changing the output of larger generators has been the primary means of achieving this balance, but more recently, smaller distributed energy resources (DERs) are becoming a contributor. As electricity generation becomes more intermittent due to the uptake of renewables, the task of balancing the electricity system is becoming more challenging. As such, there will be a greater need for DERs for grid balancing in future. DERs may be delivered via aggregators for this purpose, where several individual resources are grouped to be traded in contracts with a System Operator (SO). This paper presents a novel framework for DERs aggregators to determine by optimisation the capacity of a generating unit to contract with the SO, using mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP). Results show the site revenue increases between 6.2% and 29.8% compared to the heuristic approach previously employed. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of temporal resolution of demand characterisation on results, showing that increased resolution improves accuracy significantly, and reduces the estimate of capacity that the site should contract with the aggregator.
  • Journal article
    Katayama Y, Kubota R, Rao RR, Hwang J, Giordano L, Morinaga A, Okanishi T, Muroyama H, Matsui T, Shao-Horn Y, Eguchi Ket al., 2021,

    Direct Observation of Surface-Bound Intermediates During Methanol Oxidation on Platinum Under Alkaline Conditions

    , JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY C, Vol: 125, Pages: 26321-26331, ISSN: 1932-7447
  • Journal article
    Heydari S, Konstantinoudis G, Behsoodi AW, 2021,

    Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on bike-sharing demand and hire time: Evidence from Santander Cycles in London

    , PLOS ONE, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1932-6203
  • Journal article
    Bozal-Ginesta C, Rao RR, Mesa CA, Liu X, Hillman SAJ, Stephens IEL, Durrant JRet al., 2021,

    Redox-state kinetics in water-oxidation IrOx electrocatalysts measured by operando spectroelectrochemistry

    , ACS Catalysis, Vol: 11, Pages: 15013-15025, ISSN: 2155-5435

    Hydrous iridium oxides (IrOx) are the best oxygen evolution electrocatalysts available for operation in acidic environments. In this study, we employ time-resolved operando spectroelectrochemistry to investigate the redox-state kinetics of IrOx electrocatalyst films for both water and hydrogen peroxide oxidation. Three different redox species involving Ir3+, Ir3.x+, Ir4+, and Ir4.y+ are identified spectroscopically, and their concentrations are quantified as a function of applied potential. The generation of Ir4.y+ states is found to be the potential-determining step for catalytic water oxidation, while H2O2 oxidation is observed to be driven by the generation of Ir4+ states. The reaction kinetics for water oxidation, determined from the optical signal decays at open circuit, accelerates from ∼20 to <0.5 s with increasing applied potential above 1.3 V versus reversible hydrogen electrode [i.e., turnover frequencies (TOFs) per active Ir state increasing from 0.05 to 2 s–1]. In contrast, the reaction kinetics for H2O2 is found to be almost independent of the applied potential (increasing from 0.1 to 0.3 s–1 over a wider potential window), indicative of a first-order reaction mechanism. These spectroelectrochemical data quantify the increase of both the density of active Ir4.y+ states and the TOFs of these states with applied positive potential, resulting in the observed sharp turn on of catalytic water oxidation current. We reconcile these data with the broader literature while providing a unique kinetic insight into IrOx electrocatalytic reaction mechanisms, indicating a first-order reaction mechanism for H2O2 oxidation driven by Ir4+ states and a higher-order reaction mechanism involving the cooperative interaction of multiple Ir4.y+ states for water oxidation.

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