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An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling to Inform Policy-Making: an introduction to modelling for public health professionals, and an introduction to public health for modellers

Organised by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Modelling Methodology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (formerly the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling), with speakers from HPRUs in Immunisation and Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance.

- Date: Thursday 28 March 2019
- Times: 09:30 for 10:00 start, 17:30 end
- Location: Imperial College London, Paddington, W2 1PG
- Cost: free of charge
- 5 CPD points applied for (TBC)
- Deadline for registration: Friday 15 February 2019 (places will be confirmed shortly after this date)
- Please register here by Friday 15 February

As infectious-disease modelling becomes more mainstream, including through the development of user-friendly tools, it is increasingly important for public health professionals to understand what modelling can and cannot do, what its data requirements are, and how to critically appraise models. The best models are not necessarily those that are the most complicated or have the prettiest graphics!

It is also important for modellers to understand the context and challenges of public health science: the questions that policy-makers need answered, the sort of data that are available, the types of public health interventions that are feasible, etc.

The course consists of lectures introducing basic concepts in infectious-disease modelling, illustrated by examples including Ebola, influenza, TB, hepatitis, antimicrobial resistance, healthcare-associated infections, vaccine-preventable infections, and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Topics include use of models for cost-effectiveness evaluation, evidence synthesis, real-time analysis of outbreaks, scenario analysis, and informing policy; why infectious diseases are fundamentally different from non-infectious diseases and require specialised analysis; how different types of models represent the natural history of infections and heterogeneities in population risk.

Speakers will be Anne Cori (Imperial College London), Pete Dodd (Sheffield), Peter Grove (retired; formerly Department of Health), Deirdre Hollingsworth (Oxford), Mark Jit (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine & Public Health England), Shevanthi Nayagam (Imperial College London), Julie Robotham (Public Health England), and Peter White (Public Health England & Imperial College London). The speakers have internationally-recognised expertise and are members of national and international expert groups.

Who should attend?

The course will be of particular interest to

  • Public-health and disease-control professionals needing an insight into modelling analysis
  • Mathematicians and physical scientists interested in applying their skills to infectious diseases
  • Infectious disease modellers interested in learning about the applied side of the discipline
  • Health economists who need to understand how infectious-disease dynamics require appropriate models for analysis