ICEPT staff and PhD students publish widely in a range of academic journals, policy reports and technical papers.
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Journal articleTan Z, Oluleye G, 2026,
Evaluating market-based interventions for heavy-duty zero-emission truck adoption under consumer heterogeneity
, Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal, Vol: 80, ISSN: 2215-0986This research aims to assess the effects of different market-based interventions on accelerating the adoption of heavy-duty zero-emission trucks (ZETs). A novel agent-based model is developed and applied to simulate heterogeneous consumer choices across three heavy-duty truck segments, namely 49t tractor-trailers, 31t dump trucks, and 18t straight trucks, while accounting for perceived risks. The analysis also considers three powertrain options: internal combustion engine trucks, battery electric trucks, and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. The assessment covers 56 policy scenarios, including hydrogen subsidies, purchase subsidies, electricity subsidies, operational subsidies, diesel taxes, and various combinations of these interventions. The results indicate that while subsidies are effective in promoting ZET adoption, they are costly; however, diesel taxation can help finance these measures. Therefore, policy combinations appear to be more effective. The analysis further shows that the effectiveness of interventions may diminish over time and that better alignment between specific policy instruments and truck types may improve policy efficiency. The simulation also reveals competition between different ZET technologies, which may lead to policy inefficiencies. This research contributes to the literature by demonstrating the impacts of market-based interventions on adoption behaviour beyond total cost of ownership calculations.
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Journal articleBrighty A, Jalil-Vega F, Kameid NR, et al., 2026,
Modelling UK air quality implications of decarbonisation using hydrogen
, Energy Policy, Vol: 213, ISSN: 0301-4215Many air pollutants are directly or indirectly caused by energy production and consumption. There is concern that decarbonising economies by replacing fossil fuel with hydrogen combustion could lead to higher pollutant emissions than by an electrification strategy. This study examines the implications of adopting hydrogen. Future UK energy scenarios, with varying levels of hydrogen, have been produced using the UK TIMES energy systems model, and a link established to the air pollution model UKIAM (UK Integrated Assessment Model). Using this interface, air pollutant emissions from the energy sector have been derived and superimposed on non-energy contributions to map concentrations and estimate the resulting exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 pollution in the UK and associated health benefits. All net zero scenarios achieve a substantial improvement in air quality, with a maximum of 0.3 μg m−3 contribution to PM2.5 population-weighted mean concentrations from hydrogen production and use. This depends on the hydrogen technologies used: as a worst case, hydrogen could eliminate 50% of the economic benefits resulting from improved air quality under net zero measures.This disbenefit arises despite emission factors for hydrogen production and use meeting potential regulatory limits for NOx. However technological improvements could possibly reduce emissions very substantially. Attention should turn to understand where hydrogen is used to displace other future or existing energy sources. Other sources of PM2.5 emissions could be potentially more important for influencing PM2.5 concentrations, such as road transport non-exhaust emissions and biomass combustion and should be considered carefully in future energy scenarios.
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Journal articleOuyang Z, Jackson RB, Saunois M, et al., 2025,
The global hydrogen budget
, NATURE, Vol: 648, ISSN: 0028-0836 -
Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Combined warming index energy system analysis framework for methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate uncertainty
, MethodsX, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2215-0161Fossil fuels dominate the production of hydrogen and will continue to contribute in a decarbonised future. Blue hydrogen production from natural gas with carbon capture and storage technology applied is seen as the major route for natural gas in a future Hydrogen Economy. Methane leakage rate in natural gas supply chains and carbon capture rate are two critical parameters for the success of blue hydrogen. Despite this, the linked effect of the variables are difficult to identify, especially in terms of their impacts on decarbonisation metrics within the energy system. We formulate a new Combined Warming Index (CWI) measure and develop a framework for analysing the influence of methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate on blue hydrogen viability and other relevant energy system characteristics.Framework outline:• Investigate energy system scenarios within a range of methane leakage rates and carbon capture rates (varying Combined Warming Indices [CWI]) on blue hydrogen.• Analyse important energy system dynamic parameter indicators versus the Combined Warming Index (CWI).• Resultant energy system trends for methane leakage rates and carbon capture rates analysed against Combined Warming Index (CWI) establish unique property envelopes that reveal the state of the energy system at conditions and periods of interest.
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Journal articleJohnson N, Liebreich M, Kammen DM, et al., 2025,
Publisher Correction: Realistic roles for hydrogen in the future energy transition
, Nature Reviews Clean Technology, Vol: 1, Pages: 903-903 -
Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Impact of methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate on blue hydrogen sustainability using combined warming index
, Applied Energy, Vol: 394, ISSN: 0306-2619Blue hydrogen may become important to achieve decarbonisation targets. Yet, the uncertainty and aggregated impact of methane leakage rate and carbon dioxide capture rate on the value of blue hydrogen from a whole systems perspective has not been investigated. Our study focuses on the impact of the dual influence of these variables in an energy system model of the United Kingdom (UK). We incorporate practical ranges for methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate and analyse their impact by formulating a novel parameter, termed the Combined Warming Index (CWI). The CWI can be used to assess decarbonisation scenario outputs from energy system models giving insights into their effects on the dynamics of energy system and decarbonisation parameters. Our results suggest that sustainable deployment of blue hydrogen becomes threatened at a carbon capture rate of 85 % and across the range of methane leakage rates of 0.125 %, 0.5 %, 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %. At a carbon capture rate of 90 %, and methane leakage rates at 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %, blue hydrogen is not significantly deployed to 2050. Methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate are key parameters for the success of blue hydrogen as a low-carbon hydrogen option, and although carbon capture rate is the more critical parameter, methane leakage rate is also important but becomes a secondary concern in natural gas supply chains with low fugitive emissions. The outcome of our research can contribute to framing relevant policy for the application of CCS technology as society seeks to attain low-carbon economy aims.
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Journal articleOluleye G, McLaughlin S, Steen E, et al., 2025,
Blending interventions to achieve green hydrogen cost competitiveness for industrial decarbonisation
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 144, Pages: 1343-1357, ISSN: 0360-3199Industrial decarbonisation can be supported by green hydrogen as a fuel and feedstock, but its cost remains too high to compete with natural gas. In this study, the achievement of cost competitiveness for green hydrogen is examined through a combination of internal interventions, including the reduction of electrolysis costs via waste heat sales to district heating networks and the use of curtailed wind, alongside external interventions such as market-based policies and sustainability-linked bonds. A novel temporal market penetration assessment model has been developed and applied to evaluate the impact of these interventions, both individually and in combination, on achieving cost parity. The methodology has been implemented in a UK case study to assess these dynamics within the energy landscape and policy framework. The findings indicate that cost reductions of 17.5 % can be achieved through hydrogen from curtailed wind, while waste heat utilisation contributes a 24.7 % reduction. Existing policy measures are found to have the potential to lower costs by 39 %. A total cost reduction of 78 % is observed when interventions are blended, with green hydrogen from curtailed wind projected to reach cost parity with natural gas by the mid-2030s under high natural gas price scenarios. The feasibility of blended interventions in facilitating the industrial adoption of green hydrogen is thereby demonstrated.
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Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Assessing a mixed hydrogen economy for resilient net-zero using energy system modelling
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 138, Pages: 1092-1103, ISSN: 0360-3199Low-carbon hydrogen will play a key role in the portfolio of alternative fuels towards climate targets. However, there are gaps in determining how deploying different hydrogen colours and production pathways contributes to achieving climate goals in a jurisdiction, including the economic impact on the energy system, the wider system, and the impact on the final energy mix. This work is the first to perform a detailed analysis of the interrelation between blue hydrogen, green hydrogen (onshore and offshore produced) and other hydrogen colours using an energy system model. Results show that for scenarios where blue hydrogen and green hydrogen are not deployed, green hydrogen is not deployed, blue hydrogen is not deployed, and blue hydrogen, onshore and offshore green hydrogen are deployed, have energy system costs 0.94 %, 0.32 %, 0.06 % and −0.1 % respectively from a reference with the base hydrogen types, blue and only onshore green available. Our optimum 'Mixed Hydrogen Economy' scenario has lowest decarbonisation costs by 2050 when net-zero emissions is achieved and ensures diversity of energy supply to boost energy security. Results emphasise the hydrogen economy is most pronounced when all available and sustainable hydrogen production options are deployed. The findings contribute towards evaluating the impact of hydrogen deployment in low-emissions scenarios.
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Journal articleBrighty A, Staffell I, ApSimon H, 2025,
Impacts of energy system decarbonisation strategies on nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter: a UK case study
, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol: 505, ISSN: 0959-6526International and national air pollution policies depend on air quality modelling to establish future emissions ceilings and targets for improving pollutant exposure. Historically, this modelling has typically relied on singular reference energy scenarios, with air pollutant abatement measures added. Greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions are intrinsically linked through fuel combustion. Decarbonisation and net zero strategies will, therefore, yield significant co-benefits for air pollution. Consequently, the speed and pathway to net zero should be prominently considered within national emissions reduction targets and international renegotiations of air pollution protocols. We illustrate this by modelling the air pollution impacts of four UK ‘Future Energy Scenarios’ from the National Energy System Operator. Spatially apportioned impact factors are used from the UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) to provide rapid and replicable air pollution exposure assessments for UK energy system decarbonisation scenarios. We found that net zero scenarios relying on electrification exhibited 40 % lower nitrogen oxide emissions in 2050 than in a hydrogen-based scenario across energy production and use sectors. This led to 36 % and 15 % lower population exposure to nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter, respectively, which could result in notable health benefits. The choice of energy system decarbonisation pathway has crucial implications for determining which additional air pollution abatement measures would be suitable. Therefore, a holistic approach should be adopted. Policymakers need to understand the net zero strategies being implemented to establish the relevant air pollution abatement options during this era of energy system transition.
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Journal articleJohnson N, Liebreich M, Kammen DM, et al., 2025,
Realistic roles for hydrogen in the future energy transition
, Nature Reviews Clean Technology, Vol: 1, Pages: 351-371 -
Book chapterBalcombe P, Chatenet M, Deseure J, et al., 2025,
Markets and Costs for Hydrogen Electrolysis
, Green Energy and Technology, Pages: 235-256Hydrogen is currently undergoing a renaissance, emerging as a potential key option in the global transition to sustainable energy systems, particularly for decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors. Hydrogen electrolysis has rapidly reduced costs over the last decade, making large-scale hydrogen production more feasible. However, achieving cost competitiveness with conventional energy sources remains a challenge. This chapter investigates the current capital costs of electrolysers, focusing on the impact of technology, manufacturing scale, and regional production differences. Electrolyser costs vary widely, from $200 to $2,500 per kW, depending on the technology and production scale. Further cost reductions are achievable through manufacturing scale-up, technological improvements, and shifting production to regions with lower costs, such as China. The scale and pace of these potential future cost reductions for hydrogen production will determine whether hydrogen becomes a significant component of the coming low-carbon energy economy.
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Book chapterDavid Hart,
Hydrogen, End Uses and Economics
, Encyclopaedia of Energy, Editors: Cleveland, Publisher: Elsevier, ISBN: 9780121764807
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