Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the developing pandemic. This page provides an overview of all publications by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. This includes papers based on the online reports.

Peer reviewed

LF Buss, CA Prete Jr, CMM Abrahim et al. Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic. Science; 08-12-2020, doi:

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Nature Comms; 03-12-2020, doi:

H Fu, H Wang, X Xi et al. Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the firstwave of COVID-19 in mainland China. International Journal of Infectious Diseases; first online 02-12-2020, doi:

KV Parag, CA Donnelly, R Jha, RN Thompson. An exact method for quantifying the reliability of end-of-epidemic declarations in real time. PLoS Computational Biology; 30-11-2020, doi:

M Biggerstaff, BJ Cowling, ZM Cucunubá et al. for the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group. Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19. Emerg Infect Dis. 26-11-2020, doi:

I Hawryluk, TA Mellan, H Hoeltgebaum et al. Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data. Journal of the Royal Society Interface; 25-11-2020, doi:

RM Anderson, C Vegvari, J Truscott, BJ Collyer. Challenges in creating herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection by mass vaccination. The Lancet; 04-11-2020, doi:

S Dellicour, K Durkin, SL Hong et al. A phylodynamic workflow to rapidly gain insights into the dispersal history and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineagesMolecular Biology and Evolution; 03-11-2020, doi:

L Cilloni, H Fu, JF Vesga et al. The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis. EClinicalMedicine; 01-11-2020, doi:

MT Maurano, S Ramaswami, P Zappile et al. Sequencing identifies multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to the New York City region. Genome Research; 22-10-2020, doi:

R McCabe, N Schmit, P Christen et al. Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Medicine; 16-10-2020, doi:

A Daunt, PN Perez-Guzman, J Cafferkey et al. Factors associated with reattendance to emergency services following COVIDÔÇÉ19 hospitalization. Journal of Medical Virology; 12-10-2020, doi:
DJ Weiss, A Bertozzi-Villa, SF Rumisha et al. Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis. The Lancet Infectious Diseases; 21-09-2020, doi:

L Wang, H Ma, KCY Yiu et al. Heterogeneity in testing, diagnosis and outcome in SARS-CoV-2 infection across outbreak settings in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: an observational study. CMAJ Open; 09-10-2020, doi:

A Dighe, L Cattarino, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. BMC Medicine; 09-10-2020, doi:
J Toor, ER Adams, M Aliee et al. Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation. Clinical Infectious Diseases; 28-09-2020, doi:
DS Candido, IM Claro, JG de Jesus et al. Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. Science ; 04-09-2020, doi:

HA Thompson, N Imai, A Dighe et al. SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence on repatriation flights from Wuhan City, China. Journal of Travel Medicine; 24-08-2020, doi: 

NC Grassly, M Pons-Salort, EPK Parker et al. Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 18-08-2020, doi: 
B Flower, JC Brown, B Simmons et al. Clinical and laboratory evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for use in a national COVID-19 seroprevalence survey. BMJ Thorax; 12-08-2020, doi:
C Atchison, P Pristera, E Cooper et al. Usability and acceptability of home-based self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies for population surveillance. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 12-08-2020, doi:

RN Thompson, TD Hollingsworth, V Isham et al. Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. Proceedings of the Royal Society London, 12-08-2020, doi: 

C Poletto, SV Scarpino, EM Volz. Applications of predictive modelling early in the COVID-19 epidemic. The Lancet Digital Health; 10-08-2020, doi:

PN Perez-Guzman, A Daunt, S Mukherjee et al. Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Outcomes of Hospitalized Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Multiethnic London National Health Service Trust: A Retrospective Cohort Study.  Clinical Infectious Diseases, 07-08-2020, doi:

WM de Souza, LF Buss, D da Silva Candido et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. Nature Human Behaviour; 31-07-2020, doi:

X Deng, W Gu, S Federman et al. Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California. Science; 31-07-2020, doi:

CA Prete, L Buss, A Dighe et al. Serial interval distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Brazil. Journal of Travel Medicine, 25-07-2020, doi: 

DS Candido IM ClaroJG de Jesus et al. Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. Science; 23-07-2020, doi:

D Armstrong-James, J Youngs, T Bicanic et al. Confronting and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 Associated Pulmonary Aspergillosis (CAPA). European Respiratory Journal, 23-07-2020,

M Skovdal, MR Pickles, TB Hallettt et al. Complexities to consider when communicating risk of COVID-19. Public Health, 23-07-2020. doi:

B Jeffrey, CE Walters, KEC Ainslie et al. Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK. Wellcome Open Research; 17-07-2020, doi:

AB Hogan, B Jewell, E Sherrard-Smith et al. Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study. Lancet Global Health; 13-07-2020, doi:

FG Sandman, PJ White, M Ramsay et al. Optimising benefits of testing key workers for infection with SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 08-07-2020, doi:

E Lavezzo, E Frachnin, C Ciavarella et al. Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo’. Nature; 30-06-2020, doi:

PT Walker, C Whittaker, OJ Watson et al. The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries. Science; 12-06-2020, doi:  

S. Flaxman, S Mishra, A Gandi et al. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature; 08-06-2020, published online.

M Jit, T Jombart, ES Nightingale et al. Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020. Eurosurveillance; 07-05-2020, doi:

KEC Ainslie, CE Walters, H Fu et al. Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Wellcome Open Research; 28-04-2020, 5:81, doi:

T Jombart, K van Zandvoort, TW Russell et al. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Wellcome Open Research; 27-04-2020, doi:

R Verity, LC Okell, I Dorigatti et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infectious Diseases; 30-03-2020, doi:

D Da S Candido, A Watts, L Abade et al. Routes for COVID-19 importation in Brazil. Journal of Travel Medicine; 23-03-2020, doi:


S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 7 updated report: regional heterogeneity in changes in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the second national COVID-19 lockdown in England. Imperial College London; 15-12-2020, doi: https://doi.org10.25561/84879

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown. Imperial College London; 30-11-2020, access:

S Mishra, J Scott, H Zhu et al. A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom. medRxiv; 27-11-2020, doi:

KV Parag, CA Donnelly. Novel early-warning system for evaluating control and elimination of SARS-CoV-2 reveals alignment of policy with local transmission in New Zealand. medRxiv; 24-11-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. REACT-1 round 6 updated report: high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity with reduced rate of growth in England at the start of November 2020. Imperial College London; 12-11-2020, access:

FA Lovell-Read, S Funk, U Obolski et al. Interventions targeting nonsymptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: COVID-19 as a case-study. medRxiv; 07-11-2020, doi:

KM Mitchell, D Dimitrov, R Silhol et al. Estimating the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on HIV incidence and mortality among men who have sex with men in the United States: a modelling study. medRxiv; 03-11-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity and increasing R number in England during October 2020: REACT-I round 6 interim report. medRxiv; 03-11-2020, doi:

H Ward, G Cooke, C Atchison et al. Declining prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2: a community study of 365,000 adults. Imperial College London; 27-10-2020, doi:

S Riley, K Ainslie, O Eales et al. High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during end September beginning October 2020: REACT-1 round 5 updated report. Imperial College London; 09-10-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during September 2020: interim report of round 5 of REACT-1 study. Imperial College London; 01-10-2020, access:

BA Djaafara, C Whittaker, OJ Watson et al. Quantifying the dynamics of COVID-19 burden and impact of interventions in Java, Indonesia. medRxiv; 02-10-2020, doi: 

M Ragonnet-Cronin, O Boyd, L Geidelberg et al. COVID-19 epidemic severity is associated with timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions. medRxiv; 18-09-2020, doi:

N Arinaminpathy, J Das, T McCormick et al. Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in IndiamedRxiv; 15-09-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in England: detection by community antigen surveillance. Imperial College London; 11-09-2020, access:

EM Volz, V Hill, JT McCrone et al. Evaluating the effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutation D614G on transmissibility and pathogenicitymedRxiv; 01-09-2020, doi:

TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra et al. Subnational analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. medRxiv; 24-08-2020, doi:

H Ward, CJ Atchison, M Whitaker et al. Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults. medRxiv; 21-08-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Ainslie, O Eales et al. Transient dynamics of SARS-COV-2 as England exited national lockdown. medRxiv; 06-08-2020, doi:

NTD Modelling Consortium. The potential impact of programmes interruptions due to COVID-19 on 7 neglected tropical diseases: a modelling-based analysisGates Open Res;  17-07-2020. doi:

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. medRxiv; 14-07-2020, doi:

S Riley, KEC Aindsly, O Eales et al. Community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England during May 2020: REACT study. medRxiv; 11-07-2020, doi:

S Mishra, T Berah, TA Mellan et al. On the derivation of the renewal equation from anage-dependent branching process: an epidemic modellingperspective. ArXiv Quantitative Biology - population and evolution; 30-06-2020, arXiv: 2006.16487 

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China. Wellcome Open Research; 15-06-2020, doi:

BL Jewell, JA Smith, TB Hallett. The Potential Impact of Interruptions to HIV Services: A Modelling Case Study for South Africa. medRxiv; 27-04-2020, doi:  

CJ Atchison, L Bowman, C Vrinten, et al. Perceptions and behavioural responses of the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional survey of UK Adults. medRxiv; 03-04-2020, doi:   

N Imai, KAM Gaythorpe, S Abbott  et al. Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19. Wellcome Open Research; 02-04-2020, 5:59, doi:

E Volz, H Fu, H Wang et al. Genomic epidemiology of a densely sampled COVID19 outbreak in China. medRxiv; 19-03-2020, doi:


RM Anderson, TD Hollingsworth, RF Baggaley, R Maddren, C Vegvari. COVID-19 spread in the UK: the end of the beginning? The Lancet, 03-08-2020; doi:

I Megiddo, J Nonvignon, R Owusu et al. Fairer financing of vaccines in a world living with COVID-19. BMJ Global health, 14-07-2020; doi:

A Broadbent, D Walker, K Chalkidou et al. Lockdown is not egalitarian: the costs fall on the global poor. The Lancet, 19-06-2020; doi:

A Daunt, PN Perez-Guzman, F Liew et al. Validity of the UK early access to medicines scheme criteria for Remdesivir use in patients with COVID-19 disease. Journal of Infection, 20-06-2020; doi:

LC Okell, R Verity, OJ Watson et al. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity? The Lancet; 11-06-2020, doi:

R Verity, LC Okell, I Dorigatti et al. COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data – Authors' reply. The Lancet; 28-05-2020, doi:

Online reports

E Volz, S Mishra, M Chand et al. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data. Imperial College London; 31-12-2020,

ES Knock, LK Whittles, JA Lees et al. The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions. Imperial College London; 22-12-2020, doi:

JC D’Aeth, S Ghosal, F Grimm et al. Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England. Imperial College London; 10-12-2020, doi:

OJ Watson, N Abdelmagid, A Ahmed et al. Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, SudanImperial College London; 01-12-2020, doi:

HA Thompson, A Mousa, A Dighe et al.  SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Imperial College London; 27-11-2020, doi:

KAM Gaythorpe, S Bhatia, T Mangal et al. Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility. Imperial College london; 25-11-2020, doi: 

D Haw, P Christen, G Forchini et al. DAEDALUS: An economic-epidemiological model to optimize economic activity while containing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Imperial College London; 16-11-2020. doi:

R McCabe, MD Kont, N Schmit et al. Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries. Imperial College London; 16-11-2020, doi:

D Haw, GForchini, P Christen et al. COVID-19 How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Imperial College London; 16-11-2020, doi:

NF Brazeau, R Verity, S Jenks et al. COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence. Imperial College London; 29-10-2020, doi:

AB Hogan, P Winskill, OJ Watson et al. Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine. Imperial College London; 25-09-2020, doi:

M Monod, A Blenkinsop, X Xi et al. Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States. Imperial College London; 17-09-2020, doi:

OJ Watson, M Alhaffar, Z Mehchy et al. Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria. Imperial College London; 15-09-2020, doi:

H Fu, X Xi, H Wang et al. The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China. Imperial College London; 03-07-2020, doi:

MAC Vollmer, S Radhakrishnan, MD Kont et al. The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study. Imperial College London; 01-07-2020, doi:

G Forchini, A Lochen, T Hallett et al. Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020. Imperial College London; 18-06-2020, doi:

R McCabe, N Schmit, P Christen et al. Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. Imperial College London; 15-06-2020, doi:

P. Nouvellet, S Bhatia, A Cori et al. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Imperial College London; 08-06-2020, doi: 

A Dighe, L Cattarino, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions. Imperial College London; 29-05-2020, doi:

B Jeffrey, CE Walters, KE Ainslie et al. Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK. Imperial College London; 29-05-2020, doi:

HJT Unwin, S Mishra, VC Bradley et al. State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States. Imperial College London; 21-05-2020, doi:

P Winskill, C Whittaker, P Walker et al. Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries. Imperial College London; 12-05-2020, doi:

TA Mellan, HH Hoeltgebaum, S Mishra et al. Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil. Imperial College London; 08-05-2020, doi:

MAC Vollmer, S Mishra, HJT Unwin et al. Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios. Imperial College London; 04-05-2020, doi:

AR hogan, B Jewell, E Sherrard-Smith et al. The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Imperial College London; 01-05-2020, doi:

E Sherrard-Smith, AB Hogan, A Hamlet et al. The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa. Imperial College London;01-05-2020, doi:

PN Perez-Guzman, A Daunt, S Mukherjee et al. Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study. Imperial College London; 29-04-2020, doi:

NC Grassly, M Pons-Salort, EPK Parker, PJ White et al. Role of testing in COIVD-19 control. Imperial College London; 23-04-2020. doi:

P Christen, J C D’Aeth, A Løchen et al. Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic. Imperial College London; 17-04-2020. doi:

P Pristerà, V Papageorgiou, M Kaur et al. Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective. Imperial College London; 03-04-2020. doi:   

S Flaxman, S Mishra, A Gandy et al. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London; 30-03-2020. doi:

PGT Walker, C Whittaker, O Watson et al. The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. Imperial College London; 26-03-2020 doi:

KEC Ainslie, C Walters, H Fu et al. Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment. Imperial College London; 24-03-2020. doi:

C Atchison, L Bowman, JW Eaton et al. Public Response to UK Government Recommendations on COVID-19: Population Survey, 17-18 March 2020. Imperial College London; 20-03-2020. doi:  

NM Ferguson, D Laydon, G Nedjati-Gilani et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College London; 16-03-2020. doi:  

K Gaythorpe, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Symptom progression of COVID-19. Imperial College London; 11-03-2020. doi:

H Thompson, N Imai, Amy Dighe et al. Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights. Imperial College London; 09-03-2020. doi:

S Bhatia, N Imai, G Cuomo-Dannenburg et al. Relative sensitivity of international surveillance. Imperial College London; 21-02-2020. doi:  

E Volz, M Baguelin, S Bhatia et al. Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2. Imperial College London; 15-02-2020. doi:   

I Dorigatti, L Okell, A Cori et al. Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV). Imperial College London; 10-02-2020. doi:   

N Imai, A Cori, I Dorigatti, M Baguelin, CA Donnelly, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. Imperial College London; 25-01-2020. doi:

N Imai, I Dorigatti, A Cori, CA Donnelly, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. Imperial College London; 22-01-2020. doi:     

N Imai, I Dorigatti, A Cori, S Riley, NM Ferguson. Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China. Imperial College London; 17-01-2020. doi: